Xarkan, if you could wait before handing them out until after AVN tells us what the result of his scan was, that would be great
Kingepyon supported the mission.
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Kingepyon supported the mission.
<3.
So that leaves us randy, cliges and cymsdale as the people who could have sabotaged.
For the record - I support AVN for any future team.
Or not
Well, I'll wait until AVN gets back to us before voting on this one.
My bad, I left my reply in the box while I ate dinner and then submitted.
It all turned out ok. You gave in the spotlight to AVN, whose pretty much the only player (other than myself, obviously) who I think can be trusted with it.
Can't say much about the team, though
So list of potential spies:
randakar, tamius, esemesas - 1 of them (accepted: 5-3, Cymsdale, randakar, kingepyon rejected) Proposed by esemesas
Randakar, cliges, cymsdale - 1 of them (Accepted 6-2, tamius, AVN rejected) Proposed by randakar
tamius23, esemesas, Cliges and Xarkan - rejected 8-0 Proposed by tamius
Kingepyon, Cymsdale, AVN and Xarkan - rejected 5-3 (tamius, randakar initially, then esemesas, AVN, and Kingepyon rejected) Proposed by Kingepyon
esemesas gave cards to: "No Confidence" - Cliges, "Keeping a Close eye on you" - AVN
Tamius gave cards to: "Strong Leader" - Kingepyon, "No Confidence" - Xarkan
Xarkan gave cards to: "Strong Leader" - Cymsdale, "In the Spotlight" - AVN
Current vote - Xarkan, AVN, Cymsdale, Kingepyon Proposed by Xarkan
randakar, tamius, esemesas - 1 of them (accepted: 5-3, Cymsdale, randakar, kingepyon rejected) Proposed by esemesas
Randakar, cliges, cymsdale - 1 of them (Accepted 6-2, tamius, AVN rejected) Proposed by randakar
tamius23, esemesas, Cliges and Xarkan - rejected 8-0 Proposed by tamius
Kingepyon, Cymsdale, AVN and Xarkan - rejected 5-3 (tamius, randakar initially, then esemesas, AVN, and Kingepyon rejected) Proposed by Kingepyon
esemesas gave cards to: "No Confidence" - Cliges, "Keeping a Close eye on you" - AVN
Tamius gave cards to: "Strong Leader" - Kingepyon, "No Confidence" - Xarkan
Xarkan gave cards to: "Strong Leader" - Cymsdale, "In the Spotlight" - AVN
Current vote - Xarkan, AVN, Cymsdale, Kingepyon Proposed by Xarkan
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I'm actually thinking that randakar is a spy, and have for awhile. I said that I had an off feeling about him some pages back, should anyone care to look. And it's (obviously) statistically more likely than any other player, given he was the only crew member on both teams.
Let's assume randakar is a spy.
How would randakar the spy create his team? Would he put other spies on it? Probably not, the spies can't communicate by PM, so unless there's some code in the post spam, there's no real way to communicate. So chances are he doesn't put a spy on his team. So that leaves Myself, Cymsdale and Cliges clear. If we add AVN to that, that clears 4 people. That leaves 1 more. Since both tamius and esemesas are on the first team with randakar, that means that 1 out of the two isn't a spy, and the other is.
Well esemesas made that team. Why would esemesas put another spy on the same team as him? If something went poorly wrong and both decided to sabotage, that's really bad for the spies. So we're left with tamius as the spy. So now we have tamius, Xarkan, and randakar as the spies. With myself, Cymsdale, Cliges, esmesas, and AVN clear.
But then the issue arises, how did tamius and randakar only sabotage the first mission once? Dumb luck? Not sabotaging the first mission is a viable strategy, and there is a 50% chance (assuming both players felt the same about the options) that it would happen, so it's down to a coin flip, lucky for the spies, but not the most likely of scenarios. So if we assume randakar is the spy, we know who the other spies are, we just need to fail this team, and Cliges can pick any combination of those 5.
