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[Resistance] Game 2 - Down with Werewolf!

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I think Cymsdale is the only one who hasn't voted on the team yet.

And working on the assumption that ese is a spy:

AVN, Kingepyon
AVN, Cliges
AVN, Cymsdale
AVN, randakar

randakar, Cliges
randakar, Cymsdale
randakar, kingepyon
randakar, Xarkan
randakar, AVN

tamius, Cliges
tamius, Cymsdale

Kingepyon, Cliges
Kingepyon, Cymsdale
Kingepyon, AVN
Kingepyon, randakar

Xarkan, randakar
Xarkan, Cliges
Xarkan, Cymsdale

Cymsdale, AVN
Cymsdale, randakar
Cymsdale, tamius
Cymsdale, Xarkan
Cymsdale, Kingepyon

Cliges, AVN
Cliges, randakar
Cliges, tamius
Cliges, Xarkan
Cliges, Kingepyon

these are the possible combinations, by player.
 
Cliges said:
GM has the final say-so, but I wouldn't want to piss off anyone who genuinely sees a rules issues here, rather than making the use before a vote a tactical issue. In any case, I'll use it now if allowed.
Click to expand...

The thing is, in the RL game, there's no reason you can't announce your use of your card in advance. So I'm okay with you announcing it now, it's just that, if the team isn't approved anyway, then you don't use the card.
 
OK, the forum was quite unreachable in the last few hours. So maybe that's the reason why this game has stalled.
But is there any other reason why we can't move to the next phase, with a new leader ?
 
AVN said:
If I understand the rules correctly Cliges can only reject approved teams with his card.
So it will be difficult for him to reject the current proposal by using his card ...
Click to expand...

Oh.
Right.
That's a bloody nuisance, then. We can't even force him to use that ability on a fail team without risking him *not* using his card. :(
edit: There's something to say for it game-rules wise, it just sucks for the resistance right now ..

Kingepyon said:
Under the assumption of a spy leader choosing a second spy:

If esemesas and tamius are spies. That leaves Cliges and Cymsdale as candidates for a spy.
Click to expand...

Let's not rule out AVN here. Just because he says you supported doesn't mean he isn't trying to carry favor with you.
(And in fact, even if you supported, doesn't mean you're not a spy ..)

Kingepyon said:
If esemesas and randakar are spies, that leaves any number of people. In this case, everyone is a possible spy, depending on if spy randy decided to put another spy on his team or not.
Click to expand...

Yeah, well. I've been arguing against esemesas for most of the game now, haven't I?

AVN said:
OK, the forum was quite unreachable in the last few hours. So maybe that's the reason why this game has stalled.
But is there any other reason why we can't move to the next phase, with a new leader ?
Click to expand...

Plot card discussion, I guess.

edit:

Ok, so if I follow Cymsdale's post, and ignore his "I'm not a spy" thing, let's see what combinations we get:

List of players:
1. esemesas (E)
2. tamius23 (T)
3. Kingepyon (K)
4. randakar (R)
5. Xarkan (X)
6. Cliges (C)
7. Cymsdale (Y)
8. AVN (A)

Cymsdale's spy team list before the part where he removes every combination with himself in it:

ETK ETR ETC ETY EKR
EKX EKC EKY EKA ERX
ERC ERY ERA EXC EXY
ECY ECA EYA TKR TKX
TKC TKY TKA TRX TRC
TRY TRA TXC TXY TCY
TCA TYA KRX KRC KRY
KRA RXC RXY RXA RCY
RCA RYA

Assumption 1, If Ese (E) was a spy, he would not have given the "keeping a close eye on you" card to a resistance member. Therefore, any combination that as an E, must have an A:

EKA ERA ECA EYA TKR
TKX TKC TKY TKA TRX
TRC TRY TRA TXC TXY
TCY TCA TYA KRX KRC
KRY KRA RXC RXY RXA
RCY RCA RYA

Assumption 2, if Tamius (T) is a spy, he would not have proposed a team with all three spies on it for day 2. His proposal was T, E, C, X.

