Poles Apart – an HOI4 Ahistory

[BenKerryAltis]

Note the battle has already been fought in the last play session, just didn’t have space to include it in this chapter, so you will see what happened next time.

Yes, there are lots of them, found all over the place. I think there were some in Mexico too and more than one in Europe by now.

Yeah. The big question is whether or not one of those gigantic pockets can be created somewhere, if not the war will resemble the Eastern Front of World War One, an increasingly unfavorable arrangement given the developments in Australia and beyond

 

[BenKerryAltis]

Battle of Odessa would be rad as a Call of Duty World At War mission honestly. It's going to be so over the top that Stalingrad and beyond look like child's play

 

[BenKerryAltis]

The game seem to affirm the DePuy era US army doctrine that a 2:1 force ratio (typically but do not always translate to unit ratio as quality and capability also contribute to force) to have a proper chance to succeed in a hasty attack. A 3:1 force ratio is required to succeed in a deliberate attack on fortified enemy. One of the more perplexing statement was that it was claimed that to succeed in a breakthrough a 18:1 force ratio is required, which typically means instead of committing massive amount of divisions force multipliers such as armoured units, surprise and air support should be concentrated at the point.
The ratio of divisions in the fight can serve as an approximation of force ratio, but other factors matter too.

 

[jak7139]

In the early hours of 16 April, the Poles were advancing up to the western outskirts of Krivoi Rih and making a supporting attack east of Mykolaiv to assist the continuing British attack on the town itself.

And if you win east of Mykolaiv, I think the one enemy division in the city itself will be cut-off.

With the southern bank of the Dnieper now secured near Kiev, a massive operation by 2nd and 5th Army divisions commenced on the afternoon of 17 April to force a crossing of the great river. Finding a weak spot in the line where only one division defended, the battle would be won almost exactly a day later.

The promising beginnings of a future encirclement.

The Allies hung on in northern Borneo, but their position still looked precarious.

We can't see what Japan has in the fog of war, but the frontlines on the island look rather thin. If only the Allies had a few more men to exploit it.

Bad news came from Australia, where the two US landings had linked up, allowing them to resupply and threaten the single French division in location from both sides.

And I'm assuming there are little to no friendlies in Australia, having been all shipped somewhere else.

In any case, the victory in Tiraspol came on the morning of the 22nd, with the Soviets suffering very heavy casualties (over 5,000 killed).

Odessa is encircled! Better attack quickly before the Soviets pull everybody out.

East of Kiev, the first bridgehead over the Dnieper was seized by the evening of the 21st with at least eight Polish (or EF) divisions across. Four advanced north-west along the far bank of the Dnieper towards Kiev where another Allied river crossing was in progress.

Looks to around ten enemy divisions in this potential encirclement. A good amount of progress if you can pull it off.

 

[BenKerryAltis]

And if you win east of Mykolaiv, I think the one enemy division in the city itself will be cut-off.

The promising beginnings of a future encirclement.

We can't see what Japan has in the fog of war, but the frontlines on the island look rather thin. If only the Allies had a few more men to exploit it.

And I'm assuming there are little to no friendlies in Australia, having been all shipped somewhere else.

Odessa is encircled! Better attack quickly before the Soviets pull everybody out.

Looks to around ten enemy divisions in this potential encirclement. A good amount of progress if you can pull it off.

Not really, the Poles seem to be really really conservative in operations. Breakthroughs are widened rather than deepened (at this force concentration allied troops can typically guard the corridors by their own). They have missed plenty of opportunities for encirclement.

Fall of Australia would be a travesty honestly, however the country is so massive that it do enables a smaller force to hold the enemy off.

Odessa is probably under naval blockade. Still, don't bypass it yet.

The big operation concept at this rate would be to somehow encircle and destroy enough Soviet divisions so they are forced to pull troops south and hopefully a breakthrough can be achieved in the Baltic.

Won't suggest anything in the pacific.

Any plans for a review on mountaineer unit structure? Would be handy for future operations in Eurasia.

 

[stnylan]

May Australia be a millstone around the Yankee neck, so after the "little" matter of Russia has been dealt they will be all the more easily destroyed.

The gains in the south are very appealing ,but hopefully at some point more gains in the centre?

 

[BenKerryAltis]

May Australia be a millstone around the Yankee neck, so after the "little" matter of Russia has been dealt they will be all the more easily destroyed.

The gains in the south are very appealing ,but hopefully at some point more gains in the centre?

