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But the big movie/play/made up dramatic spin-offs would, alas, blow out the length too much I think, for what I have planned. So at this stage, I don't plan any of those: they will remain idiosyncratic to TT. With all respect, we won't be dipping our beaks in that well of inspiration this time!
The coup on Hitler is very plausible to me. Communist Japan overthrowing the dynasty probably requires either major civil war or extreme military losses.
Oh my, a very powerful opening @Bullfilter! I will do my best, as I follow, not to moan too much about the [swear word] focus trees and all the chaos that they bring. I'm particularly looking forward to how your Poland finds her way in the world; I'm not sure that I would have aligned with the UK, there's naff all (beyond Naval pressure) that she can do to help you defend the homeland.
As ever beautifully presented (I liked the OTL explanatory bits BTW) and a welcome addition to the insanity-fest that is the HOI4 area.
EDIT: Out of caution have removed the asterisked out suggestion of swear words.
By gum, you've done it @Bullfilter ! I'm reading a damned HoI4 AAR!
Excellent to get in on the ground floor, as it were, and looking forward to what transpires here. My goodness...no Hitler? Can we make Stalin more of a devil than he already was? Or will Poland be the threat? A lot of possibilities.
Great to see a new one!
Hmmm...so that's 137 AARs...minus two...add one...cypher the 9...math is hard.
More comment feedback, next I'm back to Poland and the next phase of the alt-world going to hell in a handbasket! Thanks for all the support everyone, I really appreciate it.
Chemists, pianists, poets... painters?
Jokes aside people like that often have some sort of imagination and diferent view on the world (good, bad or insane it depends) than typical politicians or military officers leading countries
Polish Technocracy anyone?
In most cases, they will do no worse than the politicians of the time. Those that did make a big impact measured their 'success' in millions of deaths The only problem is the number of murderous megalomaniacs in charge of neighbouring countries ... still a problem in the modern world. So a Polish arto-technocracy would be a very welcome outcome, I reckon!
Thanks for joining in! Yes, many changes already, and you will soon find out about yet more to come. World gone mad hardly qualifies as hyperbole for this one. Plus the usual leavening of crazy AI behaviour, which tends to balance itself out on both (or more?) sides, given Poland is a mid-sized but not large influence on world events. So far, anyway.
I agree - there were a few scenarios for it that never came off, up to and including the Czech crisis. Happy to see the monster slain so early, and by internal action. We will see which direction the Junta turns in coming months. Being such a newb to the game (HOI4), I had no idea even what their choices of direction might be, let alone the likelihood or indicators of a particular path being chosen, in Germany ... or Japan. And I like it that way.
I think there may have been a short civil war in Japan at the time, but it didn't register in the war results or historical record and I wasn't tracking other developments very closely at that time. It does seem rather implausible, but then most things do when you know the actual historical result, I guess.
Oh my, a very powerful opening @Bullfilter! I will do my best, as I follow, not to moan too much about the [swear word] focus trees and all the chaos that they bring. I'm particularly looking forward to how your Poland finds her way in the world; I'm not sure that I would have aligned with the UK, there's naff all (beyond Naval pressure) that she can do to help you defend the homeland.
Thank you! In this instance, I'm welcoming and embracing the chaos, as that is what my evil and tricksy mind craves. It's even better, as:
I have no real idea what any of the other focus trees contain as possible paths, and
Therefore (as mentioned earlier) neither do I have any idea what the branches are once a particular national focus is adopted by one of the other AI countries.
So Poland finding its way includes me figuring out how the focus trees work, discovering which branches I probably should have looked at earlier, and running head first into the implications of choices I made without really knowing what I was doing or how these things would pan out for Poland in isolation nor in its relations with other major countries. I treasure this kind of game-naivety, as it improves the experience and is more realistic. We already have a big enough advantage knowing how OTL turned out and playing against an AI!
Hence, I don't even know what Naval Pressure is (if that's a specific game thing or just the fact the UK has a big navy and can throw it around) or how useful the British might be in-game (as in OTL). Whether the decision was wise or not also depends on who else later joins the Allies and who opposes them ... and who takes the reins in the UK in the late 1930s. More to follow shortly ...
Thank you my friend, I saw there weren't actually that many HOI4 AARs currently being updated, so thought I'd add a bit more to the cyber-space junk floating around out there!
Caution is always the responsible way but, while I doubt this AAR will get very sweary, my violet is not a shrinking one and Talking Turkey in did have the odd bit of blue language when dramatically appropriate (usually in the paraphrased movie scripts I notoriously used to spice up the narrative portions).
