Oh dear. When I walked home late last night from the local bar, Randakar already messaged me that I should grab popcorn before reading the thread. I decided not to go read it at that moment, but just go for bed, and read it at work. Which is now.
Mum: I was still reading, you wake up and go sit with your computer. I wake up and first have to travel to work (which didn't work that well today, since the train decided to have a brakedown (deliberate misspelling, as he had problems with the brakes system
)
I literally just had to save myself and getting me back on par with boris was the best way to my survival. I dont like TIEs this early on but i had no choice, lucky randakar switched as we would of had three dead villagers on our hands. Make of me what you will but surly for the time being i am safe to say i have been run up. Now lets look to the future - top suspects:
Dirkje - Has been active, but in the process made very aggresive votes towards now known villagers and been activly pursuing tie's since day one, a risky stratagy for a wolf but not one i would put pastt a relative newcomer who may not know the tell tale signs.
Hipp0 - first game, not one we can analysis for previous behaviour but has certainly been voting suspiciously with last minute votes switches, in truth this can be put down to over enthusiasm.
And as always
The quietens - Trespoe, Rysz, Jonti there maybe villagers in there for sure bit ill put money on at least one of them being a wolf. A sneaky silent wolf.
I haven't been quiet. I may not have had many posts, but those I made were good posts.
Also, you don't like ties this early on? When do you like ties? At the end of the day? I'd say that if there are ties (and there will allways be, because otherwise you can never switch to another frontrunner), I'd rather have them sooner than at the last 5 minutes or so.
i like a personale massage, with whip cream?
I'm not sure if having both my parents in the game is that good an idea
We should all trust Ironhead.
Indeed, except when he isn't trustworthy.
That has to be the best line of defense ever.
Well, he is a major, so i would say he would know how to build a line of defense
i have read everything, even twice, because when i read the last post of trespoe (443) . i did think: huh? i did not read that AOK uses this nasty words, so i read it again, and indeed i did not find AOK saying words with ** in it. The first quote i never find anywhere, the second quote a bit altered, the 3d quote was real.
so trespoe, i think that is a mean thing to do. AOK may be making "fake outings" but you are making fake quotes.
And now I have read everything, but the second thing to do is making sense of all of this. I will try to do that when i am eating my breakfast.
But my first conlusion is:
you are all weirdo's! this is supposed to be a nice game. I think i will go work in my garden instead. Kill some plants.....
The 1st quote was from Randakar's "baby" game. And yes, AOK really said that, but I think he was a bit annoyed at that time. (as I imagine he was yesterday evening).
That sounds like a stupid thing to do as a wolf, doesn't it?
For a scanned villager, doing what I am doing makes sense though.
So, which version do you think people will buy? That I am a suicidal wolf, or that my story is true?
Voting-wise there isn't much difference, but then again, voting doesn't always say so much nowadays.
Argument-wise I am leaning towards Randakar, especially combined with:
Order of action-wise. Yesterday Randakar indeed told me (not directly, but later in the conversation) that he was a scanned villager (and that he told AOK). After the deadline, AOK did an uncharateristic early outing, with some excuse, which he showed to be false, since he still got online after that. This also supports Randakar.
Now for the possibilities:
Let AOK = Wolf, then he would have known he would get scanned sooner or later (since he was already quarreling with Randakar, who seemed to be part of the JL). He knows that a pre-emptive strike is the best defense. AOK also knows that a fake outing like this can have effect for days on end, and he knows that he has a strong influence on the village. Lynching trespoe would show he was lied to, and he would give us the name of the one who lied to him (just pick another random name out of the hat). That person would ofcourse also be a villager, we are at parity and the complete wolf pack would have won. So at this point of the game, AOK would be able to pull this off without getting lynched! (and there is always the chance the village goes ballistic and does not lynch trespoe, randakar or aok, but someone other completely, because it can't make up its mind who to believe). In this case, Randakar is a villager, part of a truthful JL, and his actions are logical.
Only solution for the village in this case is to lynch AOK, any other lynch will allow AOK to continue to hoodwink the village.
Now Let AOK = Villager and Randy = Villager. Randakar gets a PM from someone claiming to be the seer. Someone different than the seer that contacted Randakar (at least a day earlier). This AOK-seer already had a wolf scanned, and asked AOK to do an early outing (why? it's unusual, and I remember various people commenting on the earliness of seer-outings just a couple of hours before the deadline in a previous game). Randakar's contact claimed to have scanned AOK this night, and told him. In this case there is no way the village could learn the thruth today, since both spokespersons will believe they are the true spokesperson (it's almost 2 clashing religions
). Lynching either JL-targets would show whether that specific JL to be the true JL. However, lynching AOK would mean one of the two JLs to loose their spokesperson. Lynching the spokesperson will not tell anything, since they could still be lied to, and would not give the village further information. Remind that lynching one of the JL-targets could still result in the wrong lynch, in which case we have a worthless day tomorrow lynching the other one.
Let Randy = Wolf. First of all, an experienced wolf would not point to his packmates too obvious. He defends trespoe here by doing a counter-attack (a very, very unusual step of action for a wolf, whether trespoe is a packmate or not). Also he told the village he claimed to several people (including AOK and me) that he was a scanned villager. That is also a risky thing for a wolf to do. It means he has contact with half the village (6 players+himself), of the 12 alive. It also means 3 villagers, out of 6. He has a 50% chance of accidentally hitting the real seer, who would scan him immediately. AOK claims Randakar knows this risk, and I think AOK is right on that point. I do think that would mean that Randakar would not even take that risk, while AOK believes that would result in Randakar taking counter-action. Ofcourse telling 3 players out of 11 (if Randakar is a villager), of which 4 wolves, that you are a scanned villager could be risky as well, or not if the wolves are going after the seer anyway. No, I just don't think Randakar would do something as this if he were a wolf. He would just follow the JL outing, and vote trespoe. How would it go if he were a wolf and try it? He could get lynched straight-away. Trespoe could get lynched. If he was a wolf, Randakar is sure to be next. If trespoe is not a wolf, the village would go after AOK's false contact, resulting in Randy's pack winning on parity. This would also happen if Randakar didn't make a counter-attack. Since he did, this scenario is highly unlikely. AOK could (perhaps) be lynched, shown to be a villager (this scenario has randakar as wolf), resulting in the lynch of Randakar. I think this whole scenario (randakar being a wolf) highly unlikely, since it is him who made the counter-outing.
So, Randakar is most probably a villager, and AOK could be both.
1) If AOK is a wolf, we'd better lynch him straightaway, or parity will be unavoidable.
If AOK is a villager,
2) we could still believe Randakar's JL, and lynch AOK.
2a) If that turned out wrong, we know AOK is right, and lynch trespoe tomorrow, the seer (if still alive) has time to find a new spokesperson.
3) If we do believe AOK's JL, we lynch trespoe.
3a) If that turned out wrong, we know Randakar is right, and lynch AOK, and the spokesperson (if unhunted) is still alive).
Conclusion: regarding spokespersons, it is safest to lynch trespoe, but a possible outcome of that requires a steadfast village against AOK, or we will have parity.
Since I do not trust the village in that, it is safest to just lynch AOK now. We might loose a spokesperson, but that is less worse than losing at parity.
Vote AOK. 11