Yeah, I do not believe Southern Ukraine, and by extension Southern Russia, to be a "centre of mass" in any sense. As far as I'm concerned the oil of Baku is not particularly of vital importance.
The decision point of the summer offensive right now would be either Kharkov (factories and the possibility of a southern swing towards Moscow) or Rostov, the goal of the latter would be to create a corridor that isolates the Soviet forces in Turkey. However it should be noted that this will stretch the line too thin to maintain a continuous frontline and the infrastructural hurdles will be significant. Tyranny of time and distance will be in full display there
It might even be prudent to have some sort of "cheaty" independent calvary brigades to handle the terrible infrastructure of Southern Russian hinterland (the theory is to create a corridor to link the entire Asian theatre together that do not require sea power (to be honest it will be of dubious value)

 

[Bullfilter]

Yeah, I do not believe Southern Ukraine, and by extension Southern Russia, to be a "centre of mass" in any sense. As far as I'm concerned the oil of Baku is not particularly of vital importance.
The decision point of the summer offensive right now would be either Kharkov (factories and the possibility of a southern swing towards Moscow) or Rostov, the goal of the latter would be to create a corridor that isolates the Soviet forces in Turkey. However it should be noted that this will stretch the line too thin to maintain a continuous frontline and the infrastructural hurdles will be significant. Tyranny of time and distance will be in full display there
It might even be prudent to have some sort of "cheaty" independent calvary brigades to handle the terrible infrastructure of Southern Russian hinterland (the theory is to create a corridor to link the entire Asian theatre together that do not require sea power (to be honest it will be of dubious value)

These are some of the broader lines of thinking at the moment, though also weighing heavily is the destruction of as much of the Soviet Army as possible, not quite separate to but parallel with any industrial, population or resource centres. I do have some ideas for possible next steps but am keeping some of those back for now: in part because there is a lot of opportunism in there, in part for suspense.

Also I remind that I am really very much a novice HOI4 player (this is about my third full game, with the previous ones being minor powers smaller than even Poland). So I’ve never conducted a full scale broad front offensive before in HOI4 and therefore don’t have an instinctive feel for the game mechanics yet. Indeed, I don’t yet properly understand many of them.

 

[BenKerryAltis]

These are some of the broader lines of thinking at the moment, though also weighing heavily is the destruction of as much of the Soviet Army as possible, not quite separate to but parallel with any industrial, population or resource centres. I do have some ideas for possible next steps but am keeping some of those back for now: in part because there is a lot of opportunism in there, in part for suspense.

Also I remind that I am really very much a novice HOI4 player (this is about my third full game, with the previous ones being minor powers smaller than even Poland). So I’ve never conducted a full scale broad front offensive before in HOI4 and therefore don’t have an instinctive feel for the game mechanics yet. Indeed, I don’t yet properly understand many of them.

Me too, got absolutely no idea how to use airpower. And I've got a very "gamey" altitude with the game once the operations become larger than I can handle or it didn't went the way I want it to.

 

[Bullfilter]

Me too, got absolutely no idea how to use airpower. And I've got a very "gamey" altitude with the game once the operations become larger than I can handle or it didn't went the way I want it to.

Right. This game is my first half-serious use of air power. I tend to try to avoid outright gamey stuff (ie rank exploits) as a personal preference but will take whatever the game gives me ‘openly’.

 

[BenKerryAltis]

Right. This game is my first half-serious use of air power. I tend to try to avoid outright gamey stuff (ie rank exploits) as a personal preference but will take whatever the game gives me ‘openly’.

I also try to manage frontlines with a “corps” structure (4 divs per general or occasionally more). And make detailed plans for advances (quickly the automatic frontline turns into a mess (strongly recommend the game to have some sort of “non rigid” mode for frontline planner where you don’t have the planner automatically move divisions around. As you can imagine this quickly turns into a massive pain in the *rse. I’m still thinking of Honduran force
design, what would be the goal of the Honduran armed force after the “hostile takeovers”.
I’d picture Honduran armed force to be a blend of German, American and British force design components. One idea I’m having is to have senior NCOs in charge of platoons like the Germans have to make up for the lack of junior officers. The massive army expansion will be problematic to say at least.
The end goal is preferably a 8 div army for offensives into South America, two mountaineer and two marines. Four infantry division and maybe one or two “independent brigades” each with four battalions and a engineer component for plugging any gaps. The theory is that the terrain of central America makes mechanized forces suboptimal and hence the best way to fight is to have well trained light infantry force backed up by massive artillery.
Extensive production of artillery would be needed for this purpose.
Gen Lopez promoted to field marshal and have two new generals over there each commanding a corp (it’s going to be problematic for getting quality leadership to the corps, again, army expansion sucks).
The navy will consist of six ships, two light cruisers and four destroyers. (no idea how to build a big enough navy)
The air force is purely for air superiority I guess, they are kinda expensive to build and the poor infrastructure of south America means their value is diminished. Probably going to be a fighter wing.
The primary enemy would be the Colombian armed force (and potentially Mexican armed force)

