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A game that goes down to the wire!
Whatever the outcome, gentlemen, this will be interesting to watch. :)

@snoop: Why you weren't lynched 2 days ago is beyond me :p
 
It doesn't, that was just an aside :)



Of course. To be honest there's very little on you, in part due to being a sub, in part due to none of the other wolves getting lynched or even threatened in non-JL run ups, and in part due to good play on your part. To be honest I was originally going to ask for you to be lynched yesterday and snoopdogg today, as I'd look better with your role revealed due to my vote on you and snoopdogg looked bad anyway. But I also knew that I wouldn't be around to defend a case against you yesterday, while the case against snoop didn't need much in the way of defending.

Also, thanks for not hunting me. I know it was a sound decision anyway, but it makes for a novel experience to get past day five as a villager. Even better to be in a one on one cage match with the last wolf, never done that before.

Yeah, yeah, sure...

Now, if Valhalla somehow fails to vote, the village will win, so I am happy. I don't mind taking you down to hell with me. So, you could just surrender with honor, as you've played a good game. I don't particularly care much for wins, as you should know, but perhaps I will grow more fond with a few hard-won games such as this one. Your call.
 
...both of you are shady... :D

but...

VOTE REIS

so I've got a 50/50 chance of saving the village or being horribly mutilated by cultists! Good odds!
 
For sake of completeness, and just in case Valhalla does show up, I will make my case as to why Kiwi is a baddie.

gigau 4: taii (127), malurous (142), randkar (151,156,157), snoopdogg(141,158)
kiwi 3: slinky (137), rendap (132,143), adamus (145)
snoopdogg 2: gigau(122), doombunny (123)
taii 1: steed (130)
randakar 1: tamius (152)
doombunny 1: kiwi (136)

Decisive vote by snoopdogg deciding the tie and saving Kiwi. I think AOK's old maxim would apply to Snoop's action here, ("I would never do that as a wolf!") which means that snoop would take advantage of being overly obvious to get away with it.

Official votecount: deadline

doombunny 6: malurous (198), adamus (187,199), taii (186,200), snoopdogg (195,203), tamius (197,204), doombunny (184,205)
adamus 2: randakar (181), reis/hdk (196)
taii 2: steed (177), kiwi (175,183)
randakar 1: valhalla/slinky(188)

Not voted: Clophiroth

Not strong evidence, but just pointing it out due to Kiwi having accused me of casting doubt over Doom's outing, when he too did not change his vote.
Kiwi also happened to be voting the Seer, and, when Doom got outed, they hunted the other Taii voter, Steed, and then proceeded to hunt Taii next day. It doesn't look like too much of a stretch, does it? First, try to kill Taii by votes, figuring out that he was protected, then hunting Steed, probably figuring it to be Seer Steed + JL Taii, and when Steed came out a villager, hunting Taii.
 
...both of you are shady... :D

but...

VOTE REIS

so I've got a 50/50 chance of saving the village or being horribly mutilated by cultists! Good odds!

You got the ability to do whatever you want. I believe you can miss one vote, still, and this guarantees that you and the village win (although some frown upon this sort of tactic). You can vote yourself, and we all lose. Or you can vote Kiwi, and make your victory greater.

It is quite curious that Kiwi did not recommend you to skip voting, as it is a 100% chance of village win. Perhaps he is not interested in a village win...
 
I think my pack hunted you just to get me killed. I can't think of any other explanation.

:rofl:
Let's talk more about this subject later, shall we?

Well, I was considering that option, but I've already missed a vote.

Uhm, good thing this is not the old school ruleset in that regard then, since the rules I am acquainted with give no leeway to non-voters - not voting means immediate substitution in those rules, and attempting to win by such a strategy would just mean you lose the game .. ;-)
 
:rofl:
Let's talk more about this subject later, shall we?



