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The big doctrinal difference between the two in my understanding (and despite possible popular conceptions, I'm not a scholar of Marxism–Leninism) is between Stalin's 'socialism in one country' model, whereby the prospect of world revolution was deemed unlikely and so the Soviet Union would have to survive on its own as an exemplar 'communist state', and Trotsky's theory of 'permanent revolution', which is much more focused on instigating the world revolution instead of sitting back and waiting for it or dismissing it outright. So Trotsky is probably worse for Poland in terms of who to have on your border – unless Poland happens to want to go Red, in which case his re-appearance is ideal.
In terms of what a Trotskyite SU might look like internally… it's hard to say, except I would expect less of a 'siege mentality' and potentially less of a paranoid ruling class (but this is debatable; Trotsky was his own kind of wacko). Any real difference will probably become appreciable when/if the SU takes over bits of Eastern Europe. Then it will be a question of what relationship Moscow establishes with its new clients/allies (ie potentially less asset stripping, more sincere attempts to keep an international communist bloc/economy afloat).
But this is all fairly vague conjecture. I'd be interested to know what Trotsky's focus tree has him doing in-game.
The big doctrinal difference between the two in my understanding (and despite possible popular conceptions, I'm not a scholar of Marxism–Leninism) is between Stalin's 'socialism in one country' model, whereby the prospect of world revolution was deemed unlikely and so the Soviet Union would have to survive on its own as an exemplar 'communist state', and Trotsky's theory of 'permanent revolution', which is much more focused on instigating the world revolution instead of sitting back and waiting for it or dismissing it outright. So Trotsky is probably worse for Poland in terms of who to have on your border – unless Poland happens to want to go Red, in which case his re-appearance is ideal.
In terms of what a Trotskyite SU might look like internally… it's hard to say, except I would expect less of a 'siege mentality' and potentially less of a paranoid ruling class (but this is debatable; Trotsky was his own kind of wacko). Any real difference will probably become appreciable when/if the SU takes over bits of Eastern Europe. Then it will be a question of what relationship Moscow establishes with its new clients/allies (ie potentially less asset stripping, more sincere attempts to keep an international communist bloc/economy afloat).
But this is all fairly vague conjecture. I'd be interested to know what Trotsky's focus tree has him doing in-game.
In broad policy terms, basically what stalin was doing, only the army is already loyal to him, because stalin nicked most of trotsky's economic plans. What would differ is that stalin wasn't as much of an interventionist (or rather, he'd intervene if it were good for Russia, not really because he was trying to ferment revolution everywhere) whereas trotsky would be funding every proper communist side in as many countries as possible.
It's why it's good news the nazis are already dead, because trotsky is probably going to prove some of their paranoia right in that there actually is a red menace coming for everyone. Now, theoretically, a unifed democratic europe can safely build an anti Soviet bloc without making the far right look so appealing.
True to an extent, but Stalin had the patience and political skills/senses that Trotsky lacked, that is after all why he won the OTL power struggle. My default assumption is that Trotsky will over-reach, annoy too many internal factions and end up being couped or 'retired' by the Politburo. Of course HOI4 won't model that in any meaningful way, but it's probably what would have happened.
What would differ is that stalin wasn't as much of an interventionist (or rather, he'd intervene if it were good for Russia, not really because he was trying to ferment revolution everywhere) whereas trotsky would be funding every proper communist side in as many countries as possible.
It's why it's good news the nazis are already dead, because trotsky is probably going to prove some of their paranoia right in that there actually is a red menace coming for everyone. Now, theoretically, a unifed democratic europe can safely build an anti Soviet bloc without making the far right look so appealing.
It would make an interesting scenario for an espionage focused work. Trotsky would put far more effort into disrupting elections, and be a far more worrisome 'red menace' than Stalin, so assuming the military side ends up with a European Alliance staring at the Soviets from the Polish border, the conflict would move to the diplomatic/espionage level. At least until Trotsky implodes the economy and get booted out.
The world got more dangerous in July 1937, when China descended into war. Nationalist China progressively declared war on its neighbouring Chinese warlord statelets between 18 July to 23 August. They then received support from Yunnan on 13 September. By the 15th, battles raged along China’s borders with Xibei San Ma, Shanxi and the Guangxi Clique.
Usually I would consider this to seal China's fate as a nominal United Front is needed to hold back Japan, but Japan in this ATL has gone Red so who knows if Marco Polo or similar is even on the table anymore.
Then momentous news broke on 27 October 1937. Leon (Lev) Trotsky had returned to Russia at the Black Sea port of Odessa, declared himself leader of a rival Union of Soviet Republics (USR) and sparking a Soviet Civil War!
