Poles Apart – an HOI4 Ahistory

[TheButterflyComposer]

Looks like UK wants their 13(+) colonies back :O
Polish spies should probably know that, but they better pray UK don't attack US causing Americans to join Maoists or Fascists.
Italian minority is quite huge in US so it may push US for that, we'll see...
What's more there are no guarantees, that USR won't join together with US wanting to get something in Poland, Asia or maybe "liberate" some colonies.
Imperialist Churchil can't stop surprising me xd

The UK can definitely take the US in HOI4, esepcially if they aren't fighting anywhere else.

I suspect if they want to, they will try.

 

[Bullfilter]

Next chapter incoming soon. Feedback on comments for the last follows:

Looks like the army in Iran could go to China soon enough. The war in Europe is bascially over and just a walk through Africa now, so those armies and airforce will be coming over too. Not too worried about Asia on land. Moreso the island losses, which will be much harder for rhe AI to get back...

I thought that earlier, when they were defeated the first time, but they seemed to revolt all over again quite powerfully. Taking time for the Allies to grind them down again ... as things slowly wither and die in the Far East. And beating Italian North Africa is taking its sweet time too - mainly because Poland seems to have as many divisions committed there as the rest of the Allies do combined!

The deficit in trucks (and indeed in convoys) doesn't look too bad at this point. I would hope Poland's factories and shipyards might be able to remedy that over the course of a few months?

Seems to be manageable and I have some time to remedy the supply motorisation deficit ... given that was for only one of the four Polish armies. More will follow, now I'm aware of the potential demand.

It's good to see the AI providing its own supply, and that makes the French unit more of an asset rather than a liability.

Yes, and they even keep sending the odd division!

The desert war looks tough and set to run for quite some time, and I suspect you are losing quite a lot of men and equipment to attrition now? However, I am considerably reassured the Rats will be able to continue to hold out now that they've succeeded in beating off that strong Italian push. Mussolini can't have very many divisions remaining and is surely going to be hard pressed keeping them supplied and reinforced with whatever industry he still has in Africa.

I think so. Yes, attrition bites harder than the Italians at the moment, though its OK in Oran. Bigger problem in Libya. There will be an intel report on Italy in the coming chapter, as we try to assess their capacity for long-term resistance.

You now need over 500 convoys? That, surely, is a big, big problem?

I only actually need 2 for supply purposes and not many for trade (I try to do that with continental powers when I can). That bill would be to achieve 100% on all the lend-lease offers I just automatically hit accept for. About 400 of them would be for the big US LL offer. I'll just keep building convoys to up the % of what I can get through LL.

Their resistance has been tenacious, but those divisions are all but destroyed. I'm afraid there's no hope for them now.

The only hope is to hold out as long as possible for a glorious death. A Japanese Communist POW camp in China is unlikely to be an inviting prospect!

Yet another drain on the strength of the Allied powers...

Yes, though also on the Japanese, as they remain heavily engaged in China. Sound familiar?

Yes, that looks very bad indeed. A lot more Allied divisions are going to be destroyed. Can you remind me whether the Communist and Fascist blocs are currently at war with each other or not?

The Fascists and Communists remain at peace with each other, both at war with the Allies due to their mutual conflict against Nationalist China and the latter's joining of the Allies.

No, Prime Minister! Seriously, no, don't do it!

Part of me agrees - such folly. But the other part yearns for the madness and chaos!

The Rats of Oran will make their mark on history, I am sure of it.

Glory to Poland!

With this change, how many trucks are you producing per day to cover the deficit?

Around 4 per day at that point, increasing as efficiency improves. And then whatever we can get from lend-lease.

An interesting note about the AI: you can kind of force it to send you equipment through lend-lease by purposely having a deficit. So you could, theoretically, train many one-width divisions, have the AI give you infantry equipment through a lease, then delete the divisions to get the equipment back.

I don't think Poland needs to do this, but the option is there should you need it against a certain hibernating bear.

Interesting. Though I think I'll just develop divisions as I need them and not look for anyb specific game exploits. The poor old AI has a hard enough time coping anyway.

Maybe the AI thinks it can coup Germany? I think that's what the improve relations means?

Not sure about that (don't know the game well enough). Unless they just wanna be friends. The Poles don't like it, however, just on general principles.

Seems like everything's going well for Poland. Every day the war is fought somewhere that isn't Poland is a good day.

For now it does. And yes every day there's peace on the eastern border is a good one, irrespective of what happens elsehwere!

Since the US isn't in the UK's faction, this wargoal could be used at any time. Maximum chaos incoming!

Warning, warning! Bring it on, baby!

Lend-Lease from Moose (Canada), Wild Turkeys (US), Kiwis (New Zealand), Boars (South Africa), Magpies (Germany) and Mermen (Netherlands); but where is the mighty Wombats? WC to staff "Go Big or be retired by the voters. Let us retake Southern Canada." Thank you for updating.

Nothing from the Land of Oz yet. I wonder if Greater Canada will become a thing!?

Continued mixed progress in the war, the Med is taking a lot longer than hoped to 'mop up' as the Italians are doing suspiciously well for an Army in exile with zero industrial base to support it.

It's a real grind. They have a small base of industry and men, but it must surely wither and die soon! Surely!

While I feel sure the Rats will hold out, the question is will the Chinese pocket hold out long enough for any useful support to reach the Far East? Maybe not from the Med, but surely Iran/Iraq have to be on the ropes which will free up those troops. If not that thrust up through Sinkiang looks promising so maybe that might relieve a bit of pressure if the League redeploys to meet that threat.