Uhm, good thing this is not the old school ruleset in that regard then, since the rules I am acquainted with give no leeway to non-voters - not voting means immediate substitution in those rules, and attempting to win by such a strategy would just mean you lose the game .. ;-)

I think everyone can have problems given the specific nature of internet game and can miss a vote. Also not voting is AFAIK legitimate move, isn't it?

EDIT: But not voting when there are just 3 players left would not be allowed in my game. When chips are down, you must pick sides or there is no point in playing.
 
Lite is too small to allow non-voting as a legitimate strategy. If you can't vote everyday (at least a placeholder, but don't make too many of these or else you're letting us know your entire life is a placeholder) then don't sign up.
 
Said it was coming, and here it is. The case for not lynching me, also titled "this game really really[/] sucks for analysis".

As every single confirmed wolf was lynched as part of a JL move, and they weren't even in danger at any point, I'm once again having to rely more heavily on behavioural analysis than I'd like. Fortunately this works out in my favour.

If you go through the thread it's fairly easy to tell that I barely paid attention to the game until the end game. I was too busy doing other things to spend real time here, when as a villager my contribution would be limited and liable to be cut short at any moment by a hunt. See also my last game as a villager, CCXXIV(?), where I was cruising. I simply don't have the energy to put into being a heavily contributing villager when I generally get hunted early. Only when it looked like the wolves would leave me alone did my activity pick up.

As a wolf I get to control my own fate, barring scans. With my game less likely to get cut short, I would have taken an interest from the start. And as a wolf I would never, ever have missed who my pack hunted on day zero:

Vote Suirantes

Half my signup number.



You have a rogue character?

Um...

Vote the_hdk?

As I meticulously read, file, and re-read PMs. So either a villager mistake or a wolf ploy. Could I have been faking it? I don't believe in drawing attention to myself like that when I'm a wolf. I'm sure reis will enlighten you about my overblown reputation as a devious wolf, but if you look at my games I don't use those kind of techniques. Instead, I use analysis and manipulate others into doing my work for me. It would be completely out of keeping with my play style.

"Aha!" you say. "Wouldn't that be the perfect ploy then?"

Well, yes. I can't rule out using it in the future. But I didn't this time. If you look at the rest of my game, it makes more sense as an unattentive villager moment than anything else, because there were no other possible ploys - why put the effort into something that would bring attention to me only to make no advantage of it?

Honest mistake? Or obvious smokescreen from the devious Kiwiwolf? Hmm...

Also note that it's snoopwolf pulling attention to it to try and cast doubt on my status. Doesn't mean much, as we know Doombunny was going at snoopwolf all guns blazing, but often these little musings and non-committal comments are more likely from a wolf about a villager than an attack - they're trying to get something to happen without taking responsibility. And it could have worked.

Nearly forgot to vote :/

Vote doombunny

Just cause. Yesterday's run up wasn't very informative ater all, at least after a quick 2 in the morning glance. The key movers were all acting in self defence.

More evidence of me not paying attention. I think the time stamp on that vote was 2 am. Also note the vote on a confirmed wolf that could have led to his lynching. Again, I'm sure reis can enlighten you as to how bloodthirsty I am about lynching my own packmates. But I only do that when I have a good reason to, and here I only had a vague unease about Doombunny to go on. I'm not that brutal.

I'd be willing to switch to Gigau if you are.

Unvote Taii. Vote Gigau.
Not sure why you're so confident about Kiwi though, tbh.

randakar calls me the most likely villager, and calls for a vote switch off of me onto tamius (a wolf, as it turned out). snoopdogg would rather see the vote stay on me than switch to tamius. He eventually gets randakar to lynch gigau, when randakar didn't really want to. A smart enough move on snoopdogg's part, as he might be able to return to lynch me later. Having a chew toy around is always a nice thing when you're a wolf, and sure enough people came back to me.

Would snoopdogg have done this if I was a wolf as wll as tamius? Maybe. But his reluctance to vote tamius would suggest he'd be more active in going for a switch on to someone else, rather than sitting with me in the lead. Why draw attention to yourself over one wolf and not the other? His move is about protecting tamius, plain and simple.

