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Interesting. The Soviets following this plan basically cede the Pacific, all of it, to US sphere of influence. They must either not care at all about asia outside of China or think the US will either lose their grip, bubgle the job or just lose interest after the war.
Let's be real here, the Soviet Union does not have the navy to control the Pacific. As for China, I expect that China will be a quagmire for the US troops, and that a Communist takeover might be in the cards, so not too many worries there. After all, the Communist Chinese already exist, and the Nationalists have been weakened by their fight against Japan. Ideally, we should get the Communist Chinese into the Comintern ahead of time, so that whomever controls China at the time of the final negotiations, it will be the Communist Chinese who have the best claim to it.
Going out on a limb, but an outcome that could be interesting here, is for the US to take Japan and all of it's Pacific holdings, and maybe bits of SE-Asia, while Communism triumphs in most of mainland Asia, especially China, and eventually India as well. If Turkey sticks with the Soviet Union during post-war negotiations, and once the inevitable split with the US occurs, there may be some significant territory in the cards for them. Maybe Pakistan, and some SE-Asian holdings, we've noted your interest in Indochina... why not. What about Sri Lanka? Giving Turkey the ability to project power around the world (without giving them so much that they can easily become stronger than the motherland, of course) would definitely help the Comintern to keep/gain the upper hand in a cold war, or 3rd world war scenario against the US... Turkey's sacrifices in the Great Patriotic War will not be forgotten, unless they betray the trust the Soviet Union put in them. (All of this is basically the Soviet Union trying to try and avoid that Turkey starts playing the US against the USSR in negotiations, or worse, that Turkey would take the USs side...)
What, Turkey just takes over every single trouble region in the world? Sure, why not?
Seriously though, I think that Afghanistan or parts of what would be Pakistan should be the Turks limit, for now. Far too much on our plate just with that, rebuilding the balkans, romania, modernising arabia and getting a fleet together to dominate the med, north africa and the Turkish Gulf.
Seriously, look at that monster of a task list. It's all possible but managing a new colony in India or setting up a corruptish republic there is beyond us. Sri Lanka is a moonshot from a people who need to learn how to fly first.
Still, the future looks bright if Russia thinks they can bribe us to victory...
This bleak and dystopian AAR continues to astound me as it plumbs new depths of horror. I'm sure there are worse stories out there, all those Nazi world conquests for starters, but this is still shaping up to be a spectacularly grim world.
Sure SITH are still there as the inept comic relief, but even they are pretty damn dark. The recent revelation that Turkey can just break centuries of diplomatic law and start arresting and torturing diplomats with zero consequence was another sad landmark on this worlds descent into hell. Even the Soviets and Nazis respected that sort of thing, though not any more I suspect.
That said, chapeau at the gameplay achievements. With all those expeditionary forces under competent (Human) control things are looking up and it can't be long till Germany starts hitting a wall around MP or resources. Or both.
I feel like we've been nothing but competent, foiling assassination attempts of the Turkish Republic heads and Atatürk, neutralising Nazi spy rings in the Balkans and fighting the Italian Mafia and winning on their own turf. Turkish intelligence on the other hand...
Well, at least they're good at catching enemies of the state and foreign 'spies'.
The recent revelation that Turkey can just break centuries of diplomatic law and start arresting and torturing diplomats with zero consequence was another sad landmark on this worlds descent into hell.
If it makes you feel any better, SITH competently interrogated and turned the diplomat into their spy on the drive over the incompetent Turkish intelligent services. And they know we got everything out of him. They're just torturing him for fun.
Sure but the Axis Soring Offensive of 1943 is going to be the one that makes it or breaks it for them in Europe. If they can take Romania, they may yet be able to push out turkey from the Balkans and smash the Russians back to Moscow. If they can't take Romania before the end of summer, they have another winter of a United patriotic front to deal with, and they just can't deal with it. So whilst the US has only just not entered the war, everyone involved needs to know what the plan is for a few months time, because it's going to decide the fate in Europe and either prolong or shorten the war by at least a year.
Interesting. Anyone doing anything TTL?
Makes sense politically to keep them comfortable and out of trouble for now.
What, just to decide that the Turks can keep Afghanistan? Dear me...
Was this another case of hindsight incompetence being so unbelievable that a conspiracy theory sprang up afterwards to explain it away?
Be brace, little turkey. Why would t we end up controlling Afghanistan? Unless Stalin wants it? I don't think he does...
What on earth is he going to say to those poor buggers?
I.e. That the UK is going to be letting both go at the end of the war due to popular and potlcial demand. That being said, American actions urther in the chapter imply the dominions and commonwealth might be a more tight knit lack than OTL.
Well that's good. Americans so close to mainland Anatolia should give the Russians some pause.
SITH on the other hand knew exactly who he was, and decided to use him as a sleeper agent in the UK using a combination of psychological conditioning and demonic possession.
The UK was clearly not going to be able to run things in either place after the war, both because it was spectacularly unpopular there and also because Turkey and the US wanted in on the action. With Turkey in Afghanistan and presumably eventually most of the Middle East, the US began looking into specific areas to carve up into protectorates for their own purposes.
Not good. Although at the same time, not bad either. The US produced most of the world's oil back then so really its more a case of keeping the Axis away from it than securing our own supply. In future peacetime of course having our own oil fields outside of Russia and the US gives us tremendous amounts of power as well.
cough cough BULLSHIT!
Or at very least, sit in Kent and do nothing,
It would be very humiliating for British possesions to be safeguarded by barbarians and lesser civilisations like the Turks. Especially in the Middle East. Relying on the Ottomans to do somethingL Who cares If it's inaccurate and racist, this is England we're talking about!
Basically the Allies still don't like or trust us, and it's merely the presence of America on our side that keeps them from making a fuss about it. However, this does also mean that they won't make a fuss about pretty much anything outside of Europe and the dominions so...bear that in mind.
Surprise surprise.
This does need to be under,Ines as critical. This was the reason the US entered the European war in the first place and a major block on British power in Europe. With that gone, the UK can at least in theory strike anywhere in Europe from the sea.
As said above, this might mean that whilst the empire is doomed to a fast collapse after the war, the dominion states outside of India might stick together because the US is trying to bully them. Would probably be a higher level of the wider commonwealth with very tight military alliances and cooperation.
Go suck a lemon yah miserable Limey Bastard. Is he disappointed because of the soft underbelly?
Of course he is.
This is the fulcrum upon which our furthest rest so this isn't good news. With the other fronts stable, this needs to be reinforced.
Whilst I am confident Russia will NOT be pushed back to a Moscow, if they are then they can't pull the trick of moving industry safely over the mountains eastwards...cos that isn't safe from Japan.
What an unnecessary mess the British have got us all into. Including Italy.
A lot to unpack (many thanks), so I'll hit the highlights rather than go point-by-point.
We'll see who comes up with the Spring (or Summer) Offensive first in 1942 - if anyone! Could be Germany/Axis or Comintern, depending how the next few months go. I can't control the first of course and have only limited influence on the second. The Tehran Conference (because of game mechanics and only Turkey being human-controlled) will have to be strategic in nature. The operational decisions will come out 'in the wash'. But with the US now also in the Comintern, I can try to suggest lines of attack at least that apply to most of the Anti-Fascist Coalition. The UK - well, we've seen not to rely too much on them in this ATL.
Last time I checked, the US were on the cusp but not actively pursuing nuclear technology.
The Sofiyah Conference was largely inspired by OTL, where those three met in Cairo. I just wanted to parallel it as much as I could but with the alt-hist twist of role reversals - and use the photo!! But there was logic to it. More will come out in a subsequent discussion of your correspondence with @roverS3 on conference mechanics and geopolitics.
Re Pearl Harbor: as Aaaron Sorkin says in A Few Good Men, a trial is all about finding someone to blame - someone had to go down for it. But per an aphorism I rather like, when there's a choice between something being caused by a conspiracy or a fu*k-up, 99.9% of the time it will be a fu*k-up!
Stalin doesn't seem interested in Afghanistan at all. But it needs to be tidied up, as the Japanese are getting disturbingly close to its north-east. This will be a topic of discussion at the Tehran Conference, even if not in the first order of business.
The US presence as short-term assistance and long-term friends in the hypothetical post-war world are both welcome. These themes will be played out over time, I think. Including the delicate balancing act Turkey must perform on the high-wire.
In the alt-ATL of Kelebek's Deep State, he may know who the Thorn isn't - though who he is may remain a mystery.
The Middle-East and contingencies for dealing with a deterioration there will figure large in Turkish planning for Tehran - though some of those conversations may be in side-bar 'Comintern Only' talks. A range of options will be discussed. And yes, with fancy Plan code-names and colourful arrows on maps! And Inonu saw right through Winston's obfuscation and wordplay, but was too polite and retained too much good will for Churchill (despite everything) to score any cheap points: his main point had already been made. As mentioned previously, apart from Turkey needing to secure its soft underbelly, the big implication for the Soviets would be the impact on Turkey's posture in the Balkans caused by the need to transfer substantial forces to the Middle East should things go belly-up there.
Romania ebbs and flows. We get it generally in one-two week chunks in the story: taking the longer view, I'm more alert than alarmed at this point. The Romanians (now with all those EFs under direct command, but it's still just the AI anyway) are not just sitting back and will fight hard. The Soviets now look a little shakier in Ukraine, but are amassing a powerful front in the North. I'm hoping a strike towards Prussia will be the next big diversionary play that will draw forces back away from the south (Balkans, Romania, Ukraine) as our 1941 Spring Offensive did. Perhaps Turkey may even offer some encouragement via some depth objectives set in the German's rear in the north (so to speak).
The Far East is really a morass that shows no sign of drying up yet. And I really don't know how bad it will get before it (hopefully) gets better.
Saw a yawning gap in Afghanistan - so it had to be plunged into! A single brigade has managed to capture half of their VPs!
