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Werewolf CCLVIII: Cascadian Revolt

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As promised.

unvote arkasas
vote sleepyhead
 
Unofficial Vote Count:
Almost 1 hour until deadline​

liefwarrior: 4
Ironhide G1 (424)
MAWofDoom (426)
MAWofDoom (426)
Arkasas (440)

Sleepyhead: 2
Randakar (Arkasas 428 -> 435)
Dedonus (Arkasas 437 -> 441)

Arkasas: 1
Sleepyhead (425)

Not Voted: 2 :mad: :mad: :mad:
@Caillean
@liefwarrior
 
I'm a villager (cop) with used priestly powers. I scanned wagon because I thought his consistent chatter about there maybe not being any cultists was a ruse. It was not... I haven't been that active because deadline is during my morning, so I'm not active when the majority of other players are and when there is plenty of analysis to engage with I'm trying to rush in a coffee before I start my day.

vote sleepyhead
 
liefwarrior said:
I'm a villager (cop) with used priestly powers. I scanned wagon because I thought his consistent chatter about there maybe not being any cultists was a ruse. It was not... I haven't been that active because deadline is during my morning, so I'm not active when the majority of other players are and when there is plenty of analysis to engage with I'm trying to rush in a coffee before I start my day.

vote sleepyhead
Click to expand...
Did you scan Wagon 1.0 or Wagon 2.0? Also, if it was Wagon 2.0, why didn't you offer this information yesterday?
 
unvote sleepyhead
vote liefwarrior
 
Unofficial Vote Count:
Deadline​

Sleepyhead: 4
Randakar (Arkasas 428 -> 435)
liefwarrior (443)
MAWofDoom (liefwarrior 426 - > 445)
MAWofDoom (liefwarrior 426 - > 445)

liefwarrior: 3
Ironhide G1 (424)
Arkasas (440)
Dedonus (Arkasas 437 -> Sleepyhead 441 -> 446)

Arkasas: 1
Sleepyhead (425)

Not Voted: 1 :mad: :mad: :mad:
@Caillean
 
Huffs and puffs about lack of activity...
 
Turns out I won't be around tomorrow at deadline instead updates and final vote count will be posted shortly.
 
Day 6 final vote count​

Sleepyhead: 4
Randakar (Arkasas 428 -> 435)
liefwarrior (443)
MAWofDoom (liefwarrior 426 - > 445)
MAWofDoom (liefwarrior 426 - > 445)

liefwarrior: 3
Ironhide G1 (424)
Arkasas (440)
Dedonus (Arkasas 437 -> Sleepyhead 441 -> 446)

Arkasas: 1
Sleepyhead (425)

Not Voted: :mad:
@Caillean

Any objections, complaints or mistakes?
 
Day 6:

Sleepyhead the assassin cultist (turncoat) with a used shot was lynched.

Night 6:

Mawofdoom the alderman villager (cop) was hunted.

Liefwarrior the villager (cop) with used priestly powers was shot by Dedonus.


Evidence suggests the secessionist cell is still active.
 
Colored Vote Counts​

Day 1
yakman-5
liefwarrior (104)
sleepyhead (106)
randakar (109)
alxeu (112)
wagonlitz (aedan 102 > capage 121 > 139)

Panzer-5
Arkasas (87)
Historydude (96)
MAWofdoom (107)
yakman (capage 103 > 120)
hdk (capage 98 > EUROO7 111 > wagonlitz 122 > yak 138 > wagon 157 > 159)

hdk-3
Capage (101)
panzercorps (105)
Wombat (alxeu 89 > 158)

Wagonlizt-3
Caillean (152)
EUROO7 (hdk 115 > 154)
happycats517 (hdk 129 > 155)

Capage-1
Dedonus (95)

Jackson-1
Ironhide (94)

Sleepyhead-1
Agatha (93)

Wombat-1
Jackson (86)

happycats515-1
CaptainGrimlock (113)

caillean-1
Aedan (capage 97 > 119)

Not Voted :)
None
Day 2
Euro-7
Ironhide (187)
HistoryDude (194)
Aedan (201)
Alxeu (207)
Arkasas (212)
Caillean (Aedan 195->219)
Maw (Caillean 205->224)