At home, the Polish Government hired the tank designers PZinż on 26 November and began the development of the first new indigenous light tank design, the TKS. This was the beginning of the planned development of a core of armoured and motorised divisions to eventually form a mechanised manoeuvre force.
Looking at this and being generally unfamiliar with HoI4 in detail, I notice with some amusement that the focus tree concept is rather similar to the BICE mod, in that both are driven by a bunch of decision trees that place buildings or spawn units instead of using your intrinsic resources to produce them (which I never liked as a mechanic in BICE either). The difference here of course is that you can actually see the entire decision tree to plot your strategy, whereas with BICE you just have to memorize everything while playing and failing a few dozen times for lack of encyclopedic knowledge. Otherwise I am amused that the "casual" HoI4 and the "hardcore" BICE share this similarity.
Then in March, the dominant Conservative government in the UK (100% popularity? Really?) chose Winston Churchill, the ‘British Bulldog’ as Prime Minister.
The big doctrinal difference between the two in my understanding (and despite possible popular conceptions, I'm not a scholar of Marxism–Leninism) is between Stalin's 'socialism in one country' model, whereby the prospect of world revolution was deemed unlikely and so the Soviet Union would have to survive on its own as an exemplar 'communist state', and Trotsky's theory of 'permanent revolution', which is much more focused on instigating the world revolution instead of sitting back and waiting for it or dismissing it outright. So Trotsky is probably worse for Poland in terms of who to have on your border – unless Poland happens to want to go Red, in which case his re-appearance is ideal.
In terms of what a Trotskyite SU might look like internally… it's hard to say, except I would expect less of a 'siege mentality' and potentially less of a paranoid ruling class (but this is debatable; Trotsky was his own kind of wacko). Any real difference will probably become appreciable when/if the SU takes over bits of Eastern Europe. Then it will be a question of what relationship Moscow establishes with its new clients/allies (ie potentially less asset stripping, more sincere attempts to keep an international communist bloc/economy afloat).
But this is all fairly vague conjecture. I'd be interested to know what Trotsky's focus tree has him doing in-game.
I would expect Trotsky to at least talk the flamboyant expansionist dictator talk, but his actual ability to walk the walk will be hampered by the tumult and chaos of transition and power struggles. Basically, a threat to Poland is even more certain but also likely to be delayed until the world situation is much less favorable for the Soviets.
True to an extent, but Stalin had the patience and political skills/senses that Trotsky lacked, that is after all why he won the OTL power struggle. My default assumption is that Trotsky will over-reach, annoy too many internal factions and end up being couped or 'retired' by the Politburo. Of course HOI4 won't model that in any meaningful way, but it's probably what would have happened.
True to an extent, but Stalin had the patience and political skills/senses that Trotsky lacked, that is after all why he won the OTL power struggle. My default assumption is that Trotsky will over-reach, annoy too many internal factions and end up being couped or 'retired' by the Politburo. Of course HOI4 won't model that in any meaningful way, but it's probably what would have happened.
Well yeah, but having played the game, I have ascended to a higher level of being and now can skip straight to the last step of ignoring reality and going with the game.
I dunno, just throwing out gangster movies because the last only one I ever saw (properly) was The Departed and that's more Irish than anything. I don't think you can call Smokin' Aces a gangster movie, despite the topic. Beyond that... Dick Tracy? Does that count even?
I dunno, just throwing out gangster movies because the last only one I ever saw (properly) was The Departed and that's more Irish than anything. I don't think you can call Smokin' Aces a gangster movie, despite the topic. Beyond that... Dick Tracy? Does that count even?
Oh...that's not good. At least with stalin you would have years to prep as he establishes control over the red army. Now? Trotsky is an internationalist, with an experienced and loyal army. Better hope that war lasts a while or you are screwed.
Mayhap, though in-game I have no idea whether (or how) it may be worse. I'll just have to see what the Trots come up with! My best bet I'm thinking is they decide to point themselves in another direction. Like the old saw that if someone yells 'shark' at the beach, you should be OK even if you're only the second slowest swimmer!
Huh. That is quite out of character for the astonishingly far right and Conservative military. Maybe they've had an internal rethink and moved ever so slightly towards liberal democracy? That sounds very unlikely though. Probably more that in practice, they've realised they can't maintain power for long and need a civilian government again.
I don't know what that focus branch looks like, but you'd think angling for a Constitutional Monarchy with a democratic government might be in character for that divergence, but ... who knows? I don't!
