The Butterfly Effect: A British AAR

[AtlanticFriend]

(OK there is @AtlanticFriend s 'Become an independent state under French protection' option, but that's a desperation move).

Nah, it's a winning move (and actually their only shot at independence)!

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

The Spanish Flu bug itself was fairly average as these things go, it was the circumstances and weakness of the victims that made it such a disaster.

Pandemics and epidemics don't just concern the virus or sickness, at least not when studying them afterwards. After all, you need quite ideal conditions for a sickness that kills quickly to spread around so many humans so quickly. Flu and the variants of it are among the most dangerous in the world for this sort of thing because they spread so fast and far due to how they infect people that any failure to quarantine or an absence of lots of medical support will be punished severely. Something like Ebola on the other hand is indeed very infectious (any and all bodily fluids) but it kills healthy humans so quickly that it's quite hard for it to break out on such a large scale.

Europe was such a mess in 1918 that there's no end to the illnesses that could have been a gigiantic problem for it. As it happened, they got really unlucky and had one of the worst ones possible.

Japan will always go after China, that's just the nature of Shōwa period Japan. What else they need to do (or think they need to do) in order to support that effort, that's a different question.

By that you mean how they conquer china and then how do they rule it? This is indeed a very important question because if they do figure out a way to partition china jnto a variety of puppet governments and keep control over all of them, then Japan would have a very powerful empire indeed in asia.

Of course...if.

In a scenario where they don't need US assistance (i.e. no war in Europe) the British and Dutch would probably happily sell oil to Japan. Neither has massive ambitions in China, there are a few commercial interests but nothing like the organised China Lobby the US had. What the Japanese would have done, it's a bit murkier and probably tied up with how their war with China is going.

Indeed. It all comes back to how quickly and cleanly they take china and then how they try to administer it. Puppet states could be more easily swallowed by the international community (who, if they care about asia at all, might well see Japan as inevtiably going to rule because it's Western).

The World Cup plot was an unusual diversion even by my standards and it was (*quickly checks*) four years ago. Four!

Due another set then, every four years!

That's before both daughters.

!

The issue the French keep coming back to is; there are a lot less Frenchmen than Germans. Roughly 42million French vs 68 million Germans. GDP per capita was broadly similar, so the German economy was always going to be 60% bigger.

That's now gone so while the French are certainly more confident than OTL, the importance of her Eastern European allies just jumped massively. The sensitive point for France isn't the Far East, it's important but it's not critical, it's Eastern Europe.

There's French national identity as well, and pride. The Empire is something they have that germany does not and it's a considerable source of prestige for them. They might not care about it strategically any more but they need to hold onto it for now just because it keeps the man on the street (who may or may not hate the governemnts guts) at least feel a little happy to be french in these hard times.

A lot of things point South. Except common sense, which points towards peace, but that's not a popular direction.

Common sense is a nebulous term to apply to history especially to a very foreign culture that at the time genuinely believes it was the king of the world and that quite a lot of the rest of humanity was utterly awful at everything. Even then yes the presence of a massive fleet of british and Dutch ships should make them hesitate but that doesn't stop them from doing whatever they like on land, from their perspective at least.

French thinking (at present) is that if it gets to a stage where Germany is confident enough to try to invade through Belgium (and risking bringing Britain into the war) then things have already gone horribly badly wrong.

I would say anytime a large country thinks it can take on three countries at the same time with the view of annexing two of them, things have gone horribly wrong. Hell, last time this exact thing occured, things had gone and would contiue to go horribly wrong for 4 years.

the entire plan was always Long War but if the enemy has more resources than you, then that will never work, so get peace while you can.

A question to ask now is...did anyone at the time either know or figure out how terrible a state german resources were in? Either through espionage, careful analysis of various factors or just 'common sense'. Because if france or GB actually thought that germany would run out of puff in a few months of war, i can more easily see why they might be less worried about the large and angry military state on their doorstep.

If the Japanese could convince the British they had no ambitions in South East Asia and were going to stop being quite so commercially aggressive, then maybe I could see it. Mostly a trade type treaty, British resources flowing to Japan and some Japanese trade barriers being dropped in exchange,

Thst would be very nice (well, not for the Chinease but who cares about them?) but of course how on esrth the Japanese could convince the government of that and stick to it as well...I'm sure someone on here could think of a highly interesting way but even so I doubt it.

