Qing restoration (as a Westminster style parliamentary democracy with a figurehead emperor) of course. Never let it be said I am unambitious. The tea drinking people's of earth should align under one system!
- 1
- 1
-
We have updated our Community Code of Conduct. Please read through the new rules for the forum that are an integral part of Paradox Interactive’s User Agreement.
This would be amazing, but I highly doubt its could happen.
- 2
The IJN are committed, pathologically, to the doctrine of decisive battle. There will be no need to lure them out for a fight, they will be actively looking for one. This is linked to the finding them point, the easiest way to do that is threaten somewhere they have to protect and they will come to you.
The route to the blockade of Japan is Hong Kong -> Formosa -> Okinawa (maybe). All the rest of the South Sea Islands, Iowa Jima, etc are irrelevant. Maybe a sub blockade on Truk to reassure Australia, but that's about as far into the Pacific as the RN intend to go.
Okinawa is a maybe because there is a question mark over whether a blockade will starve them out in a sensible time frame vs does strategic bombing work as well as the RAF claim. If they go bombing then Okinawa helps, if it is blockade and subs in the Korean straits then Okinawa is not really required.
Well Malaya is already British so that's staying unless the war goes really badly.
The China update might explain a few things, but certainly there is no real desire for a long and expensive occupation of, say, Korea. The other relevant factors are how hard/long the war is, who else fights and who is in power when it ends.That is incredibly ambitious! Alas The Qing dynasty have already decided to back Japan and the last Qing emperor Puyi has not become the fist Emperor of Manchuko. It would be a bit awkward for him to now become Emperor of China given how much most of China resent Manchucko's existence and all the 'collaborators' who are working with the Japanese.
Indeed. Even the Ming have buggered up their chances when the last claimant followed Puyi to Manchuria.
Duke Yansheng leading a Confucius inspired new dynasty is the best I can think of. I think it might be broadly popular with the people, anything for a bit of stability after the warlord era, but the warlords and the Nationalist government would fight it bitterly, so I fear it is very unlikely.
- 2
- 1
Ambitious but rubbish, given the size of china and its population. What on earth would the lower house look like?
Well that makes it easier.
And that makes it cheaper. All looking good for a fairly prompt Blighty victory. Provided things aren't cocked yo immediatly and they have to spend year fixing that first.
Well Malaya is already British so that's staying unless the war goes really badly.
Yeah I know. Was asking I felt they get anything given they're closer to Japan and already 'the forgotten' dominion/colony amalgamation.
Looks like the war might be a simple colonial war after all, with a bit of big high seas naval battle to bring in the true glory. This all seems deceptively easy and uncomplicated, so I'm sure that the Japanese find some way to bugger this up. How far do they think/how far will the young actually get on land and by sea before the huge doomstack from the rest of the empire shows up? Because the Pacific fleet and army components aren't massive and wont be reinforced until after the japs have declared war, they presumably have a few weeks before the RN reinforcements show up, and possibly even longer before some army troops get there sending on whatnot the British decide to do.
So what could the Japanese do to prolong the war? Take Hong Kong, March down the coast and beside and take Singapore? Can they do that quickly?
- 1
- 1
Ideally, if it came to war between Japan and British Empire, and if Brits prove too hard nut to crack, Japanese would probably go for "Decisive Victory" at sea, do as much damage to the British navy, and occupy as much of the various Imperial Pacific and SEA region colonies and islands, with main goal being to take control of British Malaya / Singapore, and do it with "acceptable losses" (read: Banzai Charge the machine gun until the gunner is cut down, or runs out of bullets). then sue for peace to try and negotiate some form of white peace, or Japanese control of British Borneo and Singapore before the British war machine goes to high gear in similar manner of how Japanese attempted to negotiate a peace with Americans.
However, in OTL the Americans were quite ready to firebomb Japan to stone age if needed, to get a complete victory in the name of democracy and Wilsonianism, and to dismember Japanese Empire by force no matter the costs.
In Butterfly Effect however, We can imagine that if Americans are not involved, that Japanese could get -RELATIVELY- lightly in comparison as we discussed earlier. Honestly it really can go either what way how Japanese colonial lands get handled as well. But I do think British are not quite as ideological, and far more pragmatic compared to their Yankee cousins, and Understand that "every nation needs a TINY BIT of colonial land to function"
As for Singapore question, if Japan is not locked in a land war in China, I'd imagine Japanese would most likely well be able to turn Singapore situation into a "Port Arthur Siege 2 Electric Banzai for you", with just as much bloodshed if not more so compared to original siege of Port Arthur.