 

[SSmith]

The last Allied remnants in Western Mexico were in the process of being liquidated. The four divisions holding inland were now retreating to the coast, which was also under attack by Mexican forces with no hope of victory or rescue.

Another eight Allied divisions gone... and one less problem for the TRA and the MAB.

In Malaya, the Japanese had expanded their beachhead south of Kota Bharu and were trying to break out from the main position in the north, though the Allied defence there was holding up for now.

The Japanese are going to be difficult to dislodge and I don't see the battle for Malaya being resolved either quickly or easily now.

Bad news came from Australia, where the two US landings had linked up, allowing them to resupply and threaten the single French division in location from both sides.

The factional view of the Pacific Theatre showed that by 18 April, the Allies had been restricted to a series of island enclaves from Java and Borneo through New Guinea and the south-western Pacific islands. Australia’s northern approach had been breached at Darwin with New Zealand perhaps also now in some danger.

Given the distance and the difficult terrain, I was hoping it would take the Americans rather longer to link up with those otherwise stranded divisions. The only good news here is that Darwin makes a very poor starting point for an invasion of Australia. This is going to take the Americans a very long time and will potentially draw in huge numbers of TRA divisions that can't then be used more productively elsewhere. Of course this might also turn into another big distraction for the Allies as well, but I get the feeling the Allied AI is no longer able to handle the global scale of this war and the Asia-Pacific theatre is increasingly being neglected.

In ominous news for the enemy, the Allies currently had around 14,000 aircraft deployed over the Ukraine air zone!

And that is without the Americans! Not good for Trotsky!

East of Kiev, the first bridgehead over the Dnieper was seized by the evening of the 21st with at least eight Polish (or EF) divisions across. Four advanced north-west along the far bank of the Dnieper towards Kiev where another Allied river crossing was in progress.

My impression is that it's becoming easier to punch through the Soviet front now? If so, the damage already inflicted on the Red Army must be a major factor.

In the Dnieper salient, the attack on Krivoi Rih see-sawed throughout 18-19 April as the Poles were forced to add in divisions to maintain or regain the momentum of the assault. A hard-fought and quite expensive victory would be won by 1100hr on the 20th and the town occupied that afternoon.

Another step forward. Everything you take deprives the Soviets of a few resources and factories (and a VP every now and again) and this all helps with the rather daunting task of forcing an eventual Soviet surrender. Onward to Dnipropetrovsk.

Tiraspol was occupied by Polish advance guard troops on the morning of the 22nd and were immediately counter-attacked from Odessa even as eight enemy divisions were still retreating from Tiraspol.

In Odessa, under attack and becoming overcrowded again with those withdrawing from Tiraspol, supply, organisation and unit strengths were all falling by the afternoon of 23 April.

Excellent! Now for Odessa. The Soviets have got nowhere left to retreat to... but I fear this is still going to require a sustained and costly offensive to destroy them.

 

[BenKerryAltis]

Another eight Allied divisions gone... and one less problem for the TRA and the MAB.



The Japanese are going to be difficult to dislodge and I don't see the battle for Malaya being resolved either quickly or easily now.



Given the distance and the difficult terrain, I was hoping it would take the Americans rather longer to link up with those otherwise stranded divisions. The only good news here is that Darwin makes a very poor starting point for an invasion of Australia. This is going to take the Americans a very long time and will potentially draw in huge numbers of TRA divisions that can't then be used more productively elsewhere. Of course this might also turn into another big distraction for the Allies as well, but I get the feeling the Allied AI is no longer able to handle the global scale of this war and the Asia-Pacific theatre is increasingly being neglected.



And that is without the Americans! Not good for Trotsky!



My impression is that it's becoming easier to punch through the Soviet front now? If so, the damage already inflicted on the Red Army must be a major factor.



