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Official count, day 4, deadline
aedan: 5
SPAMbuca [340]
deathbywombat [352]
Arkasas v2 [353]
ramius3443 [409]
alynkio [395 Spock -> 416]
Alynkio: 3
aedan777 [356]
Spockyt [369]
jeray2000 v2 [354 aedan -> 398]
Spock: 1
Capage [401]
Not voted: 0
aedan: 5
SPAMbuca [340]
deathbywombat [352]
Arkasas v2 [353]
ramius3443 [409]
alynkio [395 Spock -> 416]
Alynkio: 3
aedan777 [356]
Spockyt [369]
jeray2000 v2 [354 aedan -> 398]
Spock: 1
Capage [401]
Not voted: 0
Great. Can't help but to feel doubt here, but I honestly see no other threesome of wolves. Said I would lynch Alynkio if Aedan flipped villager so I should. I'm actually not sure how well Alynkio fits together with Spockyt and Voyager/Jeray.
If it's not those 3, someone made a very convincing alibi vote on Cody. Not all of it clears them, but there's very little to go on the rest I feel.
Vote Alynkio
I'll be off to bed and check if things make sense tomorrow.
If it's not those 3, someone made a very convincing alibi vote on Cody. Not all of it clears them, but there's very little to go on the rest I feel.
Vote Alynkio
I'll be off to bed and check if things make sense tomorrow.
Maybe we should followed Aedan when we had the chance. Something else that stands out to me is that, for a god few minutes before deadline, the possibility of a snipe TIE was very well possible. We've seen the wolves attempt to snipe two villagers for the win recently in other rounds, so how come it didn't happen this time? Is it because the wolves didn't feel like tempting fate, or was it because one of the wolves was actually in contention? Alynkio has been remarkably lucky so far: twice now, he's been one vote away from a lynch, and he has escaped. Not only Aedan, but also Rovsea and Claude voted him at one point. As for packs, I think Alynkio and Spocky are fairly non controversial, but for the third candidate either Spam is putting on a hell of a performance, or a wolf voted Cody on day 1. Or perhaps Arky, who now that I think of it has been almost completely absent.
As an aside note, whoever we decide to lynch today, it MUST be a unanimous vote; we are 4 3 if my math is correct, so any villagers voting someone other then the main candidate puts everyone into jeopardy (!). We also no longer have any confirmed goodies.
VOTE ALYNKIO
As an aside note, whoever we decide to lynch today, it MUST be a unanimous vote; we are 4 3 if my math is correct, so any villagers voting someone other then the main candidate puts everyone into jeopardy (!). We also no longer have any confirmed goodies.
VOTE ALYNKIO
Clemson, SC. The trip from NH (my state) was definitely worth it, but I probably should have left the day after.
The snipe possibility indeed made me ask Alynkio to put down his vote on Aedan. In the offchance Alynkio is/was a villager too, it would have been possible for a wolf to create a tie and we would have lost already.
Because of this reason, I feel it's safe to state this:
In the case Alynkio is a villager, none of the people that voted Aedan yesterday are wolves, because they could have sniped a tie. Votes were 5 vs 3. The people that voted Aedan were:
SPAMbuca [340]
deathbywombat [352]
Arkasas v2 [353]
ramius3443 [409]
alynkio [395 Spock -> 416]
Alynkio and Wombat aside, it would mean all remaining 3 of us, would not be a wolf either. My main problem is that my other 2 main suspects did vote Alynkio yesterday. Would the other 2 wolves have voted Alynkio in the knowledge he would not get lynched anyway? Who else are reasonable wolf candidates? Maybe it's time Arkasas would explain his vote yesterday as he was 103% sure Aedan was a wolf too without much explanation. The reason he got a free pass so far, is because Adam made 1 vote on Cody before he disappeared. Should we keep in mind the possibility both JM and Cody were wolves day 1 after all? Questions to be answered.
So, today is the last day. 3 wolves, 4 villagers remain. I'll do a full breakdown on what I think of everyone in approximate decreasing order of certainty.