Eh...in game its a random 50/50 chance event so doesn't impact too much aside from a opinion slider...the UK can still do anything from total decolonisation *including Northern Ireland* to imperial federation. India does have a veto for their membership though...
Honestly, this is good news, at least in universe if not game wise. Trotsky was interventionist in the extreme. Give a communist rebellion any staying power and they'll be not only funded but supported by war declarations. Its Honestly good for everyone that the Republicans are losing this time in Spain, otherwise there'd be a world war over that.
Wow...huh. OK. Definitely a paradigm shift in the military. Very, very good news to have a democracy at your back. But remember that, if not in game but in universe, this is still the German riech, they want your land, have not agreed to that border, and are fantastically militaristic within army circles. Be very wary.
We'll be careful, but if you had the choice as Poland between this outcome and Herr Hitler, well ... pretty happy for now and hoping things don't degenerate in the future.
World seems to look more like Cold War than World War. Democrats vs Internationalists. There are some Fascists and Nationalists, but would they be enough of a threat? Or maybe they would get otl Soviet treatment in the search of new allies by "Allies"
It's really interesting to see Trotsky instead of Stalin in theory it should heavily affect Soviet politics as Trotskist's ideologists push for world revolution and Stalin was more of a dictator, opportunist and cynic. For him ideology was only mean of power and legitimizing force. He proved it otl, when as a communist leader he called "russian nation" during "Operation Barbarossa"
An astute observation, I think. I was (like others have mentioned below in some detail) expecting Trotsky's Permanent Revolution dogma to have such an effect on Soviet policy, but am blithely unaware of how that may manifest in their focus choices under this branch.
If nothing else the HOI4 Civil Wars are quick and efficient. Famously the SCW takes years, yet completely overthrowing an entrenched and well supported dictator like Hitler or Stalin apparently takes a couple of months.
It's a British Carden-Lloyd tankette with a French machine gun and a US Ford A engine. This does not scream 'indigenous design' to me, but then I suppose Poland had to say it was in order to justify not paying the licence fees for all those items.
A Trotskyite Soviet Union does seem a much bigger threat than the Stalinist flavour, so while an alliance with Britain is all well and good it may be time to speak to Adenaur's Germany and see if they are interested in holding the line against the Communist hordes?
I think they should be. Trotsky absolutely was a global revolution, fight the world type and proudly boasted of it. So surely better for the Germans (and indeed the French and the rest of Europe) to have that fight early and on someone else's territory, like say Poland, than wait until the bear is at the door.
This timeline continues to astound and confound expectations. I've always wanted to see a Trotskyist game, so will be fascinated to see how that plays out – even if as others have said it's bad news for Poland. Churchill is at least a more dependable Allied leader than other British alternatives, but what practical use he could offer at this point I'm not certain. Need a few more chips to fall into place among the democracies to see how valuable the bloc will be, I think – starting with the Germans. Their 'democracy' in material fact is going to be a very concerning beast still…
I do like the added uncertainty of a game I don't know very well plus divergent ahistorical foci. Having Germany join the Allies would be delicious, you'd think, and could only be a boon for Poland. Who they might start considering rather right-wing by comparison.
As others said above, this is one of those wonderfully schematic bits of HOI4 game design that just means everyone is a true-blue democrat. But then I could well believe that everyone was a true-blue Tory also. (Particularly if Ernest Bevin decides to show up again… He was as Blue Labour as they come! Does anyone know if he's around in HOI4?)
I'll also be interested to see/find out how (if at all) the HOI4 political system manages changes of government between democratic parties. It's not as obviously clear where electoral sympathies may lie as it is in HOI3 - for what good it does!
I did a democratic Germany game once and the focus there ultimately headed towards forming a monolithic 'European Union' bloc. So handily playing into any and all stereotypes about reichs and supranational organisations and what have you…
I'm curious, @Bullfilter – can Poland still form the Intermarium? Suppose it's too late if you're an Allied nation, but it's a wacky left-field option that could be fun to reconsider if the Allies end up being useless.
No, I'm pretty sure I checked and that path is now closed, due (iirc) to the choice of the Allied path. Someone with more experience of the game than me would have to say whether that is final, or whether any subsequent developments can reverse that. My working assumption is 'no'.
Remains to be seen if hostilities ever get general enough to be described as a 'world war', with the Germany and Japan catalysts going different, non-fascist ways. And if there is one, whether it's over Poland ... or just through it.
No Hitler, Root for Joey Boy to get his just desserts. Stalin lost, Musso better have a heavy hand or there is not a major villain to boo. Will Trotsky invade Poland? Will Germany join the allies against Mussolini/Trotsky? These and other tall tales will be answered by our teller of tall tales.