Yes, I had some 'wild mushrooms' at a Michelin Hat restaurant in Paris that ended up being really wild. My wife (literally - I'm not making this up) tells me I reported spiders crawling over the ceiling whilst in the throes of a fever delirium that night. I'll draw a polite veil over the rest of the symptoms. Suffice it to say I lost a lot of weight over the following couple of days. The situation wasn't helped by us having to fly back to Australia the morning after! It wasn't a pleasant flight. I think our Italian friend must have gone somewhere similar - but never came out!
The UK is a continuing disappointment in this ATL. While I don't want them doing too well, I do at least want them to provide a substantive distraction for the Axis in the meantime!
The Patriotic Front? I agree, but can't be sure, the current Axis fight back will be temporary and limited. As for the Far East ... <shakes head sadly>
I'll tackle the central elements of the 'What about that Sofiyah Conference?' discussion in another chunk. I'll focus more on the in-game and current narrative elements and let the hypothetical post-war stuff blossom by itself: it's fun and interesting, but for time's sake I will have to force myself to concentrate on the immediate for the AAR. Though I may (as I have so far) dabble from time to time.
You have a side-meeting with the Americans and the British, which are part of another faction, without inviting diplomatic representation from the Soviet Union. Though the Sofiya side-meeting didn't amount to anything that was problematic to the Soviet Union, the lack of a high ranking Soviet Official does not look that good. It seems that Soviet diplomats, and, to a certain extent, Stalin, tend to trust Turkey more than they trust America. For starters, the US are more blatantly capitalistic, and somewhat big on personal freedom, something that's not a problem in Turkey. More importantly though, through all the recent struggles, a good working relationship was built between Turkey and the Soviet Union, before the US joined our alliance. It would be preferable to avoid giving the impression that Turkey now favours diplomatic relations with the US over those with the Soviet Union now. Never forget who's fighting side by side with Turkey's Army... I just had to convey this sentiment, there was not much point in having a Soviet representative in Sofiya as everything on the subject of Afghanistan had been discussed, and Turkey should get some leeway over how it handles it's side of the Med, and how it coordinates with the British in the Arab peninsula. The Soviet diplomatic service likes to be included, and in some sense, they feel threatened by the Americans who are arriving, and showing off all of their fancy technology, and sailing around their massive fleets, etc. It would be wise to show Turkey's foremost commitment to cooperation with the Soviet Union on all fronts. The Soviet Union is Turkey's powerful neighbour, the US is an allied industrial powerhouse far away, Turkey needs both's full support to thrive, and get the best deal possible. Optics can be important, better thread lightly. (It's interesting how the US has a larger industry, and better technology, but the Soviet Union is the leader of the faction, a bit like the UK remaining the leader of the Allies when the US joined the Allies, except that the disparity seems to be smaller...)
Part of the reasoning for the Sofiyah Conference was mentioned in my previous response to TBC. But I did have the Soviet relationship in mind when putting it in where I did here. Also Turkey's own pride and self-interest (they are no puppets here, so I imagine the dynamic and power relationship is different here than it would have been in OTL, especially after the Soviets had become dominant in Eastern Europe).
So, the Soviets were well aware the meeting was going to be held, were consulted beforehand and will get (as mentioned in the chapter) a detailed confidential read out that will help them prepare for Tehran. Inonu will claim 'No Collusion with Russia' here to Churchill, but at the same time may have been asking questions or making points Stalin wanted asked or made, while also looking after Turkey's own interests on the side. He has more power to do so than the average post-war Warsaw Pact Soviet puppet state. After all, it was Turkey that took the initiative to drag the Soviets into a pre-emptive war with the Fascists that has gone a lot better than most (even the Turks themselves, you will recall) expected, even after the sad fall of France at the end of 1940.
Also, Stalin wants to take every opportunity to have the new ally - the US - persuaded to get more involved on the ground and at sea - especially in the Pacific, to take the heat off them in the Far East, where things are looking more like OTL Russia in 1941 v Germany. All in all, Sofiyah was just a warm-up event for Tehran, which the Soviets understand. Though SkitalecS3 is certainly right about one thing in particular: everyone should be suspicious of each others' longer term motives, even while the Anti-Fascist war is prosecuted. Just as in OTL.
@TheButterflyComposer already did a thorough job unpacking this report, but I still have a few observations.
The spy war is still going well. I'm worried about Romania, once more it's getting worse. Let's hope that the Red Army will be able to stabilise that part of the front once more. The Far East keeps getting worse, it looks like the Red Army still has too few units to do much, they slow down the Japanese, and I'm sure they're putting up a good fight in most cases, but there are simply so many more Japanese units that they don't really stand a chance.
Congrats on the victory in Herat, and we'll gladly let Turkey have Afghanistan, the British never had it easy pacifying the area, and as much as we'd like to think we can do better, we'd rather have the Turks do it, it's not like it's very valuable real estate anyway.
Yes, the spy war goes nicely. Mengkukuo surely can't have the leadership to replace such high wastage rates! We'll see whether the Italian (and Axis fellow-traveller) c-e capacity is reduced enough for us to start some other lines of exploitation there in the next little while.
For the Tehran conference, there will be much to discuss. The Soviet Union would be most interested if the US were to push back the Japanese in the Pacific, and eventually in China, or in the Japanese home islands, though the distances involved and the need to retake islands along the way mean that, were ground troops are concerned, this should be a small operation to start with. Therefor, there is no real objection the the US helping out in the middle east, especially in the form of expeditionary forces for Turkey, and naval action against remnants of the Italian fleet. Great news that more Italian transports were sunk. The US and the UK are already working together in the Atlantic, it could be interesting for the US if they could negotiate a deal to use British bases, both in the Atlantic, and to fight the IJN. Though I do realise that that's out of Turkey's hands. I'm also quite curious about a possible sighting of the 'thorn'. I'll be present in Tehran, and I'll be keeping an eye on all the shady characters which will inevitable be drawn towards such an event, hoping to eavesdrop on some backroom deal, or to copy/steal some classified documents. If the 'Thorn' is still in Turkey and not in captivity, he won't be able to resist!
I think Tehran will be done as a stand-alone chapter, rather like one of the watershed Cabinet Meetings of old, with an agenda and some more supporting material. And there will be some important narrative elements as well. Which will involve some staple characters and some clandestine activity - Skitalec is right on the money there, but I won't spoil. In part, because I have some ideas for it, but need to wait to see what the characters will do when I put them in the situation. They often have a life of their own and surprise me with what they eventually get up to!
Mm. I mean Turkey is a sovereign nation, not a stalin puppet. But at the same time ww do have to play nice with the Soviets because they're the big kid on the block and a very good friend of ours right now.
Basically we're just going to play it as a bit of realpolitik to our soviet friends. The amercians clearly aren't going to become communist after the war ends so won't stay in the comintern. Thus we have to make seperate deals with them in order to lock down the Med, Africa and Middle East. And Stalin wants us to lock down those, so should understand. Eventually.
Yes, agree with that - pretty much exactly the perspective I was taking. Fortunately, HOI3 as a game is a bit less politically unpredictable than OTL! So the implications of actions are more narrative than game-affecting - though of course no less important because of that! This is an AAR after all, not just a game report, even if it is game-play based.
To Russia maybe not but it massively increases the size of our republic, adds a ton of prestige for holding an 'uncoquerable' place in peacetime, helps build economic ties with India and China, and should at least keep any infighting between Arab and Middle East nations to a minimum for the rest of the world to worry about.
Interesting. The Soviets following this plan basically cede the Pacific, all of it, to US sphere of influence. They must either not care at all about asia outside of China or think the US will either lose their grip, bubgle the job or just lose interest after the war.
As mentioned, at this point I won't get too after-the-war, but I think I agree with @roverS3 here: as with Stalin pushing relentlessly for a Continental Second Front in OTL, he is facing obliteration in the Far East at the moment and just wants the US all-in and distracting the Japanese as much as possible. He would worry about the post-war implications later. And if the US end up embroiled in a land war in Asia later - we'll, the warning about them in The Princess Bride applies!
Let's be real here, the Soviet Union does not have the navy to control the Pacific. As for China, I expect that China will be a quagmire for the US troops, and that a Communist takeover might be in the cards, so not too many worries there. After all, the Communist Chinese already exist, and the Nationalists have been weakened by their fight against Japan. Ideally, we should get the Communist Chinese into the Comintern ahead of time, so that whomever controls China at the time of the final negotiations, it will be the Communist Chinese who have the best claim to it.
Going out on a limb, but an outcome that could be interesting here, is for the US to take Japan and all of it's Pacific holdings, and maybe bits of SE-Asia, while Communism triumphs in most of mainland Asia, especially China, and eventually India as well. If Turkey sticks with the Soviet Union during post-war negotiations, and once the inevitable split with the US occurs, there may be some significant territory in the cards for them. Maybe Pakistan, and some SE-Asian holdings, we've noted your interest in Indochina... why not. What about Sri Lanka? Giving Turkey the ability to project power around the world (without giving them so much that they can easily become stronger than the motherland, of course) would definitely help the Comintern to keep/gain the upper hand in a cold war, or 3rd world war scenario against the US... Turkey's sacrifices in the Great Patriotic War will not be forgotten, unless they betray the trust the Soviet Union put in them. (All of this is basically the Soviet Union trying to try and avoid that Turkey starts playing the US against the USSR in negotiations, or worse, that Turkey would take the USs side...)
All interesting and relevant musings, but as mentioned before I'll happily let the commentatAARs take the main running on this for now. Gotta win the current war first
What, Turkey just takes over every single trouble region in the world? Sure, why not?
Seriously though, I think that Afghanistan or parts of what would be Pakistan should be the Turks limit, for now. Far too much on our plate just with that, rebuilding the balkans, romania, modernising arabia and getting a fleet together to dominate the med, north africa and the Turkish Gulf.
Seriously, look at that monster of a task list. It's all possible but managing a new colony in India or setting up a corruptish republic there is beyond us. Sri Lanka is a moonshot from a people who need to learn how to fly first.
Still, the future looks bright if Russia thinks they can bribe us to victory...
As above. When put like that, the post-war (if the Glorious Freedom-Loving Comintern Benevolent World Order does indeed triumph) world for Turkey would be a heap of work!