Jacksonian Missionary/Capage: Provided the vote that started the ball rolling on Cody day 1. Followed it up by voting SPAMbuca and Jeray before requesting a Sub. I could see a scenario in which Jackson cast what he thought was a safe alibi vote on Cody, then watched with dismay as the case snowballed out of control, but couldn't move without looking mega-shady. Still, I think this is less than likely. Jackson's subsequent reads were good (normal for Jackson), even if wrong about Jeray 2.0. Capage, also no slouch, dissented from the madness and went with the compromise candidate Spock and thus was possibly the only person yesterday to actually keep their vote on a wolf. Pretty clearly Capasonian Missionary is not a wolf.
Adamgerd/Arkasas: Provided the final vote on a wolf day 1, breaking a tie between a wolf and a villager in favor of a wolf. No one has so much as questioned his villagerishness since. Had this vote come from Wombat rather than Adamgerd, I would have been probably grown suspicious about his continued survival after a few days and then begun loudly wondering how Adam/Arky's vote could have been a wolf giving up on a dead packmate and trying to ride the alibi vote to victory. However, the vote did come from Adamgerd, who's basically a total noob, and his 1 voting comment didn't really make much sense. I really have trouble seeing a scheming wolf here. Since Arky took over, Arky has been playing basically how Arky usually plays. On the whole, not much to go on, but I'd really be shocked, and really kind of disappointed if Arkygerd turned out to be a wolf.
Good points in here, despite your vote for me. Unless the pack is Capage/Spock/Jeray, you are indeed correct the wolves could have sniped a tie. Why didn't they? 2 of the extremely likely wolves were already voting me and couldn't move. This leaves Arky (who doesn't seem to have been around), SPAMbuca (who was around and actually encouraged me to switch from Spock to prevent a snipe), and You (taking a break from Warband) as potential snipers. Sniping is a dangerous move, however, and Capage was clearly around to counter-snipe. I'm guessing the wolves decided to play it safe because they were reasonably confident they could string me up today, and it wasn't worth revealing themselves with a potential counter-sniper around. I'd like to think that I survived not entirely due to luck, but at least partly because the case against me wasn't really as strong as Aedan thought it was, and because I've diligently shown up to defend myself every day and have tried to raise good points, even if my conclusions haven't been perfect so far (again, in fairness to myself, other people's haven't been any better). I agree on the need to consolidate. Please, at least consider consolidating on someone other than me!
Spockyt: Voted the seer day 1. As Aedan would undoubtedly mention, his context and timing of his vote are terrible. At the time of his cast, packmate Cody had 2 votes and potential packmate SPAMbuca also had 2 votes. Spock's vote moved Claude into contention with them. Follows up day 2 with a reasonable but ultimately incorrect vote against Jeray and tunnels with it day 3. Suggests Spammie and Ramius, but votes me instead. Could be an attempt to create some distance between each other in the thread given that Aedan had fingered both of them as potential packmates for me. Really not looking good. Capage was willing to go after him yesterday. Maybe today we can get a few more.
SPAMbuca: I've liked SPAMbuca's contributions for the most part, so I feel a little bad, but, under a close analysis, Spammie doesn't really look very good at all and Process of Elimination strongly suggest his wolfhood. Jackson summed up Spammies day 1 behavior pretty well.
People have been going after me for days now. I've now gone over my defense for my day 1 actions twice, but here it is again for the heck of it.
Typing this was exhausting and took way more time than I wanted it to. Time for sleep. More when I wake up. Please reconsider your vote Ramius
I'm willing to stake the game that the following 2 are clear.
Jacksonian Missionary/Capage: Provided the vote that started the ball rolling on Cody day 1. Followed it up by voting SPAMbuca and Jeray before requesting a Sub. I could see a scenario in which Jackson cast what he thought was a safe alibi vote on Cody, then watched with dismay as the case snowballed out of control, but couldn't move without looking mega-shady. Still, I think this is less than likely. Jackson's subsequent reads were good (normal for Jackson), even if wrong about Jeray 2.0. Capage, also no slouch, dissented from the madness and went with the compromise candidate Spock and thus was possibly the only person yesterday to actually keep their vote on a wolf. Pretty clearly Capasonian Missionary is not a wolf.
