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UltimaGecko

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Mussolini makes the trains run on time in Italy? Who will do the same for the United States?
plotters.png


Borne from chance events and twists of fate, you could (eventually) see the mighty United States fall under the boot of facism as rich industrialists and idealistic personalities aspire to the economic success of mid-30s fascism - by plotting to overthrow the United States government.



As unbalanced as it was, I was interested in having a US ally for a Germany game. But, being the history nut I am, I wasn't really content with the simplistic coup options available (even with the hefty 1-3% coup chance). I feel without some well-orchestrated political manuevering or civil war (however widespread), it was 100% unlikely that a German coup attempt would be able to install the likes of Fritz Kuhn and Pelley. Then I found that orchestrating a civil war that lasts more than a few months can be difficult (I've managed to get it to about 1.5 years).

So on and off over the last few days I've been researching and modding a somewhat realistic Business Plot for the US, which plausibly (to the extent possible) builds off the economic and political situation in the United States between 1933 and 1939.


I do have a majority of the events coded already, but they probably need some tweaking and testing (as unlikely as it is for one of the plot avenues to succeed as is) - once I finish the chain.


As it stands, I've run into a decision-making wall, mostly because I wanted to keep the "mod" as portable as possible, but I'm not sure what people would like to see

1. Is it enough to use the CSA to represent a Second Civil War? The way I have it set up now the couped US reverts to democracy and the CSA becomes the fascist revolters, just because the US had more available ministers to work with. Or should I take the time to create a country.

2. Would it be worth it to make a full-fledged mini-mod with ministers, event pictures and decision pictures? I'd have to find somewhere to host the files (instead of just 20kb of text). As it stands now, all you'd need is the text (and the strings for the event descriptions, since the in-line character limit is too small). This could include some ai switches to stop the US from creating province improvements during a civil war.


For a sample of what I have right now:
Code:
# 		BUSINESS PLOT EVENTS
# 	1100280 - USA 	Gold Standard				
# 	1100281 - USA  [decision] Bonus Army											
# 	1100282 - USA 	Bonus Army - waited	(no decision in 1100281)
# 	1100283 - USA 	Financial Disarray		
# 	1100284 - USA 	Financial Recovery I - historical recovery		(sleeps 1100285)
# 	1100285 - USA 	Financial Recovery II - late recovery			(sleeps 1100284)
# 	1100286 - USA 	Business Moguls	[80% Butler is chosen, historical]
# 	1100287 - USA 	Butler to testify	[does not happen if veterans are not helped]
# 	1100288 - ***  [decision] Butler Assassination financing 					(for main fascist players)
# 	1100289 - USA 	Butler testifies to committee
# 	1100290 - USA 	Butler assassinated  [5% default, higher with 1100288 intervention]
# 	1100291 - USA 	American Liberty League [80% chance of less prominent leader, historical]
#	1100292 - USA 	Conspirators Indicted [ends chance of self-coup] 
#	1100293 - USA 	Huey Long assassination attempt [90% chance Long is killed, historical]
#	1100294 - USA 	Democratic VP candidate [90% chance of Davis]
#	1100295 - USA 	Alternate 1936 election, FDR+Davis [95% Democratic Victory] - sleeps both PI/DH election events
#	1100296 - USA 	Alternate 1936 election, FDR+Garner [50% Democratic Victory]
#
#	1100304 - USA 	Death of Davis [Davis expires in 1936, despite living until 1955] *Event only exists due to minister dates*
# 	1100306 - USA	Recession of 1937	[lessened effects if Bonus Army was paid out before; requires Second New Deal]
#	1100307 - USA	Recession of 1937 recovery	
#
#		FLAGS 
#
#	local flag - USABonusArmyHistorical - Roosevelt offers jobs 
#	local flag - USABonusArmySocialist  - Roosevelt pays out reimbursement
#	local flag - USABonusArmyForcedOut  - Roosevelt follows Hoovers example and uses military force
#	local flag - USABonusArmyWaitedOut  - Roosevelt/PC/AI does nothing.
#
#	local flag = USACoupRepButler - historical Business Plot; Butler
#	local flag = USACoupRepDuPont - alternative backer; MacNider/MacArthur

# 	flag = ButlerAssassinationPlot - plot to asssinate Smedley Butler
# 	local flag = ButlerAssassinationPlotter - tag the plotter
# 	local flag = USACoupButlerTestimonySubmitted - Butler has testified

#	local flag = USA_ALLDuPontHead - Industrialists take active role in the league
#	local flag = USA_ALLAnonymousBackers - historical ALL
#  	local flag = USA_LongSurvives - Huey Long survives assassination attempt
# 	local flag = USACoupDavisVP - Davis as Democratic VP candidate
#	local flag = USALongGarnerVP - Garner remains VP candidate and Long is alive


There will be two avenues to getting the fascists in power (other avenues will lead the US more socialist or just much more isolationist or follow the historical path):

(the more unrealistic option)
1. Roosevelt administration uses force to subdue the Bonus Army (like Hoover/MacArthur)
2. Plotters recruit Smedley Butler
[3. Constant industrialist rhetoric and economic downturns hamper New Deal support]
4. Butler is assassinated and used as a martyr to get veteran support to overthrow the government
5. The coup is semi-successful and there's civil war; the coup is defeated