EKA ERA ECA EYA TKR
TKX TKC TKY TKA TRX
TRC TRY TRA TXY TCY
TCA TYA KRX KRC KRY
KRA RXC RXY RXA RCY
RCA RYA

Assumption 3, if Kingepyon (K) was a spy, he likewise would not propose a 3-spy team. his proposal was K, Y, A, X

EKA ERA ECA EYA TKR
TKX TKC TKY TKA TRX
TRC TRY TRA TXY TCY
TCA TYA KRX KRC KRY
KRA RXC RXY RXA RCY
RCA RYA

Assumption 4, same as above with Randy's (R) proposal R, C, Y or K

EKA ERA ECA EYA TKR
TKX TKC TKY TKA TRX
TRC TRY TRA TXY TCY
TCA TYA KRX KRA RXC
RXY RXA RCA RYA

If kingepyon is a spy AVN is also a spy, OR there was a second spy in the set RCYK. (This is indisputable, I think.)
Remove every combination that does not pair K with at least one of ARCY.

@Cymsdale - your final analysis violates this rule.
One of your wild assumptions is false - or you are a spy :)

EKA ERA ECA EYA TKR
TKC TKY TKA TRX TRC
TRY TRA TXY TCY TCA
TYA KRX KRA RXC RXY
RXA RCA RYA

That's as far as I get right now.
As the *final* step, I remove myself. I have kept that for last, so that other people can duplicate this for themselves.

EKA ECA EYA TKC TKY
TKA TXY TCY TCA TYA

Now, let's count, for each player, how many combinations that player fits into:

List of players:
1. esemesas (E) - 3 times
2. tamius23 (T) - 7 times
3. Kingepyon (K) - 4 times
4. randakar (R) - 0 times .. :p
5. Xarkan (X) - 1 times
6. Cliges (C) - 3 times
7. Cymsdale (Y) - 5 times
8. AVN (A) - 6 times

Now that's very interesting, isn't it? I had tamius as unlikely, but he fits quite a lot of combinations of potential spy teams ..
 
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Time to move on, yes. Although you could've done that yourselves :happy:

Team is rejected 7 votes to 1, only vote in favor was Xarkan's own.

Cliges wanted to use his card but couldn't.

Next Leader is Cliges himself, we eagerly await your proposal.
 
@Cliges: I'd highly recommend you take the method above and apply it for yourself. At the very least, it should be informative.

Also:
I wonder what happens if we bring vote analysis into it as well.

I am down to 10 combinations. Would spies vote against proposals from fellow spies?
Probably, if they think it's a bad proposal for their side. Or if they think they can win on rejections..
Hrm.
 
randakar said:
If kingepyon is a spy AVN is also a spy, OR there was a second spy in the set RCYK. (This is indisputable, I think.)
Remove every combination that does not pair K with at least one of ARCY.
Click to expand...

Yes, this is indisputable, and my analysis missed it. It's not an assumption, it deserves to be put back at the top with the facts. (Because AVN being a resistance member, witnessing a sabotage, and reporting it as a support makes absolutely no sense). So if K is a spy, then A,R,C or Y must be paired with him.

Applying that to my set pre-wild-assumption actually removes my final result:

EKA ERA ECA
TKR TKX TKC
TKA TRX TRC TRA
TCA KRX KRA RXC
RXA RCA

If Randakar was a spy, I don't think he would have pointed out this mistake, so I'm going to keep this wild assumption (that he isn't one), and not only that, upgrade it to a no-so-wild-assumption:
All, R's removed:

EKA ECA
TKC TKA TCA

This final set clears Xarkan! Unfortunately, 5 combinations is a lot more than 1...

Presence:

E - 2
K - 3
A - 4
C - 3
T - 3

If AVN was cleared, there would be only one combination left (TKC), unfortunately, I have no basis to assume he is a resistance member. If I was going to clear anyone left based on assumption, it would be Cliges. I know I gave him a hard time about the card thing, but I think his response to that was more "dumb resistance" than "spy". If we remove him we end up with:

EKA TKA

That leaves us with a coin flip. Is the last spy Ese or Tamius?

Fortunately, we could build a team with neither of them.

So that leaves me with two questions I'd like to see a direct response to:

Question 1:

Ese, would you be willing to vote yes to a randakar, Xarkan, Cliges, Cymsdale proposal?

Question 2:

Tamius, would you be willing to vote yes to a randakar, Xarkan, Cliges, Cymsdale proposal?