This bleak and dystopian AAR continues to astound me as it plumbs new depths of horror. I'm sure there are worse stories out there, all those Nazi world conquests for starters, but this is still shaping up to be a spectacularly grim world.
Sure SITH are still there as the inept comic relief, but even they are pretty damn dark. The recent revelation that Turkey can just break centuries of diplomatic law and start arresting and torturing diplomats with zero consequence was another sad landmark on this worlds descent into hell. Even the Soviets and Nazis respected that sort of thing, though not any more I suspect.
That said, chapeau at the gameplay achievements. With all those expeditionary forces under competent (Human) control things are looking up and it can't be long till Germany starts hitting a wall around MP or resources. Or both.
Great to have you 'back' @El Pip - hope all the Pipettes are well and no doubt keeping you heavily occupied. You mean a world run by right-wing authoritarian Comintern Pact expansionist hegemons, who employ demonic secret agents and Mafia types to do their dirty work behind the scenes doesn't sound like a barrel o' laughs? I'm shocked!
Though I would point out that Callan was caught in conduct inconsistent with his diplomatic status, admitted to being a foreign agent operating clandestinely on Turkish soil in time of war and in breach of the agreement between the two countries. Notwithstanding Kelebek's alt-ATL parallel-universe treatment, in-story he was treated with kid gloves, only questioned (not mistreated) then handed back to British authorities as a gesture of good will, 'unspoiled', and declared persona non grata. Rather civilised and genteel treatment, I would have thought!
Thanks re the game achievements - it remains at heart a tale of an underdog minor power rising to duke it out against the forces of Fascism. And Roosevelt is supporting us now, no less!
I feel like we've been nothing but competent, foiling assassination attempts of the Turkish Republic heads and Atatürk, neutralising Nazi spy rings in the Balkans and fighting the Italian Mafia and winning on their own turf. Turkish intelligence on the other hand...
Well, at least they're good at catching enemies of the state and foreign 'spies'.
If it makes you feel any better, SITH competently interrogated and turned the diplomat into their spy on the drive over the incompetent Turkish intelligent services. And they know we got everything out of him. They're just torturing him for fun.
Always best to let Kelebek speak for itself. But (real in-game) Turkish intel is doing a lot better in Italy this time. Perhaps they are learning after a few years or hard lessons ...
Ahh...hadn't thought of that. Ok, so we need to take these guys out of the war quick so we can fortify the mountain border up against the Japan approach.
For Kelebek, I view my alt-scenario stuff as an explination for how Turky manages to hold its empire together fairly well despite being full of people who hate each other and turkey. There must be a serious and scarily good secret police and assasination department who are on the ball most if not all of the time. SMERSH style.
On the contrary I think falling through the ceiling next to Kelebek and still living unharmed is a big feat in itself One can even be made head of general staff
This actually wouldn't be too difficult, as far as modding goes. I might even offer to do it myself if time permitted me. The bigger challenge, frankly, is that we can't well go and replace the current leadership with all the character development thus far just so @diskoerekto can pin more medals to his jacket!
This actually wouldn't be too difficult, as far as modding goes. I might even offer to do it myself if time permitted me. The bigger challenge, frankly, is that we can't well go and replace the current leadership with all the character development thus far just so @diskoerekto can pin more medals to his jacket!
a Colonel suddenly becoming Head of General Staff also doesn't make much sense, even if it's a game. Wartime brings faster promotion, but not THAT fast
Ahh...hadn't thought of that. Ok, so we need to take these guys out of the war quick so we can fortify the mountain border up against the Japan approach.
For Kelebek, I view my alt-scenario stuff as an explination for how Turky manages to hold its empire together fairly well despite being full of people who hate each other and turkey. There must be a serious and scarily good secret police and assasination department who are on the ball most if not all of the time. SMERSH style.
Re Afghanistan, it’s mainly about removing another diversion for scarce Soviet forces in this region, as quickly as possible. Though it could eventually get to the point of assisting a defence if the Japanese just don’t stop. And I’m fully on board with the alt-ATL. Just wanted to mount a defence against the accusation of violating diplomatic immunity. The regime may be guilty of many things, but the Brits were the first to break the gentlemen’s agreement here on spying and using a cultural attaché to do it (which was probably the thing that gave him away)
This actually wouldn't be too difficult, as far as modding goes. I might even offer to do it myself if time permitted me. The bigger challenge, frankly, is that we can't well go and replace the current leadership with all the character development thus far just so @diskoerekto can pin more medals to his jacket!
a Colonel suddenly becoming Head of General Staff also doesn't make much sense, even if it's a game. Wartime brings faster promotion, but not THAT fast
It was more a wistful throwaway line - to replace one of the newly named commanders with Colonel Diskoerekto so he could take over 3 Mtn Div. I could probably do it, but I’ve avoided modding in this game and will stick to it, in the spirit of playing with what I get. And to preserve the cast of characters, too.
Sorry, couldn’t resist that bit of sarcastic observation, though I probably should have. Get thee behind me, Satan! You and your comedic temptations. I promise it won’t happen again. In all likelihood.
This actually wouldn't be too difficult, as far as modding goes. I might even offer to do it myself if time permitted me. The bigger challenge, frankly, is that we can't well go and replace the current leadership with all the character development thus far just so @diskoerekto can pin more medals to his jacket!
I mean, putting the big K in the game would probably break it. See that Vicky II AAR with the Cult taking over the British Empire and Russian Empire at the same time and trashing the rest of the planet.
Which could happen, since the Japs don't seem to care about supplies and that was the only thing we thought might stop em. We may yet have to build a wall around anatolia to protect it from the other side. How strange...
Which could happen, since the Japs don't seem to care about supplies and that was the only thing we thought might stop em. We may yet have to build a wall around anatolia to protect it from the other side. How strange...
Hoping it doesn't come to that. Don't think it will, but ya never know. I think there would be some quite difficult infra problems for them getting around, but as you say they seem to be ignoring supply issues for now.
Though I would point out that Callan was caught in conduct inconsistent with his diplomatic status, admitted to being a foreign agent operating clandestinely on Turkish soil in time of war and in breach of the agreement between the two countries. Notwithstanding Kelebek's alt-ATL parallel-universe treatment, in-story he was treated with kid gloves, only questioned (not mistreated) then handed back to British authorities as a gesture of good will, 'unspoiled', and declared persona non grata. Rather civilised and genteel treatment, I would have thought!
Nope. That was still utterly unacceptable behaviour and puts Turkey in breach of a shed load of treaties.The importance of protecting Diplomats makes it into a large number of major treaties, if only by reference to other treaties (as you would expect, because they were all negotiated by Diplomats ). It's definitely got history going back to Congress of Vienna, arguably Peace of Westphalia and been customary international law for almost as long as their have been diplomats and ambassadors.
You do not arrest diplomats or take them for even gentle questioning. You just don't, people have literally got away with murder and slavery and hidden behind diplomatic immunity, it's that sacred. If Turkey had declared him PNG and kicked him out of the country, absolutely fine and no-one would bat an eyelid. But returning him was not a gesture of goodwill, it should have been an "Oh bugger, the intelligence lot have done something retarded (again), lets hope we can get out of this by apologising and blaming an underling", to which the British make a gesture of goodwill by accepting the story and not kicking out the entire Turkish embassy and getting everyone else in the world to do the same.
Nope. That was still utterly unacceptable behaviour and puts Turkey in breach of a shed load of treaties.The importance of protecting Diplomats makes it into a large number of major treaties, if only by reference to other treaties (as you would expect, because they were all negotiated by Diplomats ). It's definitely got history going back to Congress of Vienna, arguably Peace of Westphalia and been customary international law for almost as long as their have been diplomats and ambassadors.
You do not arrest diplomats or take them for even gentle questioning. You just don't, people have literally got away with murder and slavery and hidden behind diplomatic immunity, it's that sacred. If Turkey had declared him PNG and kicked him out of the country, absolutely fine and no-one would bat an eyelid. But returning him was not a gesture of goodwill, it should have been an "Oh bugger, the intelligence lot have done something retarded (again), lets hope we can get out of this by apologising and blaming an underling", to which the British make a gesture of goodwill by accepting the story and not kicking out the entire Turkish embassy and getting everyone else in the world to do the same.
I do take your point, but he did a lot better than those US diplomats in Tehran in 1979
The Vienna Conventions weren’t formally enacted until 1961 (so in 1942 I believe it would have been more an ad hoc understanding of traditional diplomatic practice). And there are even modern examples (post-Vienna and by countries who are signatories) of diplomats being initially arrested (sometimes for charges of a more personal or criminal nature) before their status is verified or when the host country decides whether to ask the diplomat’s government to waive immunity.
So in this case, I don’t think it’s quite the egregious example, though does sail close to the wind. The Turks probably maintained he was being detained for his own safety while his diplomatic bona fides were confirmed (he wouldn’t have had his diplomatic passport with him). And in those times, they would also be coping with slower communications, so could use that as cover for the detention. And the British knew they were caught flagrantly flaunting the intelligence agreement they had concluded with their Turkish counterparts, so would be reluctant to press the point too far.
And in this world, ‘everyone else’ is the Axis, the Comintern (who will merely tut tut a bit, if that) and a few Allied or neutral countries of little significance. Turkey will get away with it and probably try to take the high moral ground, while the need to keep the Anti-Fascist Coalition together and keep things smooth for the Summits would limit UK comeback. They may be dirty on their own MI6 for provoking the incident, breaching their agreement with Turkey - and getting caught! Always the worst offence.
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Chapter 160: The Big Four in Tehran – Part 1 (pm 31 January to am 1 February 1942)
Chapter 160: The Big Four in Tehran – Part 1 (pm 31 January to am 1 February 1942)
AuthAAR’s Note: This big piece on the Tehran Conference is almost entirely historical, descriptive and narrative in nature. No movie scripts (though plenty of theatre allusions) or active gameplay here – we will return to that after the meeting concludes. It is broken up purely because of length. I could have made it one, but it would have been very long – even by my standards - as narrative episodes can tend to be when so many different events discussions and side-meetings (diplomatic and clandestine) must be covered. The first part sets the scene further for both the discussions and some of the events going on in the margins of the meeting, which the second part will describe. Some reader guesses are spot-on, some long story arcs are resolved and new ones started.
