OK, I've elaborated on my ideas somewhat. Here's a list of events, together with descriptions. I could code them upand fill in the details, but it'd take a while, and I ought to be doing work at the moment.
Warning: long.
Gerhard the Firm (1615)
"From the moment he joined the Order, there was no doubt in anyne's mind that one day Gerhard von Feuchtwangen would lead it. His extreme devotion to the Order and the Church, the incredible discipline he showed and fostered on the battlefield and even his imposing physical stature marked him out as destined for greatness. True to expectations, when Gerhard became Grand Master he exercised almost complete control over the Order itself, and instituted new laws which subjugated more and more aspects of everyday life in the realm to the commands of the government and the clergy."
- +CENT, -INNO, +SERF
The Death of Gerhard the Firm (1641)
"Gerhard's successors tried to continue his policies and emulate his style, but without Gerhard's skill and resolve. As a result, people began to recognise the new 'firmness' for what it was: the tyranny of religious fanatics. Working with the Church, the Knights managed to suppress much of the dissent, but their brutal methods of doing so only inflamed peoples' anger. The situation could not be contained forever..."
- Suppress all dissent: national RR
- Dismantle the instruments of oppression, and try to compromise with the Order's critics: sleeps Civil War events, but leads to an aristocratic takeover - see post 24 below. Some DP changes occur straight away.
National Revolt in Poland (early 1655)
"Life was tough for those living in the lands of the Teutonic Order in the 17th century, but this was especially true for Poles. The old Polish aristocracy were systematically stripped of their land and privileges, as they were seen as a threat to stability, while all levels of Polish society faced a terror campaign aimed at rooting out the 'vile and wicked heresies' that were believed by the Order to be endemic in Poland. Eventually a group of szlachta met in Krakow in 1655 to discuss what should be done. The result of the meeting was a 'Declaration of the Rights of the Poland', and soon there was a violent independence movement in the country, which set about lynching tax collectors, burning churches, and destroying everything that symbolised Teutonic rule. Over time the Catholic faith itself came to be seen as a cause of Poland's suffering, and Poles converted in their droves to the radical teachings of travelling preachers from Germany and Hungary."
- province RR; lose polish culture; a few provinces convert to Protestant/Reformed
Polish revolt successful! (late 1655 onwards)
"Once it became clear that the Order was losing ground to the rebels, what authority it had left in Poland disintegrated. Even local priests, previously the backbone of Teutonic power, now supported the new state. If the Order wanted to rule Poland again, it would have to conquer it afresh."
- triggered by Polish existence; causes Polish provs to defect to the new state
The Boyars' revolt (1663, or triggered by above)
"Like their Polish counterparts, those Russians who did not convert to Catholicism faced severe restrictions on travel, land ownership and much else besides. The revolt against the Order was slower to get organised, with the Russian noblemen initially looking only to the interests of themselves and their families, but eventually they realised they would have to band together to succeed, inspired by events in Poland. Any claims the Order or the Catholic Church had to rulership of the northern lands was slipping away, and many who had nominally converted to Catholicism for personal advantage now revealed their true beliefs."
- province RR; lose russian culture and crusader cores; a few provinces convert to Orthodox
Russian revolt successful! (1658 onwards)
"Teutonic power in Russia had always been tenuous; now it had evaporated. The formation of a Russian League would forever change the relationship between the Order and its northern neighbours."
- triggered by Russian existence; causes Russian provs to defect to the new state
A Fork in the Road (1671)
"Within the Order itself, all agreed that the current crisis was grave, but there was much disagreement about how to resolve it. Opinion eventually coalesced around two groups. The 'Whites', who had most support among the Order's warriors and priests, believed that to save itself, the Order had to return to its roots as a crusading order, emphasising discipline, the Catholic faith and martial prowess. The 'Greys', led by the charismatic young Christian von Schafenberg, advocated a greater opening up of the Order to the locals, and believed that the Order would best regain the respect of God and the people by improving their welfare and bringing peace to the realm. The argument culminated in the appointment of the pro-White Wilhelm von Feuchtwangen as Grand Master, and the mass explusion of Greys from the order. But instead of accepting defeat, the Greys looked for support among the local populace, and started to raise an army of their own. The unrest had finally become a civil war."