Adamgerd/Arkasas: Provided the final vote on a wolf day 1, breaking a tie between a wolf and a villager in favor of a wolf. No one has so much as questioned his villagerishness since. Had this vote come from Wombat rather than Adamgerd, I would have been probably grown suspicious about his continued survival after a few days and then begun loudly wondering how Adam/Arky's vote could have been a wolf giving up on a dead packmate and trying to ride the alibi vote to victory. However, the vote did come from Adamgerd, who's basically a total noob, and his 1 voting comment didn't really make much sense. I really have trouble seeing a scheming wolf here. Since Arky took over, Arky has been playing basically how Arky usually plays. On the whole, not much to go on, but I'd really be shocked, and really kind of disappointed if Arkygerd turned out to be a wolf.
Reasonably confident that Ramius is a villager. If I'm wrong, this is probably my mistake.
Ramius abandoned his favored day 1 voting method to vote Cody day 1 for Cody's horrific spelling of "algorithm" and because Cody was voting Ramius. Ramius was really the first attempted lynch target of our only proven wolf. This is what got Jackson to activate against him in the first place. Ramius has a trollish side, and I could see him deciding to troll his packmate with a vote only to see it snowball out of control. Still, this was a key vote helping to nail a wolf. Since then Ramius has for Audren, Rovsea, and Aedan. As this largely squared with my own thinking here, I have trouble reading this as wolfish even if my thinking has a pretty bad track record so far (in fairness, so does everyone else's!) Nevertheless, I remember in my 1 game with Ramius as a wolf being somewhat baffled by his arguments, but most of what he's had to say here has made plenty of sense.
Good points in here, despite your vote for me. Unless the pack is Capage/Spock/Jeray, you are indeed correct the wolves could have sniped a tie. Why didn't they? 2 of the extremely likely wolves were already voting me and couldn't move. This leaves Arky (who doesn't seem to have been around), SPAMbuca (who was around and actually encouraged me to switch from Spock to prevent a snipe), and You (taking a break from Warband) as potential snipers. Sniping is a dangerous move, however, and Capage was clearly around to counter-snipe. I'm guessing the wolves decided to play it safe because they were reasonably confident they could string me up today, and it wasn't worth revealing themselves with a potential counter-sniper around. I'd like to think that I survived not entirely due to luck, but at least partly because the case against me wasn't really as strong as Aedan thought it was, and because I've diligently shown up to defend myself every day and have tried to raise good points, even if my conclusions haven't been perfect so far (again, in fairness to myself, other people's haven't been any better). I agree on the need to consolidate. Please, at least consider consolidating on someone other than me!
This leaves SPAMbuca, Voyager/Jeray 2.0, and Spock as the VILEST OF WOLVES!
F72Jeray: Voyager was busy eclipse chasing and Voyager voted Spock day 1. This vote went absolutely nowhere, so it probably was a chance for a wolf to score a non-controversial alibi vote. Still, this silly little day 1 vote does threaten my whole theory here; maybe I'm wrong and this vote does indeed show they aren't together. However,
Indeed. Day 2, Voyager glommed onto Aedan's case against me. In Aedan's own words
A case being given Aedan's seal of approval makes it especially tempting to wolves for join in on the occasions on which Aedan happens to be wrong, like this time for instance. After all, Aedan did say
Didn't vote day 3 and was subbed by Jeray day 4, who proceeded to waffle between Aedan and me, once again regurgitating Aedan's case. Nothing utterly damning here, but also hasn't really contributed much. Process of elimination strongly suggests a wolf. Then, there's this...
This is awfully brief for the last day when the fate of the village is at stake. Nothing more to say than this? No other theories to weigh? Probably hoping no one will bother rethink voting me and he and his wolfie friends can just ram me through for the win. Also, 3rd voter on a bandwagon.
