Not necessarily. Vote switches happen too frequently in Paradox WW...
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Not necessarily. Vote switches happen too frequently in Paradox WW...
a) It hasn't been a 1 ten times in a row. I was a wolf in a Lite game 4 games back, you see ;-)
b) This post of yours proves that you suck at math. Sure, it -sounds- logical, but the previous 9 rolls are completely irrelevant to the outcome of the 10th roll. That's why it's called "random".
(Why I even bother to reply to this is beyond me. I am not a wolf. Simples.)
Well, how many wolves do we have in each game? Something like 1/3, 1/4 right? Statistically, everyone should be a wolf every fourth game then. I am well aware of the fact that this isn't always the case, but from a purely statistical standpoint it works. At least in my head.
I think this is correct at least. There have been way to many graphs lately...
If everyone would be a wolf every 4rd game every game would end with the village lynching everyone who hadn't been a wolf in 4 games. That would be a) boring and b) boring and c) defeat the entire purpose of werewolf.
And d) it'd be boring.
Randy - no, it's not like anyone is a good candidate. Maybe I'm voting a wolf, maybe I'm voting the seer.
Also, statistically, there is a chance of number of wolves/number of players that any player is a wolf. In a perfect world that doesn't change depending on whether you've been a wolf recently or not, here, however, there is a chance of humanity scrambling these chances.
So this game, the chance that someone is a wolf is 3/13(or 2/13), the chance that they are a seer is 1/13 and the chance that they are a villager is 9-10/13
Also, statistically, there is a chance of number of wolves/number of players that any player is a wolf. In a perfect world that doesn't change depending on whether you've been a wolf recently or not, here, however, there is a chance of humanity scrambling these chances.
So this game, the chance that someone is a wolf is 3/13(or 2/13), the chance that they are a seer is 1/13 and the chance that they are a villager is 9-10/13
If everyone would be a wolf every 4rd game every game would end with the village lynching everyone who hadn't been a wolf in 4 games. That would be a) boring and b) boring and c) defeat the entire purpose of werewolf.
And d) it'd be boring.
But it's still statistically right!
What now? If there is a 1/4 chance of being a wolf every game, then statistically you would be a wolf every 4th game. It won't happen in reality, but now we're talking statistics.
Well statistically, you wouldn't be a wolf every fourth game, you would be a wolf in 25% of all games, but not necessarily every fourth game.
True. Something that might factor in here is that I prefer to be a villager. Something in the nature of the beast, I enjoy the analysis and if you're a wolf analysing the game is a bit non-interesting.
Besides, I don't like lying to people. :/Since that is a known fact it may affect the statistics.
Uhm, 3/13? Do you know how many wolves there are in this game? Because I don't ..
That's the same logical fallacy again. Just because the odds says 1/4rd of all Lite games you are a baddie, doesn't mean the sequence cannot be "4 games a wolf, then 12 games a villager". In fact, that is just as likely as any other random distribution.
edit: Not to mention that "16 games a villager" is also a perfectly possible outcome..
Sigh.
I see that my brain and I are not on the same page today.
Unvote randakar
Go, random.org!
Vote Najs
...
I see that my brain and I are not on the same page today.
Unvote randakar
Go, random.org!
Vote Najs
...
3 hoursish
najs 3: adamus, najs, the split
enk 2: reis, drxav
split 1: trespoe
guy 1: el
rand 1: xeno,
xeno 1: rand
adamus 1: enk
drxav 1: boris
el 1: ese
updated for missed vote
NV~ guy
If this game also ends in the first update I am retiring from gming lite
najs 3: adamus, najs, the split
enk 2: reis, drxav
split 1: trespoe
guy 1: el
rand 1: xeno,
xeno 1: rand
adamus 1: enk
drxav 1: boris
el 1: ese
updated for missed vote
NV~ guy
If this game also ends in the first update I am retiring from gming lite
Last edited:
Unvote Najs
Vote trespoe
Voting me would be treason as I am the only player that I know isn't a wolf. Also, we have a great field now for a massive tie.
Vote trespoe
Voting me would be treason as I am the only player that I know isn't a wolf. Also, we have a great field now for a massive tie.
Last edited:
Does God play dice?
Edit : Najs, you missed the bold.
It was clearly separated, but sure.
unvote enkhuush
vote esemesas
Sorry jacob, but if this can happen in Paradox WW, it's in one of your games... and I know it is a 100% sure way for the village to win if everyone but me is TIE'd.
vote esemesas
Sorry jacob, but if this can happen in Paradox WW, it's in one of your games... and I know it is a 100% sure way for the village to win if everyone but me is TIE'd.
I know... but even if that plan won't succeed, which is the most likely, the choices that are made may prove useful later in the game.
Also randy, if you want to imply I am protecting enkhuush, let me prove you wrong.
unvote esemesas
vote enkhuush
unvote esemesas
vote enkhuush
100ish minutes
najs 2: adamus, the split
enk 2: drxav, reis
split 1: trespoe
guy 1: el
rand 1: xeno
xeno 1: rand
adamus 1: enk
drxav 1: boris
el 1: ese
trespoe 1: najs
NV~guy
najs 2: adamus, the split
enk 2: drxav, reis
split 1: trespoe
guy 1: el
rand 1: xeno
xeno 1: rand
adamus 1: enk
drxav 1: boris
el 1: ese
trespoe 1: najs
NV~guy