Chapter 39: “The Path to Glory is Paved with Choices” (10 January 1938)
Chapter 39: “The Path to Glory is Paved with Choices” (10 January 1938)
The Turkish Cabinet meeting of 10 January 1938 occurred against a backdrop of recent glory, but also of war weariness. While the territory and economy of the Turkish Republic had expanded dramatically in less than a year, the popularity of the government had declined almost as quickly. Similarly, Turkey was now widely reviled and feared by its neighbours, except for the loyal and pliant Romanian regime.
Atatürk presides over the important Cabinet Meeting of 10 January 1938. The choice is basically for war now, or later.
The Cabinet would consider a series of key questions, to gradually eliminate unlikely, unworkable or simply dangerous options for further expansion where the likely gains would simply not justify clear risks. If any feasible options remained, they would be considered for implementation, when the matter of timing and forces required would come into play. This may be for immediate implementation (ie as soon as forces can be reorganised and redeployed); for execution at a selected time (a delay of a few months, where more preparation or the observation of strategic developments is deemed preferable); or as a contingency plan for possible later adoption when circumstances may be more favourable.
In the lead up to the Cabinet Meeting, the Ankara Strategic Dialogue discussion was held in the capital at the prestigious Gazi University. Attendees included well-known strategic academics and commentators Professor Markkur (US Institute for War Studies); Lord El Pip (Chief Executive of the International Organisation of Slower-than-Real-Time Analysis), prominent journalist Nukeluru Slorepi and the well-known Turkish Firebrand and anti-Persian advocate, known only by his alias of The Kelebek Kompozitör [English: TheButterflyComposer].
Gazi University, Ankara, founded by Kemal Ataturk in 1926 as a teacher training institution.
Foreign Minister Aras, who convened the dialogue at Gazi University, had previously provided documents to the Cabinet with the varied arguments each contributor had put in recent days. "These views were provided under our own 'Gazi House Rules'", Aras announces proudly.
"Oh, you mean like the British 'Chatham House Rules', where the views of contributors can be quoted, but not attributed, to protect their confidence?" asks one Cabinet member.
"Almost," smiles Aras. "We tell them their views will not be attributed, but attribute them anyway, just not in public." Security Minister Kaya and Intelligence Head Ogel chuckle at this.
Initial Ideas
First, Chief of Staff Örlungat outlined the technical options, first discounting anything considered completely unrealistic.
General map of central Europe, January 1938.
“As we have decided previously, Turkey has neither the capacity nor desire to engage in any amphibious campaigns of any size, so only neighbouring countries were assessed for involuntary inclusion in the Greater Republic,” Örlungat begins. He has been in Cabinet long enough now to have learned the value of a well-chosen euphemism. “Of those, we of course have eliminated our prospective alliance partners, the Soviet Union. So too the Anglo-French Entente, including the British puppet Iraq.” The easiest conclusions are always drawn first.
“We have excluded Austria due to its close relationship to Germany.” [Ed: and because it would probably break the game scripts and be too gamey.] “Poland and Czechoslovakia are prospective opponents to the Germans and would be very difficult to attack through the shared border of our ally, Romania. They both have considerable armies and would not be easy to defeat.” [And again, doing so would probably derail the game, and also get in the way of the assumed eventual German-Soviet war we are banking on to break things open.]
Örlungat continues: “Italy is not yet aligned with the Axis, and their removal as a potential German ally would be very useful. But without the support of the French and British Navies they would control the Mediterranean and, frankly, we assess their defeat would be beyond us, especially at this stage in our military development. An attack on them may well force them into the Axis early and could risk dragging Germany into the equation as well. They have been discounted as a serious target.”
‘Hungary for Answers’
“So, that leaves us with Hungary and Persia,” says Foreign Minister Aras, cutting in. “Hungary is already in the Axis. We can’t be absolutely certain, but the risk of a direct response from Germany would be extremely high. If we could beat them, would the gain of a few more cities be worth the risk of early destruction by the German war machine?” He has spoken the question everyone else around the table has been thinking about for days now.
Removing the vile Magyar regime would be a poke
in the eye for Herr Hitler and the Fascist camp.
Inönü decides to inject himself into the discussion. “Örlungat, what are the military considerations? Let’s think them through first.”
Örlungat, who has of course prepared for this question (it’s a pre-arranged ‘Dorothy Dixer’ from Inönü, the statesman-general), says there are two major factors. “First, Hungary doesn’t actually share a land border with Germany. And although Austria is now very closely aligned with Germany, we understand they do not have a transit rights agreement in place. So, technically, even if Germany declared war on us in support of Hungary, it may be that they could not directly intervene. At least until they make suitable arrangements with Austria.” This gives the Cabinet pause for thought.
“Second, like the Romanian campaign, we would only need to take two cities (Pecs and Budapest) to force them to surrender, and both are vulnerable to a quick assault from the south. We could also ask our Romanian allies to make a diversionary attack in the east on Debrecen. It could be over quickly with good planning, surprise and a little luck.” Örlungat unveils an operational map, showing the proposed Hungarian campaign. It is very simple. “We have called this Case Aqua.”
“But it is a great risk nonetheless," Aras points out. “The minute the Germans gain access, they will come down on us like a ton of bricks. And even if that doesn’t happen for a while and we succeed in taking down Hungary first, it leaves us at war with Germany and at their mercy, without us having a major ally to rely on for support, and them looking for any way they can to get at us.” Heads begin to nod around the table. These are telling arguments.