How would randakar the spy create his team? Would he put other spies on it? Probably not, the spies can't communicate by PM, so unless there's some code in the post spam, there's no real way to communicate. So chances are he doesn't put a spy on his team. So that leaves Myself, Cymsdale and Cliges clear. If we add AVN to that, that clears 4 people. That leaves 1 more. Since both tamius and esemesas are on the first team with randakar, that means that 1 out of the two isn't a spy, and the other is.
Well esemesas made that team. Why would esemesas put another spy on the same team as him? If something went poorly wrong and both decided to sabotage, that's really bad for the spies. So we're left with tamius as the spy. So now we have tamius, Xarkan, and randakar as the spies. With myself, Cymsdale, Cliges, esmesas, and AVN clear.
But then the issue arises, how did tamius and randakar only sabotage the first mission once? Dumb luck? Not sabotaging the first mission is a viable strategy, and there is a 50% chance (assuming both players felt the same about the options) that it would happen, so it's down to a coin flip, lucky for the spies, but not the most likely of scenarios. So if we assume randakar is the spy, we know who the other spies are, we just need to fail this team, and Cliges can pick any combination of those 5.
On a somewhat optimistic note: if the next mission does work, the spies need two sabotages to defeat the mission after that. So, if we win this one, the next does have some slight room for error on the part of the true resistance.
And having the spies know each other does seem to skew things in their favor more than the previous game.
And having the spies know each other does seem to skew things in their favor more than the previous game.
Assuming tamius is a spy is also easy, let's do that.
If tamius was a spy, he (like randakar) likely wouldn't put another spy on his team, for fear of both players sabotaging. This means that esemesas, Cliges and Xarkan (who were on his team) are clear, as well as myself and AVN (I'm taking liberties with myself here, cause I know I'm not a spy) which leaves randakar, and Cymsdale as spies to go along with tamius.
Which gives me the same issue with tamius as I had with randakar being a spy. The coin flip to determine the sabotage. However, this result does provide ample reasoning as to why randakar and Cymsdale would reject a team that they have spies on - there are two of them. However, either tamius doesn't catch on, or doesn't care as he still approves the team - when he has the deciding vote.
Safe to say, likely not those three.
Based on previous assumptions, I'd argue that esemesas is the spy, and randakar and tamius are clear.
Following this arguement, the safest team right now would be: randakar, kingepyon, AVN, tamius.
If tamius was a spy, he (like randakar) likely wouldn't put another spy on his team, for fear of both players sabotaging. This means that esemesas, Cliges and Xarkan (who were on his team) are clear, as well as myself and AVN (I'm taking liberties with myself here, cause I know I'm not a spy) which leaves randakar, and Cymsdale as spies to go along with tamius.
Which gives me the same issue with tamius as I had with randakar being a spy. The coin flip to determine the sabotage. However, this result does provide ample reasoning as to why randakar and Cymsdale would reject a team that they have spies on - there are two of them. However, either tamius doesn't catch on, or doesn't care as he still approves the team - when he has the deciding vote.
Safe to say, likely not those three.
Based on previous assumptions, I'd argue that esemesas is the spy, and randakar and tamius are clear.
Following this arguement, the safest team right now would be: randakar, kingepyon, AVN, tamius.
So if esemesas is a spy, and randakar is not, that leaves us cliges or Cymsdale as the spy from sabotage group 2 - but likely not both. This also leaves Xarkan as a spy.
I REJECT this team.
I REJECT this team.
My own analysis (it's slightly different from Kingepyon's analysis).
I start with the following 2 assumptions :
A) If the leader is a spy he will only propose resistance members for his mission team.
B) Both missions had only 1 spy. (this assumption will be changed later on).
There are 3 situations possible now :
1) Randy was the spy on the first mission. This clears esemesas and tamius. But also Cliges, Cymsdale and Kingepyon, because randy wouldn't choose spies in his mission team.
The conclusion is that Randy, Xarkan and me are the spies, which is impossible because I'm resistance.
2) Tamius was the spy on the first mission. This clears esemesas and randy. But also Cliges and Xarkan (tamius's choices for his team). And of course Kingepyon is cleared, because he supported the last mission. This gives tamius, Cymsdale and me as the spies. Again impossible.
3) Esemesas was the spy on the first mission. This clears tamius and randy. Of course Kingepyon is cleared again because he supported the last mission.
