Werewolf CCXLIII: Councilism

[beartjah]

Whelp, doesn't seem like there's a sub coming.


Quick note on yesterday: I legit thought that Wagon's post was an outting, and just signed off immediately after. That's how little i knew of what's going on It worked out in the end though


There's a bunch of people saying Avernite is looking bad, but I don't quite understand what's going on with that. Could someone enlighten me on the how/why of Avernite?


The inactivity case on liefwarrior seems a bit strange considering that Dedo gave other candidates that fit an inactivity based case far better than lief does.
hdk's record is just terrible. It should also be noted that 2 out his 3 votes are throwaways. I'd be behind pushing him as a candidate
graymarch I'm not entirely sure on. The record is again terrible, but with him I could quite easily see him(her?) being confused as his posts are indicating. Remember that he's fairly new here, and I still remember the confusion I had in my first couple of games... He could be baddie lying low but I'm leaning more towards him being a confused villager.

Aedan's case on sleepy seems good to me. It's another inactivity based case and I'm leaning a lot more towards baddie with sleepy, he ought to be able to give better analysis, or at least insight in what his thinking is. He's been around for long enough to be able to do that.

Kinda interesting that there's a lot of inactivity based cases today.

Sleepy is currently pushing Dedonus on the idea that Arky's day 1 might be an alibi vote. @Sleepyhead any particular reason you believe this to be an alibi vote?

As a class, people who take part in last minute shenanigans are more likely to be wolves, just as those that vote early then don't move are (yes, I know this includes me, but that's time restraints, not wolfdom).

Not neccesarily. Villagers often participate on last minute shake ups to make things harder to control for anyone(and therefore also for the wolves). Wolves can often post early and disappear, leaving their packmates to fend for themselves while keeping a low profile.


I need to go so I'll throw my vote in on Sleepy, in agreement with Aedan's case on him. hopefully I'll be able to return later today but I'm not entriely sure yet.

VOTE SLEEPY

 

[Yakman]

Sorry, I was very busy yesterday and likely will be today...

just to get a vote on the board:

vote @liefwarrior

 

[Sleepyhead]

Whelp, doesn't seem like there's a sub coming.


Quick note on yesterday: I legit thought that Wagon's post was an outting, and just signed off immediately after. That's how little i knew of what's going on It worked out in the end though


There's a bunch of people saying Avernite is looking bad, but I don't quite understand what's going on with that. Could someone enlighten me on the how/why of Avernite?


The inactivity case on liefwarrior seems a bit strange considering that Dedo gave other candidates that fit an inactivity based case far better than lief does.
hdk's record is just terrible. It should also be noted that 2 out his 3 votes are throwaways. I'd be behind pushing him as a candidate
graymarch I'm not entirely sure on. The record is again terrible, but with him I could quite easily see him(her?) being confused as his posts are indicating. Remember that he's fairly new here, and I still remember the confusion I had in my first couple of games... He could be baddie lying low but I'm leaning more towards him being a confused villager.

Aedan's case on sleepy seems good to me. It's another inactivity based case and I'm leaning a lot more towards baddie with sleepy, he ought to be able to give better analysis, or at least insight in what his thinking is. He's been around for long enough to be able to do that.

Kinda interesting that there's a lot of inactivity based cases today.

Sleepy is currently pushing Dedonus on the idea that Arky's day 1 might be an alibi vote. @Sleepyhead any particular reason you believe this to be an alibi vote?




Not neccesarily. Villagers often participate on last minute shake ups to make things harder to control for anyone(and therefore also for the wolves). Wolves can often post early and disappear, leaving their packmates to fend for themselves while keeping a low profile.


I need to go so I'll throw my vote in on Sleepy, in agreement with Aedan's case on him. hopefully I'll be able to return later today but I'm not entriely sure yet.

VOTE SLEEPY

If you’d read my post you’d understand why. A throwaway vote on a packmate early is a common tendency and the only lead available I can see based on Arkasas’ actions and interactions. His pack is by all logic stronger than the bourgoises. Note that the non-case you just followed show no interest in finding packmates of Arkasas but was merely designed to single me out for some reason.