Support the Whites: 'civil war' AI; POL and RUS declare independence, with all provinces of the appropriate culture ceded to them; high RR until 1676
Support the Greys: 'civil war' AI; Massive desertions from army; country becomes KUR; TO declares independence and gets a large army with a couple of good leaders; low RR until 1682; province RR reduced (but not eliminated) in Poland and Russia
A sad day for the Order (if player has chosen White) (1671 onwards; automatic after 1689 if neither side has won)
"Although the Whites had some early successes, it became clear that the embattled Order was in no position to restore the power it once had. Finally the Order capitulated, and gave up most of its land to the new countries emerging out of the wreckage. Never again would the Teutonic Order have authority over large swathes of Eastern Europe."
- triggered by the TO failing to control most of its 'heartland' provinces; POL, LIT and RUS declare independence, and TO cedes most of its land to these. Most White/grey events slept, and TO lingers on in obscurity (with a default AI)
A Violent End (if player has chosen Grey) (1674 onwards; automatic after 1694 if neither side has won)
"The Grey cause was embodied in Christian von Schafenberg, and in the end it died with him. When became clear that the rebels were never going to achieve final victory over the Whites, the forces that made up 'Baltland' split along religious and ethnic lines and started to fight each other. Although this should have played into the hands of the Whites, they too ultimately failed to bring unity, and ever afterward the lands of northeastern Europe would be marred by religious and cultural strife."
- triggered by the death of the leader 'Christian von Schafenberg', and the TO controlling any signifcant amount of land; POL, LIT and RUS declare independence, and KUR cedes most of its land to these. Most White/grey events slept, and TO/KUR linger on in obscurity (with default AIs)
Poland is subdued (White) (1671 onwards)
"After many a fierce battle, the rebellious Poles were eventually brought once more under the control of the Order."
- triggered by the TO controlling most of Poland; causes Poland to be inherited, but with high province RR
Lithuania is subdued (White) (1671 onwards)
"After many a fierce battle, the rebellious Lithuanians were eventually brought once more under the control of the Order."
- triggered by Lithuania owning little; causes it to be inherited
Wilhelm the Brave restores control (1674 onwards)
"It took several years and many battles, but eventually the armies of Wilhelm von Feuchtwangen triumphed over all their domestic foes and forced the exhausted rebels to admit defeat. Despite his ancestry, Wilhelm turned out not to be as tyrannical as had been feared, and soon enough he won not just the obedience, but also the loyalty of nobles and peasants alike. This was the beginning of a new era for the Order, one in which religion and the army would once again become great forces for unity and pride.
One of Wilhelm's first acts after the war was to expand the army by allowing non-German Catholics to serve in the main forces, rather than just as auxiliaries, and by increasing soldiers' pay. This was paid for by the revenues generated by lands formerly belonging to the ringleaders of the rebellion, now mostly under direct control of the Order."
- requires that Poland and Lithuania don't exist, that TO controls key provinces, and that the bad event has not fired; TO inherits POL and LIT; removes province RR and restores polish culture; some free military goodies; TO gets new aggressive AI
Christian the Wise brings peace (1682 onwards)
"Although Christian von Schafenberg had taken up arms against the Order, it was with reluctance, as he wanted to preserve it, unlike some of the allies he had later acquired. But once it became clear to the Whites that military victory was impossible, Christian was able to achieve almost everything he set out to do, thanks to his extraordinary powers of persuasion. The Greys were reinstated into the Order; Wilhelm stepped down in favour of Christian; and following Christian's repeal of most of the laws introduced by Gerhard the Firm and his dismantling of many of the institutions of oppression, even the Polish nationalists were convinced of the virtues of a new, more inclusive Order. A great calm descended over the realm, as people focused on rebuilding, rather than fighting each other."