The Rats seem to be fine now and we presume the Italians have probably done their worst there by now. As for the China Pocket, I think it is more of an irritation and diversion. And the Middle East is also proving to be stubborn. I'm not optimistic about the AI's capacity to do much useful to relieve China any time soon. But if that northern pocket is anything to go by, the rest of China should take a while to pacify. Though a capitulation will surely badly strand any Allied divisions caught there.

Looks like UK wants their 13(+) colonies back :O
Polish spies should probably know that, but they better pray UK don't attack US causing Americans to join Maoists or Fascists.
Italian minority is quite huge in US so it may push US for that, we'll see...
What's more there are no guarantees, that USR won't join together with US wanting to get something in Poland, Asia or maybe "liberate" some colonies.
Imperialist Churchil can't stop surprising me xd

US remains a wild card for all sides in this conflict. They could end up doing anything - especially if Churchill decides to attack them.

The UK can definitely take the US in HOI4, esepcially if they aren't fighting anywhere else.

I suspect if they want to, they will try.

Which would prove enjoyably chaotic and in keeping with the general vibe of this war so far.

 

[Bullfilter]

Chapter Fourteen – Soldiering On
(April 1941)

Soldiering on in Oran and elsewhere – the war remains a somewhat ponderous beast in April 1941.

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1-16 April 1941 – North Africa

The month began with a large deficit of trucks remaining, with around 27 being produced each week, plus whatever may come in on the lend-lease flow. Light tanks, infantry equipment and towed artillery were the other larger stockpile deficits.

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In Libya, the westward grind along the coast continued. The Poles reinforced an existing British attack near El Agheila, with victory eventually coming on the morning of the 3rd.

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Meanwhile, around Oran the Rats continued their dogged resistance with another expensive Italian defeat to the east of the town. Many of the Italian divisions were suffering from significant attrition and a few by some supply problems. To the west, the Italians continued their advance into French Morocco.

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Just two hours after that victory, the Italians launched a new attack on Oran itself, a battle which would last until 1400hr the 7th, once more the Italians taking disproportionately heavy casualties. During the battle, the Germans landed an infantry division in Oran, joining the Poles and French armour already in place and putting Heinz Guderian in command.

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A new Italian attack east of Oran lasted for four days from 2-6 April, with even heavier Italian casualties suffered. It was hoped such heavy defeats may deplete what must be quickly diminishing Italian manpower reserves.

On the home front, AT gun development progressed further on 2 April. This was considered important for possible later fighting against the Soviets. Research was switched to an upgrade for Polish field artillery.

​

On 3 April, the China Pocket – of which about half the divisions were German –still resisted strongly.

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Spoiler: OTL Event: Benghazi

On 4 April, The Germans and Italians took Benghazi.

Spoiler: OTL Events: Yugoslavia and Greece

At 1:30 a.m. in Moscow on 6 April, the Soviet Union and the new government of Yugoslavia signed a treaty of friendship and non-aggression. The treaty was backdated to April 5, possibly in anticipation of a German attack and the Russians wanting to avoid any impression that the agreement was signed while Yugoslavia was at war.

The same day, the German-led Battle of Greece began at dawn when the XL Panzer Corps crossed the Greek border. The German-led invasion of Yugoslavia began at 7 a.m. with a Luftwaffe assault.

Things remained comparatively quiet for the Poles for the next few days. By 7 April, the British had advanced further in Libya, while attrition and poor supply had degraded the readiness of most of the Polish divisions. 7 DP was in the best shape, so it was sent forward to assist the British against an Italian counter-attack.

​

East of Oran, another Italian attack was defeated at 2300hr on the 7th (41 Polish, 655 Italian casualties). The dose was repeated at 1600hr on the 11th (20 Polish, 1,060 Italian casualties).

Early on 12 April, a new French division unloaded in Oran (now 1 x GER, 1 x POL and 1 x FRA inf div, plusg a French light tank div in Oran, 2 x POL inf divs to its east). The next Italian probe east of Oran was defeated at 0600hr on 14 April (no Polish, 772 Italian casualties).

Spoiler: OTL Event: Yugoslavia

The Germans captured Belgrade on 12 April.

Spoiler: OTL Event: Soviet-Japanese Neutrality Pact

On 13 April Japan and the Soviet Union signed a five-year Treaty of Neutrality, pledging to remain neutral in the event of one country being attacked by a third party. The pact also saw the Soviet Union recognise du jure Manchukuo for the first time. Of course, in the ATL they are much closer than that now.

Japanese Foreign Minister Matsuoka signing the pact Soviet-Japanese Neutrality Pact on 13 April 1941.​

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By the morning of the 14th, the four Polish divisions of KPA-East had all made it up to the front in Libya, though three remained quite disorganised. 7 DP was sent forward along the coast into a then-unoccupied province on the road to Tripoli.

​

At Oran, another Italian attack to its east was defeated at 1500hr on 15 April (34 Polish, 646 Italian casualties).

On the morning of the 16th 7 DP had occupied its objective, while the British were in a bit of trouble to their south and the three Polish reserve divisions were moving forward again. Tripoli was now beginning to come within operational view.

​

In Morocco, by the night of the 16th the Italians were pressing in on Casablanca as the French tried to counter-attack.

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At the same time, a new Italian attack on Oran itself was repulsed by the Polish-German-French defenders (48 Allied, 798 Italian casualties).