Interesting words, but coming from a mistaken initial premise - that the British are looking for an ally. British policy isn't quite Splendid Isolation but in terms of continental commitments it's pretty close.

My take on it was that they actually weren't lookong for an ally but they needed one. They can't adopt something like isolation towards europe unless they really don't care who wins between france, germany and perhaps russia. Noe they might think that or be convinced of such things and focus on the empire and everywhere aside from europe. I can sort of see scenarios where they would try to do that. Gamble that france and its alliance can balance germany and germany can balance russia. Basically, pretend that the alliance system pre 1914 could work.

Broadly speaking London believes the French and their Eastern European allies have Germany handled (and that Hitler is looking a bit paper tiger) while if push comes to shove they can handle Japan and still maintain a decent fleet presence elsewhere. With the Med secure and Italy staring intently elsewhere, who else could they end up fighting?

Ok, so they do seem to think that. Right, that's fine from in universe and no hindsight but even then, why would they not at that point seek to take advantage of their new neutralitt and trt to gather a new alliance of european narions thst want to stay netural in that conflict? At the very least, they should be buddying up to the Netherlands just because of Japan and trading there. And then they can focus on internal matters, the empire and their forigen markets.

London believes that Italy is humbled, Germany is contained and the RN can deter the Japanese, so is not seeing a great need for allies.

As said I can see why they think it but still need not so much 'allies' as at least a few friendly nations to help them do what they want to do without getting attached into a formal alliance.

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

Kind of hard to imagine how you could get worse than Spanish flu. You'd have to have ebola go global or have all the sewers cease working to get a massive cholera pandemic.

It could be real Spanish, for starters, and then it would be a real bitch of a flu...

If you are a Republican pilot the Spanish Flu would be preferable - they would have a higher chance of surviving a dose of the Spanish Flu than a close encounter with a Spanish Venom.

Being Spaniard that pilot, I have the feeling that he would find a few tricks in his sleeve to keep the Venom at bay, until some better plane is send to replace the Chatos and the Moscas.

I wonder what Uncle Joe is thinking about the turn of events in the Spanish Skies...

Something like this?

 

[Sir Charles Dewitt]

Similarly, French do have New Caledonia, a region that has, since 1875 been producing nickel. and chromium since 1880. And to lesser extend, Iron as well. And produces in modern time roughly 10% of world's nickel supply.

Not bad for a funny little rock in the south pacific.

 

[AtlanticFriend]

Not bad for a funny little rock in the south pacific.

Which is why last year's referendum about independence was quite newsworthy!

 

[Killerduck]

Pip, what happened to Italian cruisers that UK got after Abbysinian war?

Their torpedo protection was used in BC design sold to the Netherlands, but what happened with ships themselves?

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Pip, what happened to Italian cruisers that UK got after Abbysinian war?

Their torpedo protection was used in BC design sold to the Netherlands, but what happened with ships themselves?

I think but am not certain that they sold/gave some to Australia and buffed up the east asia fleet. At the time everyone was very relieved and pleased by the war pretty much because it meant the RN and Commonwealth could focus on Japan and not the Med Sea.

 

[Killerduck]

I think but am not certain that they sold/gave some to Australia and buffed up the east asia fleet. At the time everyone was very relieved and pleased by the war pretty much because it meant the RN and Commonwealth could focus on Japan and not the Med Sea.

I'm not sure... I seem to recall that it was proposed to gift some of them to Aussies, but it was rejected due to lack of compatibility with other RAN and RN vessels and infrastructure (metric vs. imperial and different munitions, parts, spares, etc).

 

[roverS3]

I have to say, you have posted more updates in the 4 months I was off the forum than I expected. Good job @El Pip , keep this up and maybe we'll get to the end in a less than infinite amount of time.
In any case, I'm all caught up now, and I have to say: I never expected to be sitting on the edge of my seat in suspense as to what shape the aeroplane, that the UK would deliver to the monarchists, would take. From that first update on engines all the way through the end of this one, I was hooked.
In any case, the Spanish civil war continues to deliver an inexhaustible amount of political and technical drama in all those nations that are even remotely involved, and I'm still loving every bit.