- require that the bad event has not fired, and that KUR is at peace, and that the TO isn't too big if it exists; KUR inherits TO, POL and LIT and becomes TO; capital moves back to Riga; get negative national RR for a time, and a bonus to DIP until Christian's death (this guy is superhumanly persuasive); triggers 'Spoils of War'; TO gets new peaceful/colonial AI
Trade through the Sund recovers (1671 onwards - once the civil war is over)
"During the civil war, the powers around the Sund had conspired to limit passage in and out of the Baltic Sea for ships trading with the Teutonic Order. One way another, this blockade was eventually lifted, and so Baltic merchants could once again trade more freely with the wider world. The Teutonic Order took full advantage of this, and a number of successful trading ventures brought them great wealth."
- requires TO to own Sjaelland or a Grey Victory; gives free trade investment and cash
Recession (1785-1799)
"Exposure to the fluctuations of the world market had its dangers as well as its benefits. When a large trade bubble burst in the late 18th century, it caused terrible damage to the Baltic economy."
requires low MERC and high trade tech (more likely for Greys)
- At least we can help the merchants in Riga: mixture of the two below, but the COT survives
- There's nothing we can do: lose a manu, cash, COT in Riga and trade investment; lose stab; revolts
- Sell land to prop up all businesses: huge +MERC; inflation; lose tax value
White events
The end of Russian independence (Wilhelm on the throne)
"Now that Wilhelm was firmly in control in the South, he could turn his attention northwards. The rebellious Russians were swiftly defeated by his veteran forces."
- requires that Russia controls nothing; RUS gets inherited
The reconquest of Russia (Wilhelm on the throne)
"With the final defeat of the Boyars, Russia was once again under the control of the Teutonic Order. Grand Master Wilhelm wasted no time in restoring the apparatus of government in the north, and soon Teutonic authority there was stronger there than ever before."
- requires no RUS, peace, the success of the original Russian crusade, and that TO owns key provinces; TO gets russian culture and crusader cores back
Expansion on the borders (1679)
"Although its army was now one of the most well-drilled in Europe, the Teutonic Order was vulnerable to attack on all sides, and surrounded by natural enemies. The Grand Master also wanted to cement his power internally. Wilhelm's solution was an audacious show of strength: by laying claim to many areas on the fringes of the realm, sometimes on the flimsiest pretexts, he planned humble the Order's neighbours and create a 'buffer zone', while giving himself and his soldiers ample opportunities to win glory for God and the Order."
- We'll teach our neighbours a lesson! : Gain BB; +CENT, +OFF; cores on Silesia, Danzig, southern Poland, Chernigov, Tver, Tula and Kursk; worsen relations
- Just bolster our existing defences: -OFF; free fortresses
Power in the Baltic (1684)
"Security on the frontiers would achieve nothing if the Order's enemies could simply sail up to the Gulf of Riga and land straight in the heart of the realm. Though initially disdainful of the navy, Wilhelm was eventually persuaded that taking control of the Baltic would enormously strengthen the Teutonic Order's position."
- We shall dominate the Baltic! : Gain BB; lose cash and tax value; gain a naval manu; gain a shipyard and ships in Riga; gain cores on Gotland, Ingermanland and Sjaelland; -LAND; worsen relations
- Focus on land power: +LAND; free land investment and troops
The legacy of Wilhelm the Brave (1689 - Wilhelm's death)
"Wilhelm von Feuchtwangen, like his great uncle Gerhard before him, was a man of incredible discipline and courage. Unlike his great uncle however, he would be remembered reverently, chiefly for his military career: not just his legendary exploits on the battlefield, but his forging of a large, well-trained, well-equipped and disciplined army that was the envy of Europe. Wilhelm the Brave became a figure of almost cult-like devotion, especially among the country's warriors and rulers. This ensured that the army would always get the best men and as much money as it could want, but had the unfortunate effect of causing the leadership to neglect economic development and innovation."