 

[Dedonus]

Unofficial Vote Count

Liefwarrior: 4 [0>1>2>3>4]
Dedonus [451] [1]
Avernite [453] [2]
the_hdk [455] [3]
Yakman [462] [4]

R.Graymarch: 2 [0>1>2]
Deathbywombat [448] [1]
Culann [2]

Sleepyhead: 2 [0>1>2]
Aedan [456] [1]
Beartjah [461] [2]

Dedonus: 1 [0>1]
Sleepyhead [444]

the_hdk: 1 [0>1]
liefwarrior [452]

Not Voted: A Bunch of People

 

[R.Graymarch]

I don't post a lot, or long posts because I don't have much to add to the conversation and don't see the point of adding unclear thoughts.

For today's lynching, same as before, no real clear thoughts. I also find very suspicious that Sleepyhead votes for the same player (Dedonus) 3 days in a row.

 

[Sleepyhead]

For today's lynching, same as before, no real clear thoughts. I also find very suspicious that Sleepyhead votes for the same player (Dedonus) 3 days in a row.

This is wrong.

I’m also very much ready to switch to another player more likely than not to be in Arkansasas’ pack. I just haven’t found a better candidate and it would appear as if no one else is even looking.

 

[alynkio]

Not much time today but a thought that struck me was, why don't the seer/priest guilds just post their results in the thread? All the members are expendable and the baddies can't really eat all cleared players and all guild members. There is just too many of them? And probably there are baddies in the guilds anyway so they already know the results.

I've been thinking the same. Would also help me wrap my head around this insanity.

A crazy friend was seer-cleared. Said crazy friend subsequently took it upon himself to PM false scan information (of a wolf being found) to Yvanoff.

The idea was, if Yvanoff was a goodie, he probably would spread the data far and wide, or even out the scannee or the crazy friend with the fake scan (if he judged it fake).
If he was a baddie, or so the thought went, he'd contact or kill the fake scannee.

Since he didn't publish the result but also didn't contact the fake scanneee (that we know, the fake scannee may still've been contacted if said player is actually a baddie), it seemed likelier he was a baddie trying to score a kill.

For a while I thought you were the 'crazy friend' (as in... no it's not me who's interested in the symptoms of Chlamydia, I'm just asking, you know, 'for a friend!'), I eventually realized this interpretation doesn't make any sense. I'm guessing your knowledge of your crazy friend being seer-cleared suggests that you're on the seer-council? Feeding Yvanoff fake seer scan data seems like a bit of an odd ploy. The most likely result was that Yvanoff would out the fake outee unless he had some compelling reason not to. Unless your crazy friend had a real target to feed to the village, the fake outee was likely going to die. If all this is true, I could see Yvanoff's failure to out as highly suspicious too. If the fake outee was trustworthy, he would probably have received a bunch of PMs from cultists and the sorc (and maybe a phishing message or 2), which he could have offered the village as proof of a fake outing. Still, this would have been total chaos, and the most likely result would be the death of the (probably innocent) fake outee. A very chaotic plan, not fundamentally an evil one, but I'd definitely want to have this 'crazy friend' priestly scanned. The hunt on Yvanoff is suggestive that there could be foul play involved here (but not proof -- why bother hunting Yvanoff when proof of the scheme didn't die with him?). I don't necessarily think Avernite is evil for bringing this to our attention, however. I like Wombat's characterization of this as a 'message in a bottle'.

For all the faulty reasoning in Liefwarrior's post, which I honestly don't have time to pick through (Beartjah already highlighted one instance), I'm reading this as a moderately villagery reaction to pressure. (Okay... can't resist. If the Capibara vote switchers were evil, who were they protecting? Audren, or Culann? Some 3rd person who wasn't even in trouble? What basis he have for arguing either Audren or Culann is evil? Neither is on the top of my baddie list, though perhaps a case could be made for Audren. Lief doesn't bother making one, however, and simply asserts that a save was made as if it were impossible all 3 day 2 candidates were goodies. Also... his 'case' on me is just a list of the tings that I've done, followed by an exhortation not to trust me. I don't see how any of this adds up to me being evil.... Meh. I digress.)