 

[H.Appleby]

Well, I want to reconfirm my commitment to the Butterfly Effect (and given the venerable nature of this institution, how could a reactionary weirdo like myself fail to support it? They'd take away my membership card and ban me from half-off nights at Cracker Barrel).

 

[AtlanticFriend]

Well, I want to reconfirm my commitment to the Butterfly Effect (and given the venerable nature of this institution, how could a reactionary weirdo like myself fail to support it? They'd take away my membership card and ban me from half-off nights at Cracker Barrel).

Indeed. One of the Brexit's worst consequences will be to make that gem of an AAR truly foreign to continental, Eu-brainwashed, superstate enablers readers such as myself. I say it's time to pick up and update the old shelved plan for the Franco-British Union. I would wholeheartedly (and wholestomachedly) support a joint breakfast of beans, kidneys and croissants, and I daresay we'd rule supreme in the realm of cheese delight and other, no-nonsense food (and ale).

 

[El Pip]

I never claimed it was the most realistic outcome, but damn if I don't want it to happen. But then I also want "Laughing Joe Stalin" and his opposite "Uncle Hitler" to be carried away by alien space bats. So I'm more than used to the "ideal" outcome not being the "probable" outcome. And, alas, I suspect the Basques have a glorious but very short, future ahead of them. These things happen.

The problem I see is that the Basque need quite a lot of stars to align for any 'good' outcome; a more sensible/moderate Basque leadership, the war going in just the right/wrong way for all involved and probably a few convenient deaths and even then it's a long shot.

Far more importantly, and I must be brutally honest here, it's a pit of complex and contentious research I don't fancy digging into (the subject matter being neither British, tech-porn or amusingly obscure) and that more than anything counts against them.

If Oil Flows. Then Japanese would have no need to attack Indonesia, atleast, not when they are attacking China, simply due to the fact that one reason Japan assaulted ALL THE SIDES was the American embargo that starved Japanese out of more or less everything it needed for continued warfare, oil and rubber being the main thing running out fast.

Probably true. I've read very conflicting reports on the state of Japanese foreign reserves at the time, quite how long they could continue to pay for their oil and rubber imports (and the hire of the ships that carried them) is a bit unclear. The Japanese were obviously a bit cagey on exact numbers so it's all estimates, but they can't use Yen (no-one wants it) and having put so much of the economy on a war footing there's not enough commercial exports to cover the costs. So at some point they will run out of money, but I'd expect it to be a later date than the OTL declaration of war.

Actually French Indochina has rubber plantations in it by this time already (1925 being the time the first plantations were created by Michelin in modern day Vietnam.), however they only hit their boon when Automobile boon hits France. These plantations, while owned by the Vietnamese communist party nowdays. Still exist to this day. The region does as well contain Bauxite and Copper, as well as Coal.
Similarly, French do have New Caledonia, a region that has, since 1875 been producing nickel. and chromium since 1880. And to lesser extend, Iron as well. And produces in modern time roughly 10% of world's nickel supply.

Korea is surprisingly rich in minerals, certainly plenty of coal and iron that were being extracted by the Japanese in the 1930s.

Rubber however is a different matter. It will hopefully surprise no-one when I say that there is a Butterfly Effect update on the subject of Rubber Plantations and such like scheduled for *mumble-mumble* point in the future. Certainly the French plantations of Indochina will feature then.

Nah, it's a winning move (and actually their only shot at independence)!

Oh yes it's the winning move for the Basque. But for French it's a desperation move.
Recognising an independent Basque country would shatter relations with the Republicans and I cannot see France doing that unless the Republicans have basically lost - "Well we've lost the rest Spain, lets see if we can at least get something" type thinking.

By that you mean how they conquer china and then how do they rule it? This is indeed a very important question because if they do figure out a way to partition china jnto a variety of puppet governments and keep control over all of them, then Japan would have a very powerful empire indeed in asia.

Indeed. It all comes back to how quickly and cleanly they take china and then how they try to administer it. Puppet states could be more easily swallowed by the international community (who, if they care about asia at all, might well see Japan as inevtiably going to rule because it's Western).

From a quick skim I think Japan would go for puppets, that was certainly their approach in Northern China and elsewhere. I don't think that will make it any more acceptable though. To cover a later comment, after Manchuko and everything else no-one trusts Japan.