“Acknowledged, Aras,” Örlungat replies. “These same thoughts have concerned the General Staff as well. We have not yet had a chance to develop our AT or AA capabilities, nor are even the first foundations of the new Calistar Line completed. While the Germans have not yet completed their rearmament, they can still field very strong forces.”
"Though they would need to leave troops in place to guard their current borders, with France, Poland and Czechoslovakia,” interjects Army Chief Yamut. “Perhaps they would not be in a position to devote such overwhelming forces our way after all. If we took down Hungary and created some forward defensive lines in combination with our Romanian allies, we might be able to hold out.” The mood swings again: people are not convinced, but they are starting to wonder.
“For a while,” Armaments Minister Calistar chimes in. “But indefinitely? How long would it last? Italy may join in later, or Germany might decide to come through Czechoslovakia or Poland to get at us. After all, we did it to Yugoslavia the same way. Live by the sword, die by the sword. And all before we have managed to create a credible last ditch defence for the Republic, should such a ‘bold’ gamble not pay off.”
“And for what gain?” asks Intelligence Head Ögel. “If we were to defeat Hungary we would be best off making them a ‘puppet buffer’ and using their army to provide an additional bulwark to our north, removing an Axis stooge. That would be good. But the price would be bringing an angry Germany into war with us two or three years earlier than we had been anticipating. I’m not sure the gain, good though it might be, would be worth it.”
At this point, President Atatürk motions that he wishes to speak. He is looking decidedly drawn and pale and speaks more softly than has been his previous habit, though with no less authority. “Very well, we have heard enough for now on this option. But what are we comparing it to. The Path to Glory is paved with many choices.”
The Persian Question
“You will all remember Case Green from our major strategic review last year, after we had defeated Greece,” says Örlungat as he resumes his presentation. His staff distributes another operational map to each Cabinet member. “The equation for an invasion of Persia has not really changed in a military sense. Our troops and leadership are more seasoned than last time we contemplated this. Our small Air Force would once again have superiority. But the distances are great, communications and supply lines long and the terrain difficult. No infrastructure improvement has yet been possible. It will take considerable time to redeploy to the Persian border and we would be invading through a narrow corridor.
The terrain will be difficult. Mount Damavand, north-east of Tehran.
Persia’s NU is assessed at 74.9%. This means 6/7 of the available VPs would need to be seized to force a surrender: all bar Bandar e ‘Abbas in the south would need to be taken. Logistics, terrain and time are assessed as the biggest enemies: even without Romanian reinforcement and attacking on a narrow front, the battle-hardened Turkish Army, if massed in sufficient numbers, should easily outnumber and outperform the Persians.
“Our Romanian allies will not be of much use on this campaign. They would be better spent guarding our northern borders in the Balkans while we deploy our army to do the fighting in Persia.” Örlungat pauses, then looks each Cabinet member in the eye, one by one. “Our recommendation is, if we choose this option, we send virtually the whole Turkish Army to do the job. If it is to be done, it must be done as quickly as possible. We can’t afford to get bogged down thousands of kilometers away from our primary threat. And leaving even half our army back in the Balkans wouldn't make any difference if we were seriously invaded by a major power. The Romanians actually outnumber us by approaching 2-1. We would have to trust them with the new Balkan empire and the Motherland. The Calistar Line will not be in any substantial state to do its job for at least a year, possibly two.” Calistar himself looks a little queasy at this.
“There is still considerable risk in this approach,” opines Aras. “There is still a chance Italy or Hungary, for example, could decide to take a shot at us while our back is towards them. Persia remains largely trending towards Fascist alignment after all, even if they did grant us military access last year. Romania’s forces may provide some mitigation, but we cannot rely on or direct them the same way we can our own people. As we speak, they have probably already begun demobilising. On reflection, that was probably what delayed their useful entry into the war on Yugoslavia.” Thinking back to that time, he shivers a little at the memory of Luca Brasi. Even in those photos at that Cabinet briefing last year, the man had the look of death in his eyes.
“But we assess that remains fairly unlikely,” responds Ögel. “I’d also be concerned about pushing the Soviets too far, but that said they have their own preoccupations. We hear Stalin has conducted massive purges in their Army. They are not ready for war, and Persia is a Fascist fellow-traveller anyway. And the Allies are even worse appeasers than the Axis!”
“What about timing,” asks Inönü. “If we do pull the trigger on Case Green, when would be the best time?”
“Diplomatically, I’d want just a little while to see what else happens in Europe,” says Aras. “Test reactions to our absorption of the Balkans for just a little longer. A month would probably do it.”
“We’d need at least that long to reorganise, get our new commanders settled in and redeploy,” says Army Chief Yamut. “This time I’d recommend we use strategic redeployment, even if it consumes more in supplies. We just can’t afford to have the bulk of the Army down south for any longer than necessary. And a month or two would give a chance for the worst of the winter weather to pass – better for the offensive.”
“The additional oil – for our own purposes, and denying it to potential enemies if we wish – would be useful,” observes Armaments Minister Calistar. “As with our Balkan conquests, if we are going to do this we’d want the advantage of the conquest – it would have to be that to make it worthwhile – for as long as possible. I’d say we’d want the occupation in place before the end of this year at the latest. We won’t be able to afford a large garrison, so we may have to put up with revolt and civil uprising. But Persia would at least be pretty safe from Axis attack, unless either India or the Middle East fall to Japan or Italy. That hardly seems likely.” A bold prediction perhaps, but reasonable with the facts available to Calistar at present. “We’d be able to hang on to Persia even if we had to surrender our new Balkan holdings. And it could provide a useful trade bridge to our prospective Russian allies, if it was ever needed in the future.”