Note again the attempts to cast doubt on me, without actually taking a lead and letting me be lynched. Someone who genuinely doesn't know is more likely to just go with it and see what happens - when you have inside info, in this case snoopdogg being a wolf, you're more likely to try and weedle things around and manipulate.

Markets are where Kiwis are traded. Towns are where Markets are. Villages are a step down from Towns. Villagers live in Villages. Therefore, Kiwi is a Villager.

Don't even try and argue against my theories.

Of course, this wolf is eager to be contrary to his packmate :laugh:

Two factors.
1) He voted someone who got hunted the day before. Wolves would know who they hunted.
Flimsy argument perhaps, since smart wolves can fake that, but as a rule, they don't.

2) He gets votes on the convoluted premise that because he 'attempts' to look clean he must be a wolf. And then, when he hits the lead there is no movement in the village at all anymore.
Flimsy, wrongheaded argument, and he goes into the lead for it? Classic stupid village move, really.

Thankyou, randakar :) His arguments still bear keeping in mind, especially with him confirmed innocent.

I'd rather vote adamus, tamius or snoopdogg. But you were the only person I had a shot at getting lynched without risking Kiwi in a tie.

:mad: I am not a wolf.
Now we wait..

And this is why snoopdogg wouldn't want to leave the vote on me. Why risk someone else coming along and shifting it on to one of randakar's choices, when 2/3 are wolves? Better to get it where he wanted if he couldn't be sure of keeping it where it was.

So quiet...



Trading in endangered animals is illegal.

6y1nrb.png




Well that was a curious day. Frankly I wouldn't have minded dying, my head isn't in the game, and it would be no worse than Gigau getting lynched. I half wonder if the wolves were out to save me to try and incriminate me and to keep alive a villager who can't vote at deadline to counter snipes.

Vote snoopdogg

Until I can find something better to go off.

And here's the closest thing I have to a trump card. My gut feeling was to trust randakar, partly because of his banter about not getting a role PM. But snoopdogg's vot shift felt odd, even if it did help me. As it turns out he was protecting tamius, but I suggest the other possibility - he wanted to create a connection between us.

This put him in genuine danger. I did shift vote 7 hours later:

New Zealanders never, ever refer to chinese gooseberries as "kiwi". We call them kiwifruit. I didn't even know they were called "kiwi" elsewhere until I started playing werewolf about a year ago.

A kiwi, plural kiwi, is the bird. A Kiwi, plural Kiwis, is the informal demonym.

Unvote snoopdogg
Vote Taiisatai64


Let's get my vote somewhere where it won't be lonely.

But only because no one followed me on to him. It could easily have developed into something, as I did provide a case, and even a flimsy one will attract other votes.

Again, as a wolf I lynch packmates quite happily. It's conceivable that if I were a wolf I would do this to prevent the pack being blown apart by snoopdogg protecting me. But I would never have been so half hearted about it, better to do the job properly if you're going to sell out a packmate. Not to mention that snoopdogg would have known to sacrifice me for his own good the day before.

snoopdogg and I weren't working together. If we were packmates, our strategies would have been directly conficting - him trying to save the pack and me selling him out. I usually communicate pretty well with my packmates when I am a wolf. I wouldn't have let that happen.

Vote Taii

I have my suspicions about Snoopdogg and Taii. May as well go for the one more likely to be lynched.

Very interesting.

By the way, today is the day where a tie is a good thing.

Again I draw attention to a wolf tell. The only reason I didn't swap to Doombunny was because I was still trying to get an idea of his playstyle. Would have been interesting if I had :)

Vote Randakar.
I hear that guy's a wolf.

This is a tangent but... WHAT?! snoopdogg gets contacted by randakar, told to do an outing, instead votes him saying he heard he's a wolf, and then randakar gets eaten that night, and the JL doesn't bat an eyelid?! I see why randakar was surprised snoop lasted so long.