Mawofdoom-6
Dedonus (184)
Randy (199)
Grimlock (206)
Jackson (216)
Liefwarrior (217)
Euro (Aedan 220->222)

Grimlock-2
Sleepyhead (193)
Capage (MAWofdoom 209->210)

Capage-1
hdk (203)

HistoryDude-1
Team Wombat (202)

Not Voted
Witch Agatha
Day 3
Grimlock-5
hdk (239)
sleepyhead (253)
Capage (Aedan 237 - > 257)
Arkasas (283)
Maw (Witch Agatha244 -> 285)

Caillean-5
Grimlock (232)
Alxeu (245)
Ironhide G1 (278)
Wagonlitz 2.0 (277)
liefwarrior (282)

Arkasas-2
Randy (249)
Witch Agatha (252)

Agatha-2
Caillean (251)
Dedonus (Jackson 230 -> 260)

Capage-1
Aedan (234)

Mawofdoom-1
HistoryDude (231)

Not Voted- 1
Jacksonian Missionary
HistoryDude-5
Capage (Aedan 237 - > CaptainGrimlock 257 -> 297)
Wagonlitz 2.0 (Caillean 277 -> Leifwarrior 296 -> 301)
Witch Agatha (Arkasas 252 -> 303)
Maw (Witch Agatha244 -> Grimlock 285 -> 305)
Arkasas (Grimlock 283 -> 307)

Caillean-4
Grimlock (232)
Alxeu (245)
Ironhide G1 (278)
liefwarrior (282)

Agatha-2
Caillean (251)
Dedonus (Jackson 230 -> 260)

Grimlock-2
hdk (239)
sleepyhead (253)

Arkasas-2
Randy (249)

Capage-1
Aedan (234)

Mawofdoom-1
HistoryDude (231)

Not Voted- 1
Jacksonian Missionary
Day 4
Grimlock-5
Dedonus (321)
hdk (325)
Agatha (327)
Arkasas (359)
Liefwarrior (361)

Jackson-5
Maw (324)
Maw (324) alderman activated
Sleepyhead (331)
Ironhide (355)
Caillean (356)

Dedonus-2
Aedan (332)
Grimlock (333)

Aedan-2
Wagonlitz 2.0 (326)
Randy (358)

Not voted
Jacksonian Missionary
alxeu
Day 5
hdk-3
Maw (385)
Maw (385) Alderman
Wagon 2.0 (392)

Aedan-3
Agatha (372)
Dedonus (393)
Randy (399)

Caillean-3
Sleepyhead (389)
Aedan (394)
hdk (404)
Aedan-10
Agatha (372)
Dedonus (393)
Randy (399)
Caillean (406)
Arkasas (409)
Maw (the_hdk 385 ->410)
Maw (the_hdk 385->410) Alderman
Wagon 2.0 (the_hdk 392->411)
Liefwarrior (413)
Sleepyhead (Caillean 389->414)

Caillean-2
Aedan (394)
hdk (404)

Not Voted
Ironhide G1
Day 6
Sleepyhead: 4
Randakar (Arkasas 428 -> 435)
liefwarrior (443)
MAWofDoom (liefwarrior 426 - > 445)
MAWofDoom (liefwarrior 426 - > 445)

liefwarrior: 3
Ironhide G1 (424)
Arkasas (440)
Dedonus (Arkasas 437 -> Sleepyhead 441 -> 446)

Arkasas: 1
Sleepyhead (425)

Not Voted: :mad:
Caillean
 
So we're down to what, 5 players?

Dedonus
Arkasas
Ironhide
Caillean
Randakar

Vote Ironhide


I'm not voting myself.

My fiancee Caillean simply is too absent. I have no idea what side she's on, but I don't want to vote her unless I have no other choice. She might still actually play this game.

Dedonus seems to be clear. I don't see a pack having two assassins and a brutal, at least. Though honestly I should go back and reread the arguments made earlier.

Arkasas is slightly more doubtful. But between him and Ironhide, I think I prefer the worst voting record. It's basically a toss-up though.
 
Get ready for a long post!

Let's take a look at the remaining player's voting record and see what pops up. I am ignoring days 1 and 2 because of the no-hunt on Night 2, which makes me believe our last wolf used to be a villager, but was cursed.

