Chapter 13: Days of Reckoning (January 1075 – July 1077)
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1075: Hel’s Halitosis
Hel’s Breath was blanketing the capital and the rest of the Imperial demesne in a foul miasma that only seemed to worsen with time. Torzhok suffered a minor depopulation at the start of January 1075. The western raiding army of around 5,000 arrived men in the Byzantine border province of Imeretia on 1 January and laid its siege. A local army of the Duke of Kartli of around 4,000 men was in the vicinity but heading south-east, away from the Rurikid raiders.
Despite Fylkir Arni’s decree, in late January the local peasants of Holmgarðr were rumoured to be planning a pogrom against the Jews anyway. Even though it would worsen the situation in the capital even further, Arni had made a stand on principle and sent in the troops to prevent it. The peasants were furious.
The plague had now hit Northern Europe hard, with reports of terrible depopulation occurring in many counties, though some more of the earlier infected lands were beginning to recover.
While in seclusion, things were obviously going well between the Fylkir and his Empress: Asa announced her second pregnancy on 4 February. If only both she and the child could survive. A week later, against perhaps his more cautious counsel, Arni decided to trust his Steward Jarl Klas with a project he suggested regarding hidden tunnels under the castle, thinking perhaps some kind of escape route might be found for later use.
Klas may have been pleased with this show of trust. It was hard to tell whether the infiltrator was discovered because of the search, or was able to get in because of it, but ten days later traces of such were found. The safest approach may have been to just seal up the tunnels, however Arni wanted to get to the bottom of who it may have been, so an ambush was prepared.
In early March they found the infiltrator – a rather pitiful specimen by the name of Elisabet. Shying away from imprisonment or execution, she was sent for questioning. Had he shown pity, she would have become a friend for life. But this was enough for Arni: he would not risk the integrity of the seclusion any further: "If she
is immune, she will be fine!"
By this time, the loss of life in Rouen had been classified as severe (60% death rate), something that would take years to repair. It was now the turn of Eastern Europe to feel the full force of Hel’s Breath, with a ‘do not travel’ order issued in May 1075. All Arni could do was sit inside the Palace and hope their seclusion would hold.
While plague was not an issue in Imeretia, inattention was. Before they could evade them, the raiders were ambushed by a larger Byzantine force, while the local Kartli army had returned and were poised to reinforce. Within a few days, the raiders would be outnumbered by more than two-to-one, and had no commander available to lead them (all spares having been confined in seclusions).
While disaster brewed in Imeretia, the lucrative siege of Oshrusana progressed. When the castle was looted another key was found to open the strange chest held in the treasury. But, naturally in these miserable times, the contents proved worthless.
Even though they had tried to escape as soon as they could, the raiders in Imeretia were savaged by the time the pursuit was over, losing over 1,800 of their most elite soldiers at a time when recruiting replacements had been slowed for budgetary reasons.
The mauled raiders would arrive in Abkhazia to recover on 23 June with only 3,364 troops left alive.
The loss of life in Holmgarðr county continued to rise to significant levels, with an estimated forty percent of the population dead by the start of August 1075. In combination with the ongoing plague and peasant fury, this reduced income in all three demesne baronies to zero. By early September, Ladoga was in a similar position. In Torzhok and Toropets, the depopulation would remain relatively minor (20%).
This run of nasty news was relieved by some joy in the secluded court when Empress Asa gave birth to a healthy son and new heir on 6 September 1075.
It was also noteworthy that with the plague biting deep across the Empire, the notional army Arni could call on at this time was around 20,000 less than it had been at its peak just a few years ago. It was only minimal consolation that most other countries would have been similarly affected.
By mid-October, the two raids of Samanid Oshrusana (4 holdings, 360 gold) and Urgrench (4 holdings, 190 gold) finished without any raiding losses. They had kept the treasury afloat since May 1074 despite recurring monthly deficits. They would next move east to raid another Samanid border province.
By early November, the plague had also lifted from most of France and Brabant, Hungary and the south of Russia.
There was cause for concern in early November when the Empress fell ill; of course, some feared the worst, but Hysing Rurikid, Chief of Amalfi and the latest Court Physician was called in, pronouncing it to be a case of the flu, not the dreaded Hel’s Breath. His recent experiences had led him to develop into a renowned physician, always good to have during such times of terrible pestilence.
Now taking a ‘no risk’ attitude to the palace seclusion, a courtier was ejected as the year was ending as soon as he showed the first signs of illness. There would be no mercy shown when the lives of the Imperial family and the longer term stability of the empire were at stake.
January-June 1076: Rot, Raid and Ruin
A nasty situation had developed in the capital as the court’s seclusion extended into 1076. The angry commoners began piling up the bodies of the dead near the palace walls to try and ‘stink the Emperor out’. But Arni would not risk using the guard to clear the rotting corpses, much to the disgust of the rest of the court. “Wear a nosegay!” was Arni’s disdainful response. “Better a bit of a stink than suffering Hel’s Breath.”