It's looking like Musso may indeed try his hand, but whether it will be heavy enough is another matter. He would make a good villain, even if it's a pantomime one! Germany joining the Allies would be sweet indeed - and free up half our army from the need to look west, for the foreseeable future.
A good question that others will have to answer (as some have had a go at), especially in terms of game mechanics, of which in this case I'm blissfully ignorant.
The big doctrinal difference between the two in my understanding (and despite possible popular conceptions, I'm not a scholar of Marxism–Leninism) is between Stalin's 'socialism in one country' model, whereby the prospect of world revolution was deemed unlikely and so the Soviet Union would have to survive on its own as an exemplar 'communist state', and Trotsky's theory of 'permanent revolution', which is much more focused on instigating the world revolution instead of sitting back and waiting for it or dismissing it outright. So Trotsky is probably worse for Poland in terms of who to have on your border – unless Poland happens to want to go Red, in which case his re-appearance is ideal.
In terms of what a Trotskyite SU might look like internally… it's hard to say, except I would expect less of a 'siege mentality' and potentially less of a paranoid ruling class (but this is debatable; Trotsky was his own kind of wacko). Any real difference will probably become appreciable when/if the SU takes over bits of Eastern Europe. Then it will be a question of what relationship Moscow establishes with its new clients/allies (ie potentially less asset stripping, more sincere attempts to keep an international communist bloc/economy afloat).
Indeed. Hypothetical in-game for now, but the webs will likely get more tangled as it develops (and the strategic situation goes all chaotic) meaning we could get one of those surprise roping-in accidents down the track, with the USR suddenly beating down the door because of some obscure war in the Balkans, Asia, etc.
In broad policy terms, basically what stalin was doing, only the army is already loyal to him, because stalin nicked most of trotsky's economic plans. What would differ is that stalin wasn't as much of an interventionist (or rather, he'd intervene if it were good for Russia, not really because he was trying to ferment revolution everywhere) whereas trotsky would be funding every proper communist side in as many countries as possible.
You'd think he would go all International. Curious to see if/how the game approaches it. I'll have to keep an eye out for any publicly visible focus/national theme icons that may appear for the USR as things go on, in case they give a hint (like they did with Germany and its democratic trajectory).
It's why it's good news the nazis are already dead, because trotsky is probably going to prove some of their paranoia right in that there actually is a red menace coming for everyone. Now, theoretically, a unifed democratic europe can safely build an anti Soviet bloc without making the far right look so appealing.
True to an extent, but Stalin had the patience and political skills/senses that Trotsky lacked, that is after all why he won the OTL power struggle. My default assumption is that Trotsky will over-reach, annoy too many internal factions and end up being couped or 'retired' by the Politburo. Of course HOI4 won't model that in any meaningful way, but it's probably what would have happened.
Yes, Trotsky was far more, ah, 'mercurial' is the polite way of putting it. Whereas Stalin got his power by being a patient, dour and ruthless administrator and back-room dealer. Both have their positives and negatives (as traits or opponents).
It would make an interesting scenario for an espionage focused work. Trotsky would put far more effort into disrupting elections, and be a far more worrisome 'red menace' than Stalin, so assuming the military side ends up with a European Alliance staring at the Soviets from the Polish border, the conflict would move to the diplomatic/espionage level. At least until Trotsky implodes the economy and get booted out.
Usually I would consider this to seal China's fate as a nominal United Front is needed to hold back Japan, but Japan in this ATL has gone Red so who knows if Marco Polo or similar is even on the table anymore.
I guess this is the aggressive version of the 'United Front', perhaps enabled by the removal of Imperial Japan from the equation (only guessing, as I have no familiarity with the respective event tress and triggers). Unite them by conquering them. But how will China fare in this adventure? Many a twist and turn likely there, methinks.
Yes, but given it seems Poland may actually have a future counted in more than months here, we'd better start looking to it. I hadn't bothered beforehand on the opening assumption we wouldn't have had time to develop such before being squashed, bug like, between the two traditional juggernauts. Recent developments have allowed some hubris to develop, so we'll make the effort.
Looking at this and being generally unfamiliar with HoI4 in detail, I notice with some amusement that the focus tree concept is rather similar to the BICE mod, in that both are driven by a bunch of decision trees that place buildings or spawn units instead of using your intrinsic resources to produce them (which I never liked as a mechanic in BICE either). The difference here of course is that you can actually see the entire decision tree to plot your strategy, whereas with BICE you just have to memorize everything while playing and failing a few dozen times for lack of encyclopedic knowledge. Otherwise I am amused that the "casual" HoI4 and the "hardcore" BICE share this similarity.