I await your responses with great interest. :)
 
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No, I would not support that team. The only change from the previous approved team is Xarkan on for Kingepyon. And that team got sabotaged, so it's a VERY high risk you're suggesting. Consider two scenarios:

1)Kingepyon is a spy who supported the mission and AVN is a clueless resistance member. Maybe he wanted to clear himself somewhat, maybe there were two spies(it is possible even if randy isn't a spy) and they got lucky so that only one of them sabotaged. It's a little far-fetched, I know.

2) Kingepyon is a resistance member and AVN is a spy who used his card and provided the result to gain trust. A scenario which is more likely. I mean, if a spy were to lie and say "Player X is the one who sabotaged", Player X would, naturally, call him out on it, causing BOTH of them to lose confidence. The smarter move is being honets in an attempt for both of them to gain confidence.

So your grouping of AVN and Kinge together as spies is flawed. Not only is it flawed, it is dangerous for the resistance.

But why should I care, I'm a spy according to you guys. One criticism I can give for this game is that once you get a strong suspicion on you, a part of the game gets taken away from you. I can't be on teams and I don't get any cards, which is kinda lame :/
 
Same here.

I merely have Xarkan as very unlikely, rather than cleared.
So yeah - definitely put him in there.
Not too sure about this Cymsdale fellow, though. :eek:

As for tamius / esemesas - well, one of them is a spy, and I'm sure they both agree with us that the other person is probably a spy :p


esemesas said:
No, I would not support that team. The only change from the previous approved team is Xarkan on for Kingepyon. And that team got sabotaged, so it's a VERY high risk you're suggesting. Consider two scenarios:

1)Kingepyon is a spy who supported the mission and AVN is a clueless resistance member. Maybe he wanted to clear himself somewhat, maybe there were two spies(it is possible even if randy isn't a spy) and they got lucky so that only one of them sabotaged. It's a little far-fetched, I know.

2) Kingepyon is a resistance member and AVN is a spy who used his card and provided the result to gain trust. A scenario which is more likely. I mean, if a spy were to lie and say "Player X is the one who sabotaged", Player X would, naturally, call him out on it, causing BOTH of them to lose confidence. The smarter move is being honets in an attempt for both of them to gain confidence.

So your grouping of AVN and Kinge together as spies is flawed. Not only is it flawed, it is dangerous for the resistance.

But why should I care, I'm a spy according to you guys. One criticism I can give for this game is that once you get a strong suspicion on you, a part of the game gets taken away from you. I can't be on teams and I don't get any cards, which is kinda lame :/
Click to expand...

It ain't over till it's over ..
Let's say that you are correct: Put in the assumption that if AVN is a spy, Kingepyon is not.

Before I removed myself from the list, I got to this list:

EKA ERA ECA EYA TKR
TKC TKY TKA TRX TRC
TRY TRA TXY TCY TCA
TYA KRX KRA RXC RXY
RXA RCA RYA

Removing all combinations of K and A will get us:

ERA ECA EYA TKR TKC
TKY TRX TRC TRY TRA
TXY TCY TCA TYA KRX
RXC RXY RXA RCA RYA

Removing myself:
ECA EYA TKC TKY TXY
TCY TCA TYA

.. that brings me down to 7 8 combinations ..

a: 4
c: 4
e: 2
k: 2
t: 6
x: 1
y: 5

Hmm. Lots of T and Y there.
 
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Your scenarios are factored into my analysis. Did you not read it, or just not understand it?

Listen, at this point the only way to win is for all the members of the resistance to man up and stand behind *something*. So anyone pulling "oh woe is me you all think I'm a spy, there's no way to win" is not being helpful.

If you really are resistance, and you can't contribute anything more than this, then we lost. If you are a spy, you're just making noise.

Assuming the game is unwinnable is a self-fulfilling prophecy, so I'm going to go with the latter.

EDIT: To be clear, my response is to Ese. Randakar ninjaed me.
 
:ninja:
 
Briefly here randakar, it is, I admit, somewhat like werewolf to want to be "clear" but that's not entirely what I was going for. If the first two failed, and had two totally different sets of players, that at least makes the one guy who's been excluded less likely to be a spy, regardless of who he is. Even had it not been me, it could have been anyone else not on team 1. In fact, that would have made my own analysis easier, because I can already rule out myself. Of course, actually winning missions is a greater priority, but how's that been working out?

Anyhow, I'm in extreme pain right now, which really isn't germane to the game itself, but is distracting to the extent that I'm not much in the frame of mind of offering much in the way of any serious analysis or pattern combinations at the moment.