Thought so. Third voter on the wagon, and not by coincidence - he was waiting to see what way the wind blew and said as much. Plus the throw away day one that earned my vote day two. As for why a tie is good on the penultimate day:



Just some helpful tips for future games, Doombunny :) You're off to a reasonable start.

So I think we can clear Taiisatai64, based on Doombunny's wagoning, and Malurous for obvious reasons. I'm, like, totally a villager. Who saw the name in Doombunny's PM? They're quite possibly a wolf, unless he was couting on them not being around until too late. Other than that, we have:

3: tamius23
4: the_hdk as the Bretonnian Lord, Duke Trencavel of Carcassonne
8: Adamus
9: Steed
11: snoopdogg
14: Slinky
16: Clophiroth as the crazy dancing monkey (my Warhammer lore has some serious holes )

And three wolves amongst them.

Who did Valhalla's Call and reis sub in for?

Now we hit end game, and my activity picks up. This normally only happens with me when I sense victory is coming - and why would I think that as a wolf when a packmate was killed and the mouthpiece left unharmed? No, this is me as a villager seeing things starting to go our way after a string of no luck.

Voting me again?

Meh. If you want to leave it to the seer, feel free. But you're gambling that I have the time to make elaborate replies to Doombunny teaching him how to play after the fact purely as an alibi; because as a packmate I'd be better off PMing him the ins and out privately and preferably before it mattered. You're also gambling that I missed who got hunted as a clever ruse.

One of these days I might try that, but it's not now. Surely you can do better looking anywhere except Malurous or maybe Taiisatai.

But it's 4 am and I should try and get some sleep...

Still relevant. Except this time it's 3:30 am :)

Unsure about Kiwi... say, what do you think of lynching Kiwi?

Look at his defense on this page, as well as what randy had to say about him before he died. Plus people have seemed a bit too happy to lynch him or at least that's the sense I got. Doesn't seem like a likely wolf to me...

Same disclaimer as earlier. :p

If you're wondering what dead players who we know are villagers thought, both randakar and Malurous were reluctant to lynch me. Hardly a strong argument from authority, but just giving you an idea since we haven't played together.

Obviously that was before the outing that I was advocating it. If I'd been around post outing, I would have lynched Doombunny on his own. I was already suspicious, hence "very interesting" about his third vote. I wouldn't have bought his counter, as admirable as it was. Of course, you'll have to take my word on that.

And you yourself said it was a good call when it did happen today :p

So 7 players alive? Malurous is clear, I know I'm clear, I'm pretty sure Taiisatai is clear, and the seer makes four. Unless Malurous or Taiisatai are the seer, in which case the wolves will be really kicking themselves...

So Malurous, which of Valhalla's call, reis91, tamius or snoopdogg should we lynch?

Vote reis91

For now. I'll have a go at analysis later... maybe. If I have time. I don't like leaving it all to the JL.

Again I start working to get things finished off. Note that it's Taiisatai I've cleared, so why hunt Steed who might have been lynchable? There was nothing I saw suggesting Steed was a goodie, and if I was a wolf the last thing I'd want is one less lynchable player.

So it's reis and snoop? Well that's easy then.

Vote snoopdogg

All villagers do likewise. It would be nice if the wolves capitulated.

Some notes: We were all wondering why on earth doombunny would say randakar is seer. That's an awfully strange thing for a noob to try and pull. The obvious reason for it was because he'd been passed on the message from snoopdogg, the only one to know. It also explains the hunt on randakar. snoopdogg is an obvious wolf. The doombunny votes can be explained as something he was put up to.

As for reis, like I said it was interesting he got ignored when I put him up, and that it was tamius the wolf bringing up someone else instead.

As for switching off snoopdogg, I made the original vote at 7 pm my time. I happened to be on at 2 am, saw my vote had gained no traction, and decided to shift it to somewhere that it could be analysed. You can hardly call that "quick". I was perfectly happy to leave it there if it had attracted interest - and much like the_hdk/reis, that it didn't is another point against him.

I see that you intend to go down fighting. So be it. Who are you going to hunt? They'll not be too happy about missing out on a win.

