The Butterfly Effect: A British AAR

[Le Jones]

As ever masterful, Pippy; the delicious line of 'Macmillan playing Solomon' aside I enjoyed the planning going on. The postwar (assuming we have something WW2-esque) impact of this will be fascinating. Will we avoid the horrors of the 1970s and actually (sotto voce) still have a world-beating aviation industry?

​

Lindemann and Tizard did have quite the fight through much of WW2 and overall you would have to say Tizard had the better of the arguments (save in a couple of key areas) and Lindemann only survived because Churchill was quite incredibly loyal to those who had stuck with him in the backbench days (and in fairness Lindemann was right on some things and did do very valuable work in producing statistics and encouraging/forcing others to do the same). So here he gets booted upstairs and is shaking things up, with at best mixed results, but he was always going to get some big job from Churchill so here we are.

God, Tizard and Lindemann, what a pair. I'm more in the Tizard camp, tbh; Lindemann got a lot wrong and had a ludicrous influence on our strategic planning. That said, the Tizard mission makes my blood boil.

Plenty of ever-shifting alliances inside the MoD. But as a matter of grand strategic logic a priority list that puts the Army at the bottom will always be the correct answer, for Britain anyway.

Funnily enough, post war the RN and RAF ganged up on the Army permenantly since the latter usurped everything in priority...

EDITED: I originally had a mini-rant about how awful British defence policy has been, a veritable Norse saga of wasted opportunity, flip flop, and short-termism. I'll leave in what I think are the pertinent points...

I don't agree that the RN / RAF team up against the Army, at least not consistently - it flip /flops much more wildly than that. The RAF and RN were bitterly opposed in the 60s and 70s, and the RAF ganged up with the Army to push for greater funding for TELIC / HERRICK at the RN's expense. A few years ago I sat through a PR exercise about the Afghan saga in which, after a harrowing tale from a YORKS officer about life in Helmand, an RAF Flt Lt bounced up, shrugged off the land war, and then expounded on how her two Tornadoes at Kandahar airfield guaranteed an RAF 1* in the US / NATO C2 structure. A senior civil servant nearly punched her...

What is interesting is the future strategy. The Army seems to be on board with the carrier programme more, ironically, than the RAF who go into a drool over the planes but would, really, really, prefer a Tornado replacement to sustain a Navigator / Observer programme (they won this argument in 2010 and thus killed the Harrier). The Army is getting into the soft power game in a big way, and warships are quite good at this already. So there has been a lot of chatter about teaming up to do training teams, conflict resolution etc. All are circling around the international aid budget...

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

EDITED: I originally had a mini-rant about how awful British defence policy has been, a veritable Norse saga of wasted opportunity, flip flop, and short-termism. I'll leave in what I think are the pertinent points...

Boo!

Especially because in Afghanistan, the RAF was infamous for being late and outfitted with awful dud bombs, that the army then had to go blow up before the terrorists got some free high yield explosives with timers intact...

According to a dog sniffer Sargent I spoke to a few years ago, this actually happened three times in the same week, because the RAF kept trying to bomb the unexploded bomb, and missing or just adding more duds to the pile.

I take this with a pinch of salt and a mound of scepticism...but the mind boggles.

 

[roverS3]

I, for one, am excited to see what Napier come up with to wow everyone into allowing them back into the ring.

As for who ever thought it would be a good idea to license-produce a French radial Engine in a bid to get British defence contracts, I really question their sanity.

 

[Cromwell]

Surely it is time for more aviation goodness for the loyal Pippians to devourer? The rabble grows restless!

 

[Wraith11B]

Surely it is time for more aviation goodness for the loyal Pippians to devourer? The rabble grows restless!

If my maths are correct--and I'd like to think after teaching it for almost 3 years it is--after my post here we have fifteen posts to hit top of the page.

Anyone fancy a debate about the RN/RAF?

 

[Cromwell]

As if there even is a debate, RN all the way, the Falklands war performance proves that. Also warships are larger and thus cooler than aeroplanes, QED.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

As if there even is a debate, RN all the way, the Falklands war performance proves that. Also warships are larger and thus cooler than aeroplanes, QED.

I am a Navy man through and through and lament the irreparable damage that aeroplanes, and their close cousins missiles, have wrought upon naval warfare.