- loads of free military goodies, but tech drops to Orthodox
The Holy Inquisition (1692)
"Wilhelm himself had made concessions to non-Catholics for the sake of unity, but his successors did not feel bound by these, arguing that they were only ever meant to be temporary. In 1692, Grandmaster Paul von Feuchtwangen announced that the Holy Inquisition would restart with renewed vigour, giving the Church generous funding to do so, and that the powers available to inquisitors in the time of Gerhard the Firm would be restored."
-Restore the Inquisition: -cash; lots of free conversions, but at a cost of revolts and reduced tax value and population; -INNO
-Stop this madness: lose VP
The Finnish crusade (1721)
"In 1721, the Grand Master decided that the time was ripe to pursue a final victory over one of the Order and Catholicism's more persistent foes: Finland. This was an 'unofficial' crusade, as the Pope did not give his blessings, but seeing as he could do little about it, he didn't offer much criticism either. Victory for the Order would strike a fatal blow to Orthodoxy in the north of Europe."
requires Finland to exist, and the TO to be in reasonable shape
- Crusade! : gain BB; CB on FIN for 30 years; war with FIN
- They're not worth it: gain stab
The Order conquers Finland (FIN) (1721-1751)
"The Finns had gone to war confident of repelling the invaders, but in the end they proved no match for the crusading Teutons. The Finnish king surrendered unconditionally: under the terms of the peace, the Finnish ruling family were allowed to keep their kingdom, but only on condition that they drop forever all claims to rule outside of Finland, and that they swear allegiance to the Pope in Rome as well as to the Grand Master. The people of Finland never forgave their rulers for their complicity."
- requires that either FIN is a vassal of TO, or TO controls much of Finland; changes religion to Catholic; lose a load of VP; cedes all provinces outside Finnish heartland to TO; lose cores and russian culture; permanent province RR in Finnish heartland
Crusade is successful! (1721 onwards)
"The crusade against Finland was a resounding success. Catholicism reigned supreme in the north and Finland was now little more than a client state to the Order."
- requires that FIN and TO are at peace, and that 'The Order conquers Finland' has fired; major VP; makes FIN a vassal
Ad Gloriam Dei (1760 onwards)
"While many were horrified by the means employed by the Teutonic Order, few could denigrate its achievements. The Order had triumphed over its enemies time and time again, and many were beginning to wonder if it could ever be beaten, with rumours either that the Knights were favoured by God or they had made a pact with the Devil, depending on the religious beliefs of those talking about them. One by one, the battered belligerents sought accommodations with the Order. At last the Grand Masters could turn their attention to easing some of the economic strain caused by ceasless conquest, safe in the knowledge that the Order had earned its place as one of the Great Powers of history."
- requires the TO to have taken most of their extra cores and conquered Finland or Russia; gives major +VP; +stab, -BB, +relations, +DIP for a while; restores Latin tech; -inflation
Wilhelm's Obsession (1793)
"With the benefit of hindsight, Wilhelm von Feuchtwangen was a poor choice of Grand Master, and would never have become one were it not for the near-hereditary grip the Feuchtwangen family had on the title. To make things worse, mesmerised by the adventures of his namesake and ancestor, Wilhelm became obsessed with the idea of launching a crusade to take back the Holy Land from the Muslims. The point had come when either Wilhelm would be allowed to launch his crusade (and many in the Order secretly hoped he'd die in the attempt) or he would be forcibly removed. Unfortunately there was little agreement on who should replace him, and the only candidate who could muster enough support was Johannes von Altenburg, a compromise candidate at best who'd have to make a great deal of concessions to the competing factions."
requires Jerusalem to be owned by a Muslim country (FAT,EGY and CAL are the most likely)
- Indulge him: gives a core on Jerusalem; gives ships and troops; lose cash
- Replace him: -CENT; lose lots of stab; Wilhelm replaced by a monarch who isn't quite as useless (but still mediocre)
Liberalism and the weakening of central authority (1799)
"While the Order had succeeded in slowing the spread of radical political ideas, it had not stopped them altogether, and with the weakness of recent Grand Masters, the calls for drastic reform were growing ever louder. The Grand Master was advised by some of his subordinates (who perhaps saw it as a way to get more power for themselves) that it would be a good idea to loosen the reins somewhat."
