Thanks for all the comments!
Things are certainly getting to the pointy end now. Still a way to go before I play and write up the next month, but it should prove an interesting one.
Well Italy burst open surprisingly easily. A shame that the Low Countries are going to be liberated by the Allies but given that the Soviets could very easily turn around and kill them all, I think some negotiations (I.e. game modding) may occur in the post war that means the Allies don't actually get much of western Europe back. They're in an impossible position really. No way they can beat the Soviets and the Japanese at the same time.
From the looks of things, the colonial empires are doomed post war anyway. Germany is going Soviet. Italy Turkish. Finland soviet. Eastern Europe split between the pact.
The allies maybe keep the low countries and maybe Norway but that will be it. They'll complain. France will scream. The US will shout. But there's no ignoring reality.
Yes, once the northern front was cracked open, they had little in reserve. Given the Comintern preponderance on the Continent, though a little irritating British presence in the Low Countries is not exactly the end of the New World Order. Though the fate of France is of more significance. If they do gain say France and the Low Countries, I think they keep them, but the position is way more precarious and isolated than it was after WW2.
That said, if Turkey emerges as a third bloc after the war and the US splits back out to either create a fourth power centre or even combine with Turkey to make a truly substantive third bloc (they'll be pretty interested in all that oil and we've been fighting together and shedding blood as Allies, though on a smaller scale that the UGNR-USSR relationship) that has good relations with both the USSR and the UK/Allies, well, that's a different ball game too. They may be keen to see the Allies have enough presence to be allowed a seat at the top table.
Italy has gone smoother than anyone was expecting, so well done! I suppose the fall of Rome will be very important, but a naval landing on Sicily to take Palermo could also be useful to snag some VPs, but it really just seems like a matter of time.
Germany continues to amaze me with their tenacity, but I agree they must be wearing out.
It has - and with fewer casualties than I had feared, with more manoeuvre than fighting involved so far after the initial breakout. Germany lasting a whole month from the position they were in, with the British slipping in behind them, is quite amazing. That's why I like it when the AIs are duelling against each other. It evens things up and surprising results can happen.
Nice shoutout to the P26/40, those are cool tanks that were obviously heavily inspired by the T-34. Italy wouldn't have built enough to make a difference, but I'm curious how they would have stacked up against Shermans, Panzer IVs, and T-34s.
Yes, 'Italy's T-34' is how I've seen them described. Thought they were more likely to get a few more earlier than in OTL, given Italy has remained quite strong until now and has survived into mid-1944.
What are the specific plans for the future? Spain is a victory condition, but taking Vichy would complete Turkey's Mediterranean dominance and ease the way into Spain.
Haven't fixed on anything yet beyond finishing off Italy and getting ready for a quick slingshot into Spain afterwards. We've been thinking about attacking Vichy for years now, and there were always other priorities. Now, with Germany about to fall and Italy following, maybe it will be time to take them on and see what happens.
Timing is an interesting question: wait for Italy to be beaten and a good Turkish force ready on the border to invade southern France, with minor ops to grab French North Africa (using the amphibious force in Split for that instead of Italy/Sicily) and Syria? Or will waiting mean something strange happens when Germany is defeated and France possibly liberated? There's more discussion of this below, and I have deliberately not looked at or researched the French or Vichy events in Vanilla to figure out exactly what happens: I like to keep the mystery in there.
But in strategic terms, this is exactly the kind of quandary for which the views of the esteemed Professor Nukeluru "
@nuclearslurpee" Slorepee of the Ataturk Institute for Strategic Studies are always so valuable ...
I think they absolutely keep the Low Countries and Norway, seeing how they already liberated them. France is going to be a mess, but I'm curious how the game will sort them out when Germany surrenders. It'll just get worse when Turkey snags Vichy.
I think so too, and Norway was never even invaded by the Germans, although they declared against them. France?
<shrugs in clichéd Gallic fashion>
I suspect the game auto liberates every ally member when they win the war...but that still leaves the matter of vichy France. Does it auto dissolve into free France? Become a separate state? Who knows?
Otherwise yes, I suspect rhe Allies will just get Denmark, Norway the Low Countries and Poland back...but they really shouldn't. Not with the mighty red army all over Europe and the UK alone with a toe hold in the low countries and nowhere else. Be suicidal of them to insist on everything back whilst still fighting off a Japanese invasion of India.
