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However, who (or rather who hasn't) voted for Yvanoff is, as I believe, more insightful. For the past three days, Yvanoff has only been voted by Hax and Yakman. Assuming the voting record is correct (I did find on Day 3 that Panzer record that Yakman voted for Yakman on vote 226, which obviously wasn't the case), this shows that people have been avoiding him. Maybe packmates not wanting to vote him?
LOL. Says the one who's been evading attention the whole game.

Funny how the cases against me by aedan and Dedonus could be turned against them just as easily..... Dedonus's looking shiftier and shiftier by the minutes. I'd advise the village to take a good look at him once aedan's dead (especially if I'm dead too and my innocence proven). Especially since Dedonus is nicely evading aedan in this post

Also, yes randakar is likely not a wolf, but what does this prove exactly ? (also, randy could've been set up by his packmate to force an open outing and hunt a 100% sure JL member, while clearing randy's name, but that looks quite far fetched)
 
This is ridiculous and completely out of touch with reality. Randy was not run up because he was inactive, he was run up because his behavior was suspicious for those he attempted to run up and the cases he made. This isn't even just my personal speculation, of which I'd have motive to make such a claim regardless of its veracity. Wagonlitz himself repeatedly noted that Randy was a good lynch despite everything.
Let's bring back the case you made on Randy then(at least, I haven't really found any other case on him when going back through the thread? May have missed something though...):

I have to admit that I don't understand Wagonlitz's crusade against Alynkio. Sure he has only five game related posts, but they have decent substance to them, particularly the one yesterday where he made a case against Wagonlitz. I suppose usually Alynkio is a bit more active, but he's not so quiet to the extent I'd really say he's suspicious for it. Nor do I recall him being more likely to be quiet as a wolf anyways. And for Wagonlitz's other point on Alynkio, that he hasn't face pressure, I also find that weak. A lot of people haven't faced pressure. In fact of the living players I'd say on Yakman and maybe Wagonlitz have faced serious pressure over the past couple days. Singling out Alynkio feels weird.

I also have to admit that a substantial part of the reason I'm skeptical here is that all of this "case" can easily apply to me as much as Alynkio, and I know I'm a villager.

Now weak though the case is, it's not bad per se and with no dead wolves yet, it could be on to something. The part that I really don't get is Wagonlitz asking every single person what they think about Alynkio. I don't think I've ever seen Wagonlitz have such a single minded obsession with a single candidate before, not with a case as weak as this. I don't know what to make of that.

For the other candidates, Randy's case against Esemesas is weak. The wolves would've spread their votes out (ok I'm with you), so they would've voted for a major candidate (I don't think that necessarily follows), therefore one of Esemesas and Hax has to be a baddie (that's some strained logic). Neither major candidate was a wolf, so I think it could well be misleading to make assumptions about how the wolves voted. I also question Randy's defense of Hax here, more so than his logic to accuse Esemesas/Hax. Hax is "too crazy" to be a wolf? Complete nonsense, Hax can absolutely be crazy as a wolf.

Yakman's a loon. Could be a wolf, but I wouldn't bet on it. He's ranting about some Yvanoff-Alynkio cooperation, but I don't see it.

Ramius is an easy lynch. He always makes himself suspicious and is low on useful activity, which makes him a perfect scapegoat. But he also this way regardless of role, so he could also be a wolf. If a better candidate can't be found, lynching him might not be a bad idea.

For the case makers, I'm somewhat suspicious of Wagonlitz and Randy. Wagonlitz is really going after Alynkio, and I feel its excessive for the quality of the case he's peddling. That isn't necessarily suspicious, but it feels off to me. Randy's case against esemesas is really strained, which I'd say is unusual for him. I also think Hax has a potential point about him having possibly hunted Caillean.

I think that last point is worth some pressure.