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Mid-Month Summaries

At this time, further a-field the Allies pressed forward in Iran-Iraq.

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The situation in China had become even more difficult for the Allies, while The Pocket still fought on, though with more difficulty.

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The campaign in Borneo was in full swing, with Japan seeming to retain the upper hand but making little more progress if any so far this month.

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17-30 April – North Africa

Spoiler: OTL Event: Yugoslavia

Yugoslavia formally surrendered to the Axis on 17 April.

The OTL Invasion of Yugoslavia, April 1941. ​

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By the end of 18 April, supply in Libya remained difficult, the Allies at the end of a long trail from Cairo.

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Yet another Italian attack east of Oran was heavily defeated at 0600hr on 19 April (31 Polish, 957 Italian casualties). An intel report on the Italian position the following morning estimated they had only 20-25,000 reserves left to service around 20 remaining divisions.

​

This Italian situation was worsened at 0300hr on the 21st when the latest attack on Oran itself was beaten (Allies 11, Italians 848 killed). That night, the Germans launched their own attack west from Oran, while the Italians attacked the Poles again to its east.

​

Spoiler: OTL Event: Greece

King George II of Greece and the Greek government fled to Crete on 23 April while the British-led Allies fought on in Greece.

In Poland, the focus to increase industry in Kraków was completed on the 22nd. A first move was made to finally increase Polish shipbuilding capacity: the intention was to direct the eventual increase in construction into convoy production.

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With the supply situation getting no better in Libya, the Poles decided to push on further on 22 April. Once more, 7 DP led the way by reinforcing a British attack along the coast. A day later, an Anglo-German force was attacking inland. The coastal attack was eventually won at midday on the 28th.

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Late in April, there were three new Polish divisions in training: one ‘standard’ infantry, one light tank and one ‘heavy’ infantry (ie medium tanks attached). Of interest, 48 DP now had a wide array of different infantry equipment types from various lend lease and domestic production programs.

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Early the next day, the recently acquired military factory in Kraków was put into more truck production, which would take a while yet to reach full efficiency.

East of Oran, the Italians had one of their heavier losses at 1800hr on 24 April (62 Polish, 1,390 Italian casualties).

Unfortunately, Germany decided it would not follow through with its lend-lease of Opel trucks, cancelling the arrangement on the 26th.

Spoiler: OTL Events: Greece

German troops marched into Athens on 27 April. Allied resistance ceased on the Greek mainland on the 29th when 8,000 British, New Zealand, Australian, Greek and Yugoslavian troops surrendered at Kalamata.

The OTL German Campaign in Greece, April 1941. ​

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By 28 April, there were five lend-lease programs to Poland still in operation, with various levels of delivery efficiency due to convoy availability (where these were required).

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West of Oran, the German attack continued as the month ended, while the Rats of Oran stayed securely on the defensive.

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To the west, Casablanca had fallen to the Italian offensive in Morocco, while in Libya the Allies slowly closed in on Tripoli.

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Logistics and construction in Poland continued to focus on improving supply and infrastructure on the eastern border. The deficits in trucks and infantry equipment had been considerably reduced. The fulfilment of truck requirements for supply was now up to 90% and there were ample trains with about 19 surplus at present. National stability continued to slowly improve and was now having a small net benefit to manufacturing output.

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Theatre Summaries

Elsewhere in the war Iran and Iraq still resisted, but the Allies were closing in on their last positions.

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The war in Asia continued as with Allied help Nationalist China clung on against its Fascist and Communist assailants. The overall war remained nominally in favour of the Allies, though their total casualties were heavier.

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The China Pocket had now been compressed to a singe province, but the mainly German and Chinese survivors still fought on bravely against Russian-commanded Communist attackers.

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On the main Chinese front, the situation remained as difficult – or more so – than ever, as pockets formed in the south-east sectors.

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The French continued to do it tough in Indo-China, but the Allies seemed to have regained some ground in Borneo since the middle of the month.

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While in Mexico, the Communist-backed rebels were being forced into an ever-decreasing enclave.

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Poland’s overall war contribution was now 6% of the total effort, with casualties (combat and attrition) of about 62,000 and fielding the fifth largest Allied army of 59 divisions.

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The conflict remained spread from Morocco to Borneo but was yet far from a new ‘world war’, with Europe itself at peace after the defeat of Italy in its homeland.

 

[Midnite Duke]

If Gen. Zeligowski is commanding troops in the field, he is having a better PTL than OTL. Prasca is doing a better job in Africa than in Greece. Cherepanov was Russian advisor to Chiang in another time. If Allies continue to push eastward, the Italian capital will soon be in Brooklyn. Thank you for updating

 

[ThaHoward]

I have missed this, I'll try to keep up. Poland is an interesting choice, and alt.-history hoi4 can become very wacky to put it midly

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Italy continues to do a very good job of wasting everyone's time in Africa, Iran however seems to be on the very last legs and will soon be supporting the Indian or Chinese fronts.

Mexico nearly done with a civil war in the allies favor is very good news. They have a surpisngly robust army, if the british can safely get them across the sea into the Pacific (although far more likely they will actually land in Spain or the west coast of Africa, as we saw in Imperial Cheese...which might end the Italian war sooner I guess?).

 

[stnylan]

Oran is turning into the tolling bell for the Italian military remnant.