If you must hunt somebody, I wouldn't complain if it was me. I've done stuff all this gane, while Malurous is spokesman and Valhalla could do with something for his first game. What do you say, hunt me and try to convince Malurous that Valhalla is the wolf?



There are a lot of approaches that a pack could take to that situation. I don't know what randakar told snoop, you'd have to ask reis for that. But if they suspected he might be seer, or that you were actually unscanned despite what was said, it would make sense to hit him first. The Steed hunt must have been looking for the Seer, something I've learnt my lesson on before - having been overpowered by a JL once too often it's now my policy to kill mouthpieces ahead of looking for the seer.

Come to think of it, I think snoopdogg might have been on to something when he got Doombunny to go after him. I presume that was why you chose him to out Doombunny, thus revealing a JL member to the wolves?

It was worth trying to get a crovax out of you :) So many little landmines for you to step on replying to that, layers wrapped up in layers. The one I was really hoping for was you pointing out that Valhalla is JL, thus implying that you are going to hunt and you've thought about targets. But looks like you played it with a nice straight bat.

And look at me go. Note that I'm the one being proactive and trying to find the wolves, while snoop and reis sat back. And if I were a wolf, why did I go after snoopdogg instead of reis? All it would have done is cost him the chance of winning, without making my job today any easier.



Well that's about it I'm afraid. This game was a bit strange. Still I feel fairly happy that the case against reis is more towards wolf than neutral, while mine is more towards villager. Let's see how this goes.

And hopefully Valhalla votes, with one vote missed already it's a total party kill if he misses again :/
 
That took longer than expected. At least Valhalla has voted, and he chose well.

And yes, non voting is a huge problem in Lite. I prefer out on the first strike, because in situations like this that one missed vote of reis' could have been crucial.
 
These kind of discussions, which can clearly influence the game, would be best held after the game.

Anyway, Telesien has ruled, and I accept his ruling.

Shut up, wolf.
 
That took longer than expected. At least Valhalla has voted, and he chose well.

And yes, non voting is a huge problem in Lite. I prefer out on the first strike, because in situations like this that one missed vote of reis' could have been crucial.

In my defense, Telesien only sent me my role when it was really close to the deadline. I think he should be able to confirm this, as it really has no influence on the game...

And look at me go. Note that I'm the one being proactive and trying to find the wolves, while snoop and reis sat back. And if I were a wolf, why did I go after snoopdogg instead of reis? All it would have done is cost him the chance of winning, without making my job today any easier.

Snoop was burned out, and Malurous was onto him. So, rather than trying to lynch someone that, for all you knew, could actually be in JL with Malurous (with Valhalla used as a decoy to draw hunts), you instead chose to clearly and deliberately move against Snoopdogg, confident that you could, after disposing of Malurous, make a case against me and get Valhalla to cooperate. It was your best shot at winning.

Again I start working to get things finished off. Note that it's Taiisatai I've cleared, so why hunt Steed who might have been lynchable? There was nothing I saw suggesting Steed was a goodie, and if I was a wolf the last thing I'd want is one less lynchable player.

My previous post has an interesting theory about that hunt.

If you're wondering what dead players who we know are villagers thought, both randakar and Malurous were reluctant to lynch me. Hardly a strong argument from authority, but just giving you an idea since we haven't played together.

Randy can be a bit too trusting at times, and I imagine that you would have been PM'ing him to reassure him, something you manage to do fairly well. Still, he apparently didn't trust you enough to have you do the outing, instead contacting Snoopdogg. As for Malurous, he was, at the time, pursuing a flimsy case against me, of his own initiative, or perhaps due to private communication between you two. And I've already shot down that case when you brought it up in your post earlier this day.

There's also the possibility that they suspected you, and tried to mask it to avoid getting hunted by you. Randy contacting Snoop instead of you seems to reinforce this...