But, before I formally suggest any team, who refuses to accept whom on ANY teams, and why?




But why should I care, I'm a spy according to you guys. One criticism I can give for this game is that once you get a strong suspicion on you, a part of the game gets taken away from you. I can't be on teams and I don't get any cards, which is kinda lame :/
Click to expand...

If you really are resistance, and you can't contribute anything more than this, then we lost. If you are a spy, you're just making noise.
Click to expand...

I can empathize with ese to an extent. AVN, whatever his real affiliation, does seem to have entirely come out against me and king, xarc, and even ese himself are at least suspicious. Hence, if you see such a level of mistrust against you, it does make it hard to feel like it's even worth the time to bother to do or say anything knowing that it might be considered suspect or pointless. I do think it's winnable, though.

Maybe I am wrong to suspect randakar, but if I put him on a team and it loses, and the game is lost on his account, I will feel like a supreme idiot for not going with that initial instinct.


. If I was going to clear anyone left based on assumption, it would be Cliges. I know I gave him a hard time about the card thing, but I think his response to that was more "dumb resistance" than "spy". If we remove him we end up with:
Click to expand...

It's late enough in the game that I might as well put all the cards on the table: I feared more than anything that a spy or spies wanted it used before it could used against them and I felt that it might be necessary to make it clear that I wouldn't be bullyragged into taking orders.

Actually, I had no serious intentions of ever using it at all, because, after all, assuming I didn't like a team and voted against it, it still needs 5/8 to pass-meaning that with that level of support, the next guy could just propose the same team and have it pass the next round.
 
randakar said:
Let's say that you are correct: Put in the assumption that if AVN is a spy, Kingepyon is not.
Click to expand...

I'm sorry, I just don't agree with this assumption at all.

I see no logical reason they can't both be spies.

EDIT: You're using a logical fallacy here. You present two scenarios that have only one of them be a spy, and then somehow conclude that only those scenarios are possible.

So allow me to present scenario 3:

They are both spies. Kingpeyon sabotaged the mission, AVN used the card to "clear" his teammate by telling us he didn't.

How is this scenario unlikely? It seems like it would be a textbook play.
 
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A few days ago Cymsdale asked to propose a team in which the proposer himself wasn't included.
IMO a difficult question, because everyone wants to be in the mission team.
But after giving this some more thought I think I have found such a team now.

According my analysis the following persons are more or less likely spies : esemesas, Xarkan and Cliges.
That leaves 5 potential players for the team. Because I can't choose myself 4 are left, namely randy, tamius, Cymsdale and Kingepyon.
I will approve that team.
Not that I will reject other teams directly (I really have to think about that more), but I will accept the above team, if I'm not allowed to make myself a candidate.
 
Cymsdale said:
I'm sorry, I just don't agree with this assumption at all.

I see no logical reason they can't both be spies.

EDIT: You're using a logical fallacy here. You present two scenarios that have only one of them be a spy, and then somehow conclude that only those scenarios are possible.

So allow me to present scenario 3:

They are both spies. Kingpeyon sabotaged the mission, AVN used the card to "clear" his teammate by telling us he didn't.

How is this scenario unlikely? It seems like it would be a textbook play.
Click to expand...

4. Both are goodies.
 
AVN said:
A few days ago Cymsdale asked to propose a team in which the proposer himself wasn't included.
IMO a difficult question, because everyone wants to be in the mission team.
But after giving this some more thought I think I have found such a team now.

According my analysis the following persons are more or less likely spies : esemesas, Xarkan and Cliges.
That leaves 5 potential players for the team. Because I can't choose myself 4 are left, namely randy, tamius, Cymsdale and Kingepyon.
I will approve that team.
Not that I will reject other teams directly (I really have to think about that more), but I will accept the above team, if I'm not allowed to make myself a candidate.
Click to expand...

Thee only person that I can be entirely sure is not a spy is myself, so at this point, I know I can get that freebie in proposing my team; it would be foolhardy to ignore it. It's not even "selfishness" on my part, but I'm not going to take any risks that I can avoid.

Unless you're honestly mistaken, the rest of your list is a bit suspicious, too. Though, if you are a spy, and I'm somewhat more inclined in that direction than not, you might have included another spy on your list to throw off the scent.
 
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