Werewolf Lite CLXXXVII: 2001, A Space Odyssey

[Kaetje]

Vote for now:

Lord Strange
Cause TT wanted us to.

 

[randakar]

Well, looks like Thistle came through for us.


Vote Lord Strange


Let's see if his other suspect is also a wolf.

(edit: Yes, I talked with Kaetje about this one )

 

[Yoenit]

So, yesterdays strange bandwagon was not driven by wolves, but by the good guys. Would have sworn it was the other way around. Well done.

Somebody should probably analyze his voting yesterday, but I don't think you can much out of it as he was shifting around like crazy. For now I suppose his second suspect is as good as any I have. (yes, this is me jumping on a bandwagon)

Vote Strange

 

[the_hdk]

I dislike this voting all on strange here

we got a wolf, there should be more info out there than just blindly follow tt again?

 

[jonti-h]

I dislike this voting all on strange here

we got a wolf, there should be more info out there than just blindly follow tt again?

I'm every bit as much in favour of lynching Tories as around half the country is, but we do need evidence for it. The speed with which the tank of musicians got going is scary - either the wolves know the game is up on him, or they are seeking to railroad him. That or it's sheeple voting him because TT said so.

Has anyone tried to save D previously?
Was there a swing away from him at any point?
Does his nervousness about the vote switching hold any clues?

 

[randakar]

I'm every bit as much in favour of lynching Tories as around half the country is, but we do need evidence for it. The speed with which the tank of musicians got going is scary - either the wolves know the game is up on him, or they are seeking to railroad him. That or it's sheeple voting him because TT said so.

Sheeple, mostly. I talked about it with Kaetje and we sorta agreed LS might be our best suspect.
I don't know about younit following us though.

Has anyone tried to save D previously?
Was there a swing away from him at any point?
Does his nervousness about the vote switching hold any clues?

Nervousness? It sounded more like annoyance to me.
To be fair, for a wolf that must have been a rather frustrating thing

Anyway, these are good questions. I'll have to go read back to find answers to them, I guess.

 

[randakar]

You're wrong, and voting me because you disagree? Go jump in the lake.

Vote Lord D.

The whole point, which the ape-creatures of the Indus can see, is that nobody knows when the vote swaps stop. Therefore, you don't want to risk a packmate by putting them in the lead. It really is very simple.

Your activity, or lack of it yesterday, screams "wolf" to TT, and also to me. You knew what was happening, and decided to keep out of it, so you would not be implicated in hanging a villager. Classic wolf tactic.

Well, that's one person cleared.

Like Randakar, I also find some substance to the cases against Lord_D and LS, however unlike him, I don't mind hopping on the bandwagon and throwing my weight on him, so.

Vote Lord_D

By the way, I see there's a person missing on the people-who-only-voted-once-and-are-thus-clearly-baddies-list: Eternaly_lost. He only voted for walrus, and no one else. Today he jumped in, saw someone not in his pack being ganged and jumped on him. Clearly a baddie, that you for some reason missed.

*Ch- ch- ch- changes. Turn and change your vote!

Unvote cuthuthulu, Vote eternaly_lost

This is *interesting*. As in - look at the timing here. EL is completely bandwagoning Lord_D, Lord_D is voting back.

At this point in time Lord_D's chances don't look too good. Does this clear EL, or is this a sellout?

I really don't understand the case against the Lords. Most people are rather inactive on day one in most games. Except for some silly banter and maybe some RP. Yesterday was quite unusual in it;s activeness. That the Lords thought it wasn't useful to jump in that fray doesn't make them wolves? It doesn't make them villagers either, but still, I don't think they're the best lynch at this point.

That one turned out quite wrong. Right now I think she's not a wolf, but I'm not the most objective person around when it comes to her so I'll put it up anyway.

And then there's this:

My god. How has Thistlewolf persuaded you all?

Just because he post long answers doesn't mean there is anything but stupidity behind them. That and obfuscation of his suspected evilness.

My current suspects are TT, randakar, possibly jonti-h and maybe Kaetje. Only TT I am feel at all certain on. (note this is gut feeling, not vote analysis.)

LS defending his packmate, or just a villager with no clue?
Dunno to be honest. You'd think he would try to stay out of it, if he was a wolf.

when is the deadline today? :s

anyway on a 2nd though I think lord_d might be a good candidate. He seems a bit too eager and became a bit panicked when under attack by jonti.

so who's with me for a swing of votes on him? ala aok?

unvote losty

vote lordy

What hdk proposed was not really an AOK style vote swing, of course.
I wonder what the count was at the time. Lord D had a lot of votes already ..