“And we could revenge ourselves on the Persians,” observes Security Minister Kaya darkly. “We’ve never forgiven those vile Safavids and their successors. It would be another Chaldiran, but this time we would finish the job properly.” Kaya’s idea of ‘finishing a job properly’ is pretty similar in nature to Luca Brasi’s approach to life. And death.
The Battle of Chaldiran took place on 23 August 1514 and ended with a decisive victory for the Ottoman Empire over the Safavid Empire. As a result, the Ottomans annexed eastern Anatolia and northern Iraq from Safavid Iran for the first time. It marked the first Ottoman expansion into eastern Anatolia, and the halt of the Safavid expansion to the west. Despite the Iranians briefly reconquering the area over the course of the centuries, the battle marked the first event that would eventually, through many wars and treaties later, lead to its permanent conquest, until the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire centuries later. By the Chaldiran war the Ottomans also gained temporary control of what is now north-western Iran.
A choice is made
There seems a lot more interest and enthusiasm around the table now for this Persian idea than there had been about dealing with the Magyars. But there are still some aspects to be considered.
“Hungary,” interrupts Atatürk. “If we want to remove them from the Axis list of assets, what would the timing be for that.”
“It would need to be immediate,” Aras says, surprising everyone, who assumed he was completely against the idea. He does hate his Fascists. “No, I’m not in favour of it, but being realistic, if we wanted to do it, it would have to be done straight away, before Austria grants access and a land border on us to Germany, as we’d have to assume the worst and prepare for war with the Axis faction leader. Austria is teetering and could fall under German sway at any moment.”
“I agree with Aras,” chimes in Örlungat. “It would have to be as soon as possible, while we and the Romanians are in the field and ready to go. A quick march to just short of the border, using our normal deception method, hoping to catch them unprepared. And we’d have to prepare some blocking lines to the west, in case Germany does declare war and convinces Austria to let them through.” He marks a couple of dashed lines on the map. “It would stretch our forces thin though, as we'd need to take Pécs and Budapest very quickly, then assume the defensive.”
Discussion around the table winds down. Everyone that wished to have had their say. They know the purpose of the discussion is basically to allow the leadership (Atatürk and Inönü) to have the pros and cons set out for them so they can make their decision. No namby-pamby Western-style voting in this Cabinet.
An aide helps Atatürk to get up from his chair and walk to his personal office near the Cabinet Room. The other members of the Cabinet take great care to make no comment and show no expression, but each of them is either worried, ambitious, or both. The father of the nation is clearly ailing. What will this mean for the future?
In private, Atatürk at last lets the pain and tiredness show on his face. “Ismet, I must tell you now. The doctors have made their assessment. It is not good. I have cirrhosis of the liver. I will soon need to announce this publicly, but for now let us keep it to ourselves. I'm not sure yet how much longer I have, but will continue on until the end.”
Inönü bows his head a little in acknowledgement, but says nothing. He knows Atatürk will simply want to ignore any personal problem for as long as possible and try to keep his routines going. He will also brook no sentimentality or weakness, whether it is in regard to his personal health or Turkey’s Path to Glory.
“So Ismet, I will give you my views on the easy part of this deliberation,” continues Atatürk. “Then I will defer to you with regard to the more difficult one. You will have to bear the ultimate consequences for that, as we both know you will inherit the mantle of national leadership after I relinquish it in death.”
“Clearly, Case Aqua is the card you don’t pick in the three-card trick. Germany would declare war and, in the long run, it would be immaterial whether they were able to counter-strike us straight away or after a short wait. It would also go against our long term agreed strategy of securing a factional ally first before courting war with the Axis. We need the time now to take advantage of our conquests, build our forces and defences, safeguard the Motherland as best we can, then take advantage of Russia’s endless manpower and steppes to bleed the Germans dry, while relying on the Allies to deal with Italy in the Mediterranean. An attack on Hungary is, for the foreseeable future, a non-starter. So we either play the Persia card, or take the rain-check and wait for time to pass and our strength to build.” This is in part a test for Inönü, to once again see if the has the mettle to lead the nation after Atatürk is gone.
Inönü nods in agreement. “Yes, we can reconsider Hungary once there is a general war afoot and we have the rest of the world as our allies against Big Fascism. So, to the Persian Question. For me, the answer to that is “Yes”. It removes another Fascist sympathiser from the mix, grants oil and resource benefits, and some LS, IC and MP (though not a great deal, especially when balanced against a need to safeguard against revolt). But worth it. Sitting around doing nothing will not see us advance on the Path to Glory.” It is now Atatürk’s turn to nod.
“As to when? I agree with the discussions in Cabinet. If we are to do this, Mustafa Kemal, it must be soon. Let’s extract the most benefit out of our conquest as soon as we can, get it done, and have our troops back in position again before things hot up too much in Europe. We should strip almost all border forces away and concentrate them into the two Corps that will strike Persia: we want to keep that offensive rolling continuously with fresh troops pushing through reorganising ones to keep the enemy on the run.”