Vote Randakar
The case you made here is boils down to "your cases are bad and you should feel bad". I agree he's not his usual self, but a baddie Randy is not a bad cases Randy. His posts just scream "I've no idea what's going on and need to get in a quick vote". Combine this with Caillean asking for sub because she's too busy and it's not much of a stretch to assume Randy's busy as well.
We've both seen baddie Randy and goodie Randy, and we both know that a baddie Randy is not an inacitve Randy, he's more competent than that.
You say the case is not based on his inactivity but on his wierd voting, but it should be fairly obvious that his bad voting is a direct consequence of his inactivity/not paying attention to the game. So it might not technically be a "lol he's a zombie" case, it IS for all intents and purposes.

Of course, that doesn't prove he's a goodie, but it isn't in any way a wolfsign either.
We don't really have any info on him either way because of this, which made the runup against him just a 1/4 random chance(or whatever the odds of a random pick were by then) of hitting a wolf. However, him not really paying attention also means that(besides the fact the he needs to get active or ask for a sub :p) most people will not really think he's enough of a goodie to oppose such a switch, making him seemingly the ideal scapegoat.



Twice Wagonlitz notes Randy is a good candidate, one of them as I raised objections to the solidification of Alynkio as the main candidate, and the second after the outing and after I had managed to get Randy above Alynkio in votes. So anyone who at this point tries to claim Randy was solely the target of a nefarious scheme to save Alynkio is either lying through their teeth or living in a delusional facsimile of reality.
You know, the JL can be wrong too. Unless we have good reason to assume that the "randy should be targetted" claim was based on a scan we shouldn't just blindly follow the JL and actually use our own brains. And if we look at Wagon's explanation of Randy being suspicious to him:
I'm suspicious of randy too. Today we hang Alynkio, though. Randy can hang tomorrow.

Part of why I'm suspicious of randy is how his case on me was super flawed in that I didn't allow fall gelb, though that might just be down to him being busy. He had super flawed logic on why the set of ese and Hax had to contain one and just one wolf, though. Wolves don't distribute their votes like that and randy knows it, so he really comes off as a likeli wolf.

You have a point that in case Alynkio is a waffle a TIE wouldn't end things. I had completely missed that point.
It is based on the same idea of "your cases are bad and you should feel bad", which is, based on previous experience with lynching people(and specifically Randy :p) on the basis of inactivity, not a good basis for a lynch.
And that point you made there also ignores that Wagon thought you too, were suspicious, so if we were to consistently apply this "the JL thinks he's suspicious" blindly then you aren't exactly a bad lynch.





That defense of yours also did not address the point of you lying low on day 1/2 and then sudenly springing into action when a wolf gets lynched. While of course not definite proof, it doesn't exactly work in your favour.


On a different note, mind explaining why you think Yvanoff is more suspicious than you? I agree his PM schenanigans appear weird, but he at least has the day 1 votesnipe/tie prevention going for him, which is something I wouldn't understand a wolf doing. Unlike you, he at least still has SOMETHING clearing going for him.
Also: what do you think of Dedonus and Alxeu/Ramius? What do you think of their involvement in what looks like an attempted packmate save.
 
Official Day 1 votecount

jeray2000: 6
beartjah[42]
esemesas[55 Yakman -> 79 Arkasas -> 86]
Arkasas[46 Yakman -> 68 jeray2000 -> 89]
Xarkan
[93 Arkasas -> 105]
Yvanoff[38 alynkio -> 74 brovahkiin -> 95 Xarkan -> 125]
Hax[41 Yvanoff -> 61 brovahkiin -> 78 Hax -> 83 ramius3443 -> 87 esemesas -> 98 Arkasas -> 117 jeray2000 -> 122 aedan777 -> 124 randakar -> 126 Caillean -> 127 Xarkan -> 128 Yakman -> 129]

Xarkan: 3

Dedonus[43]
Yakman[44 beartjah -> 69 jeray2000 -> 76 brovahkiin -> 94]
Wagonlitz
[60 Arkasas -> 96]

brovahkiin: 1
alynkio[66 jeray2000 -> 72]

Arkasas: 1
aedan777[49]