- Give in to demands: large -CENT; +INNO, -SERF, -ARIST; lose manpower
- Resist reform: small -CENT, revolts, RR
Grey events
The Spoils of War (follows on from Grey victory)
"Although the Order had returned to peace, the war had taken a terrible toll on its agricultural output. Whole families had been killed or fled, while many among the German ruling class especially, having supported the losing side, were sent into exile, with a few of the worst criminals executed as traitors. One way or another, vast areas of good arable land were lying fallow and abandoned.
There was much debate as to whom should receive the land, as no-one wanted to see so much of the country become the direct property of the Order. But one thing was certain: Grand Master Christian would insist that the land was divided and farmed in a productive and efficient manner, breaking with the medieval practices that had been in place before the war, to foster the prosperity of the realm for years to come."
- Redistribute among the local aristocracy: +ARIST, -CENT, +tax value
- Redistribute among the great German families: +ARIST, +CENT, -INNO, +tax value
- Give it to the people: -ARIST, -SERF, +INNO, +tax value
Reconciliation with Hungary (1686)
"Now that the lands of the Teutonic Order had purged their internal demons, the Grand Master turned to reconciling the order with its foreign neighbours. First on the list was Hungary, and the central obstacle to a lasting peace was the position of Poland. Unfortunately, Poland had been so riven by religious turmoil that uniting it now would be impossible, but Christian did persuade the Hungarians to agree to the most practical solution: Poland would be divided on religious lines, with Catholics encouraged to settle in the Teuton-controlled North, while Calvinists and others would be welcomed by Hungary in the South."
- Propose a fair division of Poland: southern two Polish provs, and area south of that, ceded to Hungary; lose BB; 'unnatural' reformed provinces go back to Catholic
- the status quo is fine: sleep HUN event
Reconciliation with the TO (HUN)
- Do as we have agreed: cede northern provinces to TO, drop cores, improve relations, lose BB
- Renege on the deal: gain severe BB, worsen relations
The fate of Russia (1688)
"Russia had become a battleground for Finns, Ukrainians and Teutons, as well as Russian nationalists, ever since Grand Master Johann von Tiefen launched his ill-advised crusade two centuries earlier. In another display of his powers to bring peace to the world, Christian convinced all concerned that the only fair solution was to let the Russians themselves decide what they wanted. By now most Russian leaders were set on joining a new independent state, but in the provinces which remained loyal to the Order (notably the city of Pskov), this removed the last barrier to full acceptance of the Order's right to rule.
- Let the Russians decide: gives independence to Russia; lose BB; improve relations. Pskov either Baltifies, or TO gets Russian culture (might be a bit overpowered).
- the status quo is fine: sleep FIN, UKR and STE events
Response events for FIN, UKR and STE
The Baltic peace conference (1694)
"The Baltic peace conference was one of Christian von Schafenberg's last achievements (as he died later that year), but also one of his finest. Christian had observed that centuries of wars and squabbles between the powers surrounding the Baltic sea had been over a narrow strip of land around the Gulf of Finland, and invited delegates from Finland, the Hanseatic League and the Union of Kalmar, as well as local leaders, to help resolve the dispute once and for all. By the end of negotiations in April 1694, Christian had managed to persuade each power in turn that even if they took the disputed land, it would only invite the jealously and plotting of the other powers, and that the only safe state was for the whole region to fall under the protection of the Order. In return for dropping their territorial claims, the three powers across the Baltic would each receive a generous share of revenues from the region. Even the Hansa were persuaded to abandon Novgorod, as its trading importance had waned markedly in recent years."
requires that none of HSA,KAL or FIN own all three provinces in disputed region
- Propose Teutonic control, with compensation: -cash, -tax value in provinces, -BB, +relations
- the status quo is fine: sleep HSA, KAL and FIN events
- either choice removes the COT in Novgorod (if it's still there) and puts one in Riga (if it's not there already)
Response events for HSA, KAL, FIN and whoever owns the provinces: cores are lost and revenues received by the majors without any choice, but the owners of the province can choose whether or not to sell their land to the Order.