“We will rely on Romania to be our deterrent in the Balkans, centralise a minimal response force for revolts in the Balkan Vilayets, and perhaps create a small reserve in Istanbul of whatever forces are left over from the two main attack corps for Case Green. New units coming out of production and training can also gather there. If the worst happens and we are attacked while knee-deep in Persian blood, then they can either respond or try to hold the nascent Calistar Line while we redeploy back from Persia.” He rises and helps Atatürk to his feet.
“Yes, agreed,” Atatürk concludes simply. They return to the Cabinet. Instructions are given for detailed plans to be prepared. Operation Chaldiran will be the next episode in Turkey’s inevitable victory.
Honours and Awards
“The final item on the agenda for today’s meeting is the formal approval of Battle Honours for the recent War in Yugoslavia,” Atatürk notes. “Örlungat!"
The Chief of Staff reads out the proposed unit battle citations. The number of these large and decisive engagements indicates how hard and prolonged the fighting was.
“All work and no play makes Johnny Turk a dull boy”
As they break up and start to move out, Calistar remarks on the new play he has heard about, that will be performed in Ankara in the spring. “A Max Bialystock production, I hear. The name of the work is being kept a secret – apparently, it won’t be disclosed until the Opening Night, to Maximise the mystery! We don’t get much of this kind of thing in Ankara, more’s the pity. I'll be going.”
“Yes, I hear it will be a ‘special treat’ for the political classes,” says Security Minister Kaya. “I’ll be watching it with ‘special interest’.” He smells a rat. But then again, he always does. About everything and everyone.
“I intend to go too,” pipes up Aras. “I’m hoping it will be a paean of praise for our forthcoming Comintern partnership.” Always the biased intellectual!
It seems the whole Cabinet intends to see the new play when it premiers. It should provide an appropriate morale boost before the serious business of war once again beckons Turkey along the Path to Glory.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch …
Braanszon and Persephonee, having temporarily given up on their attempts to think of a new name for Turkey (not helped by some very enthusiastic celebrating of the recent final victory to conclude the New Balkan War), think about the night before, as they survey the wreckage in Braanszon's apartment.
It was a memorable party. Persephonee can be seen in the centre enjoying herself. Braanszon was probably already passed out at this stage!
The morning after, Braanszon could indeed remember nothing. Including who the hell this dude crashed on his sofa may be! He only knew that his head hurt and his apartment was a mess.
Persephonee drags Braanszon out the door (he is happy enough to leave his trashed pad) to pay Bialystock and Bloom a visit and check on their investment.
The last few weeks have been a whirr of activity for Bialystock and Bloom. They now have new offices in uptown Istanbul and a glamorous receptionist, Ulla.
Max is looking weary. He has been averaging three or four little old lady investors a day since Christmas. That’s a considerable rate of effort, even for a legendary Broadway producer who used to be as famous for his casting couch as his productions!
Max alternates between worry and greed, while Leo contemplates a nicely cooked set of books.
Bloom has been busily working the books, coping with ever increasing amounts: they have already doubled the estimated costs of the play, with each investor promised a 20% cut of the profits (of which, of course, there won’t be any). 50% for that well-connected Guildenstern, who has invested more than anyone else. Leo estimates the combined shareholders own about 500% of the play by now!
“Leo, what if the play is a hit?” asks Max.
“Then the Department of Justice owns 100% of Bialystock and Bloom.”
“Oh, Leo, I’m depressed. Do me a favour. Open the safe. I want to see the money.”
Leo humours him and opens the safe, which is filled with neat stacks of large denomination bills. Max kneels down and inhales the smell of many lira.
“Ah, that’s better!” Max takes out a wad of cash – he has been spending big in recent days.
“Max,” says Leo, still worried about the scheme. “Maybe we should go easy on the spending.”
“Why? Take it when you can get it. Flaunt it, baby, flaunt it!”
“But if something should... God forbid... go wrong, at least we could give them some of their money back. It would look better in court.” Leo starts nervously twisting his scrap of security blanket again.
“Stop talking like that, you white mouse! Nothing's going to go wrong. As a matter of fact, today I am taking steps to ensure total disaster. I am about to hire none other than Roger De Bris.”
Leo searches for a photo from the pile of prospective cast members they have been considering. “Roger De Bris. Roger De Bris. Oh yes, the director. Is he good... I mean bad?”
“Roger De Bris is the worst director that ever lived.”
“Do you think he'll take the job?”
“Only if we ask him.” Max calls him up then and there.
Roger De Bris happily accepting Max Bialystock’s offer to direct his new ‘mystery’ play, Springtime for Hitler. He will be on the next ship over from New York. With a director like this, what could go right!?
There is a knock on the door. The books are quickly closed and hidden, the safe locked.
“Ah, the lovely Persephonee!” Max exclaims as he opens the door.
“Oh, and Guildenstern,” he mutters, taking in the seedy ad man as he shuffles into the room.
“Come on in, we were just talking about you. All goes swimmingly with the new show. As a matter of fact, I have just hired our director. He is an incomparable Broadway veteran …”
Coming Up: Spring is coming! Plays are set to be staged in Ankara and on Persia. Luca Brasi has been seen around the bars of Istanbul, asking questions, but certainly not divulging any answers. Life goes on in inter-war Turkey, as it does in the wider world. What surprises are in store?
The Turkish Cabinet meeting of 10 January 1938 occurred against a backdrop of recent glory, but also of war weariness. While the territory and economy of the Turkish Republic had expanded dramatically in less than a year, the popularity of the government had declined almost as quickly. Similarly, Turkey was now widely reviled and feared by its neighbours, except for the loyal and pliant Romanian regime.