One of the eastern raiding armies defeated a local army of around 1,300 in Khaylam on 5 February for under 50 casualties. They captured Marzoban Ehsan of Fergana after the battle and a substantial ransom of 70 gold was paid for him. But because of an intervening mountain range, the county couldn’t be looted directly. They would have to head back north to Chuy, where local foraging was ample and they could link with the other raiding force to hasten the siege work.
With the plague now lifted in France, though it was a countryside festooned with tombstones, the latest Jomsviking Warchief decided it was time to strike King Adrien ‘the Mutilator’ once more, this time trying to deprive him of his capital and last Atlantic port: Bordeaux itself. Meanwhile, Jarl Rikulfr was still clinging to his hope of taking Rouergue from Aquitaine.
The raiders who had been resting in Abkhazia since the disaster in Imeretia in June the year before were considered recovered enough (now with almost 4,500 troops) to make a long march across the north of the Black Sea to western Bulgaria. They would recruit more troops along the way and be ready for a new raid when called upon, to help replenish the collapsing Imperial revenues, which by this time had sunk to just 11 gold per month across the entire empire against just under 29 in expenses.
The effect of the plague in the Russian heartland was now beginning to approach its greatest extent in March 1076, while the northern steppe became the next killing ground, while it started to ebb in Germany, England and Spain.
Chief Hysing (also the Court Physician) who had arrived in the Samanid province of Chuy on 4 March to start the next raid. The second eastern raiding army joined him on 24 March giving almost 11,000 elite troops to start gathering the loot.
The lifting of the plague also seemed to bring out the mischief between magnates again. Young King Oddr of Lotharingia was confronted with a civil war to implement elective monarchy in mid-April 1076. And as the conflict started, he was badly outnumbered, even though he still controlled the bulk of his kingdom’s territory. Arni didn't try to intervene as yet, waiting to see what happened as his palace gates remained firmly shut.
Warchief Anlaufr must have still been already suffering from the plague when it subsided in France or had picked it up from somewhere, because in May he fell to Hel’s Breath anyway. As always, another successor was ready to take his place: Valdemar would carry forward the war against Aquitaine.
Young Oddr was at least able to get one war out of the way as May ended, with his holy war for Franconia against Bavaria finally yielding up the county of Würzburg. He still had his civil war to contend with but could at least concentrate on that.
July-December 1076: Your Choice of Epidemic
The sharks of the Rurikid world must have smelled blood in the water, because King Oddr was soon attacked by one the other powerful magnates, fellow King Þorsteinn of Sviþjod in mid-July, who hoped to relieve him of the county of Verdun.
The bad news kept coming, with reports that despite having the best hospital in the entire empire, Holmgarðr had now lost more than half its population to the Black Death by August 1076. With the peasant fury, ongoing plague and this severe depopulation, no income was being produced by the empire’s richest province. Its population (and thus levy size and tax base) would take many years to recover.
A month later, the Steward Jarl Klas of Vladimir was the next to fall victim to Hel’s Breath. He was succeeded as Jarl by his son Bo, while the able Jarl Karl of Rostov took over as Imperial Steward. All Council members remained in seclusion, detracting from the administration of the ravaged realm.
But the post-plague thaw in the west continued, with the latest Jarl of Lothian launching a bid to expand his holdings on Sardinia in mid-September.
At that time, Jarl Rikulfr of Champagne had come of age, surviving a long regency and years of the plague to take his birthright. Unfortunately, the last few years of war and pestilence had reduced his once large army to a shadow of its former self. And the bulk of them that remained in the field near Rouergue were in the process of being defeated once more by King Adrien of Aquitaine. Up to that point, Rikulfr had been recovering some ground in the conflict, but Adrien had now been joined by the Knights Templar. Rikulfr would ultimately be forced to concede defeat early the following year.
Early October brought news that a new outbreak of consumption had occurred in Pisa. Measles continued to rage in southern Italy and the smallpox epidemic was now spreading quickly through the Balkans, into Greece and around the Black Sea. As if the weary populations weren’t already trying to recover from the greatest plague in hundreds of years.
A commander had been found for the new raid starting in southern Hungary, though Grand Mayor Refil feared the advancing smallpox more than he did any military response from the Hungarians.
To relieve the tedium of the long seclusion, when word came that a young sorceress had been discovered in an outlying farm, Arni declared it to be a positive omen from the Gods. After a period of quarantine spent in the tunnels, Yrsa was allowed into the palace to take up the role of Völva, which had not been filled for many years.
Hysing came up with what seemed a good idea and the treasury, kept healthy enough by the raiding program, was used to provide provincial apothecaries throughout the Imperial demesne counties. Anything to help the hoped-for post-plague recovery.