Key: Day X - votes (number of votes on votee), voters for this player [vote count leaders for the day]

Randakar:
Day 3 - 1st vote on Arkasas (2) [Grimlock/Caillean 5/5 -> HistoryDude 5]
Day 4 - 2nd vote on Aedan (2) [Grimlock/Jacksonian 5/5]
Day 5 (pre-outting)- 3rd vote on Aedan (3) [the_hdk/Aedan/Caillean 3/3/3]
Day 6 - 2nd vote on Arkasas (1) -> 1st vote on Sleepyhead (4) [Sleepyhead 4]

Ironhide G1:
Day 3 - 4th vote on Caillean (4) [Grimlock/Caillean 5/5 -> HistoryDude 5]
Day 4 - 4th vote on Jacksonian (5) [Grimlock/Jacksonian 5/5]
Day 5 (pre-outting) - no vote [the_hdk/Aedan/Caillean 3/3/3]
Day 6 - 1st vote on liefwarrior (3) [Sleepyhead 4]

Arkasas:
Day 3 - 4th vote on Grimlock (2) -> 5th voter on HistoryDude (5) [Grimlock/Caillean 5/5 -> HistoryDude 5]
Day 4 -4th vote on Grimlock (5) [Grimlock/Jacksonian 5/5]
Day 5 (pre-outting) - no vote [the_hdk/Aedan/Caillean 3/3/3]
Day 6 - 3rd vote on liefwarrior (3), voted by Sleepyhead, Randy, and Dedonus [Sleepyhead 4]

Caillean:
Day 3 - 1st vote on Witch Agatha (2), voted by Wagonlitz 2.0 [Grimlock/Caillean 5/5 -> HistoryDude 5]
Day 4 - 5th vote on Jacksonian (5) [Grimlock/Jacksonian 5/5]
Day 5 (pre-outting) - no vote, voted by sleepyhead, aedan, and the_hdk [the_hdk/Aedan/Caillean 3/3/3]
Day 6 - no vote

The first thing that stands out to me is Day 5 for Caillean. She was voted by 3 baddies ( sleepyhead, aedan, and the_hdk) and she was in a three-way tie with two baddies (aedan, and the_hdk), prior to Aedan being ousted as a cultist. This allow makes me believe she is not a wolf. Also, because sleepyhead turned out to be a cultist, the last remaining wolf had to set the hunt order. Unless the MAWofdoom hunt was a standing order, Caillean could not have set the vote because she wasn't present on Day 6. The only counter to this argument is that Caillean was logged in, but didn't post in the game thread (an action that should be frowned upon).

Randakar has voted for baddies on three day (Aedan on Days 4 and 5, and Sleepyhead on Day 6). At first glance, this seems like an excellent vote record.

Ironhide has a terrible vote record, never once voting for a baddie. The only saving grace is that, except for yesterday, most days have either 2 villagers or 2 baddies run up (or a baddie was switched). So it is hard to say Ironhide was trying to save a wolf.

Arkasas best Day was Day 3, where he joined the switch on HistoryDude. He was also voted by Sleepyhead.

From the above analysis, one might say we should go after Ironhide G1. However, I would like to look at these four days under the assumption that caillean is a villager.

Day 3:
Before the switch to HistoryDude happened, two villagers (Grimlock and Caillean) were the frontrunners and no wolves were in danger of the lynch. Two baddies (the_hdk and sleepyhead) voted Grimlock, while two baddies (Aedan and HistoryDude) placed throwaway votes on Capage and MAWofdoom, respectively. Arkasas and Ironhide G1 had votes on the frontrunners, while Randy had a vote on the non-frontrunner Arkasas. Of these three votes, Arkasas' seems the least wolfish because there are already two baddies on Grimlock. Ironhide's vote could be seen as helping push two villagers into a tie, while Randy's vote could be a throwaway vote while the village lynch their own. Also note that Arkasas is the only person of these three players who moved their vote during the vote switch to HistoryDude.