Excellent to get in on the ground floor, as it were, and looking forward to what transpires here. My goodness...no Hitler? Can we make Stalin more of a devil than he already was? Or will Poland be the threat? A lot of possibilities.
And thank you so much for doing so. For this one, I hope to keep it fairly light and concise (yes, I know my firends out there will be smirking and shaking their heads, but I promise, honest to God, I'll be good this time). So updates probably around 7-10 days apart and all limited in length, which I'll use to determine when to cut off a chapter, rather than eking out the maximum number of screenshots for chapter 12 Word pages in length!
As for Stalin ... you may say that, but (knowing what happens over the next couple of years) I couldn't possibly comment!
Well, yes, I plead guilty, yer honours. Admitting I have a problem is the first step in ... writing more AARs!
To All: OK, I'm off to finish writing up the next piece. There will be game play interspersed with OTL comparative events (as asides) to let us see how far things diverge from the OTL course of history. But as mentioned previously, I'll focus them mainly on events in or affecting Poland in OTL and/or in-gamiverse. For more general developments in OTL, I rely on the arcane general knowledge of my alert and learned readAARship to make their own comparisons and contrasts, all of which are very welcome in commentary.
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Chapter Two – A More Dangerous World (June 1937 – October 1938)
Chapter Two – A More Dangerous World (June 1937 – October 1938)
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The Slippery Slope (June-November 1937)
Even as the world moved in strange new directions and edged ever closer to violence and chaos, in Poland the recent past was being honoured. In particular, the effective founder of the current government (which would no doubt be described as a ‘regime’ by most other countries). On 20 June, Bishop Adam Stefan Sapieha confirmed his plan to move the body of Józef Piłsudski to a crypt located under the Silver Bell Tower of the Wawel.
Józef Klemens Piłsudski (5 December 1867 – 12 May 1935) was a Polish statesman who served as the Chief of State (1918–1922) and First Marshal of Poland (from 1920). He was considered the de facto leader (1926–35) of the Second Polish Republic as the Minister of Military Affairs.
The world got more dangerous in July 1937, when China descended into war. Nationalist China progressively declared war on its neighbouring Chinese warlord statelets between 18 July to 23 August. They then received support from Yunnan on 13 September. By the 15th, battles raged along China’s borders with Xibei San Ma, Shanxi and the Guangxi Clique.
The 1937 Peasant strike in Poland began on 15 August. On the 19th police killed two peasants, who were blocking the road at the village in Harta. The peasant strike ended on 25 August after 15 peasants were killed by the police in the village of Majdan Sieniawski.
By mid-September, the civil war in Mexico had turned decisively against the Fascist Junta, the non-aligned Mexican Republic emerging as the leaders.
By this time, the two Polish Armies (1st in the west, 2nd in the east) had been organised and developed a little, with most units on the borders and some held back in reserve, with no obvious immediate threat determined. Recent fighter production had seen a new wing formed and deployed to support the eastern army, based in Nowogródek. The rest remained in Poznan and Warsaw.
Then momentous news broke on 27 October 1937. Leon (Lev) Trotsky had returned to Russia at the Black Sea port of Odessa, declared himself leader of a rival Union of Soviet Republics (USR) and sparking a Soviet Civil War!
In the initial dispositions, it looked like Stalin and the USSR had retained the bulk of territory and industrial resources, but Trotsky’s USR looked to have a significant advantage in troop numbers – as far as Polish analysts could ascertain.
This was one of four essentially civil wars now going on around the world. The level of global violence and tension was rising, while the slope of international relations was beginning to get steeper and more slippery.
The first celebration of Polish National Independence Day was held on 11 November in this atmosphere of increasing world tension, balanced for Poland by upheaval and seeming disintegration in its two biggest and traditionally most threatening neighbours.
Polish National Independence Day Parade.
Predictably, the Mexican Civil War ended with the victory of the Republican forces on 22 November 1937.
At home, the Polish Government hired the tank designers PZinż on 26 November and began the development of the first new indigenous light tank design, the TKS. This was the beginning of the planned development of a core of armoured and motorised divisions to eventually form a mechanised manoeuvre force.
In Germany, von Mackensen’s Military Junta still ruled the country and, despite the continued bitterness over their defeat in the Great War and their subsequent treatment, they were trying to rebuild and revitalise the nation. The current focus of their government was not known, but most importantly it seemed the Junta had agreed to re-establish free elections.
This was a source of cautious hope for Poland and would be better than them falling into extreme right wing revanchism or communist revolution. But after testing the waters, it was clear that the Germans were not yet ready to agree a non-aggression pact with Poland, despite a previous Polish diplomatic influence campaign.