Interesting fact, and something I intend to investigate in a future update, British interests in China were considerably larger than I had previously appreciated. The US China Lobby may have been more vocal, but I've seen a couple of papers arguing that the US only displaced Britain as the pre-eminent western power in the Far East around the end of 1940. Partly this Britain being obviously distracted and partly the US becoming more interested. Fairly safe to say that dynamic will not be developing in Butterfly Effect.

Due another set then, every four years!

Aside from finishing off the Football I do have half an eye on a future sporting diversion. There was a 'British Isles' (The Lions) rugby team and the MCC / England cricket side going to South Africa, which will probably be the excuse for another update looking at what is happening down at the bottom of Africa. This is unlikely to emerge until 2020.

There's French national identity as well, and pride. The Empire is something they have that germany does not and it's a considerable source of prestige for them. They might not care about it strategically any more but they need to hold onto it for now just because it keeps the man on the street (who may or may not hate the governemnts guts) at least feel a little happy to be french in these hard times.

All true and certainly efforts will be made to hold the French Empire, as has been mentioned there are considerable resources there and it is a source of prestige, power and influence. But the main French thinking (and spending) at the time seemed focused on Europe in general and Germany in particular, the British spent a fortune on Singapore for instance but there was no equivalent effort by France in building up a modern naval base in Indochina. Different priorities I suppose was the point.

A question to ask now is...did anyone at the time either know or figure out how terrible a state german resources were in? Either through espionage, careful analysis of various factors or just 'common sense'. Because if france or GB actually thought that germany would run out of puff in a few months of war, i can more easily see why they might be less worried about the large and angry military state on their doorstep.

British commercial shipping intelligence was absolutely first rate, the advantage of being the global hub for shipping insurance and allied trades. They knew how much Germany imported and could reasonably extrapolate from their own industry how much was being used, so stockpiles of the more exotic stuff (rubber, tungsten, anything that had to come to Europe by ship) were known. The oil situation would also have been understood because that was mostly imported by ship as well, Romanian oil got shipped elsewhere due to peace-time supply chains.

Long war was a well planned and carefully developed scheme that could easily have worked, except the execution of the plan was abysmal and Germany would insist on not behaving as the plan required.

My take on it was that they actually weren't lookong for an ally but they needed one. They can't adopt something like isolation towards europe unless they really don't care who wins between france, germany and perhaps russia. Noe they might think that or be convinced of such things and focus on the empire and everywhere aside from europe. I can sort of see scenarios where they would try to do that. Gamble that france and its alliance can balance germany and germany can balance russia. Basically, pretend that the alliance system pre 1914 could work.

Ok, so they do seem to think that. Right, that's fine from in universe and no hindsight but even then, why would they not at that point seek to take advantage of their new neutralitt and trt to gather a new alliance of european narions thst want to stay netural in that conflict? At the very least, they should be buddying up to the Netherlands just because of Japan and trading there. And then they can focus on internal matters, the empire and their forigen markets.

As said I can see why they think it but still need not so much 'allies' as at least a few friendly nations to help them do what they want to do without getting attached into a formal alliance.

London would probably go for some sort of deal with the Dutch, but the main barrier to such an arrangement is the Dutch. They don't (yet) feel threatened enough by Japan in the Far East and are very confident that even if the Japanese do head south the British will bail them out, not particularly honourable but essentially they are correct. That said the Project 1047 battlecruisers (Chapter CXIX for those keeping track at home) is considered a possible Trojan horse to try and build up some Anglo-Dutch co-operation. Similar efforts are being made around Scandinavia, but mostly sort of trade focused with an eye to that leading to other things later.

Essentially the issue is that most of the non-aligned nations of Europe think that just saying you are neutral is good enough. After all it worked for the Dutch and others in the Great War, so will surely work again. Plus with Italy thrashed and Germany clearly a paper tiger humbled by France, they can't see the threat. All of this is obviously wrong, but until opinions change there's not much the Foreign Office can do, especially as they half believe that analysis themselves.

Being Spaniard that pilot, I have the feeling that he would find a few tricks in his sleeve to keep the Venom at bay, until some better plane is send to replace the Chatos and the Moscas.

I wonder what Uncle Joe is thinking about the turn of events in the Spanish Skies...

Something like this?

Spanish pilots vs Spanish pilots, their tricks cancel each other out.