Across the Oceans (1700 onwards)
"The Teutonic Order had been slow to join the race for overseas colonies and trading posts, but it soon made up for lost time. The revenues generated by trade and goods from across the oceans were invested wisely, and did a great deal to boost both the economy of the Order and the shipbuilding industry, which had emerged to satisfy the new demand for ocean-going ships."
- requires the TO to have claimed a few colonies and achieved a certain level of trade tech; gives a shipyard, a refinery and trade investment
The Domestic Reforms of Boguslaw Kepinski (1728)
"It was testament to how much the Order had changed that Boguslaw Kepinski, a Pole from the minor nobility, was now Grand Treasurer of the Order. Moreover this was much to the Order's credit, as he proved a financial and administrative genius."
- Reform the economy without changing its overall character: +tax, +infra, large -inflation (the AI could well need this)
- We need a radical overhaul: +CENT, population and tax value is concentrated in the cities, -stab, RR, gain goods manus, +infra
The Election of 1736
"After the death of the long-lived Hans von Neckarbruecke, the Order had to decide on who would replace him as Grand Master. The most capable candidate was clearly the Grand Treasurer, Boguslaw Kepinski, but even now many in the Order were reluctant to see a non-German lead them. Their preferred candidate was the high-born general Karl von Tiefen."
- Elect Boguslaw: -stab, and lose Karl as a leader, but Boguslaw's a good monarch; +INNO
- Elect Karl: +stab, and get an average monarch but a decent general; -INNO
The Shrine of St Christian (1764-1789)
"During his lifetime, Christian von Schafenberg had been seen as a great leader by many, but he had enemies as well as friends. In the decades after his death, however, the enormity of his achievements slowly began to sink in and knowledge of them spread. Eventually he was seen all over Europe as a great man of peace, and his tomb in Riga became a major site of pilgrimage. In 1764, on the 70th anniversary of Christian's death, the Pope took the final step of declaring Christian to be a saint. This of course could only improve the standing of the Order he had once led."
- requires TO to be at peace, and to have reasonably low BB; gives a free FAA, +stab and random good relations
The Vilnius Pamphlet (1802)
"In 1802, a revolutionary pamphlet, entitled 'A New Constitution for the Baltic State', by an unknown author but believed to have originated in Vilnius, swept the lands of the Teutonic Order. Unlike many such pamphlets, the document was not full of empty rhetoric, but instead called for and described a new system of government, in which most of the power would be shared between a 'Baltic Assembly', elected according to population from all provinces of the country, and a 'Speaker' appointed by said assembly. Such was the sudden surge of support for the pamphlet among the land's notables, and such was its eloquence, that some even thought it was the work of St Christian.
The current Grand Master was certainly open to new ideas, and had long been looking for ways to bring the government in line with the wishes of the people. Indeed, he felt that the proposed constitution had great merit, even though he would be mostly relegating himself to a ceremonial role in the new republic. He could tell that this could be a great turning-point in history, and that 'Baltland' could set an example that would resonate across the world. Still, radical change always had its opponents."
- Adopt the constitution - long live the Baltic Republic!: country becomes KUR; large -SERF, +INNO, -ARIST; final monarch, 'Baltic Assembly', is quite good (7/8/4 ?); revolts, desertions and -stab; short period of high RR; gain a FAA in Vilnius and VP
- Only minor reforms are needed: smaller DP changes; final monarchs are fairly average; low but persistent RR