I think the 2 wolves, 1 zealot, 1 cultist setup seems most likely, though others are legitimately plausible. Cultist is clearly listed as a possible role, and if there were only 2 zealots (or unbalanced packs) and just 1 unattached cultist floating around out there, there'd be very little for the sorc and priest to do. If this is the case, the Bougie wolves are done for, and their cultist is now a free agent. We have very few leads on the Hierarchs (Euro was the only person who was truly an unlikely Hierarch, and he was evil anyway, and dead.)

It's true that baddies sometimes alibi vote their packmates day 1. Sometimes. Killing Dedonus for this alone feels a little much (though we don't really have any solid leads on the Hierarchs).

Killing people for failing to provide analysis (or failing to provide good analysis) is of questionable utility. Not everyone (or even every good player) posts walls of text, though those that do provide a valuable service. Being clear about why you're doing something is good generally speaking and will probably improve your survivability. But does anyone legitimately expect Euro (or HDK) (or Yakman) to go over their opinions of everyone? Does this mean that these players are evil every game? Better to ask if a player who usually provides good analysis is slacking or making cases that feel misleading (i.e. Aedan's case on Sleepy). Not all quiet people are equally suspicious, some are just lazy or confused villagers. How good is the case this person is following, do their actions seem to be done for the benefit of the village?

I'll condone the Sleepy case; the tunneling is a bit much, even if there is a case to made against Dedonus (it's a bit of a stretch case that I don't think justifies a lynch) -- but he's already got a bunch of votes, and I don't like following aedan.

Matthew's post yesterday was semi-decent, makes me like him a little more. Graymarch seems more confused than evil. Beginning to wonder about DeChat and Marco, who are suddenly very busy. DeChat usually seems to be slightly more engaged when he's evil though -- enjoying the plotting etc. Marco though... usually surviving a lynch is invigorating -- it knocks people into gear.

My apologies for missing the vote yesterday. Bunch of stuff conspired to distract me throughout the day. I unfortunately have very little time tonight as well.

As it is, I shall join the push on Dedonus.

This seems to hit the sweet spot of being aggressively spotlight avoiding, and contains the bare minimum of effort. Dedonus was probably one of the flimsier cases too, and it reeks of just not caring.


VOTE MARCO

 

[alxeu]

Votecount, 2 hours, 51 minutes to deadline:

liefwarrior - 4: Dedonus [451], Avernite [453], the_hdk [455], Yakman [462]

R.Graymarch - 2: deathbywombat [448], Culann [454]

Sleepyhead - 2: aedan [456], beartjah [461]

Dedonus - 1: Sleepyhead [444]

the_hdk - 1: liefwarrior [452]

MarcoRossolini - 1: Alynkio [467]

Not Voted - 11: R.Graymarch, MarcoRossolini, MatthewFW190, De Chatillon, Wagonlitz, Audren, Witch Agatha, Johho, Spockyt, TheFatWombat, LatinKaiser

 

[Team Wombat]

I like alynkio's thought process, and Marco was already on my list of possible baddies. I think I'll throw my vote over there for now, although graymarch isn't a bad option either. Not a fan of the liefwarrior case, and sleepy has defended his vote pretty well.

Unvote graymarch
Vote marcorossolini

 

[Witch Agatha]

Sleepyhead votes for the same player (Dedonus) 3 days in a row

True, I mean it IS suspicious. Somehow It feels like he is trying very hard to steer us in that direction.

I just haven’t found a better candidate and it would appear as if no one else is even looking.

While giving the fact that I feel like Liefwarrior or Greymarch are much better candidates.
IMO They look much sketchier and act like wolfs. Giving that the content of their posts isn't the best of help. Having said that, at least Liefwarrior made a better post, even though he did set a case on Alynkio only to forget about it, and vote for someone else... But I'll give the benefit of the doubt.