Other matters in Asia definitely more a mixed back - but China is very far away, I am sure it iwll be no problem

 

[jak7139]

A new Italian attack east of Oran lasted for four days from 2-6 April, with even heavier Italian casualties suffered. It was hoped such heavy defeats may deplete what must be quickly diminishing Italian manpower reserves...(20 Polish, 1,060 Italian casualties)...(34 Polish, 646 Italian casualties)...Plus many, many more.

With all of these Italian attacks, hopefully their manpower will be gone sooner rather than later.

In Morocco, by the night of the 16th the Italians were pressing in on Casablanca as the French tried to counter-attack.

The French would've been better of trying to become the "Rats of Casablanca". Though they probably would've stolen more of the glory from Poland, just like in Rome.

The situation in China had become even more difficult for the Allies with the creation of a neutral Tibetan state,

Wasn't Tibet always there?

Poland’s overall war contribution was now 6% of the total effort, with casualties (combat and attrition) of about 62,000 and fielding the fifth largest Allied army of 59 divisions.

You know things are bad when Poland has almost as big of an army as China.

 

[Bullfilter]

Wasn't Tibet always there?

Oops, you’re right of course, misremembered and then didn’t check! Nice pickup, I will correct that!

 

[El Pip]

A month of war, it feels like in any large scale history book this would be mostly glossed over as 'Fighting continued on all fronts'. Lots of action, but nothing that felt decisive or like an inflection point. Not a criticism of the work by any means, in a gameplay AAR you can only report the action that occurred!

Hopefully the I-lliance of failed powers (Italy, Iraq and Iran) stop wasting everyones time and just surrender so people can get on with the wider war, fingers crossed we see this in the next months update.

 

[Le Jones]

Right, am finally caught up, as ever @Bullfilter you're launching updates quicker than the US launched liberty ships.

A month of war, it feels like in any large scale history book this would be mostly glossed over as 'Fighting continued on all fronts'. Lots of action, but nothing that felt decisive or like an inflection point. Not a criticism of the work by any means, in a gameplay AAR you can only report the action that occurred!

I thought that too, we're definitely deep into the churny, chaotic bit of war. I was actually reminded of our dear author's recent Rome AAR, where the sense of a grinding conflict was vividly conveyed.

Italy continues to do a very good job of wasting everyone's time in Africa

It was ever thus.

Things remained comparatively quiet for the Poles for the next few days. By 7 April, the British had advanced further in Libya, while attrition and poor supply had degraded the readiness of most of the Polish divisions. 7 DP was in the best shape, so it was sent forward to assist the British against an Italian counter-attack.

Logistics and construction in Poland continued to focus on improving supply and infrastructure on the eastern border. The deficits in trucks and infantry equipment had been considerably reduced. The fulfilment of truck requirements for supply was now up to 90% and there were ample trains with about 19 surplus at present. National stability continued to slowly improve and was now having a small net benefit to manufacturing output.

I do think that HOI4 does this rather well, making supply a real concern. Where I am less convinced is how the game responds to player actions in this area...

Poland’s overall war contribution was now 6% of the total effort, with casualties (combat and attrition) of about 62,000 and fielding the fifth largest Allied army of 59 divisions.

Wowzer. I do wonder what you get, assuming victory, in the postwar world...

The conflict remained spread from Morocco to Borneo but was yet far from a new ‘world war’, with Europe itself at peace after the defeat of Italy in its homeland.

It does feel disconnected, lots of localised wars going on with no real sense of a global struggle...

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Wowzer. I do wonder what you get, assuming victory, in the postwar world...

Better question...what would Poland want? All their borders to be recongised...lots of money from all the losers...a union with Lithuania? All of east prussia?

Not the easiest things to get when most of the stuff you want is held by allies.

 

[Bullfilter]

After sinking quite a bit of time into the intricacies of doing a full mod (my HOI3 project) and now having updated my extant CK2 AAR and resuming the Talking Turkey (HOI3) epilogue, it's time to turn once more to Poland in 1941. Thanks so much for all the comments, here is some feedback on them before I venture out to play the next game session ...

If Gen. Zeligowski is commanding troops in the field, he is having a better PTL than OTL. Prasca is doing a better job in Africa than in Greece. Cherepanov was Russian advisor to Chiang in another time. If Allies continue to push eastward, the Italian capital will soon be in Brooklyn. Thank you for updating

He became the commander of these EFs more by accident than anything else. Old guard seems a very appropriate description of him. And given we're now in 1941, pretty much any Polish general will be having a better time that in OTL! Not sure what kind of welcome Musso would get in Brooklyn! There may be a few Sicilian clans there's who would consider him a pezzo novante!

I have missed this, I'll try to keep up. Poland is an interesting choice, and alt.-history hoi4 can become very wacky to put it midly

Thanks so much for finding it and following/commenting. Given Poland survived past 1939, it's already lasting much longer than I thought it would! A big dose of wacky to start with and we'll see if more occurs as we move along.

Italy continues to do a very good job of wasting everyone's time in Africa, Iran however seems to be on the very last legs and will soon be supporting the Indian or Chinese fronts.

Very irritating, but a staunch fight for what is essentially a defeated enemy. Well done AI on this occasion, I think.

Mexico nearly done with a civil war in the allies favor is very good news. They have a surpisngly robust army, if the british can safely get them across the sea into the Pacific (although far more likely they will actually land in Spain or the west coast of Africa, as we saw in Imperial Cheese...which might end the Italian war sooner I guess?).

I think much of it is Allied divisions and EFs, but yes, good news. If the US joins in rogue, or Churchill decides to mattack from Canada, the US could have a nasty war on two fronts.