That leaves Cymsdale/Cliges as one possible spy/resistance pair. And Xarkan/me as the other spy/resistance pair. Because I'm not a spy, Xarkan is one.
So based on above assumptions we get :
Resistance : tamius, randy, Kingepyon, AVN
Spies : esemesas, Xarkan
Unclear : Cymsdale/Cliges (although based an arguements used earlier in the thread I think that Cliges is the spy).
But I wonder if there was really only one spy on the last mission. Not that I expect that randy would choose spies in his team if he was a spy. (I still will use the assumption that a spy-leader will only choose resistance members). What if there were two spies in the last mission ?
In that case we have to consider two options :
1) tamius was the spy on the first mission. Clearing esemesas and randy.
That means that. That means that two of the following three are spies : Cliges, Cymsdale and Kingepyon.
But tamius proposed Cliges as team member and Kingepyon proposed Cymsdale. Conclusion this situation is impossible.
2) esemesas was the spy on the first mission. Clearing tamius and randy.
Again we get that two out of the following three are spies : Cliges, Cymsdale and Kingepyon.
Because Kingepyon proposed Cymsdale for his team the only valid spy combinations for this situation are :
Cliges/Kingepyon and
Cliges/Cymsdale.
So in case there were two spies on the second mission we get :
Resistance : randy, tamius, Xarkan, AVN
Spies : esemesas, Cliges
Unclear : Cymsdale, Kingepyon
I'm not sure yet which assumption is better (one or two spies on the second mission). But in both cases randy, tamius and me are part of the resistance and IMO should go on the next mission.
Therefore I REJECT Xarkan's proposal.
I start with the following 2 assumptions :
A) If the leader is a spy he will only propose resistance members for his mission team.
B) Both missions had only 1 spy. (this assumption will be changed later on).
There are 3 situations possible now :
1) Randy was the spy on the first mission. This clears esemesas and tamius. But also Cliges, Cymsdale and Kingepyon, because randy wouldn't choose spies in his mission team.
The conclusion is that Randy, Xarkan and me are the spies, which is impossible because I'm resistance.
2) Tamius was the spy on the first mission. This clears esemesas and randy. But also Cliges and Xarkan (tamius's choices for his team). And of course Kingepyon is cleared, because he supported the last mission. This gives tamius, Cymsdale and me as the spies. Again impossible.
3) Esemesas was the spy on the first mission. This clears tamius and randy. Of course Kingepyon is cleared again because he supported the last mission.
That leaves Cymsdale/Cliges as one possible spy/resistance pair. And Xarkan/me as the other spy/resistance pair. Because I'm not a spy, Xarkan is one.
So based on above assumptions we get :
Resistance : tamius, randy, Kingepyon, AVN
Spies : esemesas, Xarkan
Unclear : Cymsdale/Cliges (although based an arguements used earlier in the thread I think that Cliges is the spy).
But I wonder if there was really only one spy on the last mission. Not that I expect that randy would choose spies in his team if he was a spy. (I still will use the assumption that a spy-leader will only choose resistance members). What if there were two spies in the last mission ?
In that case we have to consider two options :
1) tamius was the spy on the first mission. Clearing esemesas and randy.
That means that. That means that two of the following three are spies : Cliges, Cymsdale and Kingepyon.
But tamius proposed Cliges as team member and Kingepyon proposed Cymsdale. Conclusion this situation is impossible.
2) esemesas was the spy on the first mission. Clearing tamius and randy.
Again we get that two out of the following three are spies : Cliges, Cymsdale and Kingepyon.
Because Kingepyon proposed Cymsdale for his team the only valid spy combinations for this situation are :
Cliges/Kingepyon and
Cliges/Cymsdale.
So in case there were two spies on the second mission we get :
Resistance : randy, tamius, Xarkan, AVN
Spies : esemesas, Cliges
Unclear : Cymsdale, Kingepyon
I'm not sure yet which assumption is better (one or two spies on the second mission). But in both cases randy, tamius and me are part of the resistance and IMO should go on the next mission.
Therefore I REJECT Xarkan's proposal.