However, citing the Falklands is a mixed example at best, for none can deny that the Black Buck raids were as a feat of sheer logistical achievement utterly the coolest thing that happened in that war. Granted, requiring something like fourteen planes to deliver one bomber is perhaps not the most efficient use of materiel, but it's damn impressive all the same and this sort of pioneering spirit in aviation has been sorely lacking for many decades.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

As if there even is a debate, RN all the way, the Falklands war performance proves that. Also warships are larger and thus cooler than aeroplanes, QED.

Does it really? A third rate air force based quite far away from the island manged to do a lot of damage with store bought missiles. And that was in the 80s.

Suppose the bigger question is not whether the RN is useful but whether it is cost effective, which I don't think it is...

The bigger question for the RAF of course is how much longer will it continue to field human pilots in the actual planes, and how much longer it will need pilots at all (outside medical and sea rescue helicopters presumably).

But to return to the comment, warships are indeed huge, expensive and cool. They are also huge, expensive, and morale grindstones round your neck. Especially the big stuff (carriers, cruisers etx).

 

[El Pip]

It's been a while I will admit, not a long time by Butterfly standards certainly but a while. I have been somewhat distracted by other things, firstly by the accursed timesink of Aurora which @nuclearslurpee (thrice damned be his family for a thousand generations) tempted me back into. I think I have that under control now and have managed to get back into writing again. There is a slight cloud on the horizon that Humble Bundle are selling HOI4 for 80p (and a few quid more for most of the DLC) so I gave in and brought that, though when I will actually risk dipping my toe into that horror show is a different question. On the plus side you can tweak the purchase price so I gave it all to charity and none to Paradox, so that is a small win regardless.

Here we return to the subject of strong words...

Often the best kind of words.

I wouldn't discount this all ending up with Queen Victoria waking up from a horrible nightmare and the thread ending in 1895.

It was always 1895.

It was an interesting year as things go, something for everyone.

If this AAR does not culminate in a 54-part series on the first Sino-Japanese War I shall lead the thread in revolt.

Then revolt it will have to be. A 54-part series on the five Anglo-Ashanti Wars and their impact on global commerce and geo-politics, that I could probably do.

I for one eagerly await the announcement of Butterfly 2: Snow Got the Chloroform Dose Right This Time, coming 2055.

A High Victorian AAR would be a bit more on-brand for my forum persona it is true.

As ever masterful, Pippy; the delicious line of 'Macmillan playing Solomon' aside I enjoyed the planning going on. The postwar (assuming we have something WW2-esque) impact of this will be fascinating. Will we avoid the horrors of the 1970s and actually (sotto voce) still have a world-beating aviation industry?

It would be a pretty dark and grim work if we didn't avoid the horrors of the 1970s, plus of course DB's Echoverse is shaping up to the definitive alt-history British nightmare work so I'd be foolish to stray onto his turf. Things will go better than historically, though that is an incredibly low bar to clear.

God, Tizard and Lindemann, what a pair. I'm more in the Tizard camp, tbh; Lindemann got a lot wrong and had a ludicrous influence on our strategic planning. That said, the Tizard mission makes my blood boil.

I do of course agree with this. Even by the high standards of Churchillian mistakes the Tizard Mission still stands out as a truly terrible decision.

I, for one, am excited to see what Napier come up with to wow everyone into allowing them back into the ring.

I hope to live to such expectations, though Napiers plan may be more dark arts than engineering wow. Though I do hope to sneak one of those into things.

As for who ever thought it would be a good idea to license-produce a French radial Engine in a bid to get British defence contracts, I really question their sanity.

It is a similar mindset that saw FordAir attempt to build the Merlin in France, a slightly more justifiable endevaour (French aero-engines were pretty second rate) but one that was equally doomed.

Surely it is time for more aviation goodness for the loyal Pippians to devourer? The rabble grows restless!

The writing process has begun, perhaps this will calm the mob, perhaps not.

If my maths are correct--and I'd like to think after teaching it for almost 3 years it is--after my post here we have fifteen posts to hit top of the page.

Solid numerical and administrative work here, as always much appreciated.

Anyone fancy a debate about the RN/RAF?

Only if it remains resolutely stuck in the 1930s and 40s.

As if there even is a debate, RN all the way, the Falklands war performance proves that. Also warships are larger and thus cooler than aeroplanes, QED.