Results: Good points to Arkasas and Bad points to Ironhide and Randy

Day 4:
Two villagers (Grimlock and Jacksonian ) were the frontrunners and no baddies were in danger of the lynch (Aedan with 2 votes was the closest). Each frontrunner has a confirmed baddie on them (the_hdk and sleepyhead, respectively). Aedan tried to push me as a candidate (and failed). Both Arkasas and Ironhide had votes on the frontrunners. I could see a wolf could vote in either of these positions, but I am more interested in Randy's vote. He placed a 2nd vote on Aedan when Grimlock had 3 votes, Jacksonian 2 (or 3 if we are counting MAW's alderman trait), and I had 2. With three villagers as the other candidates, placing a vote on Aedan would not be dangerous for a wolf and if Aedan happened to get lynched (he didn't until the next day), Aedan is just a cultist. Therefore, I see Randy's vote on Aedan on this day an alibi vote.

Results: Neutral points to Arkasas and Ironhide and Bad points to Randy.

Day 5:
Two baddies (Aedan and the_hdk) and one villager (Caillean) were the frontrunners before Aedan was ousted as a cultist. Unfortunately, Witch Agatha did the outing a little early and we therefore do not know how Arkasas and Ironhide would have voted without knowing Aedan was a confirmed cultist. Randy pushed Aedan into a tie with the_hdk. On one hand, this could indicate that Randy is a goodie. However, there are arguments that this could have been another alibi vote. There were still ~2 hours left in the day and 4 players who hadn't voted yet. Furthermore, just like I mentioned on Day 4, Aedan is just a cultist and is more disposable than a wolf, like the_hdk. Finally, if Randy had voted Caillean and it was revealed that Aedan and the_hdk were baddies, it would look really bad for Randy to vote with 3 baddies when 2 baddies were the other candidate options.

Because we don't have useful info on Arkasas and Ironhide on this Day, it would be unfair to penalize Randy. However, I will still keep in mind how Randy's vote looks to me in my conclusion.

Results: no points rewarded (another Randy alibi vote?)

Day 6:
One baddie (sleepyhead) and one villager (liefwarrior) were the frontrunners and these were MAW's preferred candidates (and I concurred with them). The only known baddie (sleepyhead) voted for Arkasas. This could be an alibi vote, but for most of the day, liefwarrior was the frontrunner. Randy's vote on Sleepyhead is similar. Could be an alibi vote, could be a dangerous vote that could (and did) lead to Sleepyhead's death. Both Arkasas and Ironhide voted a villager (liefwarrior), but everyone thought liefwarrior was a good candidate. Both villager and wolf could have followed that. However, Arkasas stated he was voting liefwarrior out of self-preservation, but he thought that Sleepyhead felt wolfish. Ironhide thought that lief and sleepy were the most suspicious players.

But what is interesting is Sleepyhead's analysis. He pointed towards arkasas and ironhide as his favorite candidates for the remaining baddies and said that Randy was very unlikely a baddie. To be fair, everyone said that Randy seemed like a villager. But what is more likely: Sleepyhead throwing his last remaining wolf packmate under the bus or putting forward the case that everyone else came to (i.e. Randy's multiple votes on baddies). I am leaning towards the latter.

Results: Neutral points to Arkasas and Ironhide and bad points to Randy.

Conclusion: Through this analysis, I feel Arkasas is least likely to be the last remaining baddie. Ironhide comes second. And Randy, despite voting baddies three times (4 with yakman, but that happened prior to the 2nd no-hunt) looks the worst in context.

VOTE Randakar
 
randakar said:
So we're down to what, 5 players?

Dedonus
Arkasas
Ironhide
Caillean
Randakar

Vote Ironhide


I'm not voting myself.

My fiancee Caillean simply is too absent. I have no idea what side she's on, but I don't want to vote her unless I have no other choice. She might still actually play this game.

Dedonus seems to be clear. I don't see a pack having two assassins and a brutal, at least. Though honestly I should go back and reread the arguments made earlier.

Arkasas is slightly more doubtful. But between him and Ironhide, I think I prefer the worst voting record. It's basically a toss-up though.
Click to expand...
I guess you've never played with me before. Look through my games and find one time I have claimed villager when I am not. I'm not a conventional WW player, and sometimes I will phrase it (last game, where I was a turned wolf, I made a hint that my role PM said I was, but I never claimed villager). I am a villager, and have not been turned this game. MAWofdoom said yesterday:

MAWofdoom said:
High tier villagers: dedonus and randy have been at odds with aedan, and he at odds with them quite often. If either are evil, I'd be very impressed. Ironhide also falls into this category for me because of the following.