Another step forward. Everything you take deprives the Soviets of a few resources and factories (and a VP every now and again) and this all helps with the rather daunting task of forcing an eventual Soviet surrender. Onward to Dnipropetrovsk.



Excellent! Now for Odessa. The Soviets have got nowhere left to retreat to... but I fear this is still going to require a sustained and costly offensive to destroy them.

Actually from a "gamey" standpoint it is better to attack from one direction only if you want to attrit an encircled enemy. By limiting the front width a lot of your divisions will have to be on the reserve and they will help replacing your disorganised divisions, while every disorganised enemy division will be annihilated. The long term favors your side as long as the attack is relentless

 

[Bullfilter]

OK, final instalment for the April session is ready. Feedback for comments I haven't already responded to below.

Yeah. The big question is whether or not one of those gigantic pockets can be created somewhere, if not the war will resemble the Eastern Front of World War One, an increasingly unfavorable arrangement given the developments in Australia and beyond

Even larger encirclements is something we're hoping to achieve in the next phase of the offensive. Still preparing the ground for that and trying to set up the conditions for a major Soviet collapse. But it's taking time: we're not Barbarossa in 1941 and it takes some doing - especially for so,meone who's never really tried this before in HOI4.

Battle of Odessa would be rad as a Call of Duty World At War mission honestly. It's going to be so over the top that Stalingrad and beyond look like child's play

Coming soon to a video game franchise near you!

The game seem to affirm the DePuy era US army doctrine that a 2:1 force ratio (typically but do not always translate to unit ratio as quality and capability also contribute to force) to have a proper chance to succeed in a hasty attack. A 3:1 force ratio is required to succeed in a deliberate attack on fortified enemy. One of the more perplexing statement was that it was claimed that to succeed in a breakthrough a 18:1 force ratio is required, which typically means instead of committing massive amount of divisions force multipliers such as armoured units, surprise and air support should be concentrated at the point.
The ratio of divisions in the fight can serve as an approximation of force ratio, but other factors matter too.

Yes, that's a familiar guideline, but it's very much circumstantial as well. Momentum is what we really want - if that can be maintained after a breakthrough, then the ratios get far easier for the attacker. Gotta get there first though.

And if you win east of Mykolaiv, I think the one enemy division in the city itself will be cut-off.

Yes, looking to bag more than that in this sector as we try to drive to Crimea.

The promising beginnings of a future encirclement.

We keep trying.

We can't see what Japan has in the fog of war, but the frontlines on the island look rather thin. If only the Allies had a few more men to exploit it.

I think they are now likely to be even more reluctant to do so. And the Japanese Peoples' Navy has to be reckoned with as well.

And I'm assuming there are little to no friendlies in Australia, having been all shipped somewhere else.

I think there are more further south. May will shed more light on the wider picture there.

Odessa is encircled! Better attack quickly before the Soviets pull everybody out.

Prophetic words ...

Looks to around ten enemy divisions in this potential encirclement. A good amount of progress if you can pull it off.

It is a relentless process. I'm after enemy troops more than VPs or resources at the moment.

Not really, the Poles seem to be really really conservative in operations. Breakthroughs are widened rather than deepened (at this force concentration allied troops can typically guard the corridors by their own). They have missed plenty of opportunities for encirclement.

Fall of Australia would be a travesty honestly, however the country is so massive that it do enables a smaller force to hold the enemy off.

Odessa is probably under naval blockade. Still, don't bypass it yet.

The big operation concept at this rate would be to somehow encircle and destroy enough Soviet divisions so they are forced to pull troops south and hopefully a breakthrough can be achieved in the Baltic.

Won't suggest anything in the pacific.

Any plans for a review on mountaineer unit structure? Would be handy for future operations in Eurasia.

Well, as I've said before I'm pretty new to the game and especially to doing anything on such a large scale, and on the Eastern Front. I've done what I thought the forces could bear, and remember a lot of it was done in nasty winter weather that slowed ops and movement. Some of those opportunities for encirclement may have ended up in overextended and poorly supplied spearheads being themselves cut off and destroyed by the Soviets. Or at least so I calculated. We shall see whether Poland has been too cautious or not in the longer run, I guess. Could be so, but ... <shrugs>

No bypass for Odessa. We want it taken and our troops released to pour into deep offensive ops. Couple of options for the next big push, whose scope in part depends on how we assess Soviet strength and Allied preparedness as we move towards summer. No plans for reviewing mountaineer structures yet - more focus on mechanised units, and we haven't had the equipment for much division building either.

