Prior to reviewing this analysis, I must emphasize the basis of my perspective. My involvement with Victoria 3 predates its official release, and I have been an active mod developer for the game since that time. One of my mods continues to be ranked among the most popular available today. I offer this context to underscore the depth of my understanding regarding Victoria 3.
For those closely following Victoria 3, it should be apparent that the pace of DLC and major updates has slowed considerably compared to previous cycles. According to the typical development schedule, a significant update for Victoria 3 would have been expected in March. However, this has evidently been postponed until June.
The likely reason for this delay is a reduction in staffing within the Victoria 3 development team. It is reasonable to infer that personnel have been reassigned, potentially to bolster teams working on titles such as Hearts of Iron IV or Crusader Kings III.
Why would such reassignments occur? The underlying cause would logically be Victoria 3's underperformance. On this point, extensive elaboration is scarcely necessary; one need only consult the daily concurrent player statistics on Steam for Victoria 3 to observe the trend.
Furthermore, examining the recent announcements regarding upcoming content reveals a concerning pattern. The vast majority of the purported "updates"—with the notable exception of the trade system overhaul—constitute minor content additions, such as national flavor elements. This type of content, while potentially welcome, could readily be implemented by the modding community. Yet, this appears to form the bulk of the planned "DLC" strategy for the next year.
Therefore, based on these observations, I contend that Victoria 3, in its current trajectory, must be considered a failure.
It is crucial to stress that this failure is entirely attributable to internal decision-making. It is not the fault of the player base, nor can it be solely ascribed to external market conditions. The responsibility lies squarely with the Victoria 3 development team, or perhaps more specifically, with the game's lead designer(s). Over the past three years, this team has consistently made perplexing strategic choices:
Refusal to Reform the Military System: There has been a persistent unwillingness to overhaul the fundamentally flawed military system currently in place. I will not belabor the point excessively; if an individual perceives the existing system as adequate or even optimal, I can only express profound disagreement and difficulty in comprehending such a viewpoint.
Misguided DLC Prioritization: Even granting the development team myriad justifications for inaction on the military front, have other, more straightforward aspects been handled competently? Specifically, why did the team, over the past three years, elect to prioritize DLC development for regions like South America and India, rather than focusing on nations such as Japan, China, Germany,or the United States? It is highly probable that among the Victoria 3 player base, individuals primarily interested in the Chinese and American experiences vastly outnumber those focused on all other nations combined. Conversely, how substantial is the player segment genuinely invested in the South American or Indian content?
Lack of Strategic Cohesion: From the preceding points, it becomes evident that the V3 development team has failed on two critical fronts: they have neither significantly enhanced the game's core engagement and enjoyment ('fun'), nor have they successfully bolstered its commercial viability ('profitability'). Consequently, a decision by Paradox Interactive to deprioritize or potentially abandon further significant investment in Victoria 3 seems not only plausible but logical. Were I in a decision-making position at Paradox, I too would question the allocation of company resources over three years to a team demonstrating such a consistent pattern of baffling strategic choices.