Atatürk presides over the important Cabinet Meeting of 10 January 1938. The choice is basically for war now, or later.
The Cabinet would consider a series of key questions, to gradually eliminate unlikely, unworkable or simply dangerous options for further expansion where the likely gains would simply not justify clear risks. If any feasible options remained, they would be considered for implementation, when the matter of timing and forces required would come into play. This may be for immediate implementation (ie as soon as forces can be reorganised and redeployed); for execution at a selected time (a delay of a few months, where more preparation or the observation of strategic developments is deemed preferable); or as a contingency plan for possible later adoption when circumstances may be more favourable.
In the lead up to the Cabinet Meeting, the Ankara Strategic Dialogue discussion was held in the capital at the prestigious Gazi University. Attendees included well-known strategic academics and commentators Professor Markkur (US Institute for War Studies); Lord El Pip (Chief Executive of the International Organisation of Slower-than-Real-Time Analysis), prominent journalist Nukeluru Slorepi and the well-known Turkish Firebrand and anti-Persian advocate, known only by his alias of The Kelebek Kompozitör [English: TheButterflyComposer].
Gazi University, Ankara, founded by Kemal Ataturk in 1926 as a teacher training institution.
Foreign Minister Aras, who convened the dialogue at Gazi University, had previously provided documents to the Cabinet with the varied arguments each contributor had put in recent days. "These views were provided under our own 'Gazi House Rules'", Aras announces proudly.
"Oh, you mean like the British 'Chatham House Rules', where the views of contributors can be quoted, but not attributed, to protect their confidence?" asks one Cabinet member.
"Almost," smiles Aras. "We tell them their views will not be attributed, but attribute them anyway, just not in public." Security Minister Kaya and Intelligence Head Ogel chuckle at this.
Initial Ideas
First, Chief of Staff Örlungat outlined the technical options, first discounting anything considered completely unrealistic.
General map of central Europe, January 1938.
“As we have decided previously, Turkey has neither the capacity nor desire to engage in any amphibious campaigns of any size, so only neighbouring countries were assessed for involuntary inclusion in the Greater Republic,” Örlungat begins. He has been in Cabinet long enough now to have learned the value of a well-chosen euphemism. “Of those, we of course have eliminated our prospective alliance partners, the Soviet Union. So too the Anglo-French Entente, including the British puppet Iraq.” The easiest conclusions are always drawn first.
“We have excluded Austria due to its close relationship to Germany.” [Ed: and because it would probably break the game scripts and be too gamey.] “Poland and Czechoslovakia are prospective opponents to the Germans and would be very difficult to attack through the shared border of our ally, Romania. They both have considerable armies and would not be easy to defeat.” [And again, doing so would probably derail the game, and also get in the way of the assumed eventual German-Soviet war we are banking on to break things open.]
Örlungat continues: “Italy is not yet aligned with the Axis, and their removal as a potential German ally would be very useful. But without the support of the French and British Navies they would control the Mediterranean and, frankly, we assess their defeat would be beyond us, especially at this stage in our military development. An attack on them may well force them into the Axis early and could risk dragging Germany into the equation as well. They have been discounted as a serious target.”
‘Hungary for Answers’
“So, that leaves us with Hungary and Persia,” says Foreign Minister Aras, cutting in. “Hungary is already in the Axis. We can’t be absolutely certain, but the risk of a direct response from Germany would be extremely high. If we could beat them, would the gain of a few more cities be worth the risk of early destruction by the German war machine?” He has spoken the question everyone else around the table has been thinking about for days now.
Removing the vile Magyar regime would be a poke
in the eye for Herr Hitler and the Fascist camp.
Inönü decides to inject himself into the discussion. “Örlungat, what are the military considerations? Let’s think them through first.”
Örlungat, who has of course prepared for this question (it’s a pre-arranged ‘Dorothy Dixer’ from Inönü, the statesman-general), says there are two major factors. “First, Hungary doesn’t actually share a land border with Germany. And although Austria is now very closely aligned with Germany, we understand they do not have a transit rights agreement in place. So, technically, even if Germany declared war on us in support of Hungary, it may be that they could not directly intervene. At least until they make suitable arrangements with Austria.” This gives the Cabinet pause for thought.
“Second, like the Romanian campaign, we would only need to take two cities (Pecs and Budapest) to force them to surrender, and both are vulnerable to a quick assault from the south. We could also ask our Romanian allies to make a diversionary attack in the east on Debrecen. It could be over quickly with good planning, surprise and a little luck.” Örlungat unveils an operational map, showing the proposed Hungarian campaign. It is very simple. “We have called this Case Aqua.”
“But it is a great risk nonetheless," Aras points out. “The minute the Germans gain access, they will come down on us like a ton of bricks. And even if that doesn’t happen for a while and we succeed in taking down Hungary first, it leaves us at war with Germany and at their mercy, without us having a major ally to rely on for support, and them looking for any way they can to get at us.” Heads begin to nod around the table. These are telling arguments.
“Acknowledged, Aras,” Örlungat replies. “These same thoughts have concerned the General Staff as well. We have not yet had a chance to develop our AT or AA capabilities, nor are even the first foundations of the new Calistar Line completed. While the Germans have not yet completed their rearmament, they can still field very strong forces.”