- 1
As for the blockade, why would it not be HK - Formosa - Palau/Tinian/Saipan? Rather than going to Okinawa (and Japanese home territory) which gives them at least some face to save when the inevitable destruction of the IJN occurs?
- 1
It would be very silly of the japanese to just take islands and then demand a white peace or similar.
We are of course assuming japan just declared war on the empire as the situation stands now. It's more likely that they'll take french indochina or/and Dutch Indonesia first presumably?
If they've done that and then attack GB or GB preemptively attacks them, what is the plan for both sides? Japan will have more angles of attack presumably, and GB has a lot of stuff to retake (especially f it wants to recover and sell the colonies back to their neighbours) to clear the seas and air to make an effective blockade.
We are of course assuming japan just declared war on the empire as the situation stands now. It's more likely that they'll take french indochina or/and Dutch Indonesia first presumably?
If they've done that and then attack GB or GB preemptively attacks them, what is the plan for both sides? Japan will have more angles of attack presumably, and GB has a lot of stuff to retake (especially f it wants to recover and sell the colonies back to their neighbours) to clear the seas and air to make an effective blockade.
- 1
History is quite silly, for example, IMAGINE Attacking USA with a surprise assault on Pearl Harbor... but not taking Pearl Harbor over as its a strategic location between US mainland and US Pacific due to it quite literally being a mid-way point due to sheer distances involved with the tech of the time.
And Imagine then, after taking over American Pacific islands and Philippines, to not have a single idea about how to actually... Win outside of Decisive Naval Victory against Americans, which Americans quite clearly just ignore anyways by just building a whole new Pacific fleet in few years anyways.
Most likely to be honest.
- 2
Wouldn't it be awkward if (however unlikely) the Japanese take French and Dutch Pacific and Asian holdings, and then just stop and start doing stuff in china and Russia again?
The British awkwardly shuffling their feet as the not-allied-but-European empires complain to them and everyone else about what's going on but can't do anything about it. Japan presumably wouldn't actually stop at that if they did decide to go south towards the empires but funny to think about it. Even if they wait a few weeks, it would be incredibly tense and frustrating for the FO and government in general.
It would make sense for the Dutch and French to be gotten rid of first, but then they did have to figure out how long they can afford to build strength to attack the British as opposed to the risk of them sending reinforcements or being convinced or bought into to join forces with either other empire to put the Japanese in their place.
The British awkwardly shuffling their feet as the not-allied-but-European empires complain to them and everyone else about what's going on but can't do anything about it. Japan presumably wouldn't actually stop at that if they did decide to go south towards the empires but funny to think about it. Even if they wait a few weeks, it would be incredibly tense and frustrating for the FO and government in general.
It would make sense for the Dutch and French to be gotten rid of first, but then they did have to figure out how long they can afford to build strength to attack the British as opposed to the risk of them sending reinforcements or being convinced or bought into to join forces with either other empire to put the Japanese in their place.
- 2
I guess? The Japanese could just target the british and keep it confined to south east asia and the sea around it but why would they when they can take the undefended and richer pickings from france and the Netherlands first? The question then would be whether the dutch and french would be sending their own fleets to help out or trusting the british to win by themselves and give them their stuff back for free?
- 1
- 1
Because they have to look at who could stop them. If they scoop up Indochina and Indonesia then there is a lovely naval base not far away crammed with British ships and aircraft that could make an intervention in this juicy new empire. In 1941 the Japanese could have just bulldozed their way through Malaya, Indonesia and Burma routing the scratch European / locally recruited forces. Churchill was terrified, genuinely, that the Japanese would do just that, focussing on the European colonies only, giving the US the option of 'ducking out' if they wanted to.
At some point Japan is going to rub up alongside the militarily strong powers - it'll want to chose the timing of that 'rubbing' to its own advantage.
- 1
Well there's no reason for the US to get involved or Japan to attack them, unless they decide to try and stop China's market being open to the us. So no embargo for oil, no southern strike to the phillapnies. If Japan manages some deal with china, they'll probably go after the undefended European colonies. Presumably Britian last, especially if they are helping or not hindering Japan's china thing. I guess it depends on the china negotiations now. If the British are hit first or last?