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Principal Participants
All of the ‘Big Four’ leaders and their entourages had arrived in Tehran by the evening of 31 January 1942. Some arrived early enough to engage in some preparatory talks prior to the Summit.
Naqsh-eJahan Square in Tehran – one of the more prominent landmarks to greet the eye of the incoming delegations as they flew into the city for the ‘Big Four’ Meeting on 31 January 1942.
The Turkish delegation supporting President Inönü included Foreign Minister Tewfik Rüstü Aras, Intelligence Chief Sükrü Ali Ögel and the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, Field Marshal Ali Örlungat. These men are all well known to the reader, so no detailed additional biographical detail will be provided here. Also present was Supreme Theatre Commander Field Marshal Fuad Calistar, supporting Örlungat for the military discussions (the latter was frequently involved in active air operations at the front) and also in his capacity as head of the Propaganda Department.
The other three lead powers at the talks brought similar delegations. In addition, Inönü had invited Romanian representatives to participate as part of the Turkish delegation and represent their country in Comintern-only side meetings. Their Foreign Minister and Intelligence Head attended – Romanian Chief of Staff Ion Victor Antonescu [referred to as Victor Antonescu on the screen, but there was a separate Victor Antonescu who was Foreign Minister in the late 1930s. I’m sure they mean Ion Antonescu here]– was not invited as he was so despised by everyone else [ie. the OTL ‘Conducator’ of Romania]. And he also remained so scared of Luca Brasi that he didn’t feel safe venturing anywhere on Turkish-controlled territory.
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Additional Biographical Information
The Turkish delegation was provided additional biographical details on those attending from the other countries who they were not so familiar with.
USA
From the USA, of course President Roosevelt and General Douglas MacArthur were already well-known figures.
General Douglas MacArthur, apart from his command responsibilities in the Philippines, was also [nominally, in game terms, as there was not yet a Chairman of the Joint Chiefs at this point in the US] the US Chief of Staff. He had flown from the Philippines to be on hand for this important meeting.
The US Secretary of State by this time was Alfred E. Smith. The classified biography rates him as an ‘apologetic clerk’ by nature.
US Secretary of State: Alfred E. ‘Al’ Smith - Classified Profile
Alfred Emanuel Smith (b. December 30, 1873) is an American politician who was elected Governor of New York four times and was the Democratic Party's candidate for President in 1928. Smith felt slighted by Roosevelt during the latter's governorship. They became rivals for the Democratic Party presidential primaries in 1932 after Smith decided to run for the nomination. At the convention, Smith's animosity toward Roosevelt was so great that he put aside longstanding rivalries and managed to work with William Gibbs McAdoo and William Randolph Hearst to try to block FDR's nomination for several ballots. This unlikely coalition fell apart when Smith refused to work on finding a compromise candidate; instead, he manoeuvred to become the nominee. After losing the nomination, Smith eventually campaigned for Roosevelt in 1932, giving a particularly important speech on behalf of the Democratic nominee at Boston on October 27 in which he "pulled out all the stops."
Smith became highly critical of Roosevelt's New Deal policies, which he deemed a betrayal of good-government progressive ideals and ran counter to the goal of close cooperation with business. Smith joined the American Liberty League, an organization founded by conservative Democrats who disapproved of Roosevelt's New Deal measures and tried to rally public opinion against the New Deal. In 1934, Smith joined forces with wealthy business executives, who provided most of the League's funds. The League published pamphlets and sponsored radio programs, arguing that the New Deal was destroying personal liberty.
However, the League failed to gain support in the 1934 and 1936 elections and rapidly declined in influence. It was officially dissolved in 1940. Smith's antipathy to Roosevelt and his policies was so great that he supported Republican presidential candidates Alfred M. Landon (in the 1936 election) and Wendell Willkie (in the 1940 election). Smith and Franklin Roosevelt reportedly did not reconcile until a brief meeting in June 1941.
Smith was an early and vocal critic of the Nazi regime in Germany. He supported the Anti-Nazi boycott of 1933 and addressed a mass-meeting at Madison Square Garden against Nazism that March. His speech was included in the 1934 anthology Nazism: An Assault on Civilization. In 1938, Smith took to the airwaves to denounce Nazi brutality in the wake of Kristallnacht.
In OTL, Smith died at the Rockefeller Institute Hospital on October 4, 1944, of a heart attack, at the age of 70. Given his political background and troubled relationship with Roosevelt, what he would have made of his US alignment with the Comintern can well be imagined! And to then be appointed Secretary of State by Roosevelt and required to prosecute it!?
But still, Paradox can hardly be expected to have a little personal AI for each appointee, so this isn’t as bad as the HOI3 Ecuadorian Cabinet of 1944 (thanks @El Pip)! We will wave alt-history magic fairy dust over this appointment, imagining his early adoption of the anti-Nazi cause and his continuing close relationship through these time with Eleanor Roosevelt precipitated an earlier and more heartfelt reconciliation than in OTL, allowing his appointment as SECSTATE here.
Head of the Office of the US Coordinator of Information: Vincent Astor - Classified Profile
William Vincent Astor (November 15, 1891 – February 3, 1959) is an American businessman, philanthropist, naval officer and recently appointed strategic intelligence ‘supremo’.
In GW1, following the declaration of war against Germany, Astor took advice from his friend and future president Franklin Delano Roosevelt and volunteered for active duty with the Navy on April 7, 1917. He went overseas on June 9 on the USS Noma (Astor's own yacht which had been acquired as a patrol ship by the Navy). He was later assigned to the armed yacht USS Aphrodite. He was promoted to lieutenant (junior grade) on January 1, 1918, and to lieutenant on July 1, 1918.
In the quiet before GW2, Astor sailed the Nourmahal in 1938 to Japan on a secret civilian mission for President Roosevelt to gather intelligence on the Japanese naval operations around the Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean. As he had done with the Noma in GW1, he lent his yacht Nourmahal to the Coast Guard for service in GW2.
In GW2, Astor has again volunteered for active duty with the US Navy. He was appointed as the head of the Office of the Coordinator of Information, an intelligence and propaganda agency of the United States Government, founded on July 11, 1941, by President Franklin D. Roosevelt, prior to U.S. involvement in GW2 [this was William J. Donovan in OTL]. It was intended to overcome the lack of coordination between existing agencies which, in part, it did by duplicating some of their functions
Until their entry into the war, the main focus of US overseas intelligence collection (as opposed to domestic counter-intelligence operations) has been on signals intelligence (SIGINT) and code-breaking.
In OTL, Astor died on 3 February 1959. Perhaps Astor's longer lasting contributions were his weekly reports from the Chase Bank, where his inside access included USSR account balances. On 13 Dec 1940, Astor began reporting to the US Treasury the Soviet weekly balances in an unbroken sequence (made by occasional substitutes) up through at least 1945. He was called to active duty with the rank of commander and given assignment as Area Controller for New York. In this position he coordinated merchant convoys leaving the city and provided informal intelligence work for President Roosevelt. During the early months of 1942, Astor suggested equipping fishing boats with radios so they could report U-boat sightings. One boat so equipped was Ernest Hemingway's fishing yacht Pilar.
To be charitable (after Astor’s own leanings) and lenient with Paradox, perhaps his long-term relationship with Roosevelt, standing in society, naval experience and dabbling in intelligence matters have led to his ATL appointment to head US Intelligence. I think we can imagine it as a political cabinet appointment rather than expecting him to be a professional hands-on intelligence expert – which he was not. Let us also imagine his ‘familiarity’ with Soviet economic reporting led to him being appointed to this role in the ATL, where he would be working closely with Comintern partners.
The Office of Strategic Services later took over the strategic intelligence component of this work and expanded it into wartime special operations, was established by a Presidential military order issued by President Roosevelt on June 13, 1942.
Note also that Dwight D. Eisenhower is now the US Army Chief. As well as commanding airborne troops in Rhodes – which makes for a shorter trip to Tehran!
Soviet Union
General Secretary Stalin and Foreign Minister Litvinov are of course very well known to Turkish interlocutors. But the current Head of Intelligence (the GRU) and the Soviet Chief of Staff are less widely known outside the Soviet Union. Their classified biographies follow – and both make for interesting reading.
The Head of the GRU: Ivan I. Proskurov – Classified Profile
Ivan Iosifovich Proskurov (Russian: Иван Иосифович Проскуров; b. 18 February 1907) is a Soviet pilot and recipient of the title Hero of the Soviet Union, best known as the chief of military intelligence who warned Josef Stalin that the Red Army was ill-prepared to defend the USSR against a German invasion.
Proskurov was appointed head of Soviet military intelligence, the GRU, and deputy USSR People's Commissar for Defence, on 14 April 1939. Soon after his appointment, he picked up intelligence that the Nazi regime was planning to invade Poland and wanted to open secret discussions with Moscow. The outcome was the non-aggression pact signed in August 1939, which preceded the dismemberment of Poland. Prior to the Soviet attack on Finland, in 1940, Proskurov inspected the Soviet front line and reached a scathing conclusion about the Red Army's preparedness, which earned him the enmity of the newly appointed People's Commissar for Defence, Semyon Timoshenko.
Proskurov sent the first report to Stalin, Vyacheslav Molotov and Marshal Timoshenko on 6 May 1940 [6 June in OTL], warning that as soon as France had been forced to capitulate, the Germans would begin preparing an invasion of the USSR. On 19 May [19 June in OTL], he followed with a warning about the build-up of German troops on the Lithuanian border. This conflicted with Stalin's unshakable belief that Hitler would honour the non-aggression pact. Fortunately for Proskurov, his assessments were complemented by Turkey’s diplomacy and Stalin came to agree both with his assessment and Inönü’s arguments about the Comintern needing to pre-empt a certain German attack that would follow France’s fall.
After the Finnish debacle in OTL (it went a bit better in this time line), when the Military Council met in April 1940, Proskurov refused to accept Stalin's line that poor intelligence was to blame. Proskurov’s advice about Germany and Soviet unpreparedness was unwelcome when it was given and apparently cost him his life in October 1941 in OTL. Luckily for Proskurov, here in our ATL, things turned out differently.