Spockyt: Voted the seer day 1. As Aedan would undoubtedly mention, his context and timing of his vote are terrible. At the time of his cast, packmate Cody had 2 votes and potential packmate SPAMbuca also had 2 votes. Spock's vote moved Claude into contention with them. Follows up day 2 with a reasonable but ultimately incorrect vote against Jeray and tunnels with it day 3. Suggests Spammie and Ramius, but votes me instead. Could be an attempt to create some distance between each other in the thread given that Aedan had fingered both of them as potential packmates for me. Really not looking good. Capage was willing to go after him yesterday. Maybe today we can get a few more.
SPAMbuca: I've liked SPAMbuca's contributions for the most part, so I feel a little bad, but, under a close analysis, Spammie doesn't really look very good at all and Process of Elimination strongly suggest his wolfhood. Jackson summed up Spammies day 1 behavior pretty well.
Curiously, no one followed up on this. His initial choice was BlackCrown day 2, who was a painfully obvious goodie, before switching to Audren. On day 3 he publishes a neat rundown on everyone. Curiously, an enormous number of us are flagged as likely wolves. Spock, Voyager, and Myself are the only surviving "relatively likely wolves" from the list, so clearly he understands the importance of distancing himself from his packmates. He eventually settles in on Rovsea (no wonder Aedan thought we might be packmates). His proposed Day 4 Ramius based packs are, I hope Ramius can agree, rather suspect. He's done a good job in general interrogating people and maintaining his distance from his packmates, so it has taken me a while to come around on him, but I'm ready to start pushing for him. Besides, I usually regret not listening to Jacksonian.
People have been going after me for days now. I've now gone over my defense for my day 1 actions twice, but here it is again for the heck of it.
Really Spam and Spock have day 1 behavior that I would argue is more suspicious than my own. Aedan did prove to be a villager, but this far from proves he was right that I'm guilty. He does seem to have been correct in his other reads, in fact.Once Alynkio dies?
3 of the following 4 are wolvies: Voyager/Jeray 2.0, Aedan, Spock, and Spambuca.
Voyager voted Spock day 1 and then vanished, but this doesn't entirely rule them out as packamtes as this is a pretty safe vote that went nowhere. Today isn't the last day, so if we kill these 4 in any random order the village probably wins. The wolvies are probably pretty desperate. Their best chance of victory is to convince us to blow our free kill on me and hope 1 of them can scurry to victory when the village violently comes down against them.
The effect of my day 1 vote switch from Claude to Jackson was to change a 2 way tie between Claude and Cody into a 2 way tie between Jackson and Cody. Staying put would have had the same effect on the overall votes for a non-Cody candidate. While it's true I didn't vote for the wolf day 1, this is also true for plenty of other people. Much emphasis is put on my "Why are we killing Cody" comment. While it's certainly plausible that this comment was intended as an attempt to save my hypothetical packmate Cody, it's also plausible that I was just a villager unsure of anyone's alignment simply questioning the ease with which Cody was being strung up. My voting record is really no worse than anyone else's (save the Cody-voters) and claims to the contrary are forced to rely on my alignment not being common knowledge.
Typing this was exhausting and took way more time than I wanted it to. Time for sleep. More when I wake up. Please reconsider your vote Ramius
Attachments
Regardless of what Alynkio just wrote about me, I might actually agree on Spockyt. I linked Spockyt and and Alynkio before and I am willing to vote Spockyt before him. Spockyt hasn't responded to anything directly and it doesn't sit well with me still that Spockyt and Voyager/Jeray have voted together against Alynkio lately. In fact, as I indicated yesterday, I'd be more than willing to lynch both.
If we all think Spockyt is on our wolf list, why not go for a sure thing first? We can figure the last wolf out on the last day and see who is left alive by then.
What is also telling is that Jeray at least is perfectly happy to jump on the wagon once more. I agree we must have consensus but we should have plenty of time to turn this around. I'm most curious to see Jeray's response. Will he keep his vote on Alynkio now, will he switch to Spockyt, or will he actually turn around and do something else?
If we all think Spockyt is on our wolf list, why not go for a sure thing first? We can figure the last wolf out on the last day and see who is left alive by then.