From anyone else this is meaningless, but from ironhide this is basically fully clearing.
Click to expand...
Anyways, my voting record is not great. But I'm not letting you throw away the village's chance of winning here.
Dedonus said:
Get ready for a long post!

Let's take a look at the remaining player's voting record and see what pops up. I am ignoring days 1 and 2 because of the no-hunt on Night 2, which makes me believe our last wolf used to be a villager, but was cursed.

Key: Day X - votes (number of votes on votee), voters for this player [vote count leaders for the day]

Randakar:
Day 3 - 1st vote on Arkasas (2) [Grimlock/Caillean 5/5 -> HistoryDude 5]
Day 4 - 2nd vote on Aedan (2) [Grimlock/Jacksonian 5/5]
Day 5 (pre-outting)- 3rd vote on Aedan (3) [the_hdk/Aedan/Caillean 3/3/3]
Day 6 - 2nd vote on Arkasas (1) -> 1st vote on Sleepyhead (4) [Sleepyhead 4]

Ironhide G1:
Day 3 - 4th vote on Caillean (4) [Grimlock/Caillean 5/5 -> HistoryDude 5]
Day 4 - 4th vote on Jacksonian (5) [Grimlock/Jacksonian 5/5]
Day 5 (pre-outting) - no vote [the_hdk/Aedan/Caillean 3/3/3]
Day 6 - 1st vote on liefwarrior (3) [Sleepyhead 4]

Arkasas:
Day 3 - 4th vote on Grimlock (2) -> 5th voter on HistoryDude (5) [Grimlock/Caillean 5/5 -> HistoryDude 5]
Day 4 -4th vote on Grimlock (5) [Grimlock/Jacksonian 5/5]
Day 5 (pre-outting) - no vote [the_hdk/Aedan/Caillean 3/3/3]
Day 6 - 3rd vote on liefwarrior (3), voted by Sleepyhead, Randy, and Dedonus [Sleepyhead 4]

Caillean:
Day 3 - 1st vote on Witch Agatha (2), voted by Wagonlitz 2.0 [Grimlock/Caillean 5/5 -> HistoryDude 5]
Day 4 - 5th vote on Jacksonian (5) [Grimlock/Jacksonian 5/5]
Day 5 (pre-outting) - no vote, voted by sleepyhead, aedan, and the_hdk [the_hdk/Aedan/Caillean 3/3/3]
Day 6 - no vote

The first thing that stands out to me is Day 5 for Caillean. She was voted by 3 baddies ( sleepyhead, aedan, and the_hdk) and she was in a three-way tie with two baddies (aedan, and the_hdk), prior to Aedan being ousted as a cultist. This allow makes me believe she is not a wolf. Also, because sleepyhead turned out to be a cultist, the last remaining wolf had to set the hunt order. Unless the MAWofdoom hunt was a standing order, Caillean could not have set the vote because she wasn't present on Day 6. The only counter to this argument is that Caillean was logged in, but didn't post in the game thread (an action that should be frowned upon).

Randakar has voted for baddies on three day (Aedan on Days 4 and 5, and Sleepyhead on Day 6). At first glance, this seems like an excellent vote record.

Ironhide has a terrible vote record, never once voting for a baddie. The only saving grace is that, except for yesterday, most days have either 2 villagers or 2 baddies run up (or a baddie was switched). So it is hard to say Ironhide was trying to save a wolf.

Arkasas best Day was Day 3, where he joined the switch on HistoryDude. He was also voted by Sleepyhead.

From the above analysis, one might say we should go after Ironhide G1. However, I would like to look at these four days under the assumption that caillean is a villager.