Stalin is being told that they sent the rubbish planes to Spain, that's why they are failing. This has the advantage of being somewhat true, the export I-16s were a bit dicey and lacked the 'good' (by Soviet standards) engines and the proper guns. The Soviet could send the good stuff to Spain, but there is no Spanish gold to pay for it - the gold is all in London paying for shiny kit for the Monarchists. Stalin would have to send the planes out on credit and I'm not sure he's that committed.

Not bad for a funny little rock in the south pacific.

Which is why last year's referendum about independence was quite newsworthy!

Fascinating tiny island facts. Good work all round.

Pip, what happened to Italian cruisers that UK got after Abbysinian war?

Their torpedo protection was used in BC design sold to the Netherlands, but what happened with ships themselves?

I think but am not certain that they sold/gave some to Australia and buffed up the east asia fleet. At the time everyone was very relieved and pleased by the war pretty much because it meant the RN and Commonwealth could focus on Japan and not the Med Sea.

I'm not sure... I seem to recall that it was proposed to gift some of them to Aussies, but it was rejected due to lack of compatibility with other RAN and RN vessels and infrastructure (metric vs. imperial and different munitions, parts, spares, etc).

@Killerduck has it correct, the Italian ships would be a nightmare for the RAN to maintain and the current Australian government would much rather spend the money on the RAAF and aircraft.

So the Italian cruisers are currently sitting in Rosyth looking a bit sorry for themselves - The Admiralty is weighing up whether to tear one apart just to maximise all the lessons learnt. They probably won't be scrapped (yet) and a use for spare hulls can always be found - if nothing else I believe the accommodation was quite good so they may end up as Barracks Ships till they degrade too far, then gunnery test targets.

I have to say, you have posted more updates in the 4 months I was off the forum than I expected. Good job @El Pip , keep this up and maybe we'll get to the end in a less than infinite amount of time.
In any case, I'm all caught up now, and I have to say: I never expected to be sitting on the edge of my seat in suspense as to what shape the aeroplane, that the UK would deliver to the monarchists, would take. From that first update on engines all the way through the end of this one, I was hooked.
In any case, the Spanish civil war continues to deliver an inexhaustible amount of political and technical drama in all those nations that are even remotely involved, and I'm still loving every bit.

The variable update schedule for Butterfly helps keep people on their toes and weeds out the uncommitted.

Excellent work on catching up and I am delighted the Spanish engine sequence of updates met with approval, I'll admit I was worried it could all seem a bit dragged out so I am relieved that at least some readers enjoyed it.

Well, I want to reconfirm my commitment to the Butterfly Effect (and given the venerable nature of this institution, how could a reactionary weirdo like myself fail to support it? They'd take away my membership card and ban me from half-off nights at Cracker Barrel).

Butterfly is indeed a long standing institution and thus worthy of automatic and unquestioning respect. Or failing that it must at least qualify for the Chesterton's Fence Defence.

I am honoured at your reconfirmed commitment and will strive to remain worthy of it and Cracker Barrel (which I assume is not literally a barrel of crackers? If it is, what sort of crackers? Because if it's some sort of multi-gran abomination I may have to reconsider)

Indeed. One of the Brexit's worst consequences will be to make that gem of an AAR truly foreign to continental, Eu-brainwashed, superstate enablers readers such as myself. I say it's time to pick up and update the old shelved plan for the Franco-British Union. I would wholeheartedly (and wholestomachedly) support a joint breakfast of beans, kidneys and croissants, and I daresay we'd rule supreme in the realm of cheese delight and other, no-nonsense food (and ale).

There would be many culinary pluses to a Franco-British Union, many areas in which the combined meals would reign supreme. There could be a few trivial issues to sort, but if the catering was done properly then it has a chance.

I fully expect Brexit, and most other things, to have long since resolved themselves and been forgotten long before Butterfly gets anywhere near completion. The biggest risk remains Paradox getting bored of maintaining the HOI2 sub-forum and turning it off, but even here I am relaxed. They would have to be aware this area exists first before they could turn it off, and I'm not convinced they are.

Also
Please do go and vote in The 2018 Yearly AARland Year-end AwAARds as it will bring a little joy into @coz1 s life to see more votes pileup. You don't even have to vote for Butterfly and T&T in every eligible category, though that is clearly the correct choice and you should think long and hard about yourselves if you do make such an ill-judged ballot.

