So, today is the last day. 3 wolves, 4 villagers remain. I'll do a full breakdown on what I think of everyone in approximate decreasing order of certainty.
I'm willing to stake the game that the following 2 are clear.
Jacksonian Missionary/Capage: Provided the vote that started the ball rolling on Cody day 1. Followed it up by voting SPAMbuca and Jeray before requesting a Sub. I could see a scenario in which Jackson cast what he thought was a safe alibi vote on Cody, then watched with dismay as the case snowballed out of control, but couldn't move without looking mega-shady. Still, I think this is less than likely. Jackson's subsequent reads were good (normal for Jackson), even if wrong about Jeray 2.0. Capage, also no slouch, dissented from the madness and went with the compromise candidate Spock and thus was possibly the only person yesterday to actually keep their vote on a wolf. Pretty clearly Capasonian Missionary is not a wolf.
Adamgerd/Arkasas: Provided the final vote on a wolf day 1, breaking a tie between a wolf and a villager in favor of a wolf. No one has so much as questioned his villagerishness since. Had this vote come from Wombat rather than Adamgerd, I would have been probably grown suspicious about his continued survival after a few days and then begun loudly wondering how Adam/Arky's vote could have been a wolf giving up on a dead packmate and trying to ride the alibi vote to victory. However, the vote did come from Adamgerd, who's basically a total noob, and his 1 voting comment didn't really make much sense. I really have trouble seeing a scheming wolf here. Since Arky took over, Arky has been playing basically how Arky usually plays. On the whole, not much to go on, but I'd really be shocked, and really kind of disappointed if Arkygerd turned out to be a wolf.
Reasonably confident that Ramius is a villager. If I'm wrong, this is probably my mistake.
Ramius abandoned his favored day 1 voting method to vote Cody day 1 for Cody's horrific spelling of "algorithm" and because Cody was voting Ramius. Ramius was really the first attempted lynch target of our only proven wolf. This is what got Jackson to activate against him in the first place. Ramius has a trollish side, and I could see him deciding to troll his packmate with a vote only to see it snowball out of control. Still, this was a key vote helping to nail a wolf. Since then Ramius has for Audren, Rovsea, and Aedan. As this largely squared with my own thinking here, I have trouble reading this as wolfish even if my thinking has a pretty bad track record so far (in fairness, so does everyone else's!) Nevertheless, I remember in my 1 game with Ramius as a wolf being somewhat baffled by his arguments, but most of what he's had to say here has made plenty of sense.
Something else that stands out to me is that, for a good few minutes before deadline, the possibility of a snipe TIE was very well possible. We've seen the wolves attempt to snipe two villagers for the win recently in other rounds, so how come it didn't happen this time? Is it because the wolves didn't feel like tempting fate, or was it because one of the wolves was actually in contention? Alynkio has been remarkably lucky so far: twice now, he's been one vote away from a lynch, and he has escaped. Not only Aedan, but also Rovsea and Claude voted him at one point. As for packs, I think Alynkio and Spocky are fairly non-controversial, but for the third candidate either Spam is putting on a hell of a performance, or a wolf voted Cody on day 1. Or perhaps Arky, who now that I think of it has been almost completely absent.
As an aside note, whoever we decide to lynch today, it MUST be a unanimous vote; we are 4-3 if my math is correct, so any villagers voting someone other then the main candidate puts everyone into jeopardy (!). We also no longer have any confirmed goodies.
Good points in here, despite your vote for me. Unless the pack is Capage/Spock/Jeray, you are indeed correct the wolves could have sniped a tie. Why didn't they? 2 of the extremely likely wolves were already voting me and couldn't move. This leaves Arky (who doesn't seem to have been around), SPAMbuca (who was around and actually encouraged me to switch from Spock to prevent a snipe), and You (taking a break from Warband) as potential snipers. Sniping is a dangerous move, however, and Capage was clearly around to counter-snipe. I'm guessing the wolves decided to play it safe because they were reasonably confident they could string me up today, and it wasn't worth revealing themselves with a potential counter-sniper around. I'd like to think that I survived not entirely due to luck, but at least partly because the case against me wasn't really as strong as Aedan thought it was, and because I've diligently shown up to defend myself every day and have tried to raise good points, even if my conclusions haven't been perfect so far (again, in fairness to myself, other people's haven't been any better). I agree on the need to consolidate. Please, at least consider consolidating on someone other than me!
This leaves SPAMbuca, Voyager/Jeray 2.0, and Spock as the VILEST OF WOLVES!
F72Jeray: Voyager was busy eclipse chasing and Voyager voted Spock day 1. This vote went absolutely nowhere, so it probably was a chance for a wolf to score a non-controversial alibi vote. Still, this silly little day 1 vote does threaten my whole theory here; maybe I'm wrong and this vote does indeed show they aren't together. However,
This is exactly the moment for wolves to cast alibi votes while trying to fly under the radar. Without wishing to sound too much like an ass, I understand people have lives outside this game and traveling and all that will make it difficult to post, but it will result in people be given a free pass to lurk/fly under the radar until the end game.