Oran is turning into the tolling bell for the Italian military remnant.

They're losing a lot of men they can't afford to, especially now we're well dug in and even have a few French and German reinforcements.

Other matters in Asia definitely more a mixed back - but China is very far away, I am sure it iwll be no problem

Only an existential problem for the NatChi and those Allies that have sunk a lot into its defence. One can only hope that eventually the Fascists and Communists will fall upon each other.

With all of these Italian attacks, hopefully their manpower will be gone sooner rather than later.

That's what I'm thinking.

The French would've been better of trying to become the "Rats of Casablanca". Though they probably would've stolen more of the glory from Poland, just like in Rome.

Indeed. Although then it would have been their own glory, rather than perfidiously claiming Polish feats of arms as their own.

You know things are bad when Poland has almost as big of an army as China.

Yes, well both good for us and bad for China. The two lines on the graph are about to intersect.

A month of war, it feels like in any large scale history book this would be mostly glossed over as 'Fighting continued on all fronts'. Lots of action, but nothing that felt decisive or like an inflection point. Not a criticism of the work by any means, in a gameplay AAR you can only report the action that occurred!

Very much so. Plenty happening in China and parts of South East Asia, but the Polish histroians don't care too much about that. Just North Africa and home logistics.

Hopefully the I-lliance of failed powers (Italy, Iraq and Iran) stop wasting everyones time and just surrender so people can get on with the wider war, fingers crossed we see this in the next months update.

Even when they surrender, they seem to live on like one of @stnylan 's vampires or @TheButterflyComposer 's zombies! But yes, they need to be eradicated, then there might even be a remote chance of saving China - though I doubt it.

Right, am finally caught up, as ever @Bullfilter you're launching updates quicker than the US launched liberty ships.

Lovely! You will have noticed then that the rate has slowed down a little as I've sunk more time into the HOI3 mod.

I thought that too, we're definitely deep into the churny, chaotic bit of war. I was actually reminded of our dear author's recent Rome AAR, where the sense of a grinding conflict was vividly conveyed.

Yes, agree. And there were some grim times for Rome in North Africa and Egypt, weren't there? On a far smaller scale here for Poland, where the main effort is actually building and hardening the Homeland for a possible Soviet strike.

It was ever thus.

Yeh.

I do think that HOI4 does this rather well, making supply a real concern. Where I am less convinced is how the game responds to player actions in this area...

Agree with the former, not played it enough yet to comment on the latter, though I'm sure you're right.

Wowzer. I do wonder what you get, assuming victory, in the postwar world...

I really don't know - haven't yet experienced an HOI4 peace conference directly.

It does feel disconnected, lots of localised wars going on with no real sense of a global struggle...

Yes, very much a set of separate regional stoushes vaguely linked by purported factional partnerships. It would take the Soviets joining in somehow to really start making it global. Notwithstanding any US madness that may be in store ...

Better question...what would Poland want? All their borders to be recongised...lots of money from all the losers...a union with Lithuania? All of east prussia?

Not the easiest things to get when most of the stuff you want is held by allies.

Good question. In this game, my role-playing objective has not (so far anyway) been expansionist at all. We are the exemplars of support for collective security and with Lithuania and Germany as allies, no designs there, under current circumstances.

The Czechs could be a possibility if I was that way inclined, but so far I'm not. And I'd always be thinking that an attack on them (if politically possible and militarily desirable) could well provoke the Russians to leap in while the back is turned. Unless they provoke it themselves, it would be rather out of character for ATL Poland here to launch a war of aggression on them. Who knows how it will all turn out though? Another bout of madness could be just around the corner ...

 

[SSmith]

A new Italian attack east of Oran lasted for four days from 2-6 April, with even heavier Italian casualties suffered. It was hoped such heavy defeats may deplete what must be quickly diminishing Italian manpower reserves.

The Italians have got to start running out of something soon, whether that's men or equipment. Surely?

Early on 12 April, a new French division unloaded in Oran (now 1 x GER, 1 x POL and 1 x FRA inf div, plusg a French light tank div in Oran, 2 x POL inf divs to its east). The next Italian probe east of Oran was defeated at 0600hr on 14 April (no Polish, 772 Italian casualties).

The Italians have thrown everything they've got against the Rats, time and again, so I have complete confidence Oran will hold, and with Allied divisions continuing to arrive in support, the Rats will be able to break out and go on the rampage sooner or later.

By the morning of the 14th, the four Polish divisions of KPA-East had all made it up to the front in Libya, though three remained quite disorganised. 7 DP was sent forward along the coast into a then-unoccupied province on the road to Tripoli.

The desert war looks really tough. When I was Italy, even running away was tough, but the British AI didn't appear to be having any supply trouble at all... and that's certainly not the case here for the British and the Poles.

A first move was made to finally increase Polish shipbuilding capacity: the intention was to direct the eventual increase in construction into convoy production.

Yes, Poland certainly needs convoys, but a navy would be a luxury at this point.

To the west, Casablanca had fallen to the Italian offensive in Morocco, while in Libya the Allies slowly closed in on Tripoli.

Surprisingly, the Italians have got several divisions over there as well. If more of their army had been in Italy, they might still have been holding out!

The China Pocket had now been compressed to a singe province, but the mainly German and Chinese survivors still fought on bravely against Russian-commanded Communist attackers.

It feels like the China Pocket has been holding out for months. An epic defence, but sadly doomed.

