The Butterfly Effect: A British AAR

[Nathan Madien]

While I've got an update almost finished, I may have got a bit distracted by aeroplanes....

The flying kinds? Or the ones that go boom and kill certain people off?

 

[Duritz]

One Men of Tanks is here and said one is not amused...

Still, any update is a good update given your recent form!

Dury.

 

[Davout]

Another man of tanks signing in. Sorry for the lateness, I nodded off watching the Ashes. Anyone know how the Perth test ended up?

Getting back to business, I see it is almost time for the traditional Christmas update. I wonder which side of the SCW was given the turkey? Dare I say both?

 

[unmerged(78085)]

Huh-What? Aeroplanes?!?

Opens eye blearily, after collapsing onto keyboard almost as heavily as England's batsmen at Perth (well done Australia - we now actually have an Ashes Series! Huzzah!)

Saw "Pan's Labyrinth" the other day, so I'm steeled for the Spanish Civil War going on into 1944 at least... although maybe El Pip can bring some much-needed order into the mad peninsula - where is Wellington when you need him, eh?

 

[El Pip]

Chapter CV: The Air in Spain Part I - Quantity Has A Quality All It's Own​

The war on land justly garnered the headlines from the spring campaigns of the Spanish Civil War, the repercussions spreading far beyond the borders of Spain to the chancelleries and foreign ministries of the world's Great Powers. However, before we turn our attention to the ground campaigns it would be wise to look at the battles fought in the skies about Spain. Tactics and designs that would eventually be used around the world were developed there and, despite some obsolete beginnings (for some factions at least) by the end of the war it would become the first true aerial conflict of the monoplane age.

As with so much in Spain in 1937 there were two main campaigns in the air; one in the north and one in the south, leaving the central sector surprisingly quiet. Neither side wished to cross the line into strategic 'morale bombing' of the other's cities, but feared that their enemy might. Thus defensive fighter patrols were the order of the day across central Spain as both air forces sought to protect their capitals against threats, both real and feared. More importantly these patrols were equipped with the best fighters available, politicians naturally wanting the capitals (and themselves) to have the best protection, this left the other theatres to make do with what was left over. A sensible move from a political view point perhaps, but a questionable use of scarce resources, especially given the lack of actual strategic bombing raids.

The parlous state of the pre-war Spanish air force meant the foreign sourced aircraft quickly came to dominate the skies, the pre-war forces being too few and too obsolete to make a difference either way. This trend made the air war a decidedly regional affair; two adjacent airfields could have wildly different aircraft available depending on which faction the base commander aligned with. Broadly speaking the north of the country was the domain of British and Soviet aircraft, while the south was home to the German and French machines. It should, however, be noted that the Republican government was far more eclectic in it's sourcing than the Monarchists, fielding a variety of aircraft sourced from Poland, Holland and the US amongst others. While these efforts certainly boosted the front line strength of the Republican Air Force, and helped force France into supplying better aircraft, it was a logistical and maintenance nightmare for the ground crews trying to keep dozens of types in service.

In the north it was a classic quantity vs quality battle; the Monarchist had the numbers but the Republican pilots the better machines. While a lack of Republican hard currency had limited the volume of Soviet supply, Moscow did not have the same caution about sending it's latest designs to Spain; thus the Soviet equipped squadrons had by far the best planes of any unit in Spain, they just didn't have very many of them. The star was undoubtedly the Tupolev SB, a fast, modern monoplane bomber that could outpace the Monarchist's fighters by anything between 30 and 80mph, an advantage it would hold until the arrival of the Hawker Hurricane later in the year. On the fighter side the Soviet squadrons were equipped with the Polikarpov I-16, a potentially excellent aircraft but one that was dogged by endless problems and was, despite stiff competition, the worst maintenance horror inflicted on long suffering Republican ground crews. However when it did work (and didn't fall out of the sky due to structural failures) it's 280mph top speed made it a clear 50mph faster than most Monarchist fighters and by far the best fighter in the sky. This was fortunate as with barely 50 I-16s in the country, they had formed part of the 'carrot' Stalin had dangled at the PSOE/PCE to tempt them into capturing Madrid the previous year, the Soviet trained pilots would be outnumbered in every dogfight.