Yakman: 1
ramius3443[81 esemesas -> 82]

esemesas: 1
brovahkiin[39 Hax -> 85 Arkasas -> 90]

randakar: 1
Caillean[106]

Caillean: 1
randakar[109]

Not Voted: 1
jeray2000
 
Vote Aedan

He's easily the most suspicious person from the sudden switch over to randy. He was doing everything to make sure it was randakar who died yesterday. I joined in that mess, but in my own defense, I was only in the game starting about an hour before deadline, and wasn't entirely clear as to what everything going on was. My initial resignation on voting alynkio was because I wasn't sure if he was a wolf or not, but I assumed he was further ahead than he was, and therefore was the only viable lynch to avoid a tie.

Meanwhile, it is worth noting that Dedonus and Alynkio had nothing connecting them until yesterday, when they both voted for randy, and the same goes for aedan and Dedonus, as well. Literally no vote interaction between them until yesterday, at least.

Inclined to believe that Dedonus and Aedan are wolves by what I've read and seen so far. However, I would argue that I would not fit in such a pack as it is too blatantly obvious, even excluding yesterday, as it would have meant on day 2, all the wolves but alyn were voting the same person at deadline.
 
An excuse I dare invoke for my behavior yesterday is that as a still relatively new player I didn't immediately realize what Wagon was doing and even once I did I still wasn't sure it was actually it. This excuse certainly does not work for a player such as aedan, who certainly understood what was happening at once given his vast experience of the game.
There was always the possibility the Wagonlitz was doing something dumb. He'd never done this before, either as a wolf, or as a JL villager. That I should've somehow seen through this and completely predicted that Wagonlitz was a JL member remains silly. The people who most likely would've seen through and know he was a JL member going after a wolf were in fact wolves themselves. At which point your whole little reasoning here collapses back in on itself, because if I'm a vastly experienced player who surely would've seen through what Wagonlitz was doing, why on earth would I go and stick my neck out to save a packmate I "knew" had been scanned by a JL member, as your theory goes. That literally makes no sense. There was no way to save Alynkio under such circumstances and all I would do is put a massive target on my back. Not to mention, it's out of character for me to try to protect packmates anyways.

No, the people most implicated by the Alynkio affair are those who either blindly followed Wagonlitz (predicting that he had a scan on Alynkio), or those who followed me on Randy as a way to possibly save Alynkio while letting me take the bulk of the blame. Even the latter might not be the case if Randy turns out to be a wolf, because in that case, why would wolves try to save a potentially scanned packmate by driving up an unscanned one.

He tried to get the lynch off alynkio, and actively asked player to switch to randy based on a weak case.
Again with the claim that the Randy case was weak. It wasn't, and it isn't. Randy was making cases that, short on time or not, he should've known were poor. The hunt on Caillean was a potential point against him. And again, this isn't just me saying it to cover my behind, Wagonlitz also, twice, said that Randy was a good target to lynch. Even after he outed Alynkio, he still mentioned Randy (and you) as good potential lynches for today before mentioning me. Since we know Wagonlitz was a villager, and a JL member at that, him agreeing with me on Randy supports my position a fair amount.

Also, proposed to tie alynkio with another player saying that if alynkio was a baddie the village had nothing to fear from a tie, forgetting about the obvious threat of snipers.
That's just completely misinterpreting what happened, quite possibly intentionally. I posed that scenario (Alynkio being a baddie and in a tie) as something Wagon was ranting about defending against when Alynkio had 5 votes, Esemesas had 2 votes, and everyone else had 1. It would have been exceptionally difficult for four wolf snipes in that scenario to make a tie that didn't include Alynkio, and my point was to highlight that Wagonlitz was not being consistent in his determination to see Alynkio hang, but also unwilling to see him in a tie, which would've been fine if Alynkio was a wolf. This suggests that Wagonlitz was not being honest in his motives in running up Alynkio and his anti-tie rhetoric just an act to ensure Alynkio got lynched without opposition. Sure in hindsight that wasn't the case, but when suspicious activity happens, ignoring it is usually to the detriment of the village.

In any event, once the Randy wagon got going I explicitly mentioned that I would snipe to Alynkio if it seemed a tie might happen, so trying to claim I was indifferent to the possibility of a tie is baseless.

A case very similar to mine.
Not at all. I saw Wagonlitz acting out of character and being suspicious, so I tried to oppose him by lynching a candidate I saw as most suspicious. You saw Wagonlitz tunneling on your packmate, tried to vote Wagonlitz, attempted to ferret out information from Wagonlitz to find out if he was the Seer or merely a JL member, and then jumped on my Randy case when it gained traction. Very different cases.

The case you made here is boils down to "your cases are bad and you should feel bad". I agree he's not his usual self, but a baddie Randy is not a bad cases Randy. His posts just scream "I've no idea what's going on and need to get in a quick vote". Combine this with Caillean asking for sub because she's too busy and it's not much of a stretch to assume Randy's busy as well.
We've both seen baddie Randy and goodie Randy, and we both know that a baddie Randy is not an inacitve Randy, he's more competent than that.
You say the case is not based on his inactivity but on his wierd voting, but it should be fairly obvious that his bad voting is a direct consequence of his inactivity/not paying attention to the game. So it might not technically be a "lol he's a zombie" case, it IS for all intents and purposes.
I've already addressed this, but I'll give a quick rundown again. I'm not saying Randy is suspicious for inactivity. I'm saying he's suspicious because he cases are bad, even for inactive randy. Even inactive Randy does better than this. And the hunt on caillean at a point she was unable to contribute and asked for a sub could also point to Randy.
It is based on the same idea of "your cases are bad and you should feel bad", which is, based on previous experience with lynching people(and specifically Randy :p) on the basis of inactivity, not a good basis for a lynch.
And that point you made there also ignores that Wagon thought you too, were suspicious, so if we were to consistently apply this "the JL thinks he's suspicious" blindly then you aren't exactly a bad lynch.
I never said to blindly follow Wagonlitz, you're just putting words in my mouth. My point in bringing up that Wagonlitz was also suspicious of Randy is that it bolsters my point that Randy is suspicious from an objective point of view. Wagonlitz is a confirmed goodie, so if he was saying Randy was suspicious then Randy was likely suspicious. You've acted like me being suspicious of Randy is a sign I was a wolf pursuing a bad case, but if the only known JL member agreed with my case, then maybe my case wasn't bad and I'm not suspicious for pursuing it. Wagonlitz has also played with Randy for a while, so he knows him better than you. I'm not saying this clears me, but trying to act like me being suspicious of Randy is a point against me is simply ludicrous in light of the facts.

That defense of yours also did not address the point of you lying low on day 1/2 and then sudenly springing into action when a wolf gets lynched. While of course not definite proof, it doesn't exactly work in your favour.
It's irrelevant and indicative of nothing. There's nothing to work with day 1, and day 2 doesn't add much, so I usually lay low on those days. Literally look at any recent game for proof.

On a different note, mind explaining why you think Yvanoff is more suspicious than you? I agree his PM schenanigans appear weird, but he at least has the day 1 votesnipe/tie prevention going for him, which is something I wouldn't understand a wolf doing.
How does that remotely count in his favor? Making an unnecessary tie day 1 would put a huge amount of attention on the responsible party, giving a big risk to whomever tried. Meanwhile piling on the main candidate for the day would prevent someone else from potentially being the subject of a last minute vote switch. Yvanoff jumping on the main candidate to ensure his lynch and calling it tie prevention does not remotely count in his favor.

And I know I'm a villager, so obviously I'm going to think Yvanoff is more suspicious than me. And as I mentioned to Yvanoff above, if I was a wolf who should've known that Wagonlitz has a JL member who had Alynkio's number, why would I have gone and stuck my neck out to run up Randy instead? That's not how I operate as a wolf, I don't try to save doomed packmates.