(the slightly more likely option for historical plausibility)
1. Plotters recruit an alternate leader (MacNider, for example); or Butler is picked and then assassinated before testifying
2. American Liberty League is officially headed by a prominent industrialist that denounces New Deal Policies or New Deal recovery is slow and denounced by industrialists publically
3. Huey Long is not assassinated and uses his Share Our Wealth platform to run a Presidential candidate [basically a 10% chance of this happening by itself]
4. Roosevelt is obligated to run an alternative VP candidate
5. 1937 recession and constant rhetoric by prominent industrialists lowers public opinion of Roosevelt, providing an environment for the coup
6. The coup is semi-successful and there's civil war; the coup is defeated

And if the fascist/paternal autocrat (probably nominally still "democratic", just not in game terms) USA may intervene for Germany (embargo the allies or join the war), or remain isolationist.


As a side effect, the chain should help better model the fragility of the US economic situation and the difficulty of recovery (particularly the fact the 1937/8 recession is missing). I'd expect the US to not field quite as much IC overall (probably closer to 500-550 instead of 600 by late 1940), even if the coup never comes close to succeeding.

[edit] I should point out that I'm using NWO, but could conceivably mod it to fit just basic DH.
 
Last edited:
Really cool.

You should contact burning, of the aar mod, he can help you out with hosting.

And please base it on DH Full, this sounds like something that would be worth including in the main game when it reaches the quality your description promises.
 
As unbalanced as it was, I was interested in having a US ally for a Germany game. But, being the history nut I am, I wasn't really content with the simplistic coup options available (even with the hefty 1-3% coup chance). I feel without some well-orchestrated political manuevering or civil war (however widespread), it was 100% unlikely that a German coup attempt would be able to install the likes of Fritz Kuhn and Pelley. Then I found that orchestrating a civil war that lasts more than a few months can be difficult (I've managed to get it to about 1.5 years).

So on and off over the last few days I've been researching and modding a somewhat realistic Business Plot for the US, which plausibly (to the extent possible) builds off the economic and political situation in the United States between 1933 and 1939.


I do have a majority of the events coded already, but they probably need some tweaking and testing (as unlikely as it is for one of the plot avenues to succeed as is) - once I finish the chain.


As it stands, I've run into a decision-making wall, mostly because I wanted to keep the "mod" as portable as possible, but I'm not sure what people would like to see

1. Is it enough to use the CSA to represent a Second Civil War? The way I have it set up now the couped US reverts to democracy and the CSA becomes the fascist revolters, just because the US had more available ministers to work with. Or should I take the time to create a country.

2. Would it be worth it to make a full-fledged mini-mod with ministers, event pictures and decision pictures? I'd have to find somewhere to host the files (instead of just 20kb of text). As it stands now, all you'd need is the text (and the strings for the event descriptions, since the in-line character limit is too small). This could include some ai switches to stop the US from creating province improvements during a civil war.


For a sample of what I have right now:
Code:
# 		BUSINESS PLOT EVENTS
# 	1100280 - USA 	Gold Standard				
# 	1100281 - USA  [decision] Bonus Army											
# 	1100282 - USA 	Bonus Army - waited	(no decision in 1100281)
# 	1100283 - USA 	Financial Disarray		
# 	1100284 - USA 	Financial Recovery I - historical recovery		(sleeps 1100285)
# 	1100285 - USA 	Financial Recovery II - late recovery			(sleeps 1100284)
# 	1100286 - USA 	Business Moguls	[80% Butler is chosen, historical]
# 	1100287 - USA 	Butler to testify	[does not happen if veterans are not helped]
# 	1100288 - ***  [decision] Butler Assassination financing 					(for main fascist players)
# 	1100289 - USA 	Butler testifies to committee
# 	1100290 - USA 	Butler assassinated  [5% default, higher with 1100288 intervention]
# 	1100291 - USA 	American Liberty League [80% chance of less prominent leader, historical]
#	1100292 - USA 	Conspirators Indicted [ends chance of self-coup] 
#	1100293 - USA 	Huey Long assassination attempt [90% chance Long is killed, historical]
#	1100294 - USA 	Democratic VP candidate [90% chance of Davis]
#	1100295 - USA 	Alternate 1936 election, FDR+Davis [95% Democratic Victory] - sleeps both PI/DH election events
#	1100296 - USA 	Alternate 1936 election, FDR+Garner [50% Democratic Victory]
#
#	1100304 - USA 	Death of Davis [Davis expires in 1936, despite living until 1955] *Event only exists due to minister dates*
# 	1100306 - USA	Recession of 1937	[lessened effects if Bonus Army was paid out before; requires Second New Deal]
#	1100307 - USA	Recession of 1937 recovery	
#
#		FLAGS 
#
#	local flag - USABonusArmyHistorical - Roosevelt offers jobs 
#	local flag - USABonusArmySocialist  - Roosevelt pays out reimbursement
#	local flag - USABonusArmyForcedOut  - Roosevelt follows Hoovers example and uses military force
#	local flag - USABonusArmyWaitedOut  - Roosevelt/PC/AI does nothing.
#
#	local flag = USACoupRepButler - historical Business Plot; Butler
#	local flag = USACoupRepDuPont - alternative backer; MacNider/MacArthur

