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Thinking: if their hit rate is a lot lower than expected, is it possible that their targeting is less effective than we had assumed, despite being so long ranged? Are we perhaps over estimating them based on a very high speed when in other areas they aren’t as good as us?
 
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That would also force them to come after you and without missiles, being forced to the engagement… wouldn’t the problem there be STO on Mechanus though?
We can knock the shipyards out from beyond PD range.

A Fighter strike, for example.



Thinking: if their hit rate is a lot lower than expected, is it possible that their targeting is less effective than we had assumed, despite being so long ranged? Are we perhaps over estimating them based on a very high speed when in other areas they aren’t as good as us?

Certainly our own missiles have a far higher hit rate.
 
Much depends on just what shape our force is in five or six salvos from now.

It might be wrecked. Or it might be in relatively good shape.
 
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Rather than take out the shipyards, would a mass planetary bombardment with the missiles to render it uninhabitable be a better option? Brutal, but as they are essentially one planet…
 
Rather than take out the shipyards, would a mass planetary bombardment with the missiles to render it uninhabitable be a better option? Brutal, but as they are essentially one planet…
Why not both?

We have ten (?) Carriers present, each holding somewhere near 30 Fighters.

And the Emotions can duel with modest amounts of STO, by backing out of range when their shield gets low.

Too much STO might overwhelm their shields and kill them in a single round, of course.
 
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Why not both?

We have ten (?) Carriers present, each holding somewhere near 30 Fighters.

And the Emotions can duel with modest amounts of STO, by backing out of range when their shield gets low.

Too much STO might overwhelm their shields and kill them in a single round, of course.
It would save the game though.
 
Two points to taking out the shipyards:

1) It will also destroy any ships currently under construction or in refit.
2) The shipyards can be rebuilt, but will start at minimum size (1,000 tons) and it will be years before they can build large ships.

Regarding the Armageddon option:

Certainly worth doing with the remaining missiles once the shipyards are destroyed, but it will probably be rather less effective than you assume.

Against a Prix or Rakhsha planet (was it in Lalande 21185?), a full 2,000-3,000 points worth of missile damage created a nuclear winter that raised the colony cost by about 4 or 5 points. If the planet didn't have spare infrastructure (which they might indeed have on their home world, to send out to colonies) that will cause a gradual die-off in the civilian population. But presumably they'll switch their factory production to infrastructure before very many pops die?
 
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How can we salvage it?
Well, already their hit percentages are lower than expected so it is possible that Emu can survive this attack. Even if he loses this fleet, he can build a new one since Earth is safe. Stopping the NPR through repeated JP ambushes is a classic tactic that almost always works. Even if everything else is lost, building missile fighters on Earth is fast and can be done to drive away their main fleet, buying time to rebuild. This is more likely to be a Dunkirk moment, not Stalingrad.

NPRs are not good at rebuilding their fleets once they have lost the initial ships they have so a human always has the advantage as long as your industrial base is intact. The only situation which cannot be recovered from is losing your industrial base, whether it's Earth or something else. The games that I've personally 'lost' were situations where Invaders and Swarm reached Earth. Both of those games would've made for depressing apocalypse movies!
 
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Well, already their hit percentages are lower than expected...
It occurs to me now that those stats "seven hits, forty-eight misses" might be off since overkill missiles are counted as "misses" because the target no longer exists.
 
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Rather than take out the shipyards, would a mass planetary bombardment with the missiles to render it uninhabitable be a better option? Brutal, but as they are essentially one planet…
Since shipyards are orbital installations they are easier to destroy than industry. And given the size reset, I'd think that is enough. I'd rather kill their fleet with that ammo.

It occurs to me now that those stats "seven hits, forty-eight misses" might be off since overkill missiles are counted as "misses" because the target no longer exists.
Makes sense. They didn't expect that base to be a soft target.

55 ish missiles getting through is about 1000 damage. That is enough to kill most of our ships. But.. just one. If it's going to be one wave, one kill they will need dozens of these salvos to really hurt us. And hopefully they are underestimating our PD and spreading the love amongst multiple targets.
 
It occurs to me now that those stats "seven hits, forty-eight misses" might be off since overkill missiles are counted as "misses" because the target no longer exists.
Dang, and here I was hoping their Bureau of Ordinances had done like the US one.
 
Rather than take out the shipyards, would a mass planetary bombardment with the missiles to render it uninhabitable be a better option? Brutal, but as they are essentially one planet…
Wouldn't we want to take their planet, though?
 
Wouldn't we want to take their planet, though?
If we could destroy their fleet and prevent them from rebuilding it, then we can take their planet in due course.

Perhaps after the nuclear winter ends.
 
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I think their existing fleet should be the first priority for now. If we can retreat to a jump point - any jump point - we should use that to set up an ambush.

Shipyards are good to wreck and that will set them back decades. But secondary. And after that, the planet is for invading.
 
If they run out of missiles and we can destroy everything they have in orbit, can’t we effectively grind out a victory by simply keeping them from ever building any orbital facilities to repair, rebuild, or rearm fleets?

I thought the Armageddon option would push the habitability much further out, resulting in a fairly rapid population crash: Xenocide in other words.