May Australia be a millstone around the Yankee neck, so after the "little" matter of Russia has been dealt they will be all the more easily destroyed.

The gains in the south are very appealing ,but hopefully at some point more gains in the centre?

Let us hope so! There's always a chance the 7th Army may become the German Australian Corps! There is a plan for this advance in the south, but at least a couple of options for the next exploitation. Crimea is a secondary objective, but yes, the main game will be in the centre. Things take shape a little more as we come to the end of April.

I also try to manage frontlines with a “corps” structure (4 divs per general or occasionally more). And make detailed plans for advances (quickly the automatic frontline turns into a mess (strongly recommend the game to have some sort of “non rigid” mode for frontline planner where you don’t have the planner automatically move divisions around. As you can imagine this quickly turns into a massive pain in the *rse. I’m still thinking of Honduran force
design, what would be the goal of the Honduran armed force after the “hostile takeovers”.
I’d picture Honduran armed force to be a blend of German, American and British force design components. One idea I’m having is to have senior NCOs in charge of platoons like the Germans have to make up for the lack of junior officers. The massive army expansion will be problematic to say at least.
The end goal is preferably a 8 div army for offensives into South America, two mountaineer and two marines. Four infantry division and maybe one or two “independent brigades” each with four battalions and a engineer component for plugging any gaps. The theory is that the terrain of central America makes mechanized forces suboptimal and hence the best way to fight is to have well trained light infantry force backed up by massive artillery.
Extensive production of artillery would be needed for this purpose.
Gen Lopez promoted to field marshal and have two new generals over there each commanding a corp (it’s going to be problematic for getting quality leadership to the corps, again, army expansion sucks).
The navy will consist of six ships, two light cruisers and four destroyers. (no idea how to build a big enough navy)
The air force is purely for air superiority I guess, they are kinda expensive to build and the poor infrastructure of south America means their value is diminished. Probably going to be a fighter wing.
The primary enemy would be the Colombian armed force (and potentially Mexican armed force)

I never use the AI frontlines and commands - it's all done by micro-management, with armies maxed out to their limit. Re the Honduran aims, perhaps for this audience that's something we can take up in your AAR thread, if you like? A lot of it will be lost on readers here.

Another eight Allied divisions gone... and one less problem for the TRA and the MAB.

Yes, snakes and ladders.

The Japanese are going to be difficult to dislodge and I don't see the battle for Malaya being resolved either quickly or easily now.

No, looks like another of these difficult island campaigns. Still, I'd rather they get bogged down there than sweeping through the Raj and Iran, for example.

Given the distance and the difficult terrain, I was hoping it would take the Americans rather longer to link up with those otherwise stranded divisions. The only good news here is that Darwin makes a very poor starting point for an invasion of Australia. This is going to take the Americans a very long time and will potentially draw in huge numbers of TRA divisions that can't then be used more productively elsewhere. Of course this might also turn into another big distraction for the Allies as well, but I get the feeling the Allied AI is no longer able to handle the global scale of this war and the Asia-Pacific theatre is increasingly being neglected.

Once they got going, it happened pretty quickly. Though the pattern in this war is for the defenders to reinforce and the invasion to bog down into a long and bloody slugfest!

And that is without the Americans! Not good for Trotsky!

Not good at all.

My impression is that it's becoming easier to punch through the Soviet front now? If so, the damage already inflicted on the Red Army must be a major factor.

My feeling too, and the whole aim of this part of the campaign. Strain them to breaking point, then move in for the kill. Sounds good in theory, anyway!

Another step forward. Everything you take deprives the Soviets of a few resources and factories (and a VP every now and again) and this all helps with the rather daunting task of forcing an eventual Soviet surrender. Onward to Dnipropetrovsk.

Forward to victory!

Excellent! Now for Odessa. The Soviets have got nowhere left to retreat to... but I fear this is still going to require a sustained and costly offensive to destroy them.

All will soon be revealed ...

Actually from a "gamey" standpoint it is better to attack from one direction only if you want to attrit an encircled enemy. By limiting the front width a lot of your divisions will have to be on the reserve and they will help replacing your disorganised divisions, while every disorganised enemy division will be annihilated. The long term favors your side as long as the attack is relentless

Could be so, but sometimes I just want the battle over as quickly as possible and to gain the multiple direction bonus. Really don't know the game well enough to assess this course of action, but thanks for the suggestion.

Next chapter follows soon.