"Though they would need to leave troops in place to guard their current borders, with France, Poland and Czechoslovakia,” interjects Army Chief Yamut. “Perhaps they would not be in a position to devote such overwhelming forces our way after all. If we took down Hungary and created some forward defensive lines in combination with our Romanian allies, we might be able to hold out.” The mood swings again: people are not convinced, but they are starting to wonder.
“For a while,” Armaments Minister Calistar chimes in. “But indefinitely? How long would it last? Italy may join in later, or Germany might decide to come through Czechoslovakia or Poland to get at us. After all, we did it to Yugoslavia the same way. Live by the sword, die by the sword. And all before we have managed to create a credible last ditch defence for the Republic, should such a ‘bold’ gamble not pay off.”
“And for what gain?” asks Intelligence Head Ögel. “If we were to defeat Hungary we would be best off making them a ‘puppet buffer’ and using their army to provide an additional bulwark to our north, removing an Axis stooge. That would be good. But the price would be bringing an angry Germany into war with us two or three years earlier than we had been anticipating. I’m not sure the gain, good though it might be, would be worth it.”
At this point, President Atatürk motions that he wishes to speak. He is looking decidedly drawn and pale and speaks more softly than has been his previous habit, though with no less authority. “Very well, we have heard enough for now on this option. But what are we comparing it to. The Path to Glory is paved with many choices.”
The Persian Question
“You will all remember Case Green from our major strategic review last year, after we had defeated Greece,” says Örlungat as he resumes his presentation. His staff distributes another operational map to each Cabinet member. “The equation for an invasion of Persia has not really changed in a military sense. Our troops and leadership are more seasoned than last time we contemplated this. Our small Air Force would once again have superiority. But the distances are great, communications and supply lines long and the terrain difficult. No infrastructure improvement has yet been possible. It will take considerable time to redeploy to the Persian border and we would be invading through a narrow corridor.
The terrain will be difficult. Mount Damavand, north-east of Tehran.
Persia’s NU is assessed at 74.9%. This means 6/7 of the available VPs would need to be seized to force a surrender: all bar Bandar e ‘Abbas in the south would need to be taken. Logistics, terrain and time are assessed as the biggest enemies: even without Romanian reinforcement and attacking on a narrow front, the battle-hardened Turkish Army, if massed in sufficient numbers, should easily outnumber and outperform the Persians.
“Our Romanian allies will not be of much use on this campaign. They would be better spent guarding our northern borders in the Balkans while we deploy our army to do the fighting in Persia.” Örlungat pauses, then looks each Cabinet member in the eye, one by one. “Our recommendation is, if we choose this option, we send virtually the whole Turkish Army to do the job. If it is to be done, it must be done as quickly as possible. We can’t afford to get bogged down thousands of kilometers away from our primary threat. And leaving even half our army back in the Balkans wouldn't make any difference if we were seriously invaded by a major power. The Romanians actually outnumber us by approaching 2-1. We would have to trust them with the new Balkan empire and the Motherland. The Calistar Line will not be in any substantial state to do its job for at least a year, possibly two.” Calistar himself looks a little queasy at this.
“There is still considerable risk in this approach,” opines Aras. “There is still a chance Italy or Hungary, for example, could decide to take a shot at us while our back is towards them. Persia remains largely trending towards Fascist alignment after all, even if they did grant us military access last year. Romania’s forces may provide some mitigation, but we cannot rely on or direct them the same way we can our own people. As we speak, they have probably already begun demobilising. On reflection, that was probably what delayed their useful entry into the war on Yugoslavia.” Thinking back to that time, he shivers a little at the memory of Luca Brasi. Even in those photos at that Cabinet briefing last year, the man had the look of death in his eyes.
“But we assess that remains fairly unlikely,” responds Ögel. “I’d also be concerned about pushing the Soviets too far, but that said they have their own preoccupations. We hear Stalin has conducted massive purges in their Army. They are not ready for war, and Persia is a Fascist fellow-traveller anyway. And the Allies are even worse appeasers than the Axis!”
“What about timing,” asks Inönü. “If we do pull the trigger on Case Green, when would be the best time?”
“Diplomatically, I’d want just a little while to see what else happens in Europe,” says Aras. “Test reactions to our absorption of the Balkans for just a little longer. A month would probably do it.”
“We’d need at least that long to reorganise, get our new commanders settled in and redeploy,” says Army Chief Yamut. “This time I’d recommend we use strategic redeployment, even if it consumes more in supplies. We just can’t afford to have the bulk of the Army down south for any longer than necessary. And a month or two would give a chance for the worst of the winter weather to pass – better for the offensive.”
“The additional oil – for our own purposes, and denying it to potential enemies if we wish – would be useful,” observes Armaments Minister Calistar. “As with our Balkan conquests, if we are going to do this we’d want the advantage of the conquest – it would have to be that to make it worthwhile – for as long as possible. I’d say we’d want the occupation in place before the end of this year at the latest. We won’t be able to afford a large garrison, so we may have to put up with revolt and civil uprising. But Persia would at least be pretty safe from Axis attack, unless either India or the Middle East fall to Japan or Italy. That hardly seems likely.” A bold prediction perhaps, but reasonable with the facts available to Calistar at present. “We’d be able to hang on to Persia even if we had to surrender our new Balkan holdings. And it could provide a useful trade bridge to our prospective Russian allies, if it was ever needed in the future.”
