If I'm already killing enemy fleets fast enough while focusing on visibility, why do I need extra heavy attack? Your logic works both ways. At the end of the day it's a pure optimization problem with one right answer, and IC based fleet tests done over the years have shown that visibility is better.
On 1v1 fight, same fleet composition and using the same templates for each ship type without randomness added in, I have no doubt about that.
For death stacks, and for single player purposes, its largely irrelevant. I wouldn't sacrifice production costs over them as Italy.
- With lvl 0 MIO CRDA we are speaking of a flat +18% bonus (+5% MIO itself at lvl 0, +10% from northern industry, +3% from danielli which also comes from northern industry).
- If you opt to modernize the Mezzogiorno, you will get +10% bonus to CNA (another +5% at lvl 6 if memory serves, but this comes so late its irrelevant). The 10% bonus is pratically half of what you get from Northern Industries. And you will lose ALL bonus to tanks, ALL material equipment (trucks, infantry equipment, anti air, artillery, etc etc, you name it), which is also +10% (actually +13% because you are getting another 3% to factory output from danielli). And I am not even taking the airplanes in consideration, because there are many IFs attached in that field, but you will undoubtly lose the bonus to strategic bombers (+13%), which are pretty good in my book for late game runs and for totally wrecking AI frontlines/supply.
The raw loss to land production makes the "modernize the Mezzogiorno" unviable to take. And this indirectly translates itself in a +15% production difference between CRDA and CNA right at lvl 0 without even needing to mass produce ships for leveling up.
The production difference ALONE, sells me over to CRDA. If we combine the extra combat stats, than I have no doubt about whats better.
You are also speaking about "tests done over the years"... let me tell you something... "over the years" there was no for Blood Alone DLC (released late 2022), that brought us a new revamped Italian tree... Nor could you Modernize Northern Industries or receive its bonus... "over the years".
But again, I will give you reason in what you say - for a generic country, I wouldn't have doubt about which would be better, and you would be ABSOLUTELY correct, specially on a 1v1 fight. For Italy, and for single player purposes, sorry, but its a hard pass.
Also we are speaking about single player in here. Survivability is hardly a good motivation for death stacks for single player purposes - specially if you are using escorts for escorting (and as bait), and placing your fleet on strike force duty (on the same areas these escorts are at). The AI will always decide to fight your crappy escorts - and when your death stack arrives, the AI will run most of the time, but in here DPS (damage per second, capiche?) plays its role - and your survivability is irrelevant (even more so if you already dealt damage directly to the fleet via naval bombers which is what happens a lot of times before you even engage them).
EDITED: I tend to combine all production into CRDA in order to level it faster, but we cannot also forget about Odero Terni Orlando (it has +5% at lvl 0, +10% from northern industries, +3% from danielli and also +5% at lvl 3, for a total of +18%(at lvl 0) or +23% (at lvl 3) production bonus for screens, useful for dd spam)