An interesting comparison, between to games/mods I'm equally ignorant of! In this one, it seems easy enough to follow through because, as you say, it is set out clearly in the focus tree. Also, I saw something similar applied in the @The Living Hive's excellent Yugoslavian AAR.
I would expect Trotsky to at least talk the flamboyant expansionist dictator talk, but his actual ability to walk the walk will be hampered by the tumult and chaos of transition and power struggles. Basically, a threat to Poland is even more certain but also likely to be delayed until the world situation is much less favorable for the Soviets.
I dunno, just throwing out gangster movies because the last only one I ever saw (properly) was The Departed and that's more Irish than anything. I don't think you can call Smokin' Aces a gangster movie, despite the topic. Beyond that... Dick Tracy? Does that count even?
Ah, one of those iconic and memorable lines! An amusingly ghastly movie, from my distant recollection.
To All: thanks for all the great comments and discussion. And extra special thanks to @RustyHunter for giving the AAR a boost along in the Weekly Showcase Award. <3
Just two chapters in and it looks like we're having a rip-roaring run. And also, two short chapters and we're already up to late 1938! Yah boo sucks to all the gainsayers! Of course, the time-scale will inevitably have to slow down a little as events (and Poland's involvement in them) intensify, but the chapter length won't lengthen accordingly. I've set an ironclad page length that I'm determined not to abuse when that pace of events begins to increase.
The world got more dangerous in July 1937, when China descended into war. Nationalist China progressively declared war on its neighbouring Chinese warlord statelets between 18 July to 23 August. They then received support from Yunnan on 13 September. By the 15th, battles raged along China’s borders with Xibei San Ma, Shanxi and the Guangxi Clique.
Do I detect a cunning plan by Yunnan to secure a few more months of continued existence by allying themselves with Nationalist China? Or perhaps they just haven't read the script? It does appear obvious that they're next on Chiang's hit list...
I have seen the whole world war turned on its head just because a crazy Mexican regime decided to start a war in Central America, so this 'non-aligned' victory may be the best thing for everybody's sanity.
At home, the Polish Government hired the tank designers PZinż on 26 November and began the development of the first new indigenous light tank design, the TKS. This was the beginning of the planned development of a core of armoured and motorised divisions to eventually form a mechanised manoeuvre force.
Taking all this raised world tension into account, Poland took the decisive step on 15 August 1938 to begin formal affiliation with the UK-led Allies, following on from its successful alignment to the West.
As others have said, there is a question how much material assistance the British would realistically be able to provide, given Poland's geography. At least it doesn't look like they're about to turn fascist or communist!
Churchill would not have liked the latest expression of Indian independence sentiment that came at the end of June 1938. How long would he be able to keep a lid on potential discontent?
Trotsky triumphed in the Soviet Civil War on 8 April 1938. It was unclear to the Poles what the consequences of this may be for them: would Trotsky try to eventually initiate a continuous and world-wide revolution?
There was never going to be a good outcome here for Poland, but one could easily imagine Trotsky presenting a more acute threat than Stalin. Definitely time to look to you eastern defences!
Barely a month later, wonderful news came from Germany. Democracy had triumphed, with Konrad Adenauer’s Zentrum Party having won the first elections in September 1938.
This seems like the most benign development you could hope for. Without knowing the focus trees, I could imagine Germany either joining the Allies or trying to forge a new democratic faction in Europe. The question is what will Adenauer do? Hopefully he's not hard-wired to invade Poland...
Another great update and some very intriguing events. I skimmed the comments but I'm sure it has been mentioned - a Trotsky Soviet Union is perhaps a larger threat than Stalin's Soviet Union. But I did note that Stalin is not gone - just away. It will be curious to see if there is a round two of their grudge match.
Do I detect a cunning plan by Yunnan to secure a few more months of continued existence by allying themselves with Nationalist China? Or perhaps they just haven't read the script? It does appear obvious that they're next on Chiang's hit list...
I have seen the whole world war turned on its head just because a crazy Mexican regime decided to start a war in Central America, so this 'non-aligned' victory may be the best thing for everybody's sanity.
We shall see, in due course. Though at that point, I was just guessing. And at least wanted the capacity to develop them, even if the generation of the capability may take longer. Also, I didn’t want to start building tanks until at least the first new generation of them was available. At this point, by guesswork, I was figuring that if it eventually came to war with Russia I’d be in some trouble if all I had was leg infantry and a few cavalry divisions!