Also: what do you think of Dedonus and Alxeu/Ramius? What do you think of their involvement in what looks like an attempted packmate save.
Both of them are potential wolves. Neither of them have as much against them as Yvanoff, so I'm going after Yvanoff first, but both of them look bad for jumping on my randy case. Dedonus for following the person he had previously been voting, and Alxeu because the combination of Ramius' inactivity and erratic votes and Alxeu subbing in to immediately vote a wolf in the lead, then switching to the main counter candidate reeks of wolfishness. Still, I doubt they're both wolves, since all four wolves piling on to my Alynkio case seems unlikely in my opinion.
 
Yakman: Erratic behavior. Goodie points for his crusade against alynkio. Space wolves?

Yvanoff: Slight baddie vibes. Dunno why really but some his posts are a bit off. Followed the late bandwagon on randakar. Good lynch candidate IMO.

randakar: Don't like some of his posts. The hunt on Caillean could perhaps have been a mercy kill for their road trip? Goodie points for being the counter candidate against alynkio the wolf.

bearthjah: Goodie points for being the fourth guy on alynkio.

esemesas: Neutral.

Dedonus: Followed the late bandwagon on randakar and didn't switch after the outing. Very shady.

aedan777: shady but I must say that some his post-outing posts are quite villagerish. I dunno...

ramius3443: Neutral but my gut feeling tells me that he is just a goodie zombie.
 
There was always the possibility the Wagonlitz was doing something dumb. He'd never done this before, either as a wolf, or as a JL villager. That I should've somehow seen through this and completely predicted that Wagonlitz was a JL member remains silly. The people who most likely would've seen through and know he was a JL member going after a wolf were in fact wolves themselves. At which point your whole little reasoning here collapses back in on itself, because if I'm a vastly experienced player who surely would've seen through what Wagonlitz was doing, why on earth would I go and stick my neck out to save a packmate I "knew" had been scanned by a JL member, as your theory goes. That literally makes no sense. There was no way to save Alynkio under such circumstances and all I would do is put a massive target on my back. Not to mention, it's out of character for me to try to protect packmates anyways.
Tell me what is there to lose in saving your packmate like you did ?
If it had been successful:
- alynkio would've lived another day. Even doomed, that meant the village had to waste another lynch on him
- you likely would've hunted Wagon anyway, reducing the size of the JL in the meantime
- since the save would only have been able to succede with the helps of fools like me, you can blame it on them. Who will know who are the villagers and who are the wolves in this mess ? Nobody, that's who. So you can make a case early on one of the villagers to evade the lynch while misleading the village

If it's unsuccessful:
- you can still turn it around using point 3. See, you were already voting randy from earlier today, so either your attempt at saving your packmate wasn't successful. So what ? People tend not to notice this kind of thing, so you're safe. Or if it picks up speed, it's because a couple villagers were swayed by your lies, and so you can turn on them the following day like you did (instantly voting me to avoid taking the blame).

What did you stand to lose ?
And, I believe your are not dumb, aedan. Yes, you have a reputation for throwing your packmate under the bus.... If you stand to gain from it ! If you stand to gain from saving a packmate, I doubt you'd hesitate either. And you didn't, as we saw yesterday


Not at all. I saw Wagonlitz acting out of character and being suspicious, so I tried to oppose him by lynching a candidate I saw as most suspicious. You saw Wagonlitz tunneling on your packmate, tried to vote Wagonlitz, attempted to ferret out information from Wagonlitz to find out if he was the Seer or merely a JL member, and then jumped on my Randy case when it gained traction. Very different cases.
So tell me how you can be so sure that I am a wolf ? Oh, and answers like "because I am JL" or "because I am the Seer" don't work, because as a matter of fact I am not a wolf. But you know for a fact that I am one. Something's not right here
Nice attempt at portraying two nearly identical cases as different, though
 
OK, so the PM stuff is going to pursue me for a while. I better explain it now.