The conflict remained spread from Morocco to Borneo but was yet far from a new ‘world war’, with Europe itself at peace after the defeat of Italy in its homeland.

Yes, it's very much a handful of local wars spread around the globe, but I would agree, not quite a World War just yet.

 

[Bullfilter]

The Italians have got to start running out of something soon, whether that's men or equipment. Surely?


The Italians have thrown everything they've got against the Rats, time and again, so I have complete confidence Oran will hold, and with Allied divisions continuing to arrive in support, the Rats will be able to break out and go on the rampage sooner or later.

You'd think so - but if anything, despite all the casualties, they seem to have been gaining manpower reserves of late. I've refrained from tagging over to investigate how this is possible. Oran looks like it should hold, but the impending Italian conquest of Morocco might free up a few more units to throw at them. And they remain a long way from the front line in Libya.

The desert war looks really tough. When I was Italy, even running away was tough, but the British AI didn't appear to be having any supply trouble at all... and that's certainly not the case here for the British and the Poles.

It has been, with attrition killing more than combat for the Poles at the moment.

Yes, Poland certainly needs convoys, but a navy would be a luxury at this point.

Agreed. We'll keep going with convoy production but rely on the Allies for naval support for now.

Surprisingly, the Italians have got several divisions over there as well. If more of their army had been in Italy, they might still have been holding out!

Yes, it could be they were surprised by the big Polish intervention and ended up having too many units trapped in Africa. Although it has given them a stronghold to withdraw into and keep Mussolini hammering away.

It feels like the China Pocket has been holding out for months. An epic defence, but sadly doomed.

It has. But the walls are shrinking around them with no immediate hope of rescue.

Yes, it's very much a handful of local wars spread around the globe, but I would agree, not quite a World War just yet.

Until maybe the USR and US jump in, it seems it will remain so for a while yet.

To All: the next chapter is done will soon be up.

 

[Bullfilter]

Chapter Fifteen – Operacja Topór Bitewny
(May-June 1941)

Italian prisoners of war taken in Libya, June 1941.

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1-15 May 1941 – North Africa and the Home Front

While some expansionists in Warsaw agitated for using the idle Polish Army to seize territory – some subject to long-standing Polish claims – from neutral Czechoslovakia, this was against the predominant sentiment of the government. Which also pointed out that a French guarantee of Czech independence could make any such venture problematic and counter to wider Allied – and Polish – strategic interests.

​

So the Polish operational focus remained on North Africa. On 1 May, the German attack west of Oran had succeeded, but the Germans were exposed and would prove unable to retain their temporary gain. At this time, many of the Italian divisions surrounding the Rats of Oran did not have sufficient organisation to sustain offensive operations.

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In Libya, the drive on Tripoli continued with hard fighting: though low on organisation, another Polish attack was put in along the coast later that day, while two more divisions headed inland to widen the axis of the advance.

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With equipment deficits lessening, on 2 May the US announced it was ceasing lend lease shipments, drastically reducing the demand on convoys – though that demand was still more than double the supply.

On the afternoon of the 5th, the two KPA-East divisions that had moved inland were in position to strike the southern flank of the Italians still resisting the coastal attack started in Tripolitania on 1 May (progress up to 88%). By 1500hr 5 and 34 DP had reinforced the fight and the battle was won that night, though all the Polish divisions were now badly disorganised.

​

By midnight on the fifth, it was Imperial Kwantung now attacking the China Pocket, which still had five Chinese and three German divisions resisting as best they could.

The coastal advance in Tripolitania was briefly counter-attacked on 6 May and though the exhausted 2 DP was forced to retreat, their comrades in 7 DP were able to hold the gain.

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Only a few Polish equipment categories remained in deficit by the end of 7 May. Infantry equipment in particular showed an interesting mix of various types that had been provided via lend-lease. Sure enough, on the morning of 8 May Canadian lend-lease was suspended.

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This left the Netherlands, New Zealand and South Africa supply gear (mainly rifles), but that too dried up later that morning. This suddenly left a large temporary surplus on convoys, but production continued as they were likely to be needed again in the future.

With North Africa quiet for the Poles for the next days, the news reports from China saw the Communists having taken up the attack on the Pocket, where only one of the three German divisions remained in the fight.

The news from Morocco was also bad, with one surrounded French division all that was left early on 11 May. They would not last much longer, completing the Italian conquest of French Morocco.

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The Polish focus on fighter defence in the air was advanced on 12 May with the introduction of fighter sweep doctrine.

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Spoiler: OTL Event: Operation Brevity

Rommel’s offensive in Libya had met with remarkable success. On 15 May, the British attempted to counter-attack through Operation Brevity. The effort proved unsuccessful and by 17 May the Afrika Korps had thrown them back, regaining all lost ground by the 27th.

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16-31 May 1941 – Home and Away

With Oran going through a quiet period and the Polish divisions in Libya trying to recover organisation and resupply, a de facto arrangement was formalised, with Japan joining Mao’s MAB. Perhaps Trotsky would be a little miffed they hadn’t opted for the 4th International, but he was not in the war, so Japan went for the local option.

​

Early on the 18th, only the five Chinese divisions still resisted in the Pocket, with the Fascists making the attack again. At home, another economic advance was made as more was done to improve Polish industrial output.

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Spoiler: OTL Event: The Cruise of the Bismarck

The Bismarck left Gdynia (!!) with the Prinz Eugen on 18 May 1941. Its voyage would take it past Norway, Iceland and Greenland to its destruction south-west of Ireland on the 27th. Though sinking the pride of the British fleet, the HMS Hood, along the way.