Unvote Lord Strange
Vote yoenit


(I'll continue this in a bit - Yoenit jumped on a bandwagon or two in places, will have to elaborate)

edit:

So, we have Lord D steadily in the lead for not being active enough on day one... I don't buy it. Not adding my vote to this bandwagon until some better reasoning is provided. I do need to get my vote awat from Cuthy though, he answered my question a while ago.

Unvote Cuthy, Vote hdk
I think Kaets arguments against hdk have some merit, his behaviour was odd on day one.

Lordy (4)...jonti, Cuthy, Losty, TT
hdk(3)...Kaetje, Randy, yoenit
Losty (2)...hdk, Lordy
TT...Strange

So he goes and joins the countermovement, pushing hdk up against Lord_D.


Looking at this, it seems to me that either of EL's or hdk's votes could have been sellouts. Jonti and cuthuthulu seem clean. hdk and yoenit can not both be packmates of LD's, but one of them can be.

Probable villagers:
jonti-h
cuthuthulu

Undecided
Kaetje
EL

Suspect:
LS
Yoenit
the_hdk

 

[Yoenit]

Like I said, I did not trust the bandwagon on Lord D. I still don't actually, look at the voting yesterday and tell me that is not weird. I really thought it was wolf driven, but I guess I was totally wrong about that. I did indeed want to bring somebody closer to Lord D and there were two possible options: hdk and eternaly lost. However, if I was a wolf I would have picked eternaly lost instead of hdk for these reasons:

- eternaly had already voted on lord D, hdk did not. He could still vote on Lord D to save himself (which he did later on btw).
- Lord D, my supposed packmate, was already voting on eternaly lost at the time. Although he switched several times he never went to hdk. Surely I would have coordinated it with him?

The reason I voted hdk was that I found him suspicious (still do), while I had absolutely nothing against eternaly lost. If think I am a wolf, feel free to lynch me. It will just bring the village one day closer to parity.

edit: I am pretty sure there is one wolf that sold out Lord D pretty quickly and voted on him, while the other main suspect is Lord Strange.

 

[Kaetje]

I tried to save Lord D >.<

Mostly because I didn't really understand why he was being voted on.

When I look at the people not voting D yesterday :

TT -2- LS, Lord_D,
hdk -3- Kaetje, Randy, yoenit,

I really think Randy is a villager, he is way to open about everything to me. He doesn't try to hide anything on his computer.
Yoenit is new and inexperienced, I'd feel bad voting him.
Kaetje: is me.
LS: only other votable suspect at this point I think. Unless we go look at the people voting 3rd, 4th or 5th on LD. Which would be EL and hdk (and TT, but he's dead and a villager).



So in general, my voting options are:
EL
LS
hdk

Not gonna vote hdk for a third day in row, people might start to think I had a vendetta.
EL is a woman, we gotta stick together
so my vote is on LS.

 

[Yoenit]

Yoenit is new and inexperienced, I'd feel bad voting him.

Greatly appreciated, but please don't. If I act suspicious, vote on me and get me lynched. Protecting me for no other reason that being new will just get me lynched early in the next game, as I will have learned nothing.

There is also the more immediate problem this might convince people that we are packmates.

 

[randakar]

I tried to save Lord D >.<

Mostly because I didn't really understand why he was being voted on.

That's what you said, yes.

I really think Randy is a villager, he is way to open about everything to me. He doesn't try to hide anything on his computer.

.. *now* I get why you were so suspicious of me in the previous Lite game, before I outed myself as a scanned villager..

Yoenit is new and inexperienced, I'd feel bad voting him.
Kaetje: is me.
LS: only other votable suspect at this point I think. Unless we go look at the people voting 3rd, 4th or 5th on LD. Which would be EL and hdk (and TT, but he's dead and a villager).

That about sums things up nicely, I think.

EL is a woman, we gotta stick together
so my vote is on LS.

EL is a what?!?
That's news to me ..
.. and there's a suspicious reason for not voting someone if I've ever seen one.

 

[Kaetje]

I thought she was at least. Or my memory fucked me up.

To be honest I don't mind voting EL instead of LS, if people think (s)he's a better lynch.
I'm sticking to either one of those for today though, unless someone brings new information to the table.