 

[Bullfilter]

Chapter Ninety-eight: The Battle for Odessa
(22-30 April 1947)

Polish President Ignacy Mościcki, b. 1 December 1867. Now nearing 80 years old, he still leads wartime Poland - which does not conduct elections under the authoritarian Sanacja Party. (Note in OTL he died in October 1946, but here it seems he will be immortal!) [Leonardo Phoenix 1.0, using the in-game portrait as a reference picture, trying to make him look a little older]

=======​

Eastern Front

The rail line north of Odessa was partly completed by 23 April as the Poles prepared for the next stage of the assault on the enclave. It seemed at least 13 under-strength Soviet divisions had managed to escape from Odessa the following morning and while there were also Allied convoys in the same seas space, there was no evidence of Allied naval forces trying to intercept them.

​

[Game Note: I’d already played the session through, but at this point wished I’d previously done as advised and stationed my subs there!]

As soon as this had been realised by the Poles, an attack was ordered immediately on Odessa to prevent any more from escaping. General Anders launched a skilful infiltration assault from three directions with 18 divisions against about the same number of Soviet formations and started making good progress from the start.

Polish troops advance into the outskirts of Odessa, 24 April 1947. [Leonardo Phoenix 1.0, from a reference picture]​

The same day, the Dnieper river crossing near Cherkasy was expanded after a vicious and quite costly fight. Soon after, two divisions exploited east into the Chernigov sector against flimsy resistance that melted away after a short skirmish.

​

By the night of the 24th, three Polish offensives were proceeding well in the Kiev-Chernigov, Dnieper Salient and Odessa Enclave sectors.

​

In the north of the Kiev salient, an exploitation attack to extend the northern pincer begun on 25 April succeeded by 0700hr the 28th. However, the Poles were not able to hold the ground with sufficient force to prevent it being retaken by the Soviets in a counter-attack five hours later. At that time, a single British division was attacking the southern flank of the shrinking Soviet salient east of Kiev.

​

Meanwhile, the attack on Odessa had been grinding away for the last four days. By the end of the 27th, a Romanian division had joined in, helping to offset exhausted Polish divisions that had to be rotated out.

Romanian troops pushing into Odessa from the north-east, 28 April 1947.​

From 25-27 April, the momentum of the battle had see-sawed, but by midday on the 26th the Poles had taken the upper hand and would not relinquish it. Two Soviet divisions had already surrendered by then and another four would give up by the afternoon of the 27th.

​

This accelerated through the morning of the 28th, until the last Soviet formation surrendered at 0900hr. Almost 165,000 Soviet troops had either been killed or surrendered in Odessa and 19 divisions destroyed.

Polish troops march through central Odessa after its surrender on 28 April 1947. A Polish battle standard can be seen, while crowds of largely Ukrainian locals look on. [Leonardo Phoenix 1.0, from a reference picture]

Meanwhile large columns of bedraggled Soviet prisoners were marched out of the city to internment camps: they would be taking no further part in this huge global war. [Bing DALL-E, prompt only]​

The Kiev Salient battles continued through 29-30 April, with the Allies assisting to cut off two Soviet divisions in the north-west while also attacking the east of the shrinking salient.

​

Further east, the Poles renewed their attempts to close out the salient from the north and south, with some success, though the northernmost of the two battles was still in progress by the afternoon of the 30th.

The air war continued in the Allies’ favour, with strong air superiority holding by 30 April. The loss ratio between the Polish and Soviet air forces in the Ukraine air zone was heavily in Poland’s favour for the month just completed. And this was only a limited subset of the overall toll.

​

[Game Note: I briefly tag to check wider Soviet-Allied losses for the month to verify this. I’ll put some details for comparison in a follow-up post in a few days.]

As the Dnieper Salient was extended to the outskirts of Dnipropetrovsk in the east and south of the river between Kherson and Zaporozhe, the supply lines were working well, allowing advances to be sustained.

​

As the month was ending, some Soviet counter-attacks had been or were being repelled as others pushed forward. By that evening the battle for Dnipropetrovsk, the last Soviet toehold in the salient, had been won but the town not yet occupied. The forces released earlier from the Battle for Odessa were making their way to reinforce the salient in preparation for the next stage of the Spring Offensive, whose target was being kept a closely guarded secret.

​

In the Black Sea a Red Navy flotilla had been ambushed by a far larger French-led Allied fleet, with the battle still in progress as the month ended.