At this time, Pierre Laval’s Parti Radical was ascendant in France, with the next election not due until May 1940.
As a result of all this, Poland had decided that the danger on the German border was diminished and it was the eastern border – whether it would be Stalin or Trotsky running the Soviet system – that posed the greater threat. They began a systematic plan to start strengthening their defences and infrastructure in the east. This would later include addition (manual, via civil industrial production) improvements to the railway network.
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An Approaching Storm (December 1937 – September 1938)
It was Mussolini that ratcheted up tensions in the West at this point, with threatening revanchist claims made on Yugoslavia. This was an entirely different proposition to a brutal invasion and conquest of far-off Ethiopia. Yugoslavia had friends in Europe – including France. The situation in Europe was becoming more dangerous by the day.
In the Soviet Civil War, it appeared by mid-December 1937 that Trotsky’s USR had gained a decisive edge over the failing Soviet Union run by Stalin.
As tensions rose in early 1938, the first few months recorded no significant new developments.
On 16 March 1938, in Warsaw's Royal Castle, Edward Rydz-Śmigły, Felicjan Sławoj Składkowski, Eugeniusz Kwiatkowski, and Józef Beck meet to discuss Polish – Lithuanian conflict. The next day, the Polish Ultimatum was sent to Lithuania. On the same day, textile workers of Łódź and surrounding towns declare a warning strike.
In Wilno and Warsaw, on 18 March thousands of inhabitants take part in an anti-Lithuanian demonstration. Among Polish officials present at the demonstration in Wilno is the commander-in-chief of the Polish Army, Edward Śmigły-Rydz.
The government of Lithuania accepted the Polish Ultimatum the next day. On 28 March, Franciszek Charwat arrived in Kaunas as the first Polish diplomatic representative in Lithuania. On the 31st Poland and Lithuania formally established diplomatic relations.
Contemporary OTL reporting of the Polish Ultimatum to Lithuania, March 1938. This event may still occur later in this ATL, but that remains to be seen.
Then in March, the dominant Conservative government in the UK (100% popularity? Really?) chose Winston Churchill, the ‘British Bulldog’ as Prime Minister. This signalled an end to the previous policy of appeasement: even though it seemed to have worked well enough regarding Germany! Still, with Italy throwing its weight around in Europe, a thrown gauntlet may yet be required.
Trotsky triumphed in the Soviet Civil War on 8 April 1938. It was unclear to the Poles what the consequences of this may be for them: would Trotsky try to eventually initiate a continuous and world-wide revolution? And the fate of the deposed and unlamented Stalin himself was as yet unknown.
The Polish diplomatic response was to initiate a campaign to further improve relations with the UK on 8 April.
At this tense time, Poland appointed a new ambassador to Italy. Bolesław Wieniawa-Długoszowski, arrived in Rome on 3 June. Bolesław Ignacy Florian Wieniawa-Długoszowski (b. 22 July 1881) was a Polish general and adjutant to Chief of State Józef Piłsudski. He was one of the generation that fought for, and saw, the rebirth of an independent Poland on 11 November 1918 (National Independence Day). It promised to be an eventful tour of duty in the most prominent European Fascist state.
Bolesław Wieniawa-Długoszowski, Polish Ambassador to Italy
In OTL, Wieniawa remained the Polish Ambassador in Rome until 13 June 1940. On 17 September 1939, he was nominated president of Poland by retiring President Ignacy Mościcki. On the same day, Poland was invaded by the Soviet Union and he took the train from Rome to Paris to take on his new role. His appointment was published in the Official Journal, Monitor Polski, on 25 September 1939. This appointment was (apparently, according to Wikipedia) blackballed by the French Third Republic and also opposed by Władysław Sikorski. After the capitulation of France, he emigrated to New York travelling via Lisbon.
Once in the USA, Wieniawa settled in New York. He was unable to get any position in the Polish army from Sikorski, since he was part of the Piłsudskiist Sanation Movement (which ruled Poland from 1926 to 1939), which Sikorski was opposed to. Wieniawa, after an new diplomatic appointment fell through and caught up in the murky political undercurrents of Polish émigré politics, moved back to New York, apparently lost hope and took his own life on 1 July 1942.
Churchill would not have liked the latest expression of Indian independence sentiment that came at the end of June 1938. How long would he be able to keep a lid on potential discontent?
In early July, the Spanish Civil War was still going, but leaning heavily in the Nationalists’ favour. In China, the conflict still seemed to be evenly balanced, with Communist China having joined in the fray against the Nationalists (at some point I didn’t record).
