Well… EU got along fine for three iterations and most of EUIV’s lifespan without mission trees, lol.
Well... not really, lol. I played EU3 for like 2 years and lost interest in it because everything was repeatable. I returned to EU4 after new more dynamic mission trees, gov reforms, etc. because they at least made things a little spicy. Maybe for one playthrough each, but still.
And yet, somehow, both EU3 and EUIV managed to muddle along fine without you—long enough and successfully enough, in fact, for mission trees to be introduced in EUIV's
twenty-fifth major patch.
There are not enough variables in the game to make it different enough.
You've made this assertion vague enough that it's impossible to coherently argue with the premises you presented (what would be "different enough"? By what function do you propose we derive the degree of "difference" from number of variables?). Nonetheless, it's incorrect.
We can assume that "difference" is a function of
number of possible conditions (i.e. the number of possible combinations of variables), therefore, as you say, sufficient difference depends on having sufficient variables.
Mathematically speaking, the number of conditions increases exponentially as you add variables, so you don’t need many at all to achieve high diversity. If you have three variables that can each be in three places, you’ve got six conditions. add one more and you’ve got 24. If instead they can each be in seven positions (like stability) you've got 210–840 potential conditions. EUIV has a bewildering array of variables, to the extent that it's beginning to be observed that
even the devs lose track of how many there are and implement mission rewards doing or counteracting things that other variables are meant to do—the number of potential conditions stretches easily into the tens of millions. Number of variables is not a relevant factor.
The question is instead about the
significance of the variables, therefore the significance of different conditions. 200 potential positions for prestige and 6 potential positions for stability gives us 1400 potential conditions, but prestige is so relatively insignificant a factor, and the difference between levels of stability is so insignificant that only, say, four prestige and two or three stability positions are actually very significant.
(By which I mean that -100 prestige is very different to -20 or +50 or +100, but very few people are on the edge of their seat trying to make the difference between 1 and 3 prestige).
So in reality regardless of number of variables, only about 8–12 prestige-and-stability conditions actually matter. But that's a question of
mechanics design, not of
number of variables. If there were more ways to gain, spend and otherwise affect and use prestige, there would be more significant conditions. And of course as soon as we introduce a single other variable the number of conditions increases exponentially: if we say that there are three significant power projection positions (0, 25, 50) then suddenly there are some 24-48 significant conditions among these variables. Then we can start thinking about legitimacy, estate influence, pre-picked estate privileges, government types, manpower levels, income and treasury... It doesn't take long before we get to thousands of potential starting conditions without even talking about development, geography, disasters and disaster progress, and diplomacy. How many significant conditions do we need for different starts to be "different enough"? It's all a question of making the mechanics meaningful enough that different positions are significant.
Which brings us to where we agree:
With this, I wholeheartedly agree. For EU5 they need to build a strong, deep foundation, not like what they did for CK3 and Vic3.
Yup. And if we've got a strong, deep foundation then mechanics design is sorted, while we've seen that number of variables is trivial. There's no reason why EU5 shouldn't have sufficient interacting variables to significantly differentiate numerous tags, which can be added to with DLC as time goes on.
Most of this is outside the scope of EU series, in my opinion.
With respect, that cannot possibly be your opinion because it's demonstrably incorrect. It's your
misapprehension.
All of the questions you quoted relate to mechanics that are already in EUIV: subject interactions with vassals; personal unions and "place relative on throne"; special units, army professionalism, condottieri and mercenaries; estates and estate privileges; local autonomy and the various syncretism and harmonisation and Mughal/Ming/other cultural shenanigans mechanics. I'm suggesting these mechanics could be made better by iterating on them and bedding them deeper into the game.
They were added too late in the development cycle to expect any deep, revolting changes.
I think perhaps they were added too late in Paradox's commitment to EUIV's particular DLC model (DLCs cannot be interdependent so DLC mechanics cannot talk to each other) to see much change, but even that is not a given: we've seen in cases like development and estates that Paradox is willing, if reluctant, to move mechanics into the main game so that they can be incorporated deeper into other systems. Regardless, the overwhelming majority of what I'm suggesting isn't even DLC-level revisions, just modifier changes and other interactions that even their content designers could mod in, given the impetus.
...But there's no impetus, because everyone acts like mission trees make EUIV good, so instead they make mission trees so you can play the mission tree and let the actual game rot.
...It will bring cringe meme effects like Russian "prussian infantry" or "turkish hussaria" and not that much replayability. It possibly COULD work if EU5 would have 10 playable tags - but not with 100 or more.
...There are not enough variables in the game to make it different enough. For example, Poland's starting conditions allowed it to create hussaria "storm cavalry". Cossacks have similar starting conditions but they formed different ones. Prussia is very close - but it formed mostly infantry, same for Russia. And reasons for this are in history, economy, social structure, and tradition - things mostly outside the scope of the EU series.
I'm afraid I'm not 100% clear on what you mean with these points. To my reading:
- You don't like the idea of differentiation coming from effects built into the game world, because then countries might bend the game rules to produce ahistorical outcomes ("cringe meme effects") such as 'Turkish hussaria' or Russian 'Prussian infantry'.
- You don't believe that it's possible for differentiations within the game world to produce the sheer diversity of outcomes we've seen in real history.
I don't really understand (1). Presumably you are aware that as of right now it's entirely possible for the Teutonic Order to reform into a crusading steppe horde, or for
a Mongolian khanate to switch to a Burmese culture, migrate to Europe, conquer the Holy Roman Empire and be ruled by the Habsburgs? EUIV produces ahistorical outcomes, more news at 11. The possibility of Russia producing uber-powerful "Prussian infantry" or the Turks raising superb cavalry armies ought to be the least of your worries. Realistically it's already perfectly possible for Russia to combine offensive-defensive-quality-economic-innovative ideas and push for high quality soldiers (not to mention tag-switching shenanigans), or for Turkey to collect cavalry bonuses.
With that being said, it's absolutely possible for simple mechanics to mitigate ahistorical outcomes in historical situations (what you're calling "cringe meme effects"). Prussia had "Prussian infantry" because its army was tiny and depended on drilling and professionalism, something which Russia couldn't afford to support: its troops were too busy patrolling its vast territory, being loyal to far-flung power centres because Moscow couldn't directly control such a vast space, and/or working in the fields because they were essentially feudal levies. If standing armies were made more challenging to maintain (i.e. expensive), feudal levies were cheap but decimated your professionalism and drilling was very effective but expensive then hey presto, you're unlikely to see Russia maintaining elite "Prussian-style infantry" (but you might see it struggling to maintain a small core of professional troops so as to dominate potential rebellious corners of the empire). What's the problem?
With respect to (2), your concern is differentiating Polish hussars and Cossack light cavalry given their similar starting conditions. But the Cossacks' starting conditions are much poorer than that of Poland. It is perfectly organic that they can't afford to produce and outfit heavy professional cavalry like the hussars, and instead rely on cheap light cavalry perhaps with (as you say) a bonus for being a cavalry-oriented people, such that Poland's starting conditions produce superb heavy cavalry, the Cossacks rely on quality light cavalry, and the Prussians (not a steppe people
and not able to outfit heavy cavalry) rely on well-drilled infantry. I don't see any reason why very simple mechanics couldn't organically produce these outcomes and differentiations.