But in OTL, Proskurov was sacked in July 1940, and replaced by the more pliable Filipp Golikov. He was unemployed until October, when he was assigned a senior role managing bomber pilots. On 4 April 1941, Stalin sent Timoshenko a note saying that Proskurov should be arrested, but the decision was delayed, and on 19 June he was appointed commander of the air forces of the Seventh Army.
He had not taken up his command when the Germans attacked. He was on the northern front, in Karelia, when he was arrested on 27 June. He was one of a large group of former military officers and others, including the Old Bolshevik Filipp Goloshchyokin shot on 28 October 1941. In this ATL, his warnings were well heeded and meshed with the approaches by Turkey to pre-empt any German attack, trying to prevent the fall of France and therefore a prepared German invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941.
Soviet Chief of Staff: Marshal Boris M. Shaposhnikov – Classified Profile
Boris Mikhaylovich Shaposhnikov (Russian: Бори́с Миха́йлович Ша́пошников) (b. October 2 1882) is a Marshal of the Soviet Union and their Chief of Staff. [Just going with the HOI3 title here.]
He was a colonel in the Caucasus Grenadiers division in September 1917 during GW1. Also in 1917, unusually for an officer of his rank, he supported the Russian Revolution and in May 1918 joined the Red Army. From 1928 to 1931 he served as Chief of the Staff of the Red Army, replacing Mikhail Tukhachevsky, with whom he had a strained relationship, then commanded the Volga Military District from 1931 to 1932. In 1932 he was appointed commandant of the Red Army's Frunze Military Academy, then in 1935 returned to the command of the Leningrad region. In 1937 he was appointed Chief of the General Staff, in succession to Alexander Ilyich Yegorov, a victim of a Case of Trotskyist Anti-Soviet Military Organisation secret trial during Joseph Stalin's Great Purge of the Red Army. In May 1940 he was appointed a Marshal of the Soviet Union.
Despite his background as a Tsarist officer, Shaposhnikov won the respect and trust of Stalin. His status as a professional officer - he did not join the Communist Party until 1939 - may have helped him avoid Stalin's suspicions. The price he paid for his survival during the purges was collaboration in the destruction of Tukhachevsky and of many other colleagues. Stalin shows his admiration for the officer by always keeping a copy of Shaposhnikov's most important work, Mozg Armii (Мозг армии, "The Brain of the Army") (1929), on his desk. Shaposhnikov is one of the few men whom Stalin addresses by his Christian name and patronymic.
Fortunately for the Soviet Union, Shaposhnikov has a fine military mind and high administrative skills. He combined these talents with his position in Stalin's confidence to rebuild the Red Army leadership after the purges. He obtained the release from the Gulag of 4,000 officers deemed necessary for this operation. In 1939 Stalin accepted Shaposhnikov's plan for a rapid build-up of the Red Army's strength. It has enabled the Soviets to hold their own against the Germans in combination with Turkey and Romania, even though forced onto the defensive after the Fall of France in December 1940.
Although Shaposhnikov’s rebuilding plan was not completed before the OTL German invasion of June 1941, it had advanced sufficiently to save the Soviet Union from complete disaster. In OTL, the Winter War against Finland (1939-1940) did not deliver the immediate success the Soviet side had hoped for (it went somewhat better in ATL), and Shaposhnikov resigned as Chief of the General Staff in August 1940, due to ill health and to disagreements with Stalin about the conduct of that campaign. Following the German invasion, he was reinstated (29 July 1941) as Chief of the General Staff to succeed Georgy Zhukov.
He resigned due to ill-health again as Chief of the General Staff on 10 May 1942. He held the position of commandant of the Voroshilov Military Academy until his death in 1945. Shaposhnikov had groomed his successor as Chief of Staff, Aleksandr Vasilevsky, and remained an influential and respected advisor to Stalin until his death. Mozg Armii has remained on the curriculum of the General Staff Academy since its publication in 1929.
Romania
Romanian Foreign Minister: George Oprescu – Classified Profile
George Oprescu (b. 27 November 1881) is a Romanian historian, art critic and collector … and [in HOI3] Foreign Minister of Romania. Born into a poor family, he developed a taste for the fine arts early in life, as well as for the French language, which he taught into his forties. Subsequently working for the League of Nations, he turned his attention to art history, becoming a professor in the field at the University of Bucharest in 1931.
From 1923 to 1930, Oprescu served as secretary of the League of Nations' International Committee on Intellectual Cooperation (ICIC) in Geneva; and then of the Committee on Literature and Art until 1939, when he moved back to Romania to fill the role of Foreign Minister [in ATL]. From 1932 to 1942, he also headed the Toma Stelian Museum, donating to it many of the artworks he had purchased both at home and abroad.
In OTL Oprescu died in 1959. Clearly, while his League of Nations work in the cultural area seems to be his main claim to diplomatic expertise (!?), the clincher was obviously his role as an accomplished art historian and museum head. Eminent qualifications in HOI3.
Elena Văcărescu as Romanian delegate to the League of Nations in 1936.
Romanian Head of Intelligence Elena Văcărescu – Classified Profile
Elena Văcărescu or Hélène Vacaresco (b. September 21, 1864 in Bucharest) was a Romanian-French aristocrat writer, twice a laureate of the Académie Française.
Văcărescu was the Substitute Delegate to the League of Nations from 1922 to 1924. She was a permanent delegate from 1925 to 1926. She was again a Substitute Delegate to the League of Nations from 1926 to 1938. She was the only woman to serve with the rank of ambassador (permanent delegate) in the history of the League of Nations.
In 1925 she was welcomed as a member of the Romanian Academy. She translated into French, works of Romanian poets such as Mihai Eminescu, Lucian Blaga, Octavian Goga, George Topîrceanu, Ion Minulescu and Ion Vinea.
Wikipedia lists Văcărescu’s occupations as poet, writer, memoirist, novelist, playwright, translator. But not intelligence operative! In OTL, just before her death in February 1947, Văcărescu was a member of the Gheorghe Tătărescu-headed Romanian delegation to the Paris Peace Conference at the end of World War II.
In summary, she may have been better suited as Foreign Minister than Head of Intelligence, but at least held important official diplomatic appointments in her public career. Though from a Paradox research perspective, her main claim to a Cabinet appointment of any sort was surely her career as a poet and literary figure, a sure-fire way (apart from being dead in OTL by the time of appointment) for securing such a post in HOI3!
United Kingdom
All the British protagonists are easily recognised except perhaps for Sir Stewart Menzies (who has been profiled previously), often confused [by Paradox researchers] with Australian Prime Minister Sir Robert Menzies (an extended relation). As a reminder, here is his photo.
Major General Sir Stewart Graham Menzies, (b. 30 January 1890) has been Chief of MI6, the British Secret Intelligence Service (SIS), from 1939.
Note: as previously mentioned, I am using this Menzies instead of Robert Menzies, the Australian Prime Minister, that the game has in the role at present. Some things I just can’t let stand, and the surnames are the same, anyway. Robert Menzies did serve on the British War Cabinet at one point during the war, but not as Intel Chief.
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31 Jan 42 - Intelligence Chiefs' ‘Four-Plus-One’ Meeting
The first pre-meeting was a “Four-Plus-One” between the Intelligence Heads of the ‘Big Four’ plus Elena Văcărescu from Romania, held the evening before the summit.
The main topics discussed were information sharing and anti-Fascist counter-intelligence cooperation. A commitment to maintain the more detailed format of recent reports on a periodic basis was reaffirmed. Turkey reported on its current Secret War in Italy, but detail on the infamous Operation Midnight Express domestic counter-intelligence program was not discussed in this forum, which concentrated on the sharing of strategic intelligence about the Axis. The other participants reported similarly.
However, in an aside, Soviet GRU Chief Proskurov alerted Sükrü Ögel to a ‘delicate matter’ that should be discussed separately by their ‘representatives’. A meeting was arranged the next morning between Agent SkitalecS3 (the GRU’s Chief Liaison Officer to Turkey) and Cennet, both of whom were in Tehran to support their Chiefs.
In another aside, Menzies complained to Ögel about the treatment of their ‘diplomat’ (MI6 operative) David Callan in Istanbul a few weeks before.
“Really, Sükrü, I know you caught him red-handed, granted, but he was still a diplomat with immunity. Your people shouldn’t have held him for that long.”
Ögel had been alerted in a cable from London that the British would press this point. The Ambassador there had been in conversation with Turkey’s old interlocutor Lord El Pip, who had made known the institutional outrage – whether genuine or contrived was a matter of judgement – this incident had provoked in Whitehall.
“Sir Stewart, they were Kaya’s men, not mine. I’m sure our S.I.T.H. people would have dealt with the matter far more discretely. Kaya is, well, let us say, a blunt man. Though effective in his way.” Ögel may detest Kaya personally, but would not openly or flagrantly criticise him to an outsider – especially the British MI6 Chief!
“Anyway, I have a report from his people. They say your man did not have his passport with him and claimed to be the notorious agent ‘Thorn’. They claim it took them some time to verify his identity and they had to ask a number of questions to establish the facts of the matter, then check back with Ankara – your know how these bureaucracies are – then negotiate with your Ambassador for his release and quick expulsion with his designation as persona non grata.”
“Furthermore, I am advised he was never mistreated and was only kept in safe accommodation until all the arrangements were finalised. And really, we had an agreement. Between gentlemen. Which he – and you personally – have abrogated. While I am sure the UGNR regrets any misunderstanding that has resulted and fully endorses the principle of diplomatic immunity, I really must protest at the actions that led to it. Any further breaches will be dimly viewed.”
“Well, Ögel, I think we will need to leave the diplomats to sort out the protocol aspects. And I will neither confirm nor deny anything. But I think we both understand the situation. Let us focus on defeating the Axis.”
“That, Sir Stewart, we can both agree on.”
The two shook hands, wary and watchful but recognising who the true enemy was. For now ….