As others have said, there is a question how much material assistance the British would realistically be able to provide, given Poland's geography. At least it doesn't look like they're about to turn fascist or communist!
Yes, the British is one thing, but the value of Allied membership also depends on who may join them in the future. By this time, I was banking on more that the British, albeit they were now under the more active Churchill. You will see how much more active he becomes in the nearish future.
There was never going to be a good outcome here for Poland, but one could easily imagine Trotsky presenting a more acute threat than Stalin. Definitely time to look to you eastern defences!
I’m not sure how much the civil war knocks around the Soviets in terms of casualties, damage and undermined stability, whether he can retain stable power, whether Stalin can return or what Trotsky may do about Poland and the West. But I figured being in the Allies may either be a deterrent or, if not, at least provide some assistance. We shall see.
This seems like the most benign development you could hope for. Without knowing the focus trees, I could imagine Germany either joining the Allies or trying to forge a new democratic faction in Europe. The question is what will Adenauer do? Hopefully he's not hard-wired to invade Poland...
Another great update and some very intriguing events. I skimmed the comments but I'm sure it has been mentioned - a Trotsky Soviet Union is perhaps a larger threat than Stalin's Soviet Union. But I did note that Stalin is not gone - just away. It will be curious to see if there is a round two of their grudge match.
Thank you! Whether the threat of Trotsky is more likely or more/less effective is a complete mystery to me. Which is kinda fun both in-game and in an AAR sense. The news report did not mention Stalin’s death, as it had Hitler’s in his loss to the Military Junta, and like you I don’t know whether a comeback is possible, which I’m also intrigued by and am happy to find out if the game gives any indication.
To All: I’m turning back to this AAR next and will try to get an update out before I head off for a short trip this weekend. We shall see. Thanks for the many quality comments, one and all.
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Chapter Three – A Series of Unfortunate Events (October 1938 – May 1939)
Chapter Three – A Series of Unfortunate Events (October 1938 – May 1939)
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Steady as She Goes (October 1938 – February 1939)
As the level of tension in the world actually decreased a little during September 1938 (down from 45%), in early October the Polish Foreign Office began to worry that the window might shut on Poland’s bid to formally join the Allies. With just 22 days to go until a decision, there were concerns that Churchill may not approve the request.
In OTL, tensions were high and the Czechs had been abandoned in Munich. Within the region originally demanded from Czechoslovakia by Nazi Germany following the Munich Agreement was the important railway junction city of Bohumín. The Poles regarded the city as of crucial importance to the area and to Polish interests. On 28 September, Beneš composed a note to the Polish administration offering to reopen the debate surrounding the territorial demarcation in Těšínsko (Český Těšín) in the interest of mutual relations, but he delayed in sending it in hopes of good news from London and Paris, which failed to come.
Beneš then turned to the Soviet leadership in Moscow, which had begun a partial mobilisation in eastern Belarus and Ukraine and threatened Poland with the dissolution of the Soviet-Polish non-aggression pact. At noon on 30 September, Poland gave an ultimatum to the Czechoslovak government that demanded the immediate evacuation of Czechoslovak troops and police and gave Prague until noon the following day. At 11:45 a.m. on 1 October the Czechoslovak foreign ministry called the Polish ambassador in Prague and told him that Poland could have what it wanted.
Polish Army entering Český Těšín (Czeski Cieszyn), 1 October 1938, with 7TPs leading the push.
With the new 7TP light tank research finished on 20 October, production began after some small improvements were made to its armour and main gun, with the model becoming known as the Mark 1 variant.
The fears of the Foreign Office proved unfounded, as the request to join the Allies was delivered to the UK on 24 October 1938. That done and while a decision was awaited, moves were then made to deliver the long-mooted Lithuanian Ultimatum, which would hopefully end long-running border disputes and improve relations between the two countries.
The British response was quick: Poland formally joined the Allies that evening.
Polish crowds celebrate the new alliance with Britain, 24 October 1938.
The next day, the Polish Ambassador in London was given a comprehensive report on current British military and industrial strength and a map showing dispositions in Britain itself.
Estimates of German and Soviet strengths were also assessed.
Parliamentary elections were held in Poland on 6 November 1938, with Senate elections held a week later on 13 November. They were the last elections in the Second Polish Republic. This election was held under the April Constitution of 1935, which was written to favour the Sanation movement.
The Camp of National Unity, the party of the Sanation movement, won 164 of the 208 seats in the Sejm and 66 of the 96 seats in the Senate. Although multiple parties ran, all of them were controlled by the Camp of National Unity and the number of votes they received were chosen by the government beforehand.