Taking all this raised world tension into account, Poland took the decisive step on 15 August 1938 to begin formal affiliation with the UK-led Allies, following on from its successful alignment to the West.
Barely a month later, wonderful news came from Germany. Democracy had triumphed, with Konrad Adenauer’s Zentrum Party having won the first elections in September 1938. In an attempt to curry favour with the new German government, Poland made a unilateral offer of military access to Germany, which was duly accepted, even though the Germans were not yet ready to reciprocate.
It was perhaps an increasingly polarised world but Poland’s place in it seemed comparatively promising. For now.
By this time, the two Polish Armies (1st in the west, 2nd in the east) had been organised and developed a little, with most units on the borders and some held back in reserve
Then momentous news broke on 27 October 1937. Leon (Lev) Trotsky had returned to Russia at the Black Sea port of Odessa, declared himself leader of a rival Union of Soviet Republics (USR) and sparking a Soviet Civil War!
In Germany, von Mackensen’s Military Junta still ruled the country and, despite the continued bitterness over their defeat in the Great War and their subsequent treatment, they were trying to rebuild and revitalise the nation. The current focus of their government was not known, but most importantly it seemed the Junta had agreed to re-establish free elections.
I've only ever seen people take the path to restore Monarchism. It'll be interesting to see what this democratic Germany does, especially with Italy's Balkan claims and Trotsky's revolution.
HOI4 only models democracies as having one party (except for the US, sort of). So the 100% just means that everybody supports a democratic form of government.
The one with the little triangle in the bottom? Yes, that’s right. With any more that crop up, they should be explained by the accompanying text, titles, screenshots etc. I‘m afraid I simply can’t stand the units icons/figures, so always switch them off.
I've only ever seen people take the path to restore Monarchism. It'll be interesting to see what this democratic Germany does, especially with Italy's Balkan claims and Trotsky's revolution.
HOI4 only models democracies as having one party (except for the US, sort of). So the 100% just means that everybody supports a democratic form of government.
Although I did notice France and Germany had opposition parties in their little political pie charts. Hmmm. I just don’t know the game well enough to be able to add anything there.
Edit: Ah, I see from later comments that other non-democratic parties (eg communists, fascists etc) are shown, but the democratic ones are monolithic in that sense.
Then momentous news broke on 27 October 1937. Leon (Lev) Trotsky had returned to Russia at the Black Sea port of Odessa, declared himself leader of a rival Union of Soviet Republics (USR) and sparking a Soviet Civil War!
Oh...that's not good. At least with stalin you would have years to prep as he establishes control over the red army. Now? Trotsky is an internationalist, with an experienced and loyal army. Better hope that war lasts a while or you are screwed.
In Germany, von Mackensen’s Military Junta still ruled the country and, despite the continued bitterness over their defeat in the Great War and their subsequent treatment, they were trying to rebuild and revitalise the nation. The current focus of their government was not known, but most importantly it seemed the Junta had agreed to re-establish free elections.
Huh. That is quite out of character for the astonishingly far right and Conservative military. Maybe they've had an internal rethink and moved ever so slightly towards liberal democracy? That sounds very unlikely though. Probably more that in practice, they've realised they can't maintain power for long and need a civilian government again.
As a result of all this, Poland had decided that the danger on the German border was diminished and it was the eastern border – whether it would be Stalin or Trotsky running the Soviet system – that posed the greater threat.
chose Winston Churchill, the ‘British Bulldog’ as Prime Minister. This signalled an end to the previous policy of appeasement: even though it seemed to have worked well enough regarding Germany! Still, with Italy throwing its weight around in Europe, a thrown gauntlet may yet be required.
Trotsky triumphed in the Soviet Civil War on 8 April 1938. It was unclear to the Poles what the consequences of this may be for them: would Trotsky try to eventually initiate a continuous and world-wide revolution? And the fate of the deposed and unlamented Stalin himself was as yet unknown.
Churchill would not have liked the latest expression of Indian independence sentiment that came at the end of June 1938. How long would he be able to keep a lid on potential discontent?
Eh...in game its a random 50/50 chance event so doesn't impact too much aside from a opinion slider...the UK can still do anything from total decolonisation *including Northern Ireland* to imperial federation. India does have a veto for their membership though...
In early July, the Spanish Civil War was still going, but leaning heavily in the Nationalists’ favour. In China, the conflict still seemed to be evenly balanced, with Communist China having joined in the fray against the Nationalists (at some point I didn’t record).