A German technical advisor inspecting a crashed I-16. Note the sheared off-wing, almost certainly the result of the flawed structural design rather enemy action. This alarmingly common failure was exposed during combat operations in Spain and, while extra reinforcement partially resolved the problem (at the cost of extra weight and reduced performance), I-16 pilots were trained to avoid high-g manoeuvres, such as tight turns, that would stress the wings. This limitation compromised the aircraft's fighting ability and was soon exploited by Monarchist pilots who adopted tight twisting turns as their default dogfighting tactic. If this weren't enough, the I-16's filtering and cooling systems proved inadequate for the heat and dust of Spain and the twin ShKAS 7.62mm machine guns were prone to jamming and, worse, were operated not by a trigger but by pulling hard on a steel cable, making precision aiming all but impossible for regular pilots. Despite all these problems the formidable speed, power and climb advantages held by the I-16 still made it the supreme fighter of the spring campaigns, if a worryingly flawed one.​

Opposing these examples of cutting edge Soviet technology the Monarchists inventory was far less impressive. After the best efforts of 'economy minded' civil servants in Whitehall the RAF had emptied it's inventories of obsolete biplanes into Spain. While representations from Madrid (and the British aircraft industry) had seen the last generation of new build biplanes cleared for export to Spain the Hawker Hurricane, the Supermarine Spitfire and in particular the 'crown jewel' of their Merlin engine stayed on the restricted list. These restrictions, along with the tendency of the Monarchist leadership to keep the best of their purchases to protect the capital, left the Northern Army's Air Force with such triumphs of early 1930s technology as the Hawker Fury and Gloster Gauntlet, both ~220mph biplanes armed with two Vickers 0.303" machine guns. Technically speaking they were cutting edge, several RAF squadrons hadn't been slated to receive the MkII versions of both aircraft until late 1937. However in truth even by biplane standards they were obsolete; the Gloster Gladiator (an improved Gauntlet) could hit 250mph+ and with four machine guns had double the fire-power. The bombers were much the same story, the new monoplanes being kept back by the RAF to equip Strike and Bomber Commands while the Hawker Harts, Westland Wapitis and Vickers Virginias that were being displaced from service flowed into Spain. These aircraft were not particularly impressive, even by biplane standards, all being 1920s designs that had been replaced in the Metropolitan RAF and found their way to the colonial squadrons. While they had provided sterling service in the Abyssinian War, a fact that (misleadingly) calmed the Monarchist Air Force, there had been negligible Italian fighter cover for them to contend with, a fortunate state of affairs that did not exist in the skies above Spain.

The opening exchange went much as you would expect, the Tupolev SBs evading any attempt at interception and the I-16s massacring Monarchist fighters and bombers with equal ease. As the Monarchists, and their RAF advisers, adjusted to the shock the tables began to turn; while the SB bombers would remain elusive the I-16s soon lost their early dominance. The first response was safety in numbers, pilots could quickly be trained on a biplane and they were available in comparatively vast quantities. Monarchist commanders thus had the luxury of being able to despatch a whole squadron of Furys or Gauntlets to go after a single 3-plane 'Vic' of I-16s, swamping any opponent who didn't use their superior speed to flee. The second was tactical, the RAF observers and 'technical trainers' (i.e. pilots, but renamed to dodge the League of Nations ban) assisting the Monarchist in devising formations and tactics to exploit the weaknesses of the I-16, particularly in the turn. Most RAF histories pinpoint the Spanish Civil War as the point where the four-finger formation, and the combination of four four-fingers into a whole squadron formation (know by pilots RAF as 'Going Mob-Handed'), was first developed, though naturally other air forces, particularly the Scandinavian ones, fiercely disagree and try to claim that honour for themselves. Certainly Spain saw the first use of the formation and tactics in combat and was devastatingly effective against the Republican units that were still using the standard 'Vic', a tactic the Soviets would insist was retained long after it's flaws had become apparent.