In actuality, what I suspect would happen would be a return to relative normality in Western Europe, aside from Italy and Germany going into the comintern...in exchange for finalnd and Eastern Europe going entirely to us.
This is the key point. I like the uncertainty, not having previously played HOI3 enough to be at all familiar with what the mechanic might be. The Allies won't get Denmark though, that's already been liberated and turned into a Peoples Republican Monarchy, in true Paradoxian fashion and Poland is in the Comintern already too, so they remain firmly in the Soviet sphere.
I think the last para is right, depending on what transpires with France.
I wonder at this point if it's time to just declare war on Vichy France. Force them into the war so that they have to be gobbled up (and because I don't know if the British are at war with them too). They can't possibly have that much of an army, and we can possibly get Syria on the cheap.
I'm certainly pondering it. No one is at war with them yet - they remain neutral, so no, the British are at peace with them and Torch never fired.
2-3 divisions each to Ascoli Piceno and Ortona to directly attack and meet at Pescara would be a good plan
Still on hold, depending on whether its necessary and the state of the fleet. If Rome were to fall easily, we may save the marines for Sicily, North Africa and/or Spain.
Turkish women got this right in 1930
Nice. Fun fact(s): In Australia, the first colony (before Federation in 1901) to grant women's suffrage was South Australia in 1894, then Australia-wide from 1902. There's a bit of a debate between NZ and Australia about being the first 'country' in the world to grant those rights: NZ did in 1893, but they were only a self-governing colony until 1907. So Australia, federated as a Commonwealth in 1901, was the first independent country in the world to grant that suffrage.
Once again R.A.W at its finest!
Yes, it's the good old days again!
Seems like we'll only be able to use this amphibi capability against Vichy France or Spain
Could be - unless Italy needs a little nudge to get them to surrender at some point and the we don't think their NAV will sink us as we wait offshore for the troops to unload (I still have memories of what happened to the Soviets in the Q&D game when they got hit hard twice by the Japanese, mainly from the air).
I love noir gumshoe detective stories!
Nice. Well, if the game lasts long enough I might be able to work in
Chinatown too! Any opportunity to show a pic of Jack Nicholson after he gets his nose cut.
At this point I imagine the repairmen at the naval facilities like the cabbage salesman in Avatar the Last Airbender
Not familiar with that one, but it certainly sounds like a relevant trope!
We'll eat them so fast
Yum-yum!
I suppose we can't make the situation ant more complicated by declaring war on vichy, and it would allow us to steal Syria on the cheap so...
I suppose it depends what happens to vichy when Germany falls though.
Yes and yes. It's a genuine question I still haven't decided on.
As I recall, because it's an "independent nation," Vichy would continue unless occupied. Since we don't have a Case Anton in TTL, Vichy doesn't cease to exist as an independent entity, which means that just because Germany surrenders (and thus with it, the French coastline), Vichy will be treated by the game as its own nation.
Basically, I think--and
@Bullfilter might want to do a quick test of this--that we basically have to declare war against Vichy if we want to bring a proper France back to life.
That is my guess too, and if so it means I have a little time to prepare: forces in Savoy, Italy subdued, Germany defeated, afleet repaired for naval ops in North Africa from a base in Sicily (reversing the direction of the OTL Sicily landings), more troops on the Syrian border. I'll think about the test - it's a little gamey, whcih I try to avoid, but in reality you'd have a fair idea of consequences before making such a declaration. Then again... I like a surprise, too!
In that case, we may well see a partition of France rather than Germany ttl.
This could happen to - and would be very nicely alt-ish.
Proper France would be the parts of France that we have. The rest would be Traitor France.
Vur ha!
I'm sure the U.K. has now secured Belgium as well as the Netherlands, but I'm not certain what happens to France when Germany falls given this is a vanilla game. What I'm expecting is for France to be "liberated" and join the Comintern, but the bigger question is what happens to Vichy afterwards? I have no idea whether any kind of mechanism exists to re-unify France? If there is, reunification would snatch Vichy away from us unless we act very quickly. A DOW againt Vichy might prevent that from happening and give us the chance to take Syria... or it might it break something!