Then , on 19 May, Trotsky finally got another country to join the 4th International!

​

In Poland, the stockpiled fighters and first Polish TAC wing were deployed in Nowogródek air base.

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On 20 May, the Allies were ready to resume the offensive in Libya. The Poles tried to reinforce a British attack inland but had to break off when their organisation failed. Even so, the British 60th Division still managed to win a close and hard-fought battle by the evening of the 23rd.

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Spoiler: OTL Event: The Battle for Crete

The Germans invaded Crete on 20 May to complete its conquest of Greece and round up many of the Commonwealth forces that had retreated there through paratroop landing. The last of the Allied evacuations from Crete were conducted on the 31st after the withdrawal was ordered on the 26th.

The new ‘standard infantry’ 48 DP deployed in Kowel on 25 May, assigned to the southern-facing 3rd Army, fielding six different types of infantry equipment. And the new wings in Nowogródek began exercising to build up their experience levels.

In interesting news from Africa, the Dutch landed in Algiers but were soon under a determined Italian counter-attack.

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After a new troop carrier finished development on 26 May, research shifted to improving the equipment for mountain troops.

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The next phase of the drive on Tripoli began on the night of 26 May with an advance by 2 DP into open ground directly east of the objective as the British fought inland to the south.

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However, before 2 DP could take the coastal approaches to Tripoli and Italian division arrived to put up a hasty defence on the morning of 31 May. The tired Polish soldiers put in a quick attack on the equally exhausted Italian defenders.

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1-23 June 1941 – Empty Pockets

Sad news arrived at the start of the new month: after months of valiant resistance, the last Chinese troops in ‘The Pocket’ had been overrun shortly after midnight on 1 June. In better news for the Allies, both Iraq and Iran were once again approaching their final stands.

​

The fighting east of Tripoli was still continuing that night, with 34 DP being thrown in as soon as they made it up to the front line (progress to 88%).

The short-lived Dutch lodgement had been evicted from Algiers by midday on the 2nd, as heavy new attacks recommenced on the Rats of Oran. The Italians would suffer well over 4,000 casualties by the time these attacks were defeated four days later, not before there was concern in the eastern trenches of the Franco-Polish defenders.

Note: both were victories, despite the icon for the ‘Algiers’ battle.​

Victory came east of Tripoli on 2 June, with the Poles taking the ground and then brushing off a quick Italian counter-attack. By the evening of the 4th, they were ready to restart the advance despite continuing low organisation: Tripoli was open and they had to try.

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The Italians would continue to probe Oran for the rest of the month but seemed unable to break through. But in Libya, Tripoli was taken without a fight by the Polish advance guard on 8 June.

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The next day, all important Polish equipment holdings were in surplus when the new 49 DP (Mountain) was deployed into 3rd Army in southern Poland.

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The two latest Italian attacks on the Oran enclave were defeated on 10-11 June (total of 279 Allied, 2,931 Italian casualties). In Libya, with Tripoli taken Allied supply (and thus Polish organisation) had improved dramatically. By 13 June, the Allies were ready to launch Operation Battleaxe (Operacja Topór Bitewny in Polish).

It aimed for nothing less than the defeat and destruction of the remaining Italian Army in Libya. Tripoli was held to anchor a flanking march by 34 DP due south as 5 and 7 DP reinforced a British attack on two Italian divisions entrenched to the south-east of Tripoli.

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34 DP was in place by the night of the 14th, striking the Italians from behind. It would take more than three more days of fierce fighting before that battle was won, forcing the Italians to retreat south to join their comrades.

Spoiler: OTL Event: Operation Battleaxe

Another British counter-attack was launched in the Sollum-Halfaya Pass-Fort Capuzzo area, where Operation Brevity had been attempted, on 15 June. German 88mm guns and panzers met this effort and after some limited gains, this effort – codenamed ‘Operation Battleaxe’, also failed and the British were in retreat. The ATL will tell a different story.

Australia announced a new lend-lease grant of 1,499 units of infantry equipment per month on 19 June. This big offer could not be fully transported, but 50 Polish convoys (out of the 246 required) would try to ship as much as they could. At the same time, the 4th (Light) Tank Division deployed to 3rd Army in Poland. And war propaganda against Italy began to help boost war support (currently at 81%) for the incidental benefits that might provide.

The British began a holding attack on the southern Italian position early on 20 June as the Poles looked to hook west and then south around the back of the isolated Italians. Over in Oran, two more Italian attacks were defeated that day (total of 273 Allied, 3,409 Italian casualties).

Spoiler: OTL Event: Barbarossa

The German invasion of the Soviet Union began on 22 June, with deep inroads and large encirclements being made in the early days of the campaign.

The final phase of Operacja Topór Bitewny began on the morning of 23 June when 5 DP completed the encirclement of five remaining Italian divisions in Tripolitania, while 7 and 35 DP took over the British attack on the pocketed Italians and 2 DP moved south from Tripoli, which the British now guarded.

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Early on 27 June the two Polish flanking divisions were in place to reinforce the final assault. All Italian resistance ended at 1900hr that evening, with negligible Polish losses and over 15,000 Italians taken POW. Operacja Topór Bitewny had ended in a stunning victory, virtually ending many long months of tough desert warfare in Libya.

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24-30 June 1941 – Mopping Up

More research progress was recorded on 24 June.