A Latvian Air Force Bristol Bulldog. Concerned over the general rise in tension in the region the Latvian government purchased several squadrons worth of Gloster Gladiators to upgrade it's ageing fleet of Bulldog fighters. The Bulldogs were then sold by the Latvian government directly to the nascent Basque Air Force, a surprising choice to put it mildly and one that did not go down well with the Republican government in Valencia. The Basque Bulldogs would cause havoc in the northern air war, regularly getting the jump on Monarchist squadrons who assumed a British design must be friendly, but equally falling victim to the PSOE/PCE I-15 patrols who made a similar assumption.​

In terms of the wider war the impact was that neither side could gain anything more than highly localised air superiority and even that would only hold until the opposition reacted. While the Tupolev SBs remained untouchable they were not available in sufficient numbers to be much more than an annoyance in the bombing role, however in the reconnaissance role however they were supreme and kept the Republican leadership well informed on the enemies location. Lacking anything even slightly comparable the Monarchist had to rely on numbers and brute force for their scouting, using whole squadrons instead of single quick aircraft to ensure the aircraft's survival. Even with superior numbers these tactics, along with similar demands from the fighter units for numbers to counter the superior I-15s, left the Monarchist with very little strength left for bombing the enemy; finding them was hard enough. Beyond the campaign both sides realised they needed aerial reinforcement and approached their overseas backers to buy, beg or borrow new aircraft; the PSOE/PCE asking for more 'carrots' from Stalin while the Monarchists bluntly informed Britain they would not be accepting any more ancient RAF cast-offs. Longer term it laid the foundations of modern fighter tactics, re-assured the Soviets their aerial technology was cutting edge and served as a timely boost to Churchill's bid to banish the biplane in favour of a fully 'modernised' RAF.

--
Notes;
Terrifyingly quick update I know, but holidays will do that. Not at all what I intended, but I got distracted and discovered I'd written half an update before I noticed I'd drifted off course. Again. It also means the land campaign has to wait till after I've done the Franco-German clash in the south, but no-one was that desperate for tanks where they?

All the aircraft flaws are OTL, as is the very bizarre Latvian Bulldog sale to the Basque. Not sure why, perhaps fellow feeling for a small country? The Finnish experience does suggest a biplane could out-turn an I-16 and, with the right tactics, give them a bloody nose. With aircraft to burn the Monarchists have the numbers to learn those expensive lessons and still be strong enough to fight back.

With virtually bugger all Luftwaffe presence in the country they don't get a chance to develop the Schwarm and four finger tactics, instead the plucky Brits get there first and give it a more British name (apparently people were using mob-handed even back in the 1930s), though the Finns are still bitter they don't get the credit for inventing it.

Would the Soviets be so pig-headed as to persist with Vics despite it being obviously rubbish? Yes, yes they would. Despite the experiences of Spain they still fought the Winter War and the Eastern Front with 'Vics' and steadfastly refused to learn.

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

Well.

At least they are not flying Sopwith Camels and SPAD XIIIs.

 

[unmerged(34050)]

Firing guns by pulling on a steel cable ... Wow.

Ditching the Vic this early is a real benefit for the RAF.

If the Monarchists have a numerical edge anyway AND get Hurricanes in any quantity, that should seal the deal in terms of air superiority.

 

[Nathan Madien]

Oh, those politicians. Gotta protect themselves from their own war.

 

[Sir Humphrey]

Nice update. What a way to make a nice start to the day.

 

[unmerged(62170)]

Excellent update - the Latvian-Basque deal is particularly odd and interesting. Then again the Baltic States have always had a thing for supporting regionalist organisations. Even today Plaid Cymru gets aid from Estonia and pushes for closer links between the Welsh and their comrades in teeny-nation liberation.

 

[Karelian]

...though the Finns are still bitter they don't get the credit for inventing it.

Well, one can always console himself by wishfully thinking that the creation of an ad-hoc supply unit for a single plane flown from Sweden constitutes as an establishment of world´s first independent air arm

And huzzah for quick holiday updates.