 

[Wraith11B]

I am honoured at your reconfirmed commitment and will strive to remain worthy of it and Cracker Barrel (which I assume is not literally a barrel of crackers? If it is, what sort of crackers? Because if it's some sort of multi-gran abomination I may have to reconsider)

As a True American and (sorta) Southerner, I am indignant at the ignorance of one of our staple providers of absolutely horrendous cuisine (It's not actually that bad, but don't eat there often because you'll wind up looking like a beached whale). As a man of culture and extensive foreign travels, I forgive the lack of awareness and explain that Cracker Barrel is a massive chain eatery focused on "Comfort Food" from the US South. Pretty sure they also don't serve alcohol, those Baptists... bless their hearts.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Interesting fact, and something I intend to investigate in a future update, British interests in China were considerably larger than I had previously appreciated.

Makes sense. They have a long history of trade together. And most of it is very exciting and full of sex, drugs and violence. I imagine British-Chinease trade historians are the rock gods of early modern history.

But the main French thinking (and spending) at the time seemed focused on Europe in general and Germany in particular, the British spent a fortune on Singapore for instance but there was no equivalent effort by France in building up a modern naval base in Indochina. Different priorities I suppose was the point.

It makes sense when the enemy is not floating off the coast of a valuable colony but right next door to your own country and very scary looking. If Singapore fell, it would be the worst disaster in modern British history. If German tanks get over the french border without a fight, France might well collapse right then and there given how buggered the country was at the time. So they both did know what they needed to protect. It's just that the fortifications in either case didn't end up getting used much.

Long war was a well planned and carefully developed scheme that could easily have worked, except the execution of the plan was abysmal and Germany would insist on not behaving as the plan required.

Now that is interesting. For once the country of interedt has most of our hindsight data and can plan accordingly. Now they just need a good plan

Essentially the issue is that most of the non-aligned nations of Europe think that just saying you are neutral is good enough. After all it worked for the Dutch and others in the Great War, so will surely work again. Plus with Italy thrashed and Germany clearly a paper tiger humbled by France, they can't see the threat. All of this is obviously wrong, but until opinions change there's not much the Foreign Office can do, especially as they half believe that analysis themselves.

Well with we commentators not actually knowing how the war goes aside from the fact that it does end up happening (and that the Brits presumably do win eventually), its hard to knock the neutrals for their attitudes. The Axis does look fairly pathetically crap, aside from the wildcard Japan that everyone is very concerned about. The Brits and France are worried about Germany but then again, the Brits and France have always been worried about Germany. Unfortunatly the neutrals think this will be a new trench war when in reality they have a much more mobile Napoleonic war incoming, where room to manouvere is king and so they'll be flattened by one or both sides just to get some space.

The Dutch and swiss should be the most concerned. In most HOI games I've seen or played, the get atracked first before anyone else.

 

[AtlanticFriend]

Oh yes it's the winning move for the Basque. But for French it's a desperation move.
Recognising an independent Basque country would shatter relations with the Republicans and I cannot see France doing that unless the Republicans have basically lost - "Well we've lost the rest Spain, lets see if we can at least get something" type thinking.

Well, if Republican Spain starts drifting off the French sphere of influence, it's a move worth considering (and implementing) for the Quai d'Orsay.

 

[paulm002]

I'll admit I was worried it could all seem a bit dragged out so I am relieved that at least some readers enjoyed it.

I will use this opportunity to chime in again and say that I am still loving this venerable institution.

I look forward to whatever is next whether it be the effects of Spain on the Armies perception of armoured warfare, an evaluation of global rubber production or, hopefully, a more successful than current away tour for the English Cricket team.

 

[Sir Charles Dewitt]

As a True American and (sorta) Southerner, I am indignant at the ignorance of one of our staple providers of absolutely horrendous cuisine (It's not actually that bad, but don't eat there often because you'll wind up looking like a beached whale). As a man of culture and extensive foreign travels, I forgive the lack of awareness and explain that Cracker Barrel is a massive chain eatery focused on "Comfort Food" from the US South. Pretty sure they also don't serve alcohol, those Baptists... bless their hearts.

I recall a story told by my former school teacher. A friend of his from the east coast was visiting so my teacher decided to treat him to the best restaurant in town. Specifically, the local Cracker Barrel. And after the meal had been served, the friend from out east said: "I finally understand the meaning of the phrase "Greasy Spoon".".

("Greasy Spoon" by the by is slang for a... low quality eatery.)

 

[Sir Charles Dewitt]

I find it interesting that the Soviets aren't factoring into anyone's threat assessments at the moment (except maybe the Axis). As far as Britain's concerned it's France vs Germany with Japan off to the side looking for the best moment to cause trouble. My understanding is that given their (The Soviets) poor showing in the Polish-Soviet War of 1920 (and their later poor showing during the Winter War with Finland) the Soviets are kind of considered a non-threat by anyone who isn't in their immediate vicinity. But I'm still worried about those godless communists rising up when everyone's distracted to try and spread the revolution across Europe. Perhaps the incident with the Japanese tank forces will cause a reassessment of the Red Army. Or perhaps not, given that the Japanese armoured units are possibly one of the lowest rated of any major power in the world. (I'm trying to avoid describing the Japanese forces in absolutes in case anyone surprises me with a major power that had even worse tanks)

 

[El Pip]

As a True American and (sorta) Southerner, I am indignant at the ignorance of one of our staple providers of absolutely horrendous cuisine (It's not actually that bad, but don't eat there often because you'll wind up looking like a beached whale). As a man of culture and extensive foreign travels, I forgive the lack of awareness and explain that Cracker Barrel is a massive chain eatery focused on "Comfort Food" from the US South. Pretty sure they also don't serve alcohol, those Baptists... bless their hearts.

This explains many things. As I am instinctively distrustful of all forms of teetotalism I will give it a wide berth; "You cannot trust a man who does not trust himself to get drunk", wisdom that surely must apply to chefs and restaurants in general.

Makes sense. They have a long history of trade together. And most of it is very exciting and full of sex, drugs and violence. I imagine British-Chinease trade historians are the rock gods of early modern history.

Can't promise going full on rock god, but when we get to looking at Anglo-Sino trade (and other) relations I have found a few delightfully obscure bits to drag kicking and screaming into the plot.

Now that is interesting. For once the country of interedt has most of our hindsight data and can plan accordingly. Now they just need a good plan

And to actually account for the enemy's actions. And the ability to execute said plan properly. And hoping no massive unexpected strategic surprises emerge...

Well with we commentators not actually knowing how the war goes aside from the fact that it does end up happening (and that the Brits presumably do win eventually), its hard to knock the neutrals for their attitudes. The Axis does look fairly pathetically crap, aside from the wildcard Japan that everyone is very concerned about. The Brits and France are worried about Germany but then again, the Brits and France have always been worried about Germany. Unfortunatly the neutrals think this will be a new trench war when in reality they have a much more mobile Napoleonic war incoming, where room to manouvere is king and so they'll be flattened by one or both sides just to get some space.

The Dutch and swiss should be the most concerned. In most HOI games I've seen or played, the get atracked first before anyone else.

The Swiss are going to be safe, if the AI goes off in the direction I will intervene to stop it. Invading Switzerland isn't particularly tricky given the Swiss defence plans (abandon the central flat-ish bits where all the people are and go and hide in the really mountainous bits) but it is fairly pointless. Doesn't gain you that much, you have to assume the Swiss would get most valuables out of the country or into the mountains out of your reach, but would be a bugger to garrison.

The Dutch however should be a bit less relaxed than they are about war breaking out.

Well, if Republican Spain starts drifting off the French sphere of influence, it's a move worth considering (and implementing) for the Quai d'Orsay.

Definitely.

I will use this opportunity to chime in again and say that I am still loving this venerable institution.

I look forward to whatever is next whether it be the effects of Spain on the Armies perception of armoured warfare, an evaluation of global rubber production or, hopefully, a more successful than current away tour for the English Cricket team.

Such supportive messages should be regularly chimed and I thank you for them. I can reassure you that we will be seeing all of the things you look forward to at some point in the mysterious future.

(I've finally put together an update order list in my big file-of-notes-and-ideas so I know what I intend to cover in future updates. All of those things are on the list).

I recall a story told by my former school teacher. A friend of his from the east coast was visiting so my teacher decided to treat him to the best restaurant in town. Specifically, the local Cracker Barrel. And after the meal had been served, the friend from out east said: "I finally understand the meaning of the phrase "Greasy Spoon".".