Agree re the Low Countries. France? Not so sure. If the Germans hold out much longer, the UK
could have started to liberate some VPs in northern France, whether that has any bearing or not. My guess is that the French government in exile is reinstated and they revert to their original Allied status, but maybe Vichy continues, as
@Wraith11B conjectures. The last point? My thoughts (and therefore indecision) exactly. I
do want to declare against Vichy and would do so right now if I was in position for it, but what if I end up fighting them only to see any gains made granted to France anyway? Hmmm ...
Considering how little resistance we're encountering in Italy, I will second, third, or whatever, the motion proposed by @Wraith11B . Turkey should move part of it's forces in Northern Italy towards the Vichy border after Milan is captured and declare war on Vichy very soon. Ideally, before Germany surrenders.
Yes, I'm thinking along those lines too. But I doubt whether Germany's miraculous survival can go on long enough now for me to have pushed to and through Milan to the border in time, as the Italians seem to have retreated most of their units in northern Italy in that direction. In the end, I'll probably go with a 'gut' decision.
Looks like the Germans really don't care much about the low countries. I also agree that the Comintern should have overwhelming weight in any negotiations surrounding the map of Europe after the war. I would expect that only the Low Countries should go the the Allies, and that France be split between the Turkish and Soviet spheres of influence along the lines of the current vichy border.
No, they're past caring that much, though at the end of the month the British were reporting enemy forces moving northwards in France. But when the Soviets finally take Dusseldorf or Stuttgart, all but the Italians will melt away.
I'm actually impressed at how long the Germans are holding on. One more core VP province and they're done for, yet they held on the whole month.
Me too. Very Hitlerian to hang on until the very end like that, pulling it all down around his ears.
The amphibious operation is not necessary now. However, the Turkish navy should be helping out with convoys to supply troops across the Adriatic over the sea instead of through the Venice corridor. At least, the invasion fleet is good bait to lure in Italian Naval bombers to be shot up by those nice and shiny Yak-7's. The Italian reinforcement bill is surely significantly amplified by having to repair and/or replace that many naval bombers.
I suspect so, though we'll keep it live in case needed to hasten the end of Italy. Perhaps now Tunisia and port hopping along Algeria? Then Spain.
Glad to hear Count Ciano was given the opportunity to travel to Turkey in a vehicle fitting his stature. The midnight orient express. Adding in the Orient, of course, adds to the aura. Perhaps there are some old CIWL carriages mixed in to give the train that pre-ww1 luxury feel.
To Milan, to Rome, to Dusseldorf,
Nice images. Perhaps not so nice for Ciano, but maybe better than piano wire and quartering at the hands of the Resistance. Maybe ... depending on Turkey's plans for him.
It's looking like the breakdown is now going to be
Russia:
Poland, the baltic states, Germany, Finland, Czech part of Czechslovakia, Austria. Possibly part of non-Vichy France, and Denmark.
Turkey:
The Balkans, Italy, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia. Possibly Vichy France and Syria.
Allies:
Low Countries, Norway. Possibly Denmark, and maybe parts of France.
If the game doesn't default to something like the above, we can mod it to be a bit more correct. Because as much as the Allies are committed to liberating each other, the UK is not going to war with Russia for France and Denmark. Not with the red army just across the channel and already surrounding the BEF, and with the Japanese invading India.
Pretty much. Though not Denmark to the Allies - I'm pretty sure they can't change now they're in a faction, except by conquest. And, like in OTL, there's a bit of uncertainty around Austria. The France situation will be resolved by whatever the reality on the ground is at the time of settlement: if it does liberate and return to the Allies, then that will be taken to have been a resistance rising to free it spontaneously (not unreasonable, if the British are already slipping into the north, Free France stakes its political claim, the Germans have sloped off and the Soviets are not in occupation of any French territory).
What are the victory points held by Italy and Germany? Why do I expect the Iron Curtain to be north/south between leftist dictator Soviet and rightest dictator Turkey? The OSS will be sending funding to every nationalist group in Europe. Thank you for updating
The game doesn't distinguish by country in the VP totals - it does them as faction totals, unless you go through manually to count them up. Germany now has just the two cities left in its West, plus what it holds in France. Italy just has the cities we haven't occupied yet. Japan now holds the vast bulk of the Axis VPs.