Very simply, at first seeing Wagon tunneling without a case on alynkio made me think of only one possibility: Wagon was a waffle trying to get a villager lynched.

After a while, my brain saw the light and realized there could be another explanation: Wagon could be JL and alynkio a scanned wolf !

But, here's a slight dilemma: as a villager, how do you know it is one case and not the other ? In insight I was really dumb - it's unlikely a wolf would make so much noise and draw so many attention to himself - but at this time I was still leaning towards Wagon being a baddie.

Still, because I thought Wagon being JL was a decent possibility, I sent him a PM asking him whether or not alynkio was a scanned wolf.

Wagon didn't reply; he later told me it was obviously because he wouldn't reply "yes I'm JL" to someone who might be a wolf. Which is really stupid IMHO. No doubt the wolves had seen Wagon tunneling on one of them without a case the whole day, it's likely even though I sent the PM pre outing that he was at least very suspicious in their eyes and had a fair probability of being hunted. Why not take the risk of PMing me back ?

At any rate, I interpreted this lack of answer badly and thought it validated the first option, fool that I am.

Now I know that one of the worst thing that can happen at WW is being on the defensive like I am here (followed by revenge voting, which I might do since aedan is pretty suspicious if you ask me). So I'm pretty sure that I'm dead (unless there's another outing), and I have no problem with that, but once it turns out I'm a villager please take a good look at aedan and don't be fooled by the lies he'll probably throw away as a defense (there will be regular reminders for you to do that until deadline)

Please post the PMs here, until then I will...
VOTE YVANOFF
 
@randakar

Where are you?

Please post the PMs here, until then I will...
VOTE YVANOFF

I hope you plan to vote aedan and break the tie, if randy doesn't show up. I'm not switching off aedan. Yvanoff's PMs are not suspicious enough to lynch him over aedan.
 
Please post the PMs here, until then I will...
VOTE YVANOFF
There. Happy now ?

Yvanoff said:
Hey Wagon,

it seems alynkio's going to get lynched today.
It's probably me, but I've been wondering whether you're the Seer/in contact with the Seer ?

If you're not, please disregard and throw that PM to the dustbin on account on me becoming crazy

Thanks !
Yvanoff said:
Listen Wagon, obviously I'll look suspicious in your eyes now.

An answer would've gone a long way into making me trust you. As it was, as a villager - how the hell am I supposed to distinguish between the wolves pushing for the lynch of a villager and the JL trying to lynch a scanned wolf ? I simply can not. I realized it could be the JL pushing for a wolf to be killed, but had no way to be sure.

Well, anyway. I suppose you're likely dead, and I realize I've been playing the wolves's game all along. If aedan is one he'll be able to divert attention onto me effortlessly. At least with alynkio dead parity is a bit further
Wagon answered this in a message which might be interesting but since he sent his answer between deadline and update I'm not sure that'd be right to post it here.

PM timing; 21:40 CEST for the first, 22:04 CEST for the second
 
Last edited by a moderator:
There. Happy now ?



Wagon answered this in a message which might be interesting but since he sent his answer between deadline and update I'm not sure that'd be right to post it here.

PM timing; 21:40 GMT for the first, 22:04 GMT for the second

Yeah, he wasn't dead at deadline. Only alynkio was, by standard WW rules.
 
@Hax

Switch your vote. A tie is not in the village's interest.
 
Unvote aedan
Vote Yvanoff
 
What the hell, Hax?
 
If I had let that tie stand, and aedan and Yvanoff were both villagers, the game would've been lost right there.
 
Doesn't comport groundbreaking revelations but it could influence people, well there it is anyway:
Wagonlitz said:
I still slant towards you being a villager, to be fair. Aedan is notoriously hard to read, though he did say that it was very uncharacteristically of me to push Alynkio like that. And he knows I don't do such things as a wolf, so he ought to have realised it was a JL push.

And of course I'm not gonna answer you shortly to deadline where you still can get to set the hunt on me, just in case you were a wolf who was a bit in doubt whether I should be eaten or not.:p