Day 3:
Before the switch to HistoryDude happened, two villagers (Grimlock and Caillean) were the frontrunners and no wolves were in danger of the lynch. Two baddies (the_hdk and sleepyhead) voted Grimlock, while two baddies (Aedan and HistoryDude) placed throwaway votes on Capage and MAWofdoom, respectively. Arkasas and Ironhide G1 had votes on the frontrunners, while Randy had a vote on the non-frontrunner Arkasas. Of these three votes, Arkasas' seems the least wolfish because there are already two baddies on Grimlock. Ironhide's vote could be seen as helping push two villagers into a tie, while Randy's vote could be a throwaway vote while the village lynch their own. Also note that Arkasas is the only person of these three players who moved their vote during the vote switch to HistoryDude.

Results: Good points to Arkasas and Bad points to Ironhide and Randy

Day 4:
Two villagers (Grimlock and Jacksonian ) were the frontrunners and no baddies were in danger of the lynch (Aedan with 2 votes was the closest). Each frontrunner has a confirmed baddie on them (the_hdk and sleepyhead, respectively). Aedan tried to push me as a candidate (and failed). Both Arkasas and Ironhide had votes on the frontrunners. I could see a wolf could vote in either of these positions, but I am more interested in Randy's vote. He placed a 2nd vote on Aedan when Grimlock had 3 votes, Jacksonian 2 (or 3 if we are counting MAW's alderman trait), and I had 2. With three villagers as the other candidates, placing a vote on Aedan would not be dangerous for a wolf and if Aedan happened to get lynched (he didn't until the next day), Aedan is just a cultist. Therefore, I see Randy's vote on Aedan on this day an alibi vote.

Results: Neutral points to Arkasas and Ironhide and Bad points to Randy.

Day 5:
Two baddies (Aedan and the_hdk) and one villager (Caillean) were the frontrunners before Aedan was ousted as a cultist. Unfortunately, Witch Agatha did the outing a little early and we therefore do not know how Arkasas and Ironhide would have voted without knowing Aedan was a confirmed cultist. Randy pushed Aedan into a tie with the_hdk. On one hand, this could indicate that Randy is a goodie. However, there are arguments that this could have been another alibi vote. There were still ~2 hours left in the day and 4 players who hadn't voted yet. Furthermore, just like I mentioned on Day 4, Aedan is just a cultist and is more disposable than a wolf, like the_hdk. Finally, if Randy had voted Caillean and it was revealed that Aedan and the_hdk were baddies, it would look really bad for Randy to vote with 3 baddies when 2 baddies were the other candidate options.

Because we don't have useful info on Arkasas and Ironhide on this Day, it would be unfair to penalize Randy. However, I will still keep in mind how Randy's vote looks to me in my conclusion.

Results: no points rewarded (another Randy alibi vote?)

Day 6:
One baddie (sleepyhead) and one villager (liefwarrior) were the frontrunners and these were MAW's preferred candidates (and I concurred with them). The only known baddie (sleepyhead) voted for Arkasas. This could be an alibi vote, but for most of the day, liefwarrior was the frontrunner. Randy's vote on Sleepyhead is similar. Could be an alibi vote, could be a dangerous vote that could (and did) lead to Sleepyhead's death. Both Arkasas and Ironhide voted a villager (liefwarrior), but everyone thought liefwarrior was a good candidate. Both villager and wolf could have followed that. However, Arkasas stated he was voting liefwarrior out of self-preservation, but he thought that Sleepyhead felt wolfish. Ironhide thought that lief and sleepy were the most suspicious players.

But what is interesting is Sleepyhead's analysis. He pointed towards arkasas and ironhide as his favorite candidates for the remaining baddies and said that Randy was very unlikely a baddie. To be fair, everyone said that Randy seemed like a villager. But what is more likely: Sleepyhead throwing his last remaining wolf packmate under the bus or putting forward the case that everyone else came to (i.e. Randy's multiple votes on baddies). I am leaning towards the latter.

Results: Neutral points to Arkasas and Ironhide and bad points to Randy.

Conclusion: Through this analysis, I feel Arkasas is least likely to be the last remaining baddie. Ironhide comes second. And Randy, despite voting baddies three times (4 with yakman, but that happened prior to the 2nd no-hunt) looks the worst in context.

VOTE Randakar
Click to expand...

I agree that Caillean is an unlikely choice because 3 reds voted for her day 5. Dedonus is also unlikely in my estimation, leaving Arkasas and Randakar.

Dedonus's case on randy is very intriguing, and I think the best that we have to work with right now.

Vote Randakar
 
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