Honestly, this is good news, at least in universe if not game wise. Trotsky was interventionist in the extreme. Give a communist rebellion any staying power and they'll be not only funded but supported by war declarations. Its Honestly good for everyone that the Republicans are losing this time in Spain, otherwise there'd be a world war over that.
Barely a month later, wonderful news came from Germany. Democracy had triumphed, with Konrad Adenauer’s Zentrum Party having won the first elections in September 1938. In an attempt to curry favour with the new German government, Poland made a unilateral offer of military access to Germany, which was duly accepted, even though the Germans were not yet ready to reciprocate.
Wow...huh. OK. Definitely a paradigm shift in the military. Very, very good news to have a democracy at your back. But remember that, if not in game but in universe, this is still the German riech, they want your land, have not agreed to that border, and are fantastically militaristic within army circles. Be very wary.
World seems to look more like Cold War than World War. Democrats vs Internationalists. There are some Fascists and Nationalists, but would they be enough of a threat? Or maybe they would get otl Soviet treatment in the search of new allies by "Allies"
It's really interesting to see Trotsky instead of Stalin in theory it should heavily affect Soviet politics as Trotskist's ideologists push for world revolution and Stalin was more of a dictator, opportunist and cynic. For him ideology was only mean of power and legitimizing force. He proved it otl, when as a communist leader he called "russian nation" during "Operation Barbarossa"
If nothing else the HOI4 Civil Wars are quick and efficient. Famously the SCW takes years, yet completely overthrowing an entrenched and well supported dictator like Hitler or Stalin apparently takes a couple of months.
At home, the Polish Government hired the tank designers PZinż on 26 November and began the development of the first new indigenous light tank design, the TKS.
It's a British Carden-Lloyd tankette with a French machine gun and a US Ford A engine. This does not scream 'indigenous design' to me, but then I suppose Poland had to say it was in order to justify not paying the licence fees for all those items.
A Trotskyite Soviet Union does seem a much bigger threat than the Stalinist flavour, so while an alliance with Britain is all well and good it may be time to speak to Adenaur's Germany and see if they are interested in holding the line against the Communist hordes?
A Trotskyite Soviet Union does seem a much bigger threat than the Stalinist flavour, so while an alliance with Britain is all well and good it may be time to speak to Adenaur's Germany and see if they are interested in holding the line against the Communist hordes?
I think they should be. Trotsky absolutely was a global revolution, fight the world type and proudly boasted of it. So surely better for the Germans (and indeed the French and the rest of Europe) to have that fight early and on someone else's territory, like say Poland, than wait until the bear is at the door.
This timeline continues to astound and confound expectations. I've always wanted to see a Trotskyist game, so will be fascinated to see how that plays out – even if as others have said it's bad news for Poland. Churchill is at least a more dependable Allied leader than other British alternatives, but what practical use he could offer at this point I'm not certain. Need a few more chips to fall into place among the democracies to see how valuable the bloc will be, I think – starting with the Germans. Their 'democracy' in material fact is going to be a very concerning beast still…
As others said above, this is one of those wonderfully schematic bits of HOI4 game design that just means everyone is a true-blue democrat. But then I could well believe that everyone was a true-blue Tory also. (Particularly if Ernest Bevin decides to show up again… He was as Blue Labour as they come! Does anyone know if he's around in HOI4?)
I've only ever seen people take the path to restore Monarchism. It'll be interesting to see what this democratic Germany does, especially with Italy's Balkan claims and Trotsky's revolution.
I did a democratic Germany game once and the focus there ultimately headed towards forming a monolithic 'European Union' bloc. So handily playing into any and all stereotypes about reichs and supranational organisations and what have you…
I'm curious, @Bullfilter – can Poland still form the Intermarium? Suppose it's too late if you're an Allied nation, but it's a wacky left-field option that could be fun to reconsider if the Allies end up being useless.
I think they should be. Trotsky absolutely was a global revolution, fight the world type and proudly boasted of it. So surely better for the Germans (and indeed the French and the rest of Europe) to have that fight early and on someone else's territory, like say Poland, than wait until the bear is at the door.
Greetings comrades and enemies of the revolution! I have been thinking of making another AAR for a while, and have flirted with a few ideas. First I wanted to make a Austria-Hungary one, but I quickly lost interest. Then I flirted with the idea...
No Hitler, Root for Joey Boy to get his just desserts. Stalin lost, Musso better have a heavy hand or there is not a major villain to boo. Will Trotsky invade Poland? Will Germany join the allies against Mussolini/Trotsky? These and other tall tales will be answered by our teller of tall tales.
What if question, how would a Trotsky SU differ from Stalin's? Thank you
With all respect, we won't be dipping our beaks in that well of inspiration this time!