 

[Yoenit]

Unofficial vote count, ??:?? hourse from the deadline (EUROO7 when is the deadline?)

Lord Strange (2): Kaetje, Yoenit
Yoenit: Randy

n.v.: Jonti, Hdk, Cuthy, Losty, Strange

 

[Cuthuthulu]

I'm not very good at analysis but I'll give it a shot.

the_hdk: I suspect he may be a wolf, however he seems to consistently be brought up for bandwagon on both days. If he is a wolf (I'm starting to doubt that) that would have to suggest that his other packmate is really bad at swaying votes. Right now I'm leaning towards not.

Lord Strange: Voted for Thistle last night. Seems rather wolfish right now as he was the only other besides Lordy to go after him. On the other hand as a wolf that wouldn't be a very smart thing as that would instantly draw once Lordy was linched. It is possible he was just a pissed off villager who was angry at being accused by Thistle. Will have to investigate further.

Cuthuthulu: Extremely handsome and probably not a wolf (I'm certain of it actually)

Jonti: Most likely not to be a wolf in my opinion. Lead the charge against Lord D even well before Thistle came in. IMO most likely out of all of us to be a villager.

Kaetje: I really don't know. She seems sweet and innocent but did try to draw attention away from the lords. Also holds randakar leash.

randakar: One of the more active members I'm on the fence about him. Kaetje holds his leash. Must investigate further.

yoenit: Not overly suspicious but would fit my theory that the wolves are inexperienced.

Eternaly_Lost: Along with hdk this is the second other person I suspect may be a wolf but voted anyway to draw off suspicion. We haven't heard much from her either.

Told you I was terrible at analysis.

I think I will wait for things to develop before a dive in head first and vote.

 

[Eternaly_Lost]

Looking at who is left and how last day vote went, I come up with this.

Lordy (4)...jonti, Cuthy, Losty, TT
hdk(3)...Kaetje, Randy, yoenit
Losty (2)...hdk, Lordy
TT...Strange

Unlikely wolfs: jonti-h, Cuthuthulu. Either of them could have moved their vote off Lord D with out drawing much attention to save him.

potental but unlikely wolfs: The-hdk; Simple reasoning, he has a vote with Lord D right now.

More likely wolfs yoenit, Strange. I can see yoenit having thrown his vote to try and save a packmate, and Strange voting for TT is rather interesting.

Not to sure about right now:
Kaetje, Randy.

---

Well, enough of that, I am going to throw my vote on Lord Strange for now.

Vote Lord Strange

 

[Eternaly_Lost]

I should add that the fact that Yoenit has voted already for Lord Strange would make me more certain he is a wolf if Lord Strange is. There is only three wolfs, and we got one, so the last two are looking for a way to hide.

Throwing a vote this early in the day on a packmate would be rather smart to do, more so when the person who finished the lynch on the other one also marked them for lynching before they where hunted at night.

I think the reason why they hunted TT was they thought he was the Seer, having named two wolfs and wanted to make certain the third would not be found.

 

[Kaetje]

Kaetje: I really don't know. She seems sweet and innocent but did try to draw attention away from the lords. Also holds randakar leash.

randakar: One of the more active members I'm on the fence about him. Kaetje holds his leash. Must investigate further.

*giggle* First time I´ve succesfully managed to leash him in a WW game

 

[Kaetje]

*giggle* First time I´ve succesfully managed to leash him in a WW game

Btw, it would be quite a succesful way for him to hide wolfishness I guess. Hm.

 

[randakar]

*giggle* First time I´ve succesfully managed to leash him in a WW game

Don't worry, that leash of yours is not that well fastened.
Besides it's a two way street anyway - it seems you're following me around as much as the other way

Btw, it would be quite a succesful way for him to hide wolfishness I guess. Hm.

Am I that good at manipulating you, though?

 

[Yoenit]

More likely wolfs yoenit, Strange. I can see yoenit having thrown his vote to try and save a packmate

Believe, I would have gone for you if I had been trying to save Lord D, as it would have had a much better chance at succeeding (see my earlier post).
I may be inexperienced, but I am not that stupid. If I was a wolf I would not implicate myself without a real chance of success.

I am going out now till 10 CEST now. So if there is early deadline (bad EUROO7!) I will not be around for it. Please don't lynch me, for I am not a wolf.