“And we could revenge ourselves on the Persians,” observes Security Minister Kaya darkly. “We’ve never forgiven those vile Safavids and their successors. It would be another Chaldiran, but this time we would finish the job properly.” Kaya’s idea of ‘finishing a job properly’ is pretty similar in nature to Luca Brasi’s approach to life. And death.
The Battle of Chaldiran took place on 23 August 1514 and ended with a decisive victory for the Ottoman Empire over the Safavid Empire. As a result, the Ottomans annexed eastern Anatolia and northern Iraq from Safavid Iran for the first time. It marked the first Ottoman expansion into eastern Anatolia, and the halt of the Safavid expansion to the west. Despite the Iranians briefly reconquering the area over the course of the centuries, the battle marked the first event that would eventually, through many wars and treaties later, lead to its permanent conquest, until the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire centuries later. By the Chaldiran war the Ottomans also gained temporary control of what is now north-western Iran.
A choice is made
There seems a lot more interest and enthusiasm around the table now for this Persian idea than there had been about dealing with the Magyars. But there are still some aspects to be considered.
“Hungary,” interrupts Atatürk. “If we want to remove them from the Axis list of assets, what would the timing be for that.”
“It would need to be immediate,” Aras says, surprising everyone, who assumed he was completely against the idea. He does hate his Fascists. “No, I’m not in favour of it, but being realistic, if we wanted to do it, it would have to be done straight away, before Austria grants access and a land border on us to Germany, as we’d have to assume the worst and prepare for war with the Axis faction leader. Austria is teetering and could fall under German sway at any moment.”
“I agree with Aras,” chimes in Örlungat. “It would have to be as soon as possible, while we and the Romanians are in the field and ready to go. A quick march to just short of the border, using our normal deception method, hoping to catch them unprepared. And we’d have to prepare some blocking lines to the west, in case Germany does declare war and convinces Austria to let them through.” He marks a couple of dashed lines on the map. “It would stretch our forces thin though, as we'd need to take Pécs and Budapest very quickly, then assume the defensive.”
Discussion around the table winds down. Everyone that wished to have had their say. They know the purpose of the discussion is basically to allow the leadership (Atatürk and Inönü) to have the pros and cons set out for them so they can make their decision. No namby-pamby Western-style voting in this Cabinet.
An aide helps Atatürk to get up from his chair and walk to his personal office near the Cabinet Room. The other members of the Cabinet take great care to make no comment and show no expression, but each of them is either worried, ambitious, or both. The father of the nation is clearly ailing. What will this mean for the future?
In private, Atatürk at last lets the pain and tiredness show on his face. “Ismet, I must tell you now. The doctors have made their assessment. It is not good. I have cirrhosis of the liver. I will soon need to announce this publicly, but for now let us keep it to ourselves. I'm not sure yet how much longer I have, but will continue on until the end.”
Inönü bows his head a little in acknowledgement, but says nothing. He knows Atatürk will simply want to ignore any personal problem for as long as possible and try to keep his routines going. He will also brook no sentimentality or weakness, whether it is in regard to his personal health or Turkey’s Path to Glory.
“So Ismet, I will give you my views on the easy part of this deliberation,” continues Atatürk. “Then I will defer to you with regard to the more difficult one. You will have to bear the ultimate consequences for that, as we both know you will inherit the mantle of national leadership after I relinquish it in death.”
“Clearly, Case Aqua is the card you don’t pick in the three-card trick. Germany would declare war and, in the long run, it would be immaterial whether they were able to counter-strike us straight away or after a short wait. It would also go against our long term agreed strategy of securing a factional ally first before courting war with the Axis. We need the time now to take advantage of our conquests, build our forces and defences, safeguard the Motherland as best we can, then take advantage of Russia’s endless manpower and steppes to bleed the Germans dry, while relying on the Allies to deal with Italy in the Mediterranean. An attack on Hungary is, for the foreseeable future, a non-starter. So we either play the Persia card, or take the rain-check and wait for time to pass and our strength to build.” This is in part a test for Inönü, to once again see if the has the mettle to lead the nation after Atatürk is gone.
Inönü nods in agreement. “Yes, we can reconsider Hungary once there is a general war afoot and we have the rest of the world as our allies against Big Fascism. So, to the Persian Question. For me, the answer to that is “Yes”. It removes another Fascist sympathiser from the mix, grants oil and resource benefits, and some LS, IC and MP (though not a great deal, especially when balanced against a need to safeguard against revolt). But worth it. Sitting around doing nothing will not see us advance on the Path to Glory.” It is now Atatürk’s turn to nod.
“As to when? I agree with the discussions in Cabinet. If we are to do this, Mustafa Kemal, it must be soon. Let’s extract the most benefit out of our conquest as soon as we can, get it done, and have our troops back in position again before things hot up too much in Europe. We should strip almost all border forces away and concentrate them into the two Corps that will strike Persia: we want to keep that offensive rolling continuously with fresh troops pushing through reorganising ones to keep the enemy on the run.”
“We will rely on Romania to be our deterrent in the Balkans, centralise a minimal response force for revolts in the Balkan Vilayets, and perhaps create a small reserve in Istanbul of whatever forces are left over from the two main attack corps for Case Green. New units coming out of production and training can also gather there. If the worst happens and we are attacked while knee-deep in Persian blood, then they can either respond or try to hold the nascent Calistar Line while we redeploy back from Persia.” He rises and helps Atatürk to his feet.
“Yes, agreed,” Atatürk concludes simply. They return to the Cabinet. Instructions are given for detailed plans to be prepared. Operation Chaldiran will be the next episode in Turkey’s inevitable victory.