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Morning of 1 Feb 42 – A Café on Istanbul Avenue
Other attendees of note in Tehran for the big meeting came from the propaganda business. To cover such a high-profile event within the UGNR, both Tom Rosencrantz and Persephonee Fotheringay-Phipps were also in Tehran, accompanying Propaganda Department Head Calistar. So too was Brigadier General B.J. Guildenstern – now heading the propaganda bureau of Vincent Astor’s Office of the Coordinator of Information.
Indeed, Guildenstern made a special effort to catch up with Rosencrantz - in a way his successor in Turkey’s Propaganda Department and a competitor for Perse’s affections - for coffee on the morning of the main meeting. He selected a small café on the aptly named Istanbul Avenue in Tehran’s centre.
Istanbul Avenue, Tehran, 1 February 1942.
“Nice to meet you, Rosencrantz, I’ve heard a lot about you,” observed B.J. drily, regarding the firebrand newspaperman. Guildenstern was in civilian clothes for this meeting to be less obtrusive and satisfied himself with a simple glass of water – gone were his heavy boozing days.
Braanzson ‘B.J.’ Guildenstern. “A glass of water will be fine for me, thank you.”
“And I of you, General Guildenstern,” Rosencrantz replies cheekily in his East London accent. “Perse has told me a little bit about the ‘good old days’”. He starts humming a few bars of Springtime for Hitler and Germany, the accidental smash hit musical that eventually forced Guildenstern to leave the country in great haste – and with a suitcase full of questionably obtained money.
Tom Rosencrantz in Tehran, 31 January 1942, the day before the Big Four Meeting.
“Oh, and may I introduce an old friend of mine from England. Tom Stoppard, this is B.J. Guildenstern. Former New York ad man, one time Turkish free-lance propagandist and now doing the same for good old Uncle Sam, our fraternal Comintern partners.”
“Delighted to meet you, General. I’m over here with the British Foreign Office. Looking into the welfare of all the poor Polish refugees who have been accommodated here in Persia. Or should I say the various Iranian Glorious National Republics.”
Tom Stoppard, from the British Foreign Office’s Humanitarian Section, at the café on Istanbul Avenue, Tehran, 1 February 1942.
It is a deft change of subject by Rosencrantz, having got off his little gibe at B.J. – though it didn’t seem to rile him much. Something else was getting to him, it seemed. He seemed rather frosty. And a little wound up.
Young Polish refugees in Tehran. A large number of Polish refugees were housed in Iran at this time, in OTL and also in this ATL. Turkey retained great sympathy for the Poles, despite what the Soviets may have thought of them – and did to them in 1939.
“Yes, Mr Stoppard, I have heard of their plight. It is fine work that is being done to look after them by Turkey and the Iranians. Our own American Red Cross is part of the effort to help them.”
A Polish woman and her child, in front of an American Red Cross tent provided to them in Tehran, January 1942.
From Wikipedia: Following the Soviet invasion of Poland at the onset of World War II in accordance with the Nazi-Soviet Pact against Poland, the Soviet Union acquired over half of the territory of the Second Polish Republic or about 201,000 square kilometres (78,000 sq mi) inhabited by over 13,200,000 people. Within months, in order to 'de-Polonize' annexed lands, the Soviet NKVD rounded up and deported between 320,000 and 1 million Polish nationals to the eastern parts of the USSR, the Urals, and Siberia.
In 1942, about 120,000 refugees from Poland began their exodus to Iran from remote parts of the Soviet Union. About one third of the civilians were children. Despite political instability and famine in Iran at that time, Polish refugees were welcomed by the smiles and generosity of the Iranian people. In late 1942 and early 1943, Polish camps in Iran were located at Tehran, Isfahan, Mashhad and Ahvaz. First schools were opened in Tehran, where after one year there were ten Polish educational institutions. At Isfahan Polish orphanage and children camp was opened, where 2,300 children and 300 adults stayed and eight elementary schools were created.
In this ATL, with Turkey in control of Iran, allied with the Soviets and having admired the earlier Polish struggle against the Germans, we will take this exodus to Iran to have started a bit earlier, so the refugees started appearing late in 1941.
“And do I detect a Czech accent there, Mr Stoppard?”
“Well spotted, General, indeed you do. My parents emigrated to England when I was a child, before the First Great War.”
“Yes, yes, I think I may well have heard of you.” At that point, both Rosencrantz and Stoppard remember that Guildenstern now works for Vincent Astor in a senior capacity. Perhaps he is not just a ‘simple’ propagandist, after all.
Turning back to Rosencrantz, B.J. gives him a narrowed gaze. “My former days are well behind me know, young Tom. But I retain a fatherly and very strong personal interest in Perse, her feelings and her position. If you should do anything to harm her, directly or indirectly, I assure you it will not end nicely for you.”
“Ah, er, I see, General,” says Rosencrantz neutrally, but with some increasing concern.
“Let me put it this way. I know what you’re really up to. Hurt Perse and your life will be worth nothing. I don’t care about you, but I do care about her. Do you get my drift, Tom? And Tom?” The last he directs at Stoppard with a worldly look.
“Yes, very clearly, General,” Rosencrantz is all business now. He looks at his watch. “Oh, my, is that the time? Must be off to cover the big meeting. I’ll see you around the traps.”
“I doubt it,” mutters Guildenstern to himself as he pays the bill while the two Toms head towards the exit with purposeful stride.
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Coming Up: Part 2 follows shortly, covering the main meeting and other ‘side events’ in Tehran.
In OTL, Smith died at the Rockefeller Institute Hospital on October 4, 1944, of a heart attack, at the age of 70. Given his political background and troubled relationship with Roosevelt, what he would have made of his US alignment with the Comintern can well be imagined! And to then be appointed Secretary of State by Roosevelt and required to prosecute it!?
But still, Paradox can hardly be expected to have a little personal AI for each appointee, so this isn’t as bad as the HOI3 Ecuadorian Cabinet of 1944 (thanks @El Pip)! We will wave alt-history magic fairy dust over this appointment, imagining his early adoption of the anti-Nazi cause and his continuing close relationship through these time with Eleanor Roosevelt precipitated an earlier and more heart reconciliation than in OTL, allowing is appointment as SECSTATE here.
Perhaps in this ATL, The United States while a member of the Comintern is not such out of ideological affinity, and so Roosevelt strategically appointed a Secretary of State who would be wary of this alliance and be sure to keep his "friends" at a distance? Not that any of this appears on the official record, of course...
I'll not clutter up this thread by ranting about how terribly Paradox handles Stalin's purges. Suffice to say that while it's all fine for this ATL, with the logic given, in any other TL for him and others to still be alive by this point I'd fully expect the @El Pip treatment!
Note: as previously mentioned, I am using this Menzies instead of Robert Menzies, the Australian Prime Minister, that the game has in the role at present. Some things I just can’t let stand, and the surnames are the same, anyway. Robert Menzies did serve on the British War Cabinet at one point during the war, but not as Intel Chief.
This sort of thing is rampant in many leader files but perhaps most distressingly throughout the Soviet leader files. I swear half the ministers have the right surnames and wrong given names, which makes trying to find any information on them (especially RE: Purges) a royal pain. Er, a People's pain, none of that there monarchism in this glorious Comintern!
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Chapter 161: The Big Four in Tehran – Part 2 (am 1 February to am 2 February 1942)
Chapter 161: The Big Four in Tehran – Part 2 (am 1 February to am 2 February 1942)
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While the informal café rendezvous between Rosencrantz and Guildenstern had been occurring in town, Roosevelt and Stalin were having their first personal bilateral meeting at the Soviet Consulate. It was an introductory side-call prior to the main plenary session that would start later that day. It was a chance for them to get to know each other a little better, rather than to discuss detailed military matters. But Stalin, through his interpreter, was very warm in his congratulations to the American for “having picked the right side” in the war against Fascism. Roosevelt was his usual urbane and calm self. It may not have been a meeting of friends, but they discovered they could do business with each other.
Roosevelt and Stalin, the leaders of the two most powerful Comintern nations, get to know each other, Soviet Consulate, Tehran, 1 February 1942.
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At the same time Roosevelt and Stalin were sitting down for tea and pleasantries, Cennet arrived at the designated meeting place for her ‘urgent and delicate’ discussion with Agent Skitalec S3. It was a small book shop in downtown Tehran.
“Agent Skitalec, we finally meet. Uncle Ismet speaks very highly of you,” says Cennet with a small smile. “I remember my days training with the GRU in the Soviet Union very fondly. What is it I can do for you?”
"Agent Skitalec, we finally meet. Uncle Ismet speaks very highly of you."
“Ah yes - I'm told I should pass on the home-cooked gnocchi! But it is what the GRU can do for you, my dear,” he says. He hands over a plain manila envelope. “In here is a report from an ‘asset’ we have, let us say 'somewhere in the British establishment'. He has knowledge of this ‘Thorn’ Turkey is so interested in.”
“I see, but Interior Minister Kaya reports they apprehended the man believed to be the Thorn, exposed him and sent him back to Britain persona non grata.”
“With respect, Minister Kaya is wrong, we believe. The man Callan was an MI6 operative, but not the Thorn. There is more detail in here but think it through. The Thorn is not by all accounts a ‘declared’ agent operating under diplomatic cover. He is a plant or sleeper of some sort, working from inside or near to the official Turkish apparatus. We believe the information here, while it doesn’t provide a name, will give you what you need to track him down. And this time our British ‘friends’ won’t be able to claim diplomatic immunity for him.”
“Our heartfelt thanks, to you and the GRU. We will ensure your source is well protected but we must take this Thorn down if we can.”
“Understood, Miss Cennet. Good hunting.”
Skitalec slipped away, ensuring he was not followed – especially with all those British spies in town at the moment.
SkitalecS3 making his way back to the Soviet mission in Tehran, morning of 1 February 1942.
As Cennet headed back to the regional Interior Ministry HQ in Tehran, she pondered who the Thorn may be. Perhaps in was that British agent they recently apprehended in Athens? The man had close ties in the Turkish business and political communities. Kaya had not yet informed the Soviets about this latest arrest and the British may not yet realise their man had been taken, though they may be getting worried about his lack of communication by now. Anyway, Kaya’s people would analyse the information – it was up to them to sort it out. It wasn’t S.I.T.H. business. Yet, anyway.