And despite the long confinement of the seclusion, Arni found it in himself to treat people nicely, earning him a reputation for kindness. By this time, Arni’s potential military resources had begun to recover somewhat as the effects of the plague gradually receded in the west of the empire, at least.
But the run of good news could not continue, of course, with yet another new epidemic outbreak reported on 1 November, this time a new smallpox infection spreading from Norfolk in England.
As the effects of the plague washed through the empire, from west to east, the Fylkir maintained a healthy preponderance over his most powerful magnates, but the gap had been narrowed in recent months as the heart of the imperial demesne in Russia was depleted. And in an indication of the power of Lotharingia, the leader of its rebellion now counted as the second most powerful lord in the realm, followed by Þorsteinn of Sviþjod, Jarl Rikulfr and Jarl Toke of Lothian.
The raid of Chuy ended on 25 November, having looted three holdings for 180 gold and no troop losses. They prepared for the long march over difficult terrain back to the Russian border county of Chach, which would take until late January, after which they would try to find some new raiding targets. After assisting the local lord retake an occupied holding, they would still be there in early July 1077.
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January-July 1077: Counting the Cost
By early February 1077, the plague had lifted from Poland and starting to do so in western Russia, while the smallpox epidemic was expanding through the Balkans, also crossing over from Norfolk into Brabant, while consumption spread in northern Italy.
Even as the prospect of a reopening in Holmgarðr grew, another unfortunate courtier was expelled in early March after showing signs of illness: no chances would be taken this close to the end of what had proven an effective lockdown so far.
More temptation to reopen came in mid-April, as Hel’s Breath showed signs of imminent withdrawal. But still Arni would not relax the seclusion, earning him a reputation for cowardice he greatly regretted, but decided he would live with. Rather than seeing his family destroyed so close to the end of their ordeal.
Just three weeks later, the gates were opened, though of course most people throughout the county and empire felt Arni had abandoned them. All this acted to again reduce the number of levies the Fylkir could call upon if needed. But he, the immediate Imperial Family and most of the court had survived the ordeal of Hel’s Breath.
Later in May, after two holdings had been looted in Temes for 188 gold for the loss of 438 raiders, the close approach of smallpox led the raiders, now commanded by King Þorsteinn of Sviþjod, to end the raid and head north all the way through Hungary to the safety of Uppeln. From there, new orders would be issued, whether to support the Jomsvikings in Bordeaux or conduct more local raiding in northern Hungary.
The Imperial Marshal, Godi Starkaðr of Jamborg, emerged from seclusion on 15 June to resume his duties. Now only Chancellor Jarl Bertil of Belo Ozero and the new Steward Jarl Karl of Rostov remained in lockdown, the rest of the Council resuming their full duties.
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2 July 1077: The State of Play
As at the start of July 1077, Ladoga was the last of the Russian Imperial demesne counties to emerge from the plague (its residual effect on the economy would last for another month). Of the four core counties, depopulation ranged from minor to severe. Only the baronies of Torzhok and Toropets were producing some minimal tax revenue, while in Holmgarðr (hit hardest of all) and Ladoga the local economies were still shrinking.
Despite the unrest in Russia, none of it was serious enough to generate an actual risk of revolt: the main effect was to suppress the tax take.
The Black Death still held sway over the steppe lands and continued to hem the eastern raiders into the area to the south and south-east of the Aral Sea, not wishing to take a large force through plague-infested lands. Having already raided the most lucrative local Samanid targets, they waited patiently for it to lift. And smallpox now ravaged most of the unfortunate Byzantines' heartland.
After the plague lifted in the west, conversions to Germanicism had taken off again in 1076, with two in France (Saintois and Forcalquier), two in Germany (Lüneburg and Altmark) and one each in the Low Counties (Zealand) and Poland (Laslisz) between February 1076 and June 1077). It seems they had decided to seek deliverance from a new set of Gods.
As mentioned above, the effect on population levels (noted below for the imperial demesne counties from when Paris first suffered depopulation in November 1072). In the end, it was Rouen and Holmgarðr itself that had been hit the hardest, while Toropets and Torzhok had got off
relatively lightly.
After reaching a low point in May 1076, Imperial revenues began to gradually improve afterwards, though by July 1077 they were still at very low levels compared to before the pandemic. Expenses had gradually decreased as the retinue regathered its strength, so only a small monthly deficit now persisted. Raiding had kept the treasury healthy enough, with a halt to new building in recent years and only selective spending authorised.
It was now up to Arni to decide what path to take next as a battered world slowly emerged from the horror of the recent years. And for some, with war, smallpox and other epidemics now raging in some areas, the horror was not yet over.
One of the first questions to be answered was whether to let Lotharingia’s wars go on unchecked, to keep it within check, or to intervene to prevent one of the most expansive marcher lord realms being too badly weakened.