("Greasy Spoon" by the by is slang for a... low quality eatery.)

Low Quality is a bit harsh, I've been to some incredible greasy spoons. And some bloody awful ones I'll admit. But after a night of tunnel inspections I will take a greasy spoon over almost any type of other restaurant .

I find it interesting that the Soviets aren't factoring into anyone's threat assessments at the moment (except maybe the Axis). As far as Britain's concerned it's France vs Germany with Japan off to the side looking for the best moment to cause trouble. My understanding is that given their (The Soviets) poor showing in the Polish-Soviet War of 1920 (and their later poor showing during the Winter War with Finland) the Soviets are kind of considered a non-threat by anyone who isn't in their immediate vicinity. But I'm still worried about those godless communists rising up when everyone's distracted to try and spread the revolution across Europe. Perhaps the incident with the Japanese tank forces will cause a reassessment of the Red Army. Or perhaps not, given that the Japanese armoured units are possibly one of the lowest rated of any major power in the world. (I'm trying to avoid describing the Japanese forces in absolutes in case anyone surprises me with a major power that had even worse tanks)

The Soviets are a relatively low on everyone's radar (bar the Poles obviously). This seems to be broadly OTL and I think it's partly what you outlined and partly a tribute to the success of Litvinov who did convince people the Soviets were very collective security focused. The various Franco-Soviet agreements did convince a lot (but not all) of Paris for instance that the Soviets were very unlikely to start bulldozing their way West.

Which is probably broadly right, Stalin is an opportunist who wants to regain the old Tsarist Russian lands but he is no Trotsky and is happy with revolution in one country. If no amazing opportunity presents itself then I think Stalin would avoid war as he has far more important domestic issues to attend to - 5 year plans and all those wreckers and sabouters who need purging for starters...

If you count the Dutch as a major power then they were definitely the worse armoured force. Honestly I would count them just because the story is quite darkly comic - The story of the Dutch Army's lone Renault FT - TL,DR version- they had a single FT tank that was intended to prove Holland was terrible tank country and so the Dutch could ignore tanks. Sometimes it did (it sank a couple of times) but many times it didn't and failed to fail. By the time they'd finally accepted that tanks could work in Holland it was too late.

El Pip Confession Time;
Against my own best judgement and advice I have finished another chapter of Butterfly Redux. In my defence it was already 75% done and it's been nagging at me for being incomplete and so nearly done that I had to finish it. In any event if you were curious as to exactly why the Italian Navy performed so spectacularly badly in the Abyssinian War you will find some of the answers in the revised, improved, working pictured (and better pictures not just working links to the old pictures) Chapter 13

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

And to actually account for the enemy's actions. And the ability to execute said plan properly. And hoping no massiv...

Pffft. Everyone knows strategic planning has nothing to do with reality.

The Soviets are a relatively low on everyone's radar (bar the Poles obviously). This seems to be broadly OTL and I think it's partly what you outlined and partly a tribute to the success of Litvinov who did convince people the Soviets were very collective security focused. The various Franco-Soviet agreements did convince a lot (but not all) of Paris for instance that the Soviets were very unlikely to start bulldozing their way West.

Well, France doesn't really have a choice anyway. They have to focus on Germany. And of the other powers that could take on Russia and might want to, Germany is also focused on France and her allaince, and the British can't realy do anything on their own without one or both of those countries as well.

If no amazing opportunity presents itself then I think Stalin would avoid war as he has far more important domestic issues to attend to - 5 year plans and all those wreckers and sabouters who need purging for starters...

Given that if he manages to secure absolute power and industrialise russoa he's essebtislly won the greatest untapped power on earth bar a really down and out US, I'm not sure why he would want to go to war. Maybe in the east, because those Japs need to be removed eventually and China looks tasty but Europe? Hitler doesn't have the resources and no one else wants to fight Russia so it's difficult to see a war happening for a couple decades unless of course, ww2 happens and drags them into it.

If you count the Dutch as a major power

Debatable always and in this period...sort of? But it's unfair because there is a vast gulf between the top tier powers and everyone else, and between empires in general and everyone else. So yes they are a big power generally (especially economically) but they just so happen to be surrounded by three of the five top powers in the world right now. So neutrality would be a really good idea usually but of course one of those powers is being led by a a bunch of megalomaniacs who want to take over all of Europe so...