One of Xarkan or AVN is VERY likely to be a spy and they're both on the team.
REJECT
REJECT
Does the GM confirm the card results?
Randakar is probably a spy who put me on team two so I could no longer plead that I couldn't be directly tied to any failures. (more or less what I had feared all along)
But I'm also going to reject the team on the basis that it's somewhat unlikely that Xarkan has managed to put together a 4 man group that includes all of the true resistance minus myself. And any one vote could sabotage the mission and end the game, unless for some strange reason the spies just want to play with our heads and let us win 1 single mission.
reject
Randakar is probably a spy who put me on team two so I could no longer plead that I couldn't be directly tied to any failures. (more or less what I had feared all along)
But I'm also going to reject the team on the basis that it's somewhat unlikely that Xarkan has managed to put together a 4 man group that includes all of the true resistance minus myself. And any one vote could sabotage the mission and end the game, unless for some strange reason the spies just want to play with our heads and let us win 1 single mission.
reject
I expected the GM would mention the result in public. But (IMO) surprisingly he didn't
And now I have given the result he can't do it anymore.
Unless he wants to influence the game ...
While the use of the cards is made public, the results are very rarely made public.
In the RL game, this card allows the player to examine someone's Mission Card, but they're not allowed to reveal it for all to see.
In the RL game, this card allows the player to examine someone's Mission Card, but they're not allowed to reveal it for all to see.
This plot result is private, which means avn and kingpeyon could be playing you guys for fools.
I also think the "spy would never propose another spy on his team" is too much too assume. It certainly makes analysis much cleaner, but a smart spy would know that. That's why I said that if Ese is a spy, there is a fair chance he threw another spy on his team and supported the team.
I also think the "spy would never propose another spy on his team" is too much too assume. It certainly makes analysis much cleaner, but a smart spy would know that. That's why I said that if Ese is a spy, there is a fair chance he threw another spy on his team and supported the team.
We are in an awkward and dangerous situation here because of the following facts:
* If we have a single spy on the approved team, we will lose the game.
* Because of the above, a player is extremely likely to approve of a team they are not a part of.
* An approval requires 5 votes, meaning the most likely situation is a team will be forced because we are run up against the wall.
* Where that wall is exactly, is unknown, since there are STILL two no confidence cards out there!
There is a silver lining in all this. If the team succeeds, not only do we avoid an immediate loss, we effectively clear four players at once, meaning we leap frog from very likely to lose to very likely to win.
I think we can mitigate the damage of these points by being smart about our team proposals, and it's unfortunate that Xarkan made his so lightly.
There are 5 possible combinations that can succeed, but it's not enough for one of those 5 to be proposed. The proposal must be acceptable to all the members currently on it AND it must be acceptable to the resistance member that gets left behind. I suggest that before we do any voting, everyone suggests a team that they are willing to approve of *that they are not on*, and if we can build a consensus, we can avoid a situation of having the auto-approved team be in the hands of a random person (who might even be a spy).
What do you all think?
* If we have a single spy on the approved team, we will lose the game.
* Because of the above, a player is extremely likely to approve of a team they are not a part of.
* An approval requires 5 votes, meaning the most likely situation is a team will be forced because we are run up against the wall.
* Where that wall is exactly, is unknown, since there are STILL two no confidence cards out there!
There is a silver lining in all this. If the team succeeds, not only do we avoid an immediate loss, we effectively clear four players at once, meaning we leap frog from very likely to lose to very likely to win.
I think we can mitigate the damage of these points by being smart about our team proposals, and it's unfortunate that Xarkan made his so lightly.
There are 5 possible combinations that can succeed, but it's not enough for one of those 5 to be proposed. The proposal must be acceptable to all the members currently on it AND it must be acceptable to the resistance member that gets left behind. I suggest that before we do any voting, everyone suggests a team that they are willing to approve of *that they are not on*, and if we can build a consensus, we can avoid a situation of having the auto-approved team be in the hands of a random person (who might even be a spy).
What do you all think?
This game seems fun. I like the idea of not being able to die, since there's no reason to keep quiet, and poor play isn't rewarded.