Polish Independence Day was again celebrated on 11 November in an atmosphere of pride and some hope.
In Asia, the Communist Chinese formed the Mutual Assistance Bloc, formalising their common front against the Nationalist Chinese with many of the warlord states involved in the fight..
A few days later, this war remained finely balanced, according to reports from the East, though Xibei San Ma was in some trouble.
The Lithuanians duly accepted Poland’s peace overtures on 30 November, bringing a thaw to relations, which Poland sought to build on further.
Over an otherwise quiet and (for Poland) uneventful winter, the relationship with Lithuania progressed from friendship to the proposal of a formal alliance on 6 February 1939.
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Stumbling Into War (February – March 1939)
The first inklings of trouble closer to home in Europe had come back on 1 December 1937, when Mussolini announced claims on what he considered to be Italian-speaking areas rightfully belonging to Italy. That all dated back to their feeling of having been cheated out of their just claims by their ‘Allies’ following the Great War. The demands had since largely been forgotten in the wider world. Not so in Italy.
The issue came to a sudden and dramatica head on 21 February 1939, when as a seeming bolt out of the blue Italy declared war on Yugoslavia. In an eery parallel to the Great War, it fell to Belgrade to be the capital that had refused to bow to an ultimatum and then found itself attacked, even if the delay was longer this time. This Italian attack immediately escalated the conflict, with France honouring its guarantee to defend Yugoslavia. On paper (and only imprecise reports at that in these early stages) the Italians appeared heavily outnumbered.
Almost ignored now in the background, the Spanish Civil War just ground on.
What could only be described as a period of ‘March Madness’ began when Britain lit the fuse in the Middle East. They took a dislike to the ruling Hashemite regime in Iraq and declared war on 2 March, with the aim of making Iraq a British puppet.
Churchill began calling in all his Allies, which now included Poland, of course, to join the war. And in they came. Poland, for one, did not want to endanger future reciprocal support. And apart from that, it looked an easy and (importantly) distant fight. Onwards!
But the situation soon escalated. Somehow, Iran became involved on 6 March, Churchill apparently taking offence at something they had said or done. And then, for reasons not immediately clear in Poland, the Netherlands was suddenly dragged into the conflict on the 7th, with the puppeting of Curacao now added to that of Iraq and Iran as British war goals!
France then joined the Allies on 10 March, with a call to arms from them issued to all the Allies the following day. Yugoslavia then joined the Allies on the 12th. Poland joined this stumbling rush to war, not wanting to appear a weak-kneed fellow-traveller within the alliance. So now found itself at war with Italy, but with Britain and France as major allies.
By 19 March, two somewhat confusingly separately defined but overlapping wars were going on side by side. The main upshot though remained the Allies against Italy with Iraq, Iran and the Netherlands as side-theatres. The Allies retained the upper hand in total military strength and industrial power.
In China, the conflict remained evenly poised in terms of casualties and progress, though China and Yunnan retained a considerable advantage in estimated troop numbers against the Mutual Assistance Bloc, though not numbers of divisions or total industrial capacity.
By that time, the USR had apparently founded their own faction, the 4th International, but no detailed reports on it were handy and at that time it was unknown who else, if anyone, was a member: it seemed nobody was yet.
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War Abroad, Peace at Home (1 April – 4 May 1939)
Although war had spread around much of the world by April 1939, it seemed to be contained in separate compartments and was not considered to be a global war as yet. No one was using the terms ‘a new Great War’ or ‘Second World War’ at this stage. Indeed, the Netherlands capitulated on 2 April after just a few weeks of resistance when British landings in Holland made quick progress.
Churchill was proving to be more of a ‘global bully’ than even Mussolini! Still, Poland was along for the ride now and at least seemed to have backed a winner. But not to be outdone, Mussolini responded with an ultimatum to Albania on 7 April demanding annexation, which King Zog gallantly refused.
This triggered a new round of escalation after Italy declared war on the morning of the 7th. Germany fulfilled a pledge to come to the aid of the brave Albanians and quickly joined the Allies, as did Albania. Germany then honoured France’s call to arms and now they too were participants in the wider French (Allied)-Italian War!
At this stage, Poland was trying to produce all the various equipment it needed to sustain its growing army and the trade resources necessary to sustain their military factories. And things seemed largely on track.
A Polish 7TP Mk1 tank during trials in April 1939.
At this time, Poland’s national focus was firmly set on implementing its comprehensive Plan East, with the latest stage completed on 17 April.
Late on the following day, with Germany now officially Polish allies, most of the 1st Army began to redeploy to the eastern border with the USR. Purely as a precaution, for now.
