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Meh, I'd rather lynch Voyager, but Hax fits with him as a packmate, and steam seems to be picking up against Hax, and we can't split our votes or the wolves can snipe to victory.
Unvote F72Voyager Vote Hax
Unvote F72Voyager Vote Hax
Unvote Voyager
Vote Hax
Consolidation, at this point. As aedan noted, fits with other suspicious characters.
Vote Hax
Consolidation, at this point. As aedan noted, fits with other suspicious characters.
9 players remain, 8 of which aren't me. I've got coin toss odds of hitting a wolf. Analyzing has been tough here as we haven't caught a wolf yet and most of the people who have received attention have ended up dead. I tried to fit people into potential packs, only to learn most people fit together petty well.
Alxeu -- Throwaway on villager Lostie day 1, then voted Ike, then Voyager. Posted a set of reads that I largely agree with (but a woldf could do that as well as a villager), and could fit into a pack with most people.
Voyager -- His vote against me yesterday still doesn't sit well with me. Going off vibes alone, I'd say a wolf, but he has received a bit of attention so far, and his list of potential packmates is rapidly dwindling. (Though maybe he's getting thrown under the bus) I'm wary of sleep-walking into lynching him. Like that he finally posted his thoughts, and he might have a point on Jeray.
Audren -- Unabashedly admitted to trying to help create an ill-advised TIE day 1 (a bit attention-grabby for a wolf). Started Ike Bandwagon day 2. Still, on the whole, not a good look. Throwaway on Jeray. Has refrained from voting so far, which makes me nervous.
Claude -- The Late Comer broke the Euro/Arky tie day 1 (only to have Capi recreate it), then cast what amounted to a throw-away on Voyager day 2 for casting a goofy vote. Still, with voyager's general skittishness, this vote looks a bit better.
Jeray -- Previously noted throwaway day 1 on Aedan day 1. Got some attention day 2. Seems to have a feud going with Voyager, so probably not packmates. His post today seems pretty random. Don't know what to make of it.
Hax -- Tough to read. Hasn't played too differently than he usualIy does. I don't know if pure chance is the best way to describe our situation, though. There's definitely enough info to get some general reads here. Aedan's potential wolf pack does make sense, for instance. Why Alxeu, for example, and not Jeray or Audren or Voyager? Also, he fits as a packmate with most people.
Aedan -- Who knows? I can't pretend to read Aedan. If he's a wolf, probably best to go after his mates first. That being said, Aedan's post today makes sense, and I'm temporarily inclined to trust him.
Matthew -- Brand new. Self-voted, then bandwagoned on the subsequent days. If he actually was a wolf, I imagine his packmates would have been viciously applying the whip in the pack convo. Though having him appear super new and thus avoid suspicion could be an interesting strategy too. A little curious how he got these percentages.
We do have to consolidate. I'm willing to roll the dice with Hax.
VOTE HAX[/QUOTE]
Alxeu -- Throwaway on villager Lostie day 1, then voted Ike, then Voyager. Posted a set of reads that I largely agree with (but a woldf could do that as well as a villager), and could fit into a pack with most people.
Voyager -- His vote against me yesterday still doesn't sit well with me. Going off vibes alone, I'd say a wolf, but he has received a bit of attention so far, and his list of potential packmates is rapidly dwindling. (Though maybe he's getting thrown under the bus) I'm wary of sleep-walking into lynching him. Like that he finally posted his thoughts, and he might have a point on Jeray.
Audren -- Unabashedly admitted to trying to help create an ill-advised TIE day 1 (a bit attention-grabby for a wolf). Started Ike Bandwagon day 2. Still, on the whole, not a good look. Throwaway on Jeray. Has refrained from voting so far, which makes me nervous.
Claude -- The Late Comer broke the Euro/Arky tie day 1 (only to have Capi recreate it), then cast what amounted to a throw-away on Voyager day 2 for casting a goofy vote. Still, with voyager's general skittishness, this vote looks a bit better.
Jeray -- Previously noted throwaway day 1 on Aedan day 1. Got some attention day 2. Seems to have a feud going with Voyager, so probably not packmates. His post today seems pretty random. Don't know what to make of it.
Hax -- Tough to read. Hasn't played too differently than he usualIy does. I don't know if pure chance is the best way to describe our situation, though. There's definitely enough info to get some general reads here. Aedan's potential wolf pack does make sense, for instance. Why Alxeu, for example, and not Jeray or Audren or Voyager? Also, he fits as a packmate with most people.
Aedan -- Who knows? I can't pretend to read Aedan. If he's a wolf, probably best to go after his mates first. That being said, Aedan's post today makes sense, and I'm temporarily inclined to trust him.
Matthew -- Brand new. Self-voted, then bandwagoned on the subsequent days. If he actually was a wolf, I imagine his packmates would have been viciously applying the whip in the pack convo. Though having him appear super new and thus avoid suspicion could be an interesting strategy too. A little curious how he got these percentages.
We do have to consolidate. I'm willing to roll the dice with Hax.
VOTE HAX[/QUOTE]
[/QUOTE]
it was pretty simple, really. The odds of any occurances happening together are their respective odds multiplied together. Using these, I calculated the odds of each player voting for villagers due to random chance. Assuming they did not vote themselves (which I did, admittedly), the odds for a poor vote on day 1 are 11/15, 2/3 on day 2, and 7/11 on day 3. Hax, for instance, voted for villagers each night so his odds of voting due to random chance are (11/15)(2/3)(7/11)=roughly .314. By subtracting that number from 1, you get the odds of voting due to a factor other than random chance which, for hax, would be 1-0.314=.686 or 68.6%.
Vote Hax
I feel more likely Voyager as a wolf than Hax, but he is part of the ones I suspect, so...
And we have Matthews numbers, so let's hope the maths check out.
I feel more likely Voyager as a wolf than Hax, but he is part of the ones I suspect, so...
And we have Matthews numbers, so let's hope the maths check out.
I suck at most math to be honest but for some reason I am usually good at statistics. Probably how I passed AP stats in high school without ever studying.
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I don't love Hax, but we gotta consolidate, and he'd fit reasonably well with both jeray and Voyager
UNVOTE JERAY
VOTE HAX
UNVOTE JERAY
VOTE HAX
I'm not sure I'd say that it was. We had good analysis earlier on. The consolidation happened without as much debate as I'd like, but we had several solid candidates to choose from, cases borne from decent analysis.