Honours and Awards
“The final item on the agenda for today’s meeting is the formal approval of Battle Honours for the recent War in Yugoslavia,” Atatürk notes. “Örlungat!"
The Chief of Staff reads out the proposed unit battle citations. The number of these large and decisive engagements indicates how hard and prolonged the fighting was.
- Beograd: 3-9 Nov 37 – 1, 5 and 7 Inf Divs.
- Visegrad: 14-26 Nov 37 – 3 Inf Div.
- Sjenica: 14-22 Nov 37 – 1 Cav Div.
- 1st Nevesinje: 20-26 Nov 37 – 3 Cav Div.
- Surdulica: 1-4 Dec 37 – 17 Inf Div and HQ 2nd Corps (the first Corps HQ to gain a unit battle citation).
- 2nd Nevesinje: 2-9 Dec 37 – 15 Inf Div.
- Tuzla: 5-11 Dec – 1 Mtn Div.
- Vlasotince: 11-13 Dec 37 – 17 Inf Div.
“All work and no play makes Johnny Turk a dull boy”
As they break up and start to move out, Calistar remarks on the new play he has heard about, that will be performed in Ankara in the spring. “A Max Bialystock production, I hear. The name of the work is being kept a secret – apparently, it won’t be disclosed until the Opening Night, to Maximise the mystery! We don’t get much of this kind of thing in Ankara, more’s the pity. I'll be going.”
“Yes, I hear it will be a ‘special treat’ for the political classes,” says Security Minister Kaya. “I’ll be watching it with ‘special interest’.” He smells a rat. But then again, he always does. About everything and everyone.
“I intend to go too,” pipes up Aras. “I’m hoping it will be a paean of praise for our forthcoming Comintern partnership.” Always the biased intellectual!
It seems the whole Cabinet intends to see the new play when it premiers. It should provide an appropriate morale boost before the serious business of war once again beckons Turkey along the Path to Glory.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch …
Braanszon and Persephonee, having temporarily given up on their attempts to think of a new name for Turkey (not helped by some very enthusiastic celebrating of the recent final victory to conclude the New Balkan War), think about the night before, as they survey the wreckage in Braanszon's apartment.
It was a memorable party. Persephonee can be seen in the centre enjoying herself. Braanszon was probably already passed out at this stage!
The morning after, Braanszon could indeed remember nothing. Including who the hell this dude crashed on his sofa may be! He only knew that his head hurt and his apartment was a mess.
Persephonee drags Braanszon out the door (he is happy enough to leave his trashed pad) to pay Bialystock and Bloom a visit and check on their investment.
The last few weeks have been a whirr of activity for Bialystock and Bloom. They now have new offices in uptown Istanbul and a glamorous receptionist, Ulla.
Max is looking weary. He has been averaging three or four little old lady investors a day since Christmas. That’s a considerable rate of effort, even for a legendary Broadway producer who used to be as famous for his casting couch as his productions!
Max alternates between worry and greed, while Leo contemplates a nicely cooked set of books.
Bloom has been busily working the books, coping with ever increasing amounts: they have already doubled the estimated costs of the play, with each investor promised a 20% cut of the profits (of which, of course, there won’t be any). 50% for that well-connected Guildenstern, who has invested more than anyone else. Leo estimates the combined shareholders own about 500% of the play by now!
“Leo, what if the play is a hit?” asks Max.
“Then the Department of Justice owns 100% of Bialystock and Bloom.”
“Oh, Leo, I’m depressed. Do me a favour. Open the safe. I want to see the money.”
Leo humours him and opens the safe, which is filled with neat stacks of large denomination bills. Max kneels down and inhales the smell of many lira.
“Ah, that’s better!” Max takes out a wad of cash – he has been spending big in recent days.
“Max,” says Leo, still worried about the scheme. “Maybe we should go easy on the spending.”
“Why? Take it when you can get it. Flaunt it, baby, flaunt it!”
“But if something should... God forbid... go wrong, at least we could give them some of their money back. It would look better in court.” Leo starts nervously twisting his scrap of security blanket again.
“Stop talking like that, you white mouse! Nothing's going to go wrong. As a matter of fact, today I am taking steps to ensure total disaster. I am about to hire none other than Roger De Bris.”
Leo searches for a photo from the pile of prospective cast members they have been considering. “Roger De Bris. Roger De Bris. Oh yes, the director. Is he good... I mean bad?”
“Roger De Bris is the worst director that ever lived.”
“Do you think he'll take the job?”
“Only if we ask him.” Max calls him up then and there.
Roger De Bris happily accepting Max Bialystock’s offer to direct his new ‘mystery’ play, Springtime for Hitler. He will be on the next ship over from New York. With a director like this, what could go right!?
There is a knock on the door. The books are quickly closed and hidden, the safe locked.
“Ah, the lovely Persephonee!” Max exclaims as he opens the door.
“Oh, and Guildenstern,” he mutters, taking in the seedy ad man as he shuffles into the room.
“Come on in, we were just talking about you. All goes swimmingly with the new show. As a matter of fact, I have just hired our director. He is an incomparable Broadway veteran …”
Coming Up: Spring is coming! Plays are set to be staged in Ankara and on Persia. Luca Brasi has been seen around the bars of Istanbul, asking questions, but certainly not divulging any answers. Life goes on in inter-war Turkey, as it does in the wider world. What surprises are in store?
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