- 2
First off, someone has sent me a link to the Penguin Classic cover generator. So I made this and it is still making me smile;
Around Munich and the terrible realisation that Britain might have to send an actual Army to the continent instead of a couple of token divisions, it did get downgraded a little bit. But as Le Jones notes later it definitely wasn't forgotten.
The current British War Memorandum East pretty much assumes Hong Kong is lost, if it's a gentle build up to wall and the Fleet gets sent East in time then maybe the Gin Drinkers line will hold for a couple of weeks until the Fleet can fight the decisive battle. But if it's reinforcement from Home Waters / The Med then the plan is relief of Singapore and then drive North.
In OTL Singapore held out far longer than required by even the pessimistic plans and that was with Percival in charge as all the better generals were busy elsewhere. The Japanese can try for Singapore, but it's a bit of a red herring. They need to win a decisive battle against the RN's Far Eastern Fleet. Win that and Singapore is doomed regardless.
The Japanese have been winding everyone up a bit with their aggressive commercial tactics (much like Germany they need to export a lot to pay for their military build up related imports, plus all the usual imports they need just to have a modern economy). So some minor putting of Japan back in it's place is inevitable, a firm enforcement of Spheres of Influence is likely (i.e. Japan is not getting one), but as you say actual dismemberment is unlikely unless the war is particularly long and unpleasant. London is more likely to accept that Korea for instance is Japanese and doesn't need democratic liberation. Formosa/Taiwan is a tricky one as it is worryingly close to Hong Kong, but has also been (violently) pacified and Japanised more thoroughly. Maybe just demilitarisation, after all in Butterly that is working so well to contain Germany....
Palau/Tinian/Saipan are just too far into the Pacific as far as the Admiralty are concerned, most of the fleet is a bit short legged and there are no bases nearby. PNG is just harbours, Darwin is light units at best so it's Brisbane or Perth as your nearest major fleet base and docks. Also they don't help with the aim, which is getting bases close to Japan so you can blockade it (or bomb it if you are the RAF). Finally, while they probably won't admit it too openly, operating under friendly air cover is preferred by the Admiralty. Not fighter cover or land based torpedo bombers, things aren't that advanced, but having Coastal Command flying boats and so on to do recon and submarine hunting.
Because Japan did have a plan. The Fall of France had 'proven' the 'lesson' of the Russo-Japanese war that Western countries were feeble and collapsed easily under pressure, so after the initial strike from Japan the would soon beg for peace on Japan's terms, much as France had bowed to Germany.
It was a crap plan that relied on ignoring the millions of bits of evidence that pointed the other way, but they did have an idea of how to win. It was just rubbish.
Japan will always have the initiative, Britain might declare war to help defend a fellow power under attack but there is no political will for a pre-emptive war on Japan, and will use it. But they are not so hubristic to think there will be no reaction to any action. If anything the Abyssinian War has made the option of 'just' declaring war on the Dutch and French seem more risky to Japan, after all if the UK will got to war to protect Ethiopia (and it's Imperial position in East Africa) then surely it would do the same to protect it's fellow colonial powers?
The Indian lower house presumably. 1 MP per 1.5million voters. Or the current Chinese 'parliament' with several thousand MPs who, luckily, are all organised into a single party and vote the same way for logistical reasons.
The Malay states were very much not forgotten, far too rich and strategic for that. Plus the whole HMS Malaya thing helped to remind people they had paid for a warship unlike certain tight-fisted Dominions we could mention (*cough* CANADA *cough*).
Around Munich and the terrible realisation that Britain might have to send an actual Army to the continent instead of a couple of token divisions, it did get downgraded a little bit. But as Le Jones notes later it definitely wasn't forgotten.
No chance of marching down the coast to Malay/Singapore. Far too many other countries in the way, not least Southern China, the French colonies and Thailand.
The current British War Memorandum East pretty much assumes Hong Kong is lost, if it's a gentle build up to wall and the Fleet gets sent East in time then maybe the Gin Drinkers line will hold for a couple of weeks until the Fleet can fight the decisive battle. But if it's reinforcement from Home Waters / The Med then the plan is relief of Singapore and then drive North.
In OTL Singapore held out far longer than required by even the pessimistic plans and that was with Percival in charge as all the better generals were busy elsewhere. The Japanese can try for Singapore, but it's a bit of a red herring. They need to win a decisive battle against the RN's Far Eastern Fleet. Win that and Singapore is doomed regardless.
An astute analysis on all points.