---xxx---
That afternoon, the main meeting of the Big Four convened in the old Soviet Embassy to Iran, now a Consulate but still an important Post.
The Soviet Consulate, Tehran, 1 February 1942. Soon those front steps would be the backdrop for the iconic photos of the first ‘Big Four’ Meeting of the Second Great War.
The four delegations were arrayed around a long horseshoe-shaped table, with principals at the table and support staff sitting behind. The Soviets had arranged a live translation service, but most delegations preferred to use their own interpreters, who would sit just behind their leader when required. Foreign Ministers sat to the immediate left of their leaders and military chiefs to their right.
The first plenary session begins in Tehran, 1 February 1942.
The photo is actually of the Dumbarton Oaks meeting in 1944. Couldn’t find any good ones for the actual conference table arrangement for the OTL 1943 Tehran meeting.
The entire proceedings and conversations of the Conference will not be recounted here in full blow-by-blow detail. Instead, the major issues, commitments and actions arising will be summarised. All the preparatory material to support the meeting, including the operational situation in all major theatres of the global war, were covered in the last report and can be assumed as read for this conference.
---xxx---
Session 1: Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East
The first topic discussed was the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East. A map summarising the positions as at midnight on 31 January were illustrated on a wall map.
Churchill noted the British position in Egypt was perilous, with the Suez Canal again under direct threat from the latest Italian offensive.
Inönü observed, with some irritation, that the British had once again refused Turkey transit rights across British controlled territory, including Iraq. With Syria in Vichy hands, this made any direct Turkish support impossible – though Turkey too was threatened by Italy’s advances, especially in the Arabian GNR.
And Roosevelt said the US base in Rhodes was still a relatively small one and offered no ready solution to Churchill’s problems.
It was at this point that the British revealed their hopes for support in North Africa. They advocated American amphibious landings in North Africa. Not in distant (and still neutral) Vichy French holdings in Morocco or Algeria – but in Libya itself! This, Churchill argued, would badly undermine the Italian presence, ruin their supply lines and lead to their entire force in North Africa being pocketed and destroyed, let alone relieving pressure on the Suez Canal.
Plan Torch – Britain’s suggestion for landings in North Africa, to be conducted by the US, with Turkish support if forthcoming, some time by the middle of 1942.
Amid some questioning of whether the British would put sufficient forces of their own into the eastern part of this supposed pincer, the US, Britain and Turkey agreed to have their respective military staffs review the idea in detail before any decision was taken.
It was at this point that the Turks produced their own little ‘surprise suggestion’ for consideration in the Mediterranean theatre. They wanted a contingency plan formed to invade Sicily, as a joint US-Turkish operation.
“It could be before, at the same time as or after an invasion of North Africa, if that happens, whichever seems the most appropriate at the time,” said Inönü, acknowledging the earlier British proposal. “If the US could commit to landings on at least one of the beaches noted on this map, Turkey would commit to landing a full corps on one of the others. But one of them should be Messina if possible, to secure the straits and cut the rest of Sicily off from reinforcement from the Italian peninsula.”
Another buzz of conversation went around the room, as the interpreters did their work, then Inönü continued. “This operation should badly distract the Axis, especially Italy, and would best be timed in conjunction with a possible Comintern offensive on the Patriotic Front, stretching the enemy in a variety of locations. Ideally, North Africa should already have been secured, although an attack on Sicily should also disrupt and distract the Italians if they remain there in force.”
This idea, Plan Green, was also referred to a military staff committee, though there was general agreement that Sicily would be a suitable target for later operations. The British of course argued for landings in Libya first and quickly, followed by an eventual landing on Sicily by the US and Turkey “in due course.”
---xxx---
A Matter of Principle
As the meeting broke for a short refreshment, Aras took his British counterpart, Ernest Bevin, into a corner of the room for a ‘pull-aside’ meeting.
“Ernest, I wanted to take this opportunity to apologise for the little misunderstanding over that ‘cultural attaché’ of yours. He was detained by our people a little longer than he should have been, perhaps, before his diplomatic immunity was verified and he was released. Though we make no apology for his initial detention and protest his flagrant misuse of that immunity to engage in activities not in keeping with his diplomatic status.”
“Well, I’m glad to hear you acknowledge that, Tewfik,” replied Bevin with an impassive face. “I must say the whole Foreign Office was outraged at his extended detention, though he did say afterwards he was generally well treated after his initial stay in a prison cell. We really must respect the immunity diplomats from both our countries rely upon.”
“True, true. It won’t happen again. But again, I must also deplore the use to which you have put this particular diplomat. These things happen from time to time, we both know that. And I’m well aware of your liking for the ‘cloak-and-dagger’ stuff, Ernest. But our intelligence agencies had an agreement. Your man’s actions were inconsistent with both that pledge and his status as a diplomat. You must realise that another episode would have more serious repercussions than just the expulsion of the individual concerned. It undermines trust and the sanctity of the diplomatic service that immunity seeks to protect. And specifically, it means all your staff in our country are now automatically considered by our Interior Ministry to be intelligence operatives. This is not good for our relations, nor for the ability of your people to do their proper job. I will do what I can to both keep Kaya in check and persuade Ögel not to escalate by trying to run agents in the UK. We have a real enemy we are concentrating on - in Italy.”
“I understand and would appreciate there being no retaliations in kind. I will not allow my own diplomats to be used in this way again, I assure you. I must also observe our own Viscount Templewood will not go easy on anyone who did try to attempt anything in the UK – I have heard disturbing rumours of what your S.I.T.H. operatives are capable of. They mustn’t try it in Britain. It is in both our interests to keep our attack dogs away from each other.”
Aras noted to himself that Bevin had made no undertaking at all in relation to potential British ‘illegal’ agents – those not operating under diplomatic cover.
“Oh, and by the way, Tewfik,” offered Bevin nonchalantly as he made to leave. “It almost slipped my mind, but the Foreign Office has been approached by the family of one of our expat businessmen who seems to have gone missing during a trip to Athens to sign a shipping agreement, part of our lend-lease program. I would appreciate it if you could check up on it. See what may have happened to him. His wife is very worried and he is an important conduit for the verygenerous economic assistance we provide you.”
Aras was wondering whether or how the British might raise the issue of their missing agent. Menzies had given no hint of it to Ögel during their intelligence sharing meeting the previous evening. They were clearly still trying to preserve their cover story, but Bevin had delivered a not-very-subtle implication about the large British lend-lease program, implying a link between the safety of their man and its maintenance, expecting some quid pro quo. Nicely done, really, he had to admit.
“I hadn’t heard of this myself but if your people can pass on the necessary details, we’ll have the police search for him. We will see what we can do. We wouldn’t want this incident to become a Thorn in our side, now would we, Ernest?”
It looks like those S.I.T.H. monsters would not be getting free reign with the captured British spy after all, though Aras to himself. It would be best if he was eventually repatriated in decent condition. And I will enjoy irritating Kaya again whilst pretending to rail against this British blackmailing.
Though at this point, Aras was unaware of the information that had been provided that morning by the GRU. If the man proved to be the Thorn, arranging his release to the British ‘unspoiled’ may prove rather more difficult!
---xxx---
Session 2: Central Asia
This session was led off by Stalin. It was time for the Soviets to start trying to extract some mileage from the talks. Their concern was that the entry of Afghanistan into the war, which would otherwise be nothing more than a flea-bite, exacerbated their desperate situation on the Far East Front, where a renewed Japanese offensive was pushing west. Towards Afghanistan. The Soviets could not afford the distraction and certainly not a link-up between the two.
“I thank our Turkish colleagues for their prompt and effective response,” Stalin said, and paused briefly as the interpreters relayed his words to their principals. This process always slowed down the discussions and sometimes took a little of the nuance out of exchanges but was the reality of such meetings. Best to keep the words simple. “But Britain shares a long border with the Afghans. It would be useful if you were to open up a second front and strike at Kabul, to end this thing quickly. Yet you remain neutral as they attack us. Can you not do more?”
Churchill professed great difficulty in defending the many fronts they must now contend with and keeping the homeland safe from the threat of German invasion, let alone opening a new one so far away from all their other commitments. It was the same argument he had used with Turkey in Sofiya. Britain would remain neutral unless the Afghans declared war on them as well. Stalin was not impressed, but nor was he surprised - having been told this would happen by the Turks.
Inönü pledged to drive for Kabul if possible but was uncertain he would have sufficient forces available to do so, if the Afghans rallied and concentrated their army to defend their capital properly.
Stalin concluded the discussion by observing they were doing their best to maintain a ‘Europe First’ focus, but it was becoming harder to do so. He used that as a segue to the next discussion topic.
---xxx---
Session 3: The Soviet Far Eastern Front
This is where Stalin really stated his case for Coalition – specifically American – support. The request over Afghanistan had really only made a point in the lead up to this item. The next wall map to be unfurled showed the Pacific seaboard of the Far East theatre. Essentially, Stalin demanded a Second Front on the mainland of North East Asia be established as soon as possible. The map illustrated potential entry points. One was via the last remaining Soviet port in the region at Petropavlovsk Kamcackji, where a US Expeditionary Force might disembark. The other three were options for amphibious landings at either occupied Soviet ports or Pusan in Korea. Some were more realistic than others.
“We need something to distract the Japanese and their puppets from their remorseless march west,” Stalin concluded. “President Roosevelt, I understand it may be unlikely you could generate a large-scale landing immediately, though perhaps some expeditionary forces would be useful in the interim as we are so short of troops there. But a landing by no later than the end of 1942 – mid-year would be preferable – is vital for our security. Japan’s current operations in the Pacific and South East Asia just don’t seem to be sufficient distraction for them at the moment.”
Roosevelt was sympathetic but non-committal. The US was having big problems just holding on to the Philippines and had already lost Wake, Guam and Midway Islands and the westernmost island of the Aleutians chain. They were in no position to conduct major offensive operations on the East Asian mainland yet, though may be once their war machine had begun to gear up more fully.