Now we hit end game, and my activity picks up. This normally only happens with me when I sense victory is coming - and why would I think that as a wolf when a packmate was killed and the mouthpiece left unharmed? No, this is me as a villager seeing things starting to go our way after a string of no luck.

Why would you think that as a wolf? It's 1 wolf, two villagers. If you can convince the cleared villager to vote me, as he indeed has, you won. It's excellent odds for you as a wolf.

This is a tangent but... WHAT?! snoopdogg gets contacted by randakar, told to do an outing, instead votes him saying he heard he's a wolf, and then randakar gets eaten that night, and the JL doesn't bat an eyelid?! I see why randakar was surprised snoop lasted so long.

Again, I cite AOK's "I would never do that as a wolf!" for a possible explanation.

But only because no one followed me on to him. It could easily have developed into something, as I did provide a case, and even a flimsy one will attract other votes.

Again, as a wolf I lynch packmates quite happily. It's conceivable that if I were a wolf I would do this to prevent the pack being blown apart by snoopdogg protecting me. But I would never have been so half hearted about it, better to do the job properly if you're going to sell out a packmate. Not to mention that snoopdogg would have known to sacrifice me for his own good the day before.

snoopdogg and I weren't working together. If we were packmates, our strategies would have been directly conficting - him trying to save the pack and me selling him out. I usually communicate pretty well with my packmates when I am a wolf. I wouldn't have let that happen.

Don't insult your own intelligence, Kiwi...

And here's the closest thing I have to a trump card. My gut feeling was to trust randakar, partly because of his banter about not getting a role PM. But snoopdogg's vot shift felt odd, even if it did help me. As it turns out he was protecting tamius, but I suggest the other possibility - he wanted to create a connection between us.

I find it, from an external POV, far more likely that Snoop wanted to avert the catastrophe of having two wolves being ran up on the same day.

randakar said:
Two factors.
1) He voted someone who got hunted the day before. Wolves would know who they hunted.
Flimsy argument perhaps, since smart wolves can fake that, but as a rule, they don't.

2) He gets votes on the convoluted premise that because he 'attempts' to look clean he must be a wolf. And then, when he hits the lead there is no movement in the village at all anymore.
Flimsy, wrongheaded argument, and he goes into the lead for it? Classic stupid village move, really.

Randy, you should really know better than this, after a certain Lite where he ran up his packmate, which happened to be me, on a flimsy, wrongheaded argument, purposefully so that the village knee-jerks and lynches someone else.

As I meticulously read, file, and re-read PMs. So either a villager mistake or a wolf ploy. Could I have been faking it? I don't believe in drawing attention to myself like that when I'm a wolf. I'm sure reis will enlighten you about my overblown reputation as a devious wolf, but if you look at my games I don't use those kind of techniques. Instead, I use analysis and manipulate others into doing my work for me. It would be completely out of keeping with my play style.

It's a possibility, but I would be more inclined to challenge your computer-like memory. And you are too good of a wolf to stick with one predictable play style.
 
Part 2

More evidence of me not paying attention. I think the time stamp on that vote was 2 am. Also note the vote on a confirmed wolf that could have led to his lynching. Again, I'm sure reis can enlighten you as to how bloodthirsty I am about lynching my own packmates. But I only do that when I have a good reason to, and here I only had a vague unease about Doombunny to go on. I'm not that brutal.

Not really a dangerous vote, sorry.

Would snoopdogg have done this if I was a wolf as wll as tamius? Maybe. But his reluctance to vote tamius would suggest he'd be more active in going for a switch on to someone else, rather than sitting with me in the lead. Why draw attention to yourself over one wolf and not the other? His move is about protecting tamius, plain and simple.

Doesn't compute.

"this game really really[/] sucks for analysis".


Agreed. And I consider that to be a tribute to the skill of the players, especially that of the wolves.

As a wolf I get to control my own fate, barring scans. With my game less likely to get cut short, I would have taken an interest from the start. And as a wolf I would never, ever have missed who my pack hunted on day zero:

But you don't really show that, as it would then be fairly easy to spot you...