Polish 1st Army troops on the ‘Great March East’, April 1939.
In the confusing mess that was Chinese politics, a new pact emerged on 4 May 1939, called the Asian League, to oppose the Nationalist Chinese.
It was somewhat unclear, but it seemed Kwantung had roped in or perhaps organised pro-Fascist coups in a number of the Chinese warlord states including Sinkiang, China's former ally Yunnan, Guangxi and Xibei San Ma, in addition to their pre-existing fascist friends Mengukuo.
The Mutual Assistance Bloc remained, but now only saw Shanxi linked up with the Communist Chinese. It all served to isolate China further, who were now embroiled in heavy fighting both to the north and south.
Mussolini got punished hard.
It's nice to see Iran joining this proto "axis" as irl Iran was profascist and there were some concerns he may join the War endangering colonies in Middle East.
But Netherlands what was their reason to join Italy? I can't see any
Churchill making some absolutely deranged decisions here – but then what more would one expect of HOI4? Or, indeed, of Winston Churchill…
I like the idea that Winnie spent so long arguing for rearmament and against appeasement over the last few years that when the chief object of his warnings 'disappears' (or changes its spokesperson at least) he just sort of short circuits and decides there must be war anyway. Being incredibly generous, I might say that the Iraqi gambit has something to do with opposing the Italians in the Middle East… but it's probably something much grubbier and resource-related. The Netherlands debacle remains a total mystery… Poland looks like it may have just hitched its wagon to the world's most truculent warmonger!
Who would have guessed that Poland itself would be looking like an oasis of calm by the end of the 1930's? Trotsky seems to have gone quiet for now; I can't imagine who would join the Fourth International of their own will, though, so surely it's only a matter of time before he clicks into permanent revolution mode.
Churchill making some absolutely deranged decisions here – but then what more would one expect of HOI4? Or, indeed, of Winston Churchill…
I like the idea that Winnie spent so long arguing for rearmament and against appeasement over the last few years that when the chief object of his warnings 'disappears' (or changes its spokesperson at least) he just sort of short circuits and decides there must be war anyway. Being incredibly generous, I might say that the Iraqi gambit has something to do with opposing the Italians in the Middle East… but it's probably something much grubbier and resource-related. The Netherlands debacle remains a total mystery… Poland looks like it may have just hitched its wagon to the world's most truculent warmonger!
Who would have guessed that Poland itself would be looking like an oasis of calm by the end of the 1930's? Trotsky seems to have gone quiet for now; I can't imagine who would join the Fourth International of their own will, though, so surely it's only a matter of time before he clicks into permanent revolution mode.
Who would have thought Poland siding with the allies could be de facto aggressors in this world.
It's incredibly interesting, because "allies" looks like alliance of imperialists and pannationalists, mussolinists (not all are fascists and they don't have faction yet) looks like nationalistic defenders of freedom [besides the little irrendentist claim in Yugoslavia] and Internationalists i.e. trotskists idea of fighting with imperialism do actually have some merit here.
From the political standpoint this word is incredibly interesting
Sad that Hearts of Iron is first the war game and not a political one
Hope Poland siding with "allies" didn't in fact sided with aggressors...
Germany didn't join "allies" yet (iirc) and historically we shouldn't forget that Churchill was one of the important supporter of Edward VIII, who, in his younger years, had some imperial and nazi sympathies himself
Edit: Wait Germany joined Allies as well as Albania. This world is more complicated than I thoight xd
and historically we shouldn't forget that Churchill was one of the important supporter of Edward VIII, who, in his younger years, had some imperial and nazi sympathies himself
I wasn’t going to bring it up so as not to risk sounding like a broken record, but it goes even further than that. Infamously, Churchill himself was a strong admirer of Mussolini’s. The fact that Britain and Italy are at war and not, say, Britain and Germany (who with or without the Nazis still prove a notional threat to the European ‘balance of power’) is for my money one of the zaniest things about this world.
I wasn’t going to bring it up so as not to risk sounding like a broken record, but it goes even further than that. Infamously, Churchill himself was a strong admirer of Mussolini’s. The fact that Britain and Italy are at war and not, say, Britain and Germany (who with or without the Nazis still prove a notional threat to the European ‘balance of power’) is for my money one of the zaniest things about this world.
I've read a little bit about Churchill he was actually one of the firm believers of communism being the creation of international jewish community...
and we have internationalist jewish leader in Russia everything align for Churchill to become villain of this world :O
I mean Adolf Hitler was also elected democratically...
P.S.: There are some rumours Churchill attempted Mussolini assination in later years of his life