What is also telling is that Jeray at least is perfectly happy to jump on the wagon once more. I agree we must have consensus but we should have plenty of time to turn this around. I'm most curious to see Jeray's response. Will he keep his vote on Alynkio now, will he switch to Spockyt, or will he actually turn around and do something else?
Ok, Aedan was villager. Does it mean that Alynkio is wulf? No and neither does it clear Spockyt or SPAM or anyone else. And we can't miss today.
What I find disturbing is Jeray's naked vote here. It almost sound like he's swift to distance himself from his partner.
Alynkio, It's interesting that you doubt me in the first paragraph and then write about Arky's vote as one that favoured wolf. Neither Adam nor you could be sure about that.
I find your wall of text weaker than walls from yesterday and it's interesting to see SPAM changing his vote without much hesitation. But given the overall activity I think that SPAM is the most likely town in this game.
I'm not so sure about Alynkio and I highly doubt Jeray. But we need to have one consensus person to vote, which is a confirmed wolf.
My vote yesterday was on Spockyt as person, which is most likely in several possible packs and his vote yesterday was poorer than most.
But
I think that with Aedan flipping town, possibility that Alynkio being wolf got higher. And as I mentioned, he's never with Spockyt. So, I find it strange to see both Alynkio and SPAM on him as they were discussed as wolves together yesterday...but again I find SPAM's performance good.
Who could be with both of them? I think that Jeray 2.0 is an option here.
My prefered order of votes is:
Spockyt
Alynkio
Jeray 2.0
Remember, we can't make a single wrong vote. All of town should be on a single candidate.
What I find disturbing is Jeray's naked vote here. It almost sound like he's swift to distance himself from his partner.
Alynkio, It's interesting that you doubt me in the first paragraph and then write about Arky's vote as one that favoured wolf. Neither Adam nor you could be sure about that.
I find your wall of text weaker than walls from yesterday and it's interesting to see SPAM changing his vote without much hesitation. But given the overall activity I think that SPAM is the most likely town in this game.
I'm not so sure about Alynkio and I highly doubt Jeray. But we need to have one consensus person to vote, which is a confirmed wolf.
My vote yesterday was on Spockyt as person, which is most likely in several possible packs and his vote yesterday was poorer than most.
But
I think that with Aedan flipping town, possibility that Alynkio being wolf got higher. And as I mentioned, he's never with Spockyt. So, I find it strange to see both Alynkio and SPAM on him as they were discussed as wolves together yesterday...but again I find SPAM's performance good.
Who could be with both of them? I think that Jeray 2.0 is an option here.
My prefered order of votes is:
Spockyt
Alynkio
Jeray 2.0
Remember, we can't make a single wrong vote. All of town should be on a single candidate.
I'm in favor of lynching either Jeray or Spockyt today and figure things out on the last day regarding the last wolf. Maybe it's even better not to discuss who that last wolf is. It will only help the wolves in their hunt. You guys pick either Jeray or Spockyt and I'm on board. But I again, I don't want to go for alynkio considering both today and yesterday's votes on him.
Not sure I understand. I think you are the least likely wolf. I see that Spock tops off your list. Wanna help lynch him again?
Yes but I was holding my vote to see reactions. Not much came to be honest and I have no good reason to trust you. There are 2 votes on spockyt and 1 vote on Jeray. If Spock is wolf, it's possible that his packmate Jeray is on you. If It's you, Spockyt is probably town and so is Jeray. So, It's a hard decision and my only solid spot here is SPAM, who managed to vote both of you today. My conclusion from that is that he is neither with you or spock. Probably not a wolf ever.
Also, I wondered if you notice that I put Jeray as the best common packmate for both of you and then put you on my list under you and spock. What do you think about that? Jeray might wait on you for a snipe.
I feel both Spockyt and Jeray are wolfs no matter what. I don't particulary care which of the 2 die today as long as we stay unified. If you agree, I don't think it matters for you to vote either of them too. If you really want Jeray voted first, I don't really mind, but let's make up our mind and not risk town being divided at the deadline.
Okay, why not Jeray then? Hopefully Wagon won't get too confused.
UNVOTE SPOCKYT
VOTE JERAY
UNVOTE SPOCKYT
VOTE JERAY