Werewolf Lite CCXV - My Little Werewolf: Analysis is Magic

[snoopdogg]

Snoop may not be a wolf, but it is clear he is not on the side of the village. I personally think he is a wolf.

WTf does that mean?
Substantiate this sabotage shit or GTFO.

Vote snoop

Because not once during the game (yes, I just re-read the entire thread) has he given reasons for his votes. He just says so and so (been me a lot recently) is a wolf, and demands everyone lynch them. Anytime someone asks for reasons he gives none or gives a nonsensical reason. I am guessing he is one of Euro's packmates because I know snoop is capable of more than that and is probably a wolf.

*sigh* Yes. It usually has been you. And you know why.

 

[tamius23]

Snoopdogg, you participated in EURO's deadline shenanigans yesterday and just now. It was clear EURO was a baddie and going along with him -twice- was inadvisably stupid (as a villager)

You're a wolf.

 

[XenomorphII]

Snoopdogg, you participated in EURO's deadline shenanigans yesterday and just now. It was clear EURO was a baddie and going along with him -twice- was inadvisably stupid (as a villager)

You're a wolf.

If you think that then vote for him.

 

[tamius23]

Well even though Xeno is a wolf, his vote counts, so I'll put mine behind him and

Unvote AOK. 11
Vote Snoopdogg

and since big letters worked last time

SNOOPDOGG IS A WOLF

/tamius

 

[tamius23]

If you think that then vote for him.

You ninja'ed me.

 

[XenomorphII]

You ninja'ed me.

You have to have good ninja skills when everyone is out to get you!

 

[snoopdogg]

Snoopdogg, you participated in EURO's deadline shenanigans yesterday and just now. It was clear EURO was a baddie and going along with him -twice- was inadvisably stupid (as a villager)

You're a wolf.

Yes. It was awful of me to break a three-way tie two days ago. I could have have handed the wolves a victory when no villagers were even objecting, but didn't. How very suspicious.
Unvote xeno. Vote Snoopdogg.
I want out of this village.

 

[tamius23]

You're using standard "I-despair-of-this-village-you're-all-such-morons" tactics reminiscent of AOK.

You're a wolf, just die. Take AOK with you.

 

[snoopdogg]

You're using standard "I-despair-of-this-village-you're-all-such-morons" tactics reminiscent of AOK.

You're a wolf, just die. Take AOK with you.

I will. Enjoy your well-earned loss.

 

[tamius23]

I will. Enjoy your well-earned loss.

I've played many games with you, snoop, and I know your tactics.

 

[snoopdogg]

I've played many games with you, snoop, and I know your tactics.

No. If you knew my tactics, you know I would've killed you long ago if I was a wolf. Probably by lynching. Because I knew from day 1 you'd inevitably be trying to get me killed.

 

[AOK. 11]

I will Enjoy your well-earned loss.

He is not going to lose Snoop. EURO taught him well.

If you are innocent snoop, we just need to admit we got punked by EURO and go the gallows with dignity.

 

[snoopdogg]

I'm leaning towards that yes.
I honestly don't think Tami is a likely wolf though.

 

[tamius23]

I've done a lot more analysis this game than I normally do, and with fewer suicidal shenanigans, and I certainly think it's paid off. I had EURO, snoop and AOK on my list for a while, I just hesitated to post it until mid-game or so.

 

[tamius23]

Oh, and, snoop, normally just participating in the deadline run-ups on LS and reis would be enough to get you killed. It'd certainly be enough to get me killed.

 

[snoopdogg]

Oh, and, snoop, normally just participating in the deadline run-ups on LS and reis would be enough to get you killed. It'd certainly be enough to get me killed.

Yes. Nothing more suspicious than breaking a 3-way tie.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

There were a number of things about Reis which led me to the conclusion that he was the most likely suspect. The first was the hunts. Reis is many things, but he is not a coward. He does not tend to just off the most active and dangerous players first. Thus, the hunting pattern was fitting with his philosphy. Second, he had received almost no attention whatsoever. Statistically speaking, this makes him a more likely wolf. Wolves are harder to runup quite simply because there are a smaller number of players willing to do so. Especially in a Seerless game, wolves will tend to stay in the shadows.

Thirdly, and most importantly from my perspective, was what looked to me like positioning on his part. When a player knows the outcome of an update in advance (for example, if a wolf knows an innocent is about to be lynched), that player will often show hints of this inside knowledge through their behavior. Reis seemed to me to be positioning himself to look good based on this knowledge. His support of lynching Xeno, when Xeno was not in the top suspects, seemed to be an attempt to avoid taking any blame for the lynching of an innocent while at the same time setting up a possible target for the following day.

Bottom line: based on the hunts, the total lack of attention he had received and thus the statistical likelihood of his being a wolf, and finally what looked to be positioning on his part hinting at him having inside information that only a wolf could know, I concluded that he was the most likely suspect. When I saw EURO was thinking the same thing, I went with it.

Obviously I was wrong. But I don't just pull this shit out of thin air. And I certainly would not do such a thing as a baddie. Again, there were much easier targets if I wanted to save anyone.

Thank you. Your response will be considered carefully.

Unvote euro. Vote strange.

 

[Lord Strange]

Exactly. Pretty suggestive of wolfish behavior.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

Exactly. Pretty suggestive of wolfish behavior.

Possibly. Wolves aren't usually so brazen, at least not until they're ready to win it. That said, if he had succeeded and if you weren't a wolf, even if we lynched him and found him to be a wolf the last two wolves would just need to get one more villager lynched. Perhaps he was willing to sacrifice himself for the pack, or perhaps he genuinely thought you were a wolf. He still makes a good candidate though, there are too many ways it can go badly for a villager to play with ties now and there were already suspicions.

 

[snoopdogg]

I'm going to keep fighting, however more pragmatic walking to the gallows may be.

Uh, why is AOK not being run up alongside these guys?

After yesterday's madness, it seems clear to me that both EURO and AOK are wolves, and I'm pretty sure snoopdogg is as well. Ponies of this world! Unite behind your goddess! We must root out the evil-doers!

VOTE AOK

This is either horribad obscene logic-twisting villager play, or the move of a wolf deciding to go ahead and be a bit blatant toward the end. A trend which will never go out of fashion and is always a good lead for the village. First, an AOK-snoop-euro pack won yesterday. Or before.
But ignoring that completely, the connection between the three of us, in particular between me and either of them, is only going to be found by people who wanted to see it that way. Me and Euro could be more cogently accused of working together in any recent game, including the one where he was the seer and I was a wolf. The closest you can come to a connection is me voting syber early one day and him following suit. Several players are looking at the strawman of the Reis vote, which anyone paying any attention can see that I wasn't advocating or happy about at all. The actions of everyone else who was on at that time are far more suspicious than mine, in particular xeno and tami who were very happy to watch a three way tie which made no sense happen. I literally can't be a wolf, from that alone, without having kiwi or enkhush as packmates.
Conclusion: Lynching LS in a tie, assuming he's a villager, was a move that could be called... sort of harmful. After a fashion. Maybe. On the off chance you all want to find wolves, look elsewhere.