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Two more victories around Oran on 26-27 June showed the the Italians were running out of steam (16 Allied, 1,528 Italian casualties), while the night of the 27th saw Allied forces advancing on a broad front towards the border with occupied Tunisia against minimal resistance.

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The next day, most Italian units surrounding Oran were unable to attack, while the heavy casualties and fall of Tripoli had once again sapped Italian division and reserve troop numbers.

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Iraq had been fully defeated and Iran almost so.

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A new Italian attack by two divisions east of Oran started at 0600hr on the 30th and was still going on as the day ended but was no more likely than its predecessors to succeed. The Italians had shifted their capital-in-exile to Casablanca, the British had advanced into southern Tunisia as the Poles followed on and the Rats of Oran held out.

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Apart from a few aircraft, Polish equipment stockpiles were all currently in surplus, though new recruiting was very limited. Poland remained stable, support for the war solid and the manpower reserve large.

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Theatre Summaries

The Mexican proxy war between the Allies and the MAB was almost over, as the US still remained a neutral observer.

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In the last two months, the Japanese had secured most of northern Borneo but were finding it difficult to advance out of it.

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The French seemed to be striking back in Indochina against the Fascist advance, with armoured units leading a couple of spearheads.

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The main China front was resolving into several dire-looking pockets of Chinese and Allied troops, assailed on all sides by Fascists and Communists.

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Overall, the war still favoured the Allies generally but while China still hung on, they were approaching the limits of their resistance by 30 June 1941. Could their Allies do anything more to relieve them before they were forced to surrender? They had already each lost hundreds of thousands of troops in the effort so far.

 

[jak7139]

Which also pointed out that a French guarantee of Czech independence could make any such venture problematic and counter to wider Allied – and Polish – strategic interests.

I'm not sure about HOI4, but at least in EU4 attacking a nation who is guaranteed by someone you are allied with in another war bypasses the guarantee. So if this was a different game, you could attack the Czechs here without any French involvement.

The coastal advance in Tripolitania was briefly counter-attacked on 6 May and though the exhausted 2 DP was forced to retreat, their comrades in 7 DP were able to hold the gain.

I see some gaps in the Italian line. Is this the final push?

Then , on 19 May, Trotsky finally got another country to join the 4th International!

Are Mongolia and Tannu Tuva still USR puppets, or did they break free when Stalin was deposed? If Trotsky can barely get his own puppets to join his faction, then the USR government could be having internal issues.

The next phase of the drive on Tripoli began on the night of 26 May with an advance by 2 DP into open ground directly east of the objective as the British fought inland to the south.

From the halls of Montezuma, to the shores of Tripoli...

Sad news arrived at the start of the new month: after months of valiant resistance, the last Chinese troops in ‘The Pocket’ had been overrun shortly after midnight on 1 June. In better news for the Allies, both Iraq and Iran were once again approaching their final stands.

In memory of the Chinese Pocket.

The Italians would continue to probe Oran for the rest of the month but seemed unable to break through. But in Libya, Tripoli was taken without a fight by the Polish advance guard on 8 June.

So many Italian troops have been held up in Oran thanks to the Poles' efforts. They all deserve a vacation after this.

Early on 27 June the two Polish flanking divisions were in place to reinforce the final assault. All Italian resistance ended at 1900hr that evening, with negligible Polish losses and over 15,000 Italians taken POW. Operacja Topór Bitewny had ended in a stunning victory, virtually ending many long months of tough desert warfare in Libya.

Italy should be close to capitulation now. Right?

Two more victories around Oran on 26-27 June showed the the Italians were running out of steam (16 Allied, 1,528 Italian casualties), while the night of the 27th saw Allied forces advancing on a broad front towards the border with occupied Tunisia against minimal resistance.

Even though Italian manpower seems to be refilling, their equipment must be running low.

The next day, most Italian units surrounding Oran were unable to attack, while the heavy casualties and fall of Tripoli had once again sapped Italian division and reserve troop numbers.

Hopefully just taking the rest of Libya should be enough for Italy to bow out. Unless they have core land somewhere else?

Iraq had been fully defeated and Iran almost so

One "I" out, two nearly so. The triple "I"ntente isn't looking so good.

The Italians had shifted their capital-in-exile to Casablanca, the British had advanced into southern Tunisia as the Poles followed on and the Rats of Oran held out.

I'm not sure why Italy hasn't surrendered yet. You should only need to occupy most of their cores. Do they still hold Ethipoia?

 

[Midnite Duke]

The mighty kookaburras are flying supplies to the Poles. Will the fighting dingoes be soon biting the heels of fleeing Italians? Rumor is that Rocky is in talks to transfer the Italian capital from Casablanca (Play It Again, Sam) to South Philly. Are the fascists and communists fighting each other in China on only the nationalists? Thank you for updating.

 

[Bullfilter]

Are the fascists and communists fighting each other in China on only the nationalists?

Quick answer: still only the NatChi, not each other.

 

[El Pip]

While some expansionists in Warsaw agitated for using the idle Polish Army to seize territory – some subject to long-standing Polish claims – from neutral Czechoslovakia

A helpful reminder that much of the inter-war Polish leadership was somewhat, or at least believed their own mythmaking about the "Miracle on the Vistula". They were their own worst enemy much of the time.

The Italians had shifted their capital-in-exile to Casablanca

That does seem an awful lot like cheating from the AI or at least a poor gameplay design choice by Paradox. At this point Italy really should have given up, if the only VP they have left are in captured colonial territory then even the most fanatical defender would know they have lost.