=======​

The Rest of the World

The first convoy of the former German Mexico Corps had arrived safely in Sydney some days before the next convoy of two divisions was nearing Wellington in New Zealand. Where they were attacked by an American sub wolf pack on 25 April – ANZAC Day.

​

Luftwaffen-Feld-Division 2 suffered 25% losses when one of its four convoys was sunk. In return, the USS R-4 was sunk when Allied naval bombers and an Australian destroyer task group led by two light cruisers came to the Poles’ aid.

In eastern Canada, by the night of 28 April two of the three cut-off US divisions had been destroyed and the last was failing in a bitter battle with a Danish division. It represented a rare clear success for the Allies in this theatre.

​

More broadly, the small enclave on the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula was now the only other Allied foothold in North America, with the last resistance in Western Mexico having been wrapped up by the end of the month.

​

Though the last US trapped division had surrendered on the eastern Canadian front.

Dejected US prisoners contemplate what may prove to be a long internment, under Allied guard in eastern Canada, 30 April 1947. [Bing DALL-E, prompt only]​

The front lines remained the same in the Middle East and Iran as they had been at the start of the month. But while even more isolated now than they had been, two Allied pockets continued to hold out in north-west China and Sinkiang had not yet been fully overrun by the Communist forces of the MAB and 4thInt.

​

The Japanese had managed to extend their beachhead in northern Malaya slightly, endangering a couple of smaller Allied formations on the west coast and exposing an Allied line that was not yet fully solidified across the peninsula.

Japanese Peoples’ Army soldiers advance in northern Malaya, April 1947 [Bing DALL-E, prompt only]​

In Borneo, a powerful the Japanese Peoples’ Navy carrier task group confronted Manchurian subs off the north coast, while the fight on land appeared to be stalemated for now.

Japanese marines patrol the jungles of northern Borneo, April 1947. [Bing DALL-E, prompt only]​

The US had consolidated its beachhead in northern Australia, while some Australian resistance seemed to have been established at the eastern point of the invasion.

Australian infantrymen man an observation post as they anticipate an American push along the southern coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria, 30 April 1947 [Bing DALL-E, prompt only]

=======​

Eastern Front – Monthly Summary

On the Finnish and Archangelsk fronts, the Allies had been able to hold firm, with the front line seemingly re-established after a brief scare at the western edge of the Archangelsk enclave earlier in the month. Little had changed in Estonia either.

British troops in a strongpoint on the Archangelsk front observe their countrymen patrolling in the distance, April 1947. [Bing DALL-E, prompt only]

In the Kiev sector, the pincers had not yet quite closed on another smaller Soviet pocket as the Dnieper crossing was expanded between Chernigov and Cherkasy. Reasonable gains had been made in April, given this offensive had been somewhat delayed by harsher weather conditions in Belarus and northern Ukraine.

​

In the south, the funnelling of reinforcements from the former Odessa Enclave to the Dnieper Salient continued.

​

While the gains within that salient since the start of April were the largest by any Allied armies across the world, with some Allied formations pushing forward to support the leading Polish divisions.

​

Allied reporting showed 51 Soviet convoys had been sunk during April but it was unclear where these had gone down. The Poles hoped many had been sent to the bottom of the Black Sea during the partial Soviet evacuation from Odessa.

On the equipment front, the familiar deficits of AT, light tanks and light SP artillery remained. However, field artillery now showed a healthy surplus though infantry equipment, long in a decent surplus, had been chewed up by combat and occupation demands. Production lines were stepped up to start addressing that, while it was hoped some lend-lease might be provided by their Allies.

​

In the latest global reckoning, monthly Polish losses stood at around 31,000 men, with the manpower reserve declining by a little more after new units requirements had been furnished. Overall, the Allies had lost around 460,000 in all theatres.

​

Once more, the Soviets had fared worse against the Allies as a whole, having lost another 290,000 troops and the 19 divisions destroyed in Odessa. Once more, their manpower pool was essentially empty, a few thousand men in transit to reinforce divisions that were often considerably under strength. The combined enemy factions has suffered a total of 480,000 losses, a little more than the Allies on balance.

 

[stnylan]

The fall of Odessa is most welcome, and good news around Kiev, but still a very long way to go.

One has to wonder idly how are the Rats of Oran doing? A long long time now since their valiant efforts against the Italians.

 

[StrategyGameEnthusiast]

Polish President Ignacy Mościcki, b. 1 December 1867. Now nearing 80 years old, he still leads wartime Poland - which does not conduct elections under the authoritarian Sanacja Party. (Note in OTL he died in October 1946, but here it seems he will be immortal!)

Leaders being immortal seems to sometimes occur.

Hitler sometimes survives and leads post-war Germany (even if defeated, his historical fate is limited to the German Civil War iirc).
Wendell Wilkie doesn't die if he's elected in 1940 (in OTL he died in 1944).
If France goes down the Orleanist path, the only way to get the younger king (Henri VI) is to wait until his father (Jean III) dies to complete the restoration focus. If you restore Jean III, he won't die at all (he dies on August 24th 1940 if he isn't already king).

 

[jak7139]

This accelerated through the morning of the 28th, until the last Soviet formation surrendered at 0900hr. Almost 165,000 Soviet troops had either been killed or surrendered in Odessa and 19 divisions destroyed.

Hooray! Another victory and more friendly divisions freed up for future endeavors.

The forces released earlier from the Battle for Odessa were making their way to reinforce the salient in preparation for the next stage of the Spring Offensive, whose target was being kept a closely guarded secret.

Whatever the target is, the Soviet lines are thinning considerably. It is not if, but when, the next pocket is closed.

In eastern Canada, by the night of 28 April two of the three cut-off US divisions had been destroyed and the last was failing in a bitter battle with a Danish division. It represented a rare clear success for the Allies in this theatre.

Every little bit helps.

But while even more isolated now than they had been, two Allied pockets continued to hold out in north-west China and Sinkiang had not yet been fully overrun by the Communist forces of the MAB and 4thInt.

Let's hope they delay for as long as possible.

On the Finnish and Archangelsk fronts, the Allies had been able to hold firm, with the front line seemingly re-established after a brief scare at the western edge of the Archangelsk enclave earlier in the month. Little had changed in Estonia either.

There's no movement up here, the opposite from your rapid campaigns down south.

infantry equipment, long in a decent surplus, had been chewed up by combat and occupation demands.

Do you have a separate occupation focused garrison? That could be a good idea. You don't need to deploy any of it, just make the template and assign it as your garrison unit.

The combined enemy factions has suffered a total of 480,000 losses, a little more than the Allies on balance.

Everyone bleeds, but the enemy bleeds more. Keep the pressure up!

 

[BenKerryAltis]

My theory right now. Again, my belief is that if frontline integrity (and minimisation of risk) is to be preserved then this is the most dynamic plan possible. Only a swing north has the potential to "decisively" win the war in europe before American/Japanese/Chinese march down Australia and Raj. Doubt any good could come from Black sea convergence with the Turks.
The northern army group would have to play some risk leaving some parts of the line/secondary efforts to be supported by allied partner forces. The enemy concentration along that front is simply too high. Do not attempt small scale encirclements as this is detrimental towards force economy, commit to the least defended sectors along enemy line with overwhelming numerical advantage (do more with less). The high force concentration on that front means actions will have to be attritional with an explicit aim to pin Soviet forces in theatre. If necessary the southern pincer will have to commit to the encirclement.
Two echelon of army groups would have to be involved in the south, The army group currently at the frontline should swing north while the group responsible for Odessa should drive east until reaching rivers for a natural defense line as second echelon or reinforce the first echelon.
For southern offensives it is more possible to attempt limited encirclements, single envelopments pinning Soviet units against the shores of Black sea could work. Still, avoid dissipation of effort. The main effort should be aimed at Kharkov and beyond. Go towards Moscow.
The main threat with the encirclement effort would be Soviet reserve units and reinforcements from other theatres, the defenders along Dniepr river consists of single divisions that is less threatening during breakouts.
Another theory is that the most important part in Allied planning should be targeting Soviet industry, capture as many factory as possible. Again, go for the Moscow belt

 

[BenKerryAltis]

Of course again this is gross underestimation of "Clausewitzian friction", my frustration with the slow moving battlefield has "forced" me to result to this aggressive plan. The plan is perhaps overly aggressive and risks signifficant dispersion of effort.

The more ”conservative" plan.
Control of Crimea do open up some new plans, such as crossing the Kerch or landing operations along black sea coasts and converge with Turkish forces in theatre. However the exact influences are largely marginal. Even if the central Asia corridor is opened the strategic value will be significantly less than the potential to knock Soviet Union out of the war
Landing on Crimea is not the best idea actually, have my doubts on that approach.
Will move divisions to the Belarusian front or even Baltic for future operations in July-August.