Indeed. Day 2, Voyager glommed onto Aedan's case against me. In Aedan's own words
Seriously, go look at any recent lite game, and if I make a somewhat lengthy case on the first few days, a number of players will follow it like lemmings, often wolves wanting to blend in by following my lead.
A case being given Aedan's seal of approval makes it especially tempting to wolves for join in on the occasions on which Aedan happens to be wrong, like this time for instance. After all, Aedan did say
I have a good reputation as a wolf finder, but I'm hardly infallible.
Didn't vote day 3 and was subbed by Jeray day 4, who proceeded to waffle between Aedan and me, once again regurgitating Aedan's case. Nothing utterly damning here, but also hasn't really contributed much. Process of elimination strongly suggests a wolf. Then, there's this...
This is awfully brief for the last day when the fate of the village is at stake. Nothing more to say than this? No other theories to weigh? Probably hoping no one will bother rethink voting me and he and his wolfie friends can just ram me through for the win. Also, 3rd voter on a bandwagon.
Spockyt: Voted the seer day 1. As Aedan would undoubtedly mention, his context and timing of his vote are terrible. At the time of his cast, packmate Cody had 2 votes and potential packmate SPAMbuca also had 2 votes. Spock's vote moved Claude into contention with them. Follows up day 2 with a reasonable but ultimately incorrect vote against Jeray and tunnels with it day 3. Suggests Spammie and Ramius, but votes me instead. Could be an attempt to create some distance between each other in the thread given that Aedan had fingered both of them as potential packmates for me. Really not looking good. Capage was willing to go after him yesterday. Maybe today we can get a few more.
SPAMbuca: I've liked SPAMbuca's contributions for the most part, so I feel a little bad, but, under a close analysis, Spammie doesn't really look very good at all and Process of Elimination strongly suggest his wolfhood. Jackson summed up Spammies day 1 behavior pretty well.
I think the most logical option here is to focus on those who were trying to push me into the lead instead of Cody, as many can hide behind day 1 reasoning for their votes but often there are conceited efforts to save packmates if they are in danger on Day 1. The person who most catches my eye in this regard is SPAM, who was extremely jumpy as it was all of yesterday and was pushing me close to lead once Cody had accumulated 4 votes.
Curiously, no one followed up on this. His initial choice was BlackCrown day 2, who was a painfully obvious goodie, before switching to Audren. On day 3 he publishes a neat rundown on everyone. Curiously, an enormous number of us are flagged as likely wolves. Spock, Voyager, and Myself are the only surviving "relatively likely wolves" from the list, so clearly he understands the importance of distancing himself from his packmates. He eventually settles in on Rovsea (no wonder Aedan thought we might be packmates). His proposed Day 4 Ramius based packs are, I hope Ramius can agree, rather suspect. He's done a good job in general interrogating people and maintaining his distance from his packmates, so it has taken me a while to come around on him, but I'm ready to start pushing for him. Besides, I usually regret not listening to Jacksonian.
People have been going after me for days now. I've now gone over my defense for my day 1 actions twice, but here it is again for the heck of it.
Once Alynkio dies?

I intend not to die if I have anything to say about it!
3 of the following 4 are wolvies: Voyager/Jeray 2.0, Aedan, Spock, and Spambuca.
Voyager voted Spock day 1 and then vanished, but this doesn't entirely rule them out as packamtes as this is a pretty safe vote that went nowhere. Today isn't the last day, so if we kill these 4 in any random order the village probably wins. The wolvies are probably pretty desperate. Their best chance of victory is to convince us to blow our free kill on me and hope 1 of them can scurry to victory when the village violently comes down against them.
The effect of my day 1 vote switch from Claude to Jackson was to change a 2 way tie between Claude and Cody into a 2 way tie between Jackson and Cody. Staying put would have had the same effect on the overall votes for a non-Cody candidate. While it's true I didn't vote for the wolf day 1, this is also true for plenty of other people. Much emphasis is put on my "Why are we killing Cody" comment. While it's certainly plausible that this comment was intended as an attempt to save my hypothetical packmate Cody, it's also plausible that I was just a villager unsure of anyone's alignment simply questioning the ease with which Cody was being strung up. My voting record is really no worse than anyone else's (save the Cody-voters) and claims to the contrary are forced to rely on my alignment not being common knowledge.
Really Spam and Spock have day 1 behavior that I would argue is more suspicious than my own. Aedan did prove to be a villager, but this far from proves he was right that I'm guilty. He does seem to have been correct in his other reads, in fact.
Typing this was exhausting and took way more time than I wanted it to. Time for sleep. More when I wake up. Please reconsider your vote Ramius