That Iron Curtain analogy is probably spot on. Though maybe less iron, more a semi-transparent fabric? Only because the two have forged such a close wartime bond fighting together and for each other in common cause, quite unlike the Allied-Soviet relationship in WW2.
And yes, the US will be looking for ways to try to do that old British trick of power balancing, except on a global basis. They'd be in a much stronger influencing position if they'd actually done something in the Pacific, though. Their AI-induced inactivity (I suspect in large part induced by concerns about Canada and Mexico keeping them fixated on those borders due to the Comintern alignment and just normal HOI3 AI passivity).
If we “liberate” or release Austria as a puppet, we get to keep allstria. We still have wien, we could do it!
A useful thought ... I'll have to see if it presents as an option for Turkey.
A timely reminder that Hitler does in fact have somewhere to run in this timeline…
But he won't be able to hide. Imagine what a group of
Maquisards would do to him if they found him lounging around the French countryside ...
Inglorious Basterds would be the least of it!
I can only wonder what will be left to disembark when the train does finally arrive in Istanbul!
It's hard to tell ... a mindless pile of quivering jelly? A broken man awaiting a spectacular show trial? Or a suborned figurehead for one of the new Italian GNRs that will be instituted after their incorporation into the UGNR? Even
I don't know yet.
I am keeping my fingers crossed for Mehtin Sadik. He has come through a lot over the course of this war.
And with Mehtin too, I'm hoping he might make it through, but am uncertain if he will.
The Italians seem to have only a few isolated divisions, no coherent front and no ability to counter this move. Onwards to Rome!
Vur ha! Unless they have some forces from either the Vichy border or southern Italy they can throw into the fight and stop us short of Rome, I'm hoping we can wrap them up quickly now. But as our troops get isolated and maybe run short of supplies, they could drag it out.
The Italians have nothing left to stop the breakout from Operation Ottoman Viper so we don’t need to take any risks. An invasion north of Rome isn’t needed and could end up making our tenuous supply situation worse. Invading Sicily is I think out of the question because we won’t be able to provide air cover for the fleet.
I still recommend Taranto (if we are to do this). Specifically, make a short hop across the Adriatic and land along the eastern coast at Bari and the two adjacent provinces. Then seize Taranto by land.
I am also mindful the Italian bomber formations are quite ragged right now and the condition of our fleet isn’t particularly bad. Waiting is not likely to change the equation. The real question is whether to take the risk at all?
The landings won't proceed unless necessary to break a deadlock if one arises, or to hasten the end in a low-risk situation. The only problem with Taranto is that it is now home to their largest air concentration. One option could be to relocate some fighter groups to those southern air bases I've been preparing and try an air superiority strategy over Taranto to see if I can bring to battle and defeat or suppress their remaining NAV and whatever fighters they have left. But then, if they can be forced to surrender without having to do that, then the men and resources saved might mean a quicker campaign against Vichy and/or Spain.
An interesting character – and his assignment to this case appears to have come from the top…
…or he may have fabricated those papers for his own reasons.
Far too convenient, I would say.
Curious.
There's certainly a lot to unravel. My guess is this Pierce Patchett character is simply profiting from a trade in Veronica-lookalikes and thus the connection to Persephonee is entirely coincidental – but with both the L.A.P.D. and S.I.T.H. taking an interest in his setup (and maybe the F.B.I. as well) it is potentially combustible!
There's a few layers to Bud, that's for sure ... and he does have some powerful sponsors. Is he a pawn of greater forces, or more a knight, with some more agency than that? And who are his true masters? We shall find out in due course ...
Way too convenient, indeed. It's got 'fix-up' written all over it.
Dudley Smith and Pierce Patchett have more to do in this little sub-plot. For good? ill? Or something a bit murkier ...? There sure are almost all the letters of the alphabet involved by now. We could stretch it to the SIS (MI6), NKVD and GRU too, plus maybe the main Turkish MSH agency! S.O.S.!
Thanks once again everyone for your readership and support. Expect the next episode some time in this coming week. Have to visit Rome first, but in the second century BC