The Japanese have been winding everyone up a bit with their aggressive commercial tactics (much like Germany they need to export a lot to pay for their military build up related imports, plus all the usual imports they need just to have a modern economy). So some minor putting of Japan back in it's place is inevitable, a firm enforcement of Spheres of Influence is likely (i.e. Japan is not getting one), but as you say actual dismemberment is unlikely unless the war is particularly long and unpleasant. London is more likely to accept that Korea for instance is Japanese and doesn't need democratic liberation. Formosa/Taiwan is a tricky one as it is worryingly close to Hong Kong, but has also been (violently) pacified and Japanised more thoroughly. Maybe just demilitarisation, after all in Butterly that is working so well to contain Germany....
Formosa is, in rhetoric anyway, considered part of Japan. Like France and Algeria as far as I understand. However you are right Okinawa would be considered an insult to face if taken, so not a step to be taken lightly.
Palau/Tinian/Saipan are just too far into the Pacific as far as the Admiralty are concerned, most of the fleet is a bit short legged and there are no bases nearby. PNG is just harbours, Darwin is light units at best so it's Brisbane or Perth as your nearest major fleet base and docks. Also they don't help with the aim, which is getting bases close to Japan so you can blockade it (or bomb it if you are the RAF). Finally, while they probably won't admit it too openly, operating under friendly air cover is preferred by the Admiralty. Not fighter cover or land based torpedo bombers, things aren't that advanced, but having Coastal Command flying boats and so on to do recon and submarine hunting.
French Indochina would be possible, London would be loath to help out France but recognises their strategic importance. Dutch East Indies I think triggers Britain going to war. The DEI are just far too close, far too important and Japan attacking would be an absolutely unprovoked war of aggression with the clear signal Britain is next. But I don't think Japan would do it. The Phillipiness were "the knife at the throat" of any operations in SE Asia. Singapore would be "the chainsaw on the chest" for taking the DEI. It's both or nothing for Japan I think.
An invasion of Pearl would have been dicey for Japan due to distances and the range on their landing craft (and involved basically abandoning the SE Asia operations to capture resourecs which were the whole point of the war). And, in their plan, not required.
Because Japan did have a plan. The Fall of France had 'proven' the 'lesson' of the Russo-Japanese war that Western countries were feeble and collapsed easily under pressure, so after the initial strike from Japan the would soon beg for peace on Japan's terms, much as France had bowed to Germany.
It was a crap plan that relied on ignoring the millions of bits of evidence that pointed the other way, but they did have an idea of how to win. It was just rubbish.
When war comes to the Far East, and it will come I assure you, things will look somewhat different to now and certainly different to OTL. I don't want to say more for fear of spoiling things, but I am enjoying this erudite speculation.
Wise words here. As stated above Fortress Singapore would be an intolerable threat to any Japanese operation against the DEI (Indochina not so much, though Hong Kong could be an annoyance).
Japan will always have the initiative, Britain might declare war to help defend a fellow power under attack but there is no political will for a pre-emptive war on Japan, and will use it. But they are not so hubristic to think there will be no reaction to any action. If anything the Abyssinian War has made the option of 'just' declaring war on the Dutch and French seem more risky to Japan, after all if the UK will got to war to protect Ethiopia (and it's Imperial position in East Africa) then surely it would do the same to protect it's fellow colonial powers?
- 2
- 2
Ok so:
- Japan could and probably should take French Indochina, both because it can and no one will stop them, and also to test the waters of what the other, potentially more dangerous colonial powers will react.
- Any other expansion into south east Asia or the Pacific requires fighting GB and the Dutch together, possibly the US as well but so far doesn't look like it unless the Japanese hit them first.
- The Dutch and the British will certainly not back down from such a war, and will eventually win whatever happens in the Pacific. The only difficulty is that they're both far away and the Japanese have the initiative. If they manage to take out the Dutch colonies and make any headway against the British, the war might prove quite bloody indeed.
- And of course, whilst the British are away in the Far East, France and Germany circle each other in Europe and try to figure out ways of killing each other, whilst Russia lurks in the background.
- 2
- 2
Is that the sound of Pip's quill strachting on parchment as he furiously works on the next update I hear?
- 1
- 1
There is always hope.Is that the sound of Pip's quill strachting on parchment as he furiously works on the next update I hear?
2 posts to the top.
Last edited:
- 1
Is that the sound of Pip's quill strachting on parchment as he furiously works on the next update I hear?
Well as we've said, we're all waiting for china update so we can continue the baseless speculation which he so enjoys.
So this will probably end up finally going back to Spain.
- 1