Once again, the question was referred to military planners, this time a Soviet-American planning team. MacArthur and Shaposhnikov and their key advisers were soon in deep discussions in a side room. They reported back to the plenary session a little later that the recommended approach was to give a commitment to open a second East Asian front ‘at a time and in a location to be determined by both sides’ but that the detachment of some expeditionary forces might be possible more quickly and would be examined in detail by staff.
---xxx---
Session 4: South East Asia
After another break for refreshment, the principals reconvened for the final formal session of the meeting. Following a pessimistic report by MacArthur on the chances of Luzon being held against the powerful Japanese invasion there, Churchill had his Chief of Staff Sir Alan Brooke present on the Allied situation in South East Asia. It was similarly pessimistic.
Churchill then delivered another surprise to the meeting – another British proposal for US naval landings! They sought an immediate intervention against Bangkok, in an attempt to knock Thailand out of the war. They insisted Axis resistance there would be weak and a quick victory might be had, with Thai forces dispersed against Burma and in Malaya. A secondary attack on Saigon in Japanese-occupied Indo-China might also be useful as a further distraction to the Japanese – and was well away from their massive troop concentrations in North East Asia, Brooke pointed out.
Acknowledging his proposal for North Africa and Stalin’s for North Asia, Churchill stressed the Allied position in Malaya was dire, with the resource-rich area and key port and naval base of Singapore likely to fall into Japanese hands without such an intervention. This would free Japanese forces for further mischief, whether against British, American or Soviet interests.
This was yet another proposal that would need to be sent for Coalition military analysis as to feasibility and possible timing, then back to the principals in respective capitals to assess relative merits against the other Coalition priorities around the world.
“But, even more perhaps than in Egypt, we face our darkest hour in South East Asia," Churchill finished with a dramatic flourish. "Without prompt and steadfast action, all may be lost there, to the detriment of us all.”
---xxx---
A ‘Chance’ Meeting
With the final session concluded, the participants began to muster for the obligatory photo opportunity. B.J. Guildenstern took a quick chance for an aside with Churchill.
“I have passed a message to a certain expatriate newspaperman, Prime Minister. My superiors wanted you to know that there is a strong wellspring of goodwill for Britain in official quarters back in D.C. Despite current broader arrangements.”
B.J. Guildenstern and Winston Churchill - a message passed.
“My thanks, General. I believe arrangements are being made. Do let Mr Astor know his support is appreciated by a grateful nation and will not be forgotten.”
“I will do so, Prime Minister. Ah, I think our Soviet hosts are making the photo arrangements now.”
“So they are. How tiresome. I must go and change. I felt like the proverbial wallflower at this meeting and am afraid our requests may have fallen on deaf ears.”
“Time will tell, Prime Minister, time will tell.”
---xxx---
The soon-to-become famous photo of the Big Four at Tehran was taken some minutes later. It reflected the tenor of the meeting. Roosevelt and Inönü got on very well. Turkey would become the vector through which Soviet requests were often passed on to the Americans. [A little narrative conceit to cover the fact that any objectives desired by the Soviets would need to be set in-game by Turkey.] Churchill was worried and feeling rather pensive and a little left out of things among the Comintern coalition partners. And Stalin, as always, was suspicious and self-contained, assuming anything he really wanted done would probably have to be done by the Soviets themselves, however much Turkey may try to assist them.
The Big Four at Tehran, evening of 1 February 1942. From the left, Roosevelt, Inönü, Churchill and Stalin.
As the photos were being taken, Turkish analysts were going through the information the GRU had supplied. It was beginning to look like the British spy captured in Athens could not be the Thorn. Suspicion was moving closer to involvement within the Turkish bureaucracy. And the nature of the Thorn’s role that the GRU informant had shared pointed to someone more in the realm of influence and information gathering than outright espionage. Perhaps someone attending this very conference, in one capacity or another. But more pieces needed to be connected before they could have a good idea of who it may be.
Oblivious to these considerations, the senior delegates attended the obligatory conference dinner. As much a part of the official proceedings as the formal plenary sessions.
Churchill was still trying to persuade Stalin to support his various ‘soft underbelly’ plans in the Med and South East Asia. ‘Big Four’ Dinner, Tehran, 1 February 1942. Inönü is just out of shot, sitting to Roosevelt’s right (on the left of the photo).
From his expression, perhaps Roosevelt was thinking about how put-upon the US seemed to be at this point in the war, still suffering the initial onslaught from the Japanese and with calls for not just massive lend-lease shipments to the other three Coalition partners and now also with multiple requests for intervention by forces he hadn’t yet had a chance to properly assemble.
---xxx---
Midnight in Tehran
At midnight, a hotel door in Tehran crashed open, one of Kaya’s teams was armed and looking for the man they were now certain was the Thorn. None other than supposed leftist newspaper editor and Turkish propaganda consultant Tom Rosencrantz!
“Curses, he’s gone!” cried out the Secret Police Lieutenant in frustration. “We were too late.”
“Indeed – someone has tipped him off,” replied Cennet calmly. “And I think I know who it was.”
Because of his past connections to Turkish propaganda services and now senior position in America’s peak strategic intelligence office, Guildenstern had been under subtle observation during his stay in Tehran. The pieces now fell into place. Perhaps he was working with the US all along, she thought to herself, although there was no proof. In any case, the US were now allies and Guildenstern was untouchable, a senior member of the US delegation and under diplomatic immunity [yes indeed, @El Pip].
But Rosencrantz was not.
“Find a way to screen access to the British delegation if you can – especially their MI6 contingent here in Tehran," said the Lieutenant to one of his sergeants. "Perhaps Rosencrantz will try to join them to effect an escape in the morning when they all fly out to Baghdad. Once he is with them there will be nothing we can do without provoking a catastrophic diplomatic incident.”
---xxx---
Early that morning, Turkish security around the British delegation was very tight. Surely no-one could make a dash through without being caught? All the secret police operatives had pictures of Rosencrantz and were on the alert for anyone in disguise trying to slip through to join the British convoy as it left for the airport.
“There – that man, over there, slipping in late towards their motorcade from the street outside the hotel. He is Rosencrantz’s size and build – apprehend him!” The lieutenant believes he may have their man.
The man was grabbed and frisked before he could join the British group. He had no incriminating evidence on him. But he did have a diplomatic passport. And on closer inspection, it was not Rosencrantz.
“Tom Stoppard, British Foreign Office, Humanitarian Section, at your service. I’ve just returned from helping a refugee in dire circumstances. Here’s my diplomatic passport and accreditation for the British delegation here. Sorry to have surprised you chaps, but I was held up getting back and ran it a bit fine.”
“Hmmph, let him through,” grumped the police lieutenant, regarding the diplomat with open suspicion. “We’re under orders to make sure we don’t interfere with foreign diplomats. But Mr Stoppard, whatever you have been playing at, we will find out. Don’t be surprised if your persona becomes non grata in the UGNR after this!”
“Oh, my dear chap, how melodramatic. Now, I’ll just be on my way.”
Stoppard gives Menzies a short nod as he walks past to join one of the cars towards the rear of the motorcade, which soon sets off for the airport. Much as some of Kaya’s hotheads may want to screen individuals as they file their way on to the waiting RAF transport aircraft, they are restrained from doing so. They watched in frustration as the aircraft taxied away and took off to the west.
---xxx---
As it happened, they were barking up entirely the wrong tree. MI6 would never have been so clumsy as to try to infiltrate the Thorn onto Churchill’s aircraft. Not only would it have been likely to fail, but the diplomatic risk from involving their Prime Minister in such an escapade would have been completely unacceptable. While the dinner guests had consumed their toothsome repast, Stoppard – the Thorn’s chief handler from MI6 – had provided him with his new papers and disguise. Rosencrantz was already on his way to Iraq by another passenger aircraft the night before, under a Romanian cover identity.
The Thorn in the guise of Count Vladimir Dracul, a displaced Transylvanian noble supposedly in the diplomatic service of Romania. Though in his case, the diplomatic passport was forged. It was enough to get him out of the country – had he been checked and challenged the emergency identity would have unravelled.
When Perse heard about what had happened, she was distraught.
“I feel so betrayed – I thought he was my friend, but he was nothing but a cad, blackguard and spy, taking advantage of an old friendship,” Perse sobbed quietly, using a handkerchief solicitously provided by her boss, Field Marshal Calistar.
“There, there, my dear, the Perfidious British will stoop to anything to keep their fading imperialist hopes alive,” he soothes. “Turkey is your home now and I will personally protect you from these British attempts to interfere with our efforts and your wonderful work for the Glorious Union.”
“Oh, thank you Field Marshal, I really do appreciate it.”
Perse in Tehran, talking to Calistar, 2 February 1942: “Oh, thank you Field Marshal, I really do appreciate it.”
“In fact,” he says, having an idea [thanks @stnylan], “If you wished it, I could arrange for you to be granted full Turkish citizenship. It would reward your work here and open opportunities you would otherwise not be able to take advantage of.”
“Could you? I really feel as much or more Turkish now as I do British, after this last episode. I will take my leave now – I must supervise the next front page for the Istanbul Times covering this momentous meeting.”
“Of course, my dear Persephonee, go with my best personal wishes.”
Later, Calistar is debriefed about the double-dealing of another former employee who had forewarned Rosencrantz, meaning both had managed to get away untouched.
Calistar cursed to Cennet: “The lousy bastards – both Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead to me now! And that Tom Stoppard character has a lot to answer for!”
---xxx---
Coming Up: What will the military staff make of all the various suggestions made during the Big Four meeting in Tehran? Which plans will be given the operational go-ahead, in what order and when? Is this now the end of the espionage-related diplomatic tensions between Britain and Turkey – an episode done, dusted and put into the past? There are still some loose ends to be tied up: have we heard the last of the Thorn? Will Perse become a Turkish citizen and make the final break with her Old Country? Will events on the battlefield permit the Coalition the luxury of spring or summer offensives and diversionary naval landings in 1942? Or will Malaya and the Philippines fall, the Suez be taken and the Axis sustain their attacks on the Patriotic Front, hoping to do in summer 1942 what they were unable to finish in 1941?