# 	flag = ButlerAssassinationPlot - plot to asssinate Smedley Butler
# 	local flag = ButlerAssassinationPlotter - tag the plotter
# 	local flag = USACoupButlerTestimonySubmitted - Butler has testified

#	local flag = USA_ALLDuPontHead - Industrialists take active role in the league
#	local flag = USA_ALLAnonymousBackers - historical ALL
#  	local flag = USA_LongSurvives - Huey Long survives assassination attempt
# 	local flag = USACoupDavisVP - Davis as Democratic VP candidate
#	local flag = USALongGarnerVP - Garner remains VP candidate and Long is alive


There will be two avenues to getting the fascists in power (other avenues will lead the US more socialist or just much more isolationist or follow the historical path):

(the more unrealistic option)
1. Roosevelt administration uses force to subdue the Bonus Army (like Hoover/MacArthur)
2. Plotters recruit Smedley Butler
[3. Constant industrialist rhetoric and economic downturns hamper New Deal support]
4. Butler is assassinated and used as a martyr to get veteran support to overthrow the government
5. The coup is semi-successful and there's civil war; the coup is defeated

(the slightly more likely option for historical plausibility)
1. Plotters recruit an alternate leader (MacNider, for example); or Butler is picked and then assassinated before testifying
2. American Liberty League is officially headed by a prominent industrialist that denounces New Deal Policies or New Deal recovery is slow and denounced by industrialists publically
3. Huey Long is not assassinated and uses his Share Our Wealth platform to run a Presidential candidate [basically a 10% chance of this happening by itself]
4. Roosevelt is obligated to run an alternative VP candidate
5. 1937 recession and constant rhetoric by prominent industrialists lowers public opinion of Roosevelt, providing an environment for the coup
6. The coup is semi-successful and there's civil war; the coup is defeated

And if the fascist/paternal autocrat (probably nominally still "democratic", just not in game terms) USA may intervene for Germany (embargo the allies or join the war), or remain isolationist.


As a side effect, the chain should help better model the fragility of the US economic situation and the difficulty of recovery (particularly the fact the 1937/8 recession is missing). I'd expect the US to not field quite as much IC overall (probably closer to 500-550 instead of 600 by late 1940), even if the coup never comes close to succeeding.

[edit] I should point out that I'm using NWO, but could conceivably mod it to fit just basic DH.
Pretty sweet, I am going to have a business plot occur in my Mod as well. it will set the stage for a great chain of secession and a possible second American civil war. when you're done may I use some of your material?
 
Last edited:
I hope to include a relatively functional civil war and a complete chain of events, so I wouldn't imagine it'd be too dificult to (eventually) throw in a bigger mod. I'm not sure about later successions; I suppose in the end I'd need something to sleep the 1940s elections or trend the US back towards them. Plus I'd like to think I'm pretty good at commenting my events due to years of programming in high school.


So I figured I'd make it a bit more complete and started working on some ministers. I probably could have advanced the event chain a bit further today, but I decided to vote instead. :p


Introducing the main people wound up in the plot or empowered by it.
plotters.png

(...err, except for William Borah on the left there, that should be Robert Clark but apparently I don't pay attention when I make my graphics)

Plus some other ministers to flesh out Huey Long's Union Party's bid which, despite Long's arguments, has quite a bit of socialism involved. Of course, the chances of becoming communist should be about 1:100 to becoming fascist ...and becoming fascist is a pretty big longshot already.
 
Well, we can definitely help you out with hosting, but there is something more I would be interested in:
Would you interested in extended this event chain into the interwar period? That way you could also simulate the events that might theoretically lead to a successful plot. Imho starting in 1930 or 1928 (at the start of the depression, where it all began), you could offer a lot more realistic scenario.
 
I wouldn't mind extending it and fleshing it out a bit more in both directions, but there's not much to be done earlier from a historical standpoint.

I started my chain in 1933, although the first inklings came in 1934 (with Butler's testimony, naturally). Overall it was mostly a response to Roosevelt's policies and the tendency of most big business owners to favor like-minded politicians. When FDR got voted in many of them feared his New Deal policies would run rampantly socialist, kill free market business practices and possibly even nationalize industries. One of the alledged plotters said it best (paraphrased): "If I have 30 million dollars and can spend 15 to save the other 15, don't you think I'd do that?" So the goal was setting up what essentially amounts to a fascist corporate state.

Most of the events before 1933 would impact individual people moreso than the plot itself. Things like Hoover sending the military against the Bonus Army in 1932 (and hypothetically Butler and MacArthur's role/thoughts), Al Smith's election bid and the like.

You'd basically need "Depression" + "Democrat/Progressive in the White House" + "Social Welfare Programs" (New Deal) to get the plot started, so it doesn't make much sense for a comprehensive, functional plot to form before November 1932.