For now I think the best candidate of the day is

VOTE GREYMARCH

Though I could be wrong, but I've had my suspicion since his "random" vote did have a meaningful impact.

I'll try and be back later today! Since work has been very busy...

 

[Avernite]

This is wrong.

I’m also very much ready to switch to another player more likely than not to be in Arkansasas’ pack. I just haven’t found a better candidate and it would appear as if no one else is even looking.

Or we are looking for generic baddies since those are likely in Arkys pack.

 

[LatinKaiser]

First of all, I'm fine with the liefwarrior case. Although he is putting thought into his votes, I wasn't impressed with his defense, which hinged too much on "I'm just a poor boring vanillager" and "I keep getting run up in every game on bad cases." Considering that so far none of the dead villagers have flipped vanillager (Capibara, who is suspected to have not been a starting memnber of the seer council, had an additional trait) and the two players who have made claims in the thread (alynkio and Culann) haven't claimed vanillager, I find it somewhat suspicious for lief to claim this. Additionally, whether the cases made against him in previous games were fair or not, he WAS a baddie last game, so if his defense is "people were wrong to vote me then based on my behavior and are thus wrong to vote me now," he isn't doing himself any favors in my eyes.

That said, I don't think that I need to pile on lief at this point -- he is already in the lead, so I'm going to vote for another candidate who I think has a decent case against them: Marco. He really has not been pulling his weight since dodging the lynch on Day 1 (yes, I acknowledge that I played a role in that, but I was just looking to break the TIE, and I had no reason to prefer one candidate over the other), and lynching him would give us a clearer picture of the Day 1 voting.

Vote Marco

 

[Dedonus]

Unvote Liefwarrior
Vote R.Graymarch

I would much rather involve the_hdk in this three-way tie (if my math is correct), but I'm fine with R.Graymarch, too, as I see the three players I mentioned in my last post(s) to be 1a, 1b, and 1c.

 

[the_hdk]

your hate of me dedonus has been noted....sadly thre is lil or nothing I can do about it as I do not have traots or roles that can hurt or humilate you,

 

[the_hdk]

besides this is nothing if not defending of a packmate....you sneaky weasel you!

 

[Avernite]

Uhm, hdk, what? I literally have no idea who you accuse Dedonus of defending.

 

[Yakman]

lots of non voters.

 

[Spockyt]

I think of the main cases I prefer HDK, he has contributed absolutely nothing. Something about Leifwarrior’s defence feels a bit off to me, though I can’t quite put my finger in what. That said, I prefer someone who does a dodgy defence to someone who does none whatsoever, aside from a bizzare claim Dedonus is defending a packmate. Greymarch has also been pretty absent, but what he has said I view as more vacant villager than worried wolf.


Vote HDK.

 

[MarcoRossolini]

After going twice as wolf, the one take away from it all is how hopeless the village is. I'm sure there are people here who've been wolves many dozens of times, but the bandwagons formed and they all went for the wrong people.

So, let's have a look at some goodietwoshoes, the ones who vote, provide a reason and push some others but not too much. Unless I've missed some crucial thing, deathbywombat has been oh so helpful in providing all kinds of convenient lists and his "reads" on people and all the rest. How very helpful. Ditto Alynkio, who's also been providing all these convenient blocks of text for people to go on with.

Now, a few games ago I basically voted for no one who died and soon enough the village collapsed around me, so I'll cast a vote that matters. The frontrunners I think are me, hdk & liefwarrior. Hdk's vague protestations of having done nothing ring truer than liefwarrior's wall of vague italic denunciations. After all, a genuine villager truly has nothing to go on, so what are they meant to say?

As such:

Vote Liefwarrior

 

[De Chatillôn]

I could read very fast all the cases we have today and when they're not the best we hace some to choose at least. Seeing the contenders I would love to see some pressure on Marco, so let's go with him

Vote Marco