 

[Zhuge Liang]

Well that was certainly a present surprise, you'd best be careful you don't spoil us El Pip.

So neither side has cause to be particularly happy about the generosity of their backers but at the same time they can't exactly complain too hard- particularly when they consider what having to fight a war with Spanish planes would be like...

 

[El Pip]

Kurt_Steiner - You haven't seen what the French are supplying yet!

DonnieBaseball - I almost couldn't believe it. Then I remember this was the Soviet Union we were talking about, anything more than a cable would be elitist capitalist decadence.

I figured the RAF couldn't help but learn the Vic's limitations, being repeatedly thrashed tends to stimulate new thinking. However it may take a while for the four-finger to get formalised (and for the Air Superiority Doctrines to unlock )

Nathan Madien - I think I have a realistic view of politicians, but some do call it cynical.

Sir Humphrey - Call it a Christmas Present. Between friends and family I'm going to struggle for time before January.

Dr. Gonzo - That was the only link I could see,; "We used to be a small part of a bigger country too." A fairly local phenomenon though, it's not something the former members of the Austro-Hungarian Empire indulged in as far as I know.

Karelian - Ahh yes that old story. Now you've reminded me it all makes sense, the Finnish Air Force blew it's reputation with that 'We were the world's first air force!" story. Frankly after that is it any wonder no-one believes anything else they say?

Zhuge Liang - All true, however I doubt that is going to stop anyone on the Monarchist side looking their foreign gift horse in the mouth and then complaining about it. Neither the Soviet nor British governments are quite as committed as their men on the ground pretend, that's always going to lead to friction.

 

[Duritz]

As Soviet supplies drop off due to a lack of revolutionary zeal (by which they mean gold) I wonder where the replacement machines will come from? The US would gladly fill the void I believe but I doubt they'd do it for promisary notes and IOU's! Still, if Pippy can justify it the idea of the PSOE/PCE using US suppliers would be one of those wonderful quirks of history...

I can't wait for the France v Germany grudge match!

I really can't wait for my much promised land update

Dury.

 

[Nathan Madien]

I can't wait for the France v Germany grudge match!

I really can't wait for my much promised land update

Sadly, all you can do is wait while El Pip does his thing.

 

[Vann the Red]

Splendid, Pippy. Lovely to see these airplanes get a bit of spotlight especially since I don't have to fly one of those beasts into harm's way. Here's hoping your holiday schedule allows more random updatery!

Vann

 

[Sir Humphrey]

All we need now is some air-mercenaries to show up and we are set for a right howdy-do!

 

[El Pip]

Duritz - Of course the US did supply a great deal of things for IOUs in OTL, but I'm struggling to see a way for the PCE to get their grubby little hands on such supplies in any quantity. And didn't anyone ever tell you the anticipation is supposed to be the best bit?

Nathan Madien - Not just wait. You could also anticipate, hold impromptu votes to determine the next post-Spain update, or indulge in speculation about what happens next. I accept none of those are likely, but they are all valid alternatives to waiting!

Vann the Red - Glad you liked it, it's no boat porn I accept but it does at least annoy the men of tanks. It may well be kicking a man when he's down after Australia lost the Ashes so humiliatingly, but what is life without a good gloat?

Sir Humphrey - It's already confusing enough without another faction turning up, besides I think the tankers would burst if I further delayed their armoured fix.

Update soonish. Very soonish, but probably not this year.

 

[Nathan Madien]

Nathan Madien - Not just wait. You could also anticipate, hold impromptu votes to determine the next post-Spain update, or indulge in speculation about what happens next. I accept none of those are likely, but they are all valid alternatives to waiting!

In other words, situation normal.

Update soonish. Very soonish, but probably not this year.

It's the New Year. No new update. You kept your word, El Pip.

 

[cdcdrr]

Will we also see an update on the southern air war? It'd be interesting to see some greater variety and engagements between German, French, American or Dutch planes where we won't have to worry about 'cautious judgement to benefit the RAF'.

Also, Fokkers!