This does lead to the conclusion that the Valemax ore carriers, being the largest ships afloat, are the coolest ship afloat. I find this conclusion unconvincing so I have questions about the proposed rule.

I am a Navy man through and through and lament the irreparable damage that aeroplanes, and their close cousins missiles, have wrought upon naval warfare.

There is much truth in this.

But to return to the comment, warships are indeed huge, expensive and cool. They are also huge, expensive, and morale grindstones round your neck. Especially the big stuff (carriers, cruisers etx).

This is one of the many reasons why no-one should ever go to a historian and/or lawyer for their strategic or military advice,.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

A High Victorian AAR would be a bit more on-brand for my forum persona it is true.

In the scenario suggested, emphasis on the high.

 

[DensleyBlair]

In the scenario suggested, emphasis on the high.

Eagerly looking forward to Pip the Magic Dragon’s Magical Mystery Tour through the 19th Century

 

[nuclearslurpee]

I believe the correct drug-addled animal to represent our esteemed author is, quite naturally, the sloth. It is perhaps not the most flattering comparison, but it is the most accurate and I do not make the rules about these things.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Eagerly looking forward to Pip the Magic Dragon’s Magical Mystery Tour through the 19th Century

Am I that predictable??? Regardless, I will do it if I ever learn how to play Vicky2 properly.

I believe the correct drug-addled animal to represent our esteemed author is, quite naturally, the sloth. It is perhaps not the most flattering comparison, but it is the most accurate and I do not make the rules about these things.

Good grief.

 

[Wraith11B]

Speaking as an American, was the Tizard mission that much of a disaster for the British? They only really gave away one thing (the magnetron) which gained them more American cooperation for the war at the time. There was a throwaway line on the Wiki about how the postwar commercial success was dampened for the British, but I'm blind as to how, really.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Speaking as an American, was the Tizard mission that much of a disaster for the British? They only really gave away one thing (the magnetron) which gained them more American cooperation for the war at the time. There was a throwaway line on the Wiki about how the postwar commercial success was dampened for the British, but I'm blind as to how, really.

Well...let me explain.

(@El Pip please explain)

 

[El Pip]

In the scenario suggested, emphasis on the high.

Eagerly looking forward to Pip the Magic Dragon’s Magical Mystery Tour through the 19th Century

It appears I shall have to add this to my "List of AARs I would love to do but currently lack the time to even attempt". It is a tragically long list.

I believe the correct drug-addled animal to represent our esteemed author is, quite naturally, the sloth. It is perhaps not the most flattering comparison, but it is the most accurate and I do not make the rules about these things.

I'm forced to concede this is probably correct. Majestic progress, immense hidden strength, often maligned but fearsome when roused. The parallels are indeed uncanny.

Am I that predictable??? Regardless, I will do it if I ever learn how to play Vicky2 properly.

There is more chance of you actually doing it, even if you never in fact learn how to play Vicky2. Indeed I would suggest not-learning would vastly improve things.

Speaking as an American, was the Tizard mission that much of a disaster for the British? They only really gave away one thing (the magnetron) which gained them more American cooperation for the war at the time. There was a throwaway line on the Wiki about how the postwar commercial success was dampened for the British, but I'm blind as to how, really.

Well...let me explain.

(@El Pip please explain)

With pleasure.

The Tizard Mission was most emphatically a lot more than the Cavity Magnetron. Most of the vital stuff was carried in a secured metal box, to quote a slightly melodramatic description;

Inside lay nothing less than all Britain's military secrets. There were blueprints and circuit diagrams for rockets, explosives, superchargers, gyroscopic gunsights, submarine detection devices, self-sealing fuel tanks, and even the germs of ideas that would lead to the jet engine and the atomic bomb.

The value of Jets and nukes should be obvious, even if it was just theory it was theoretical work the US hadn't done. On the practical side you can see ASDIC/Sonar (on which the USN had done zero work since 1918), superchargers (which the US was terrible at having focused entirely on Turbos) and gyro gun-sights. Explosives seems a minor thing, the US had explosives, but they did not have modern ones - again zero investment since 1918 so they could do TNT but nothing modern (RDX, C-4, etc, Triple base propellants, etc). Did ta bit of explosive research matter? It meant the RN had flashless powder for it's guns while the USN did not, which was particularly unfortunate as the IJN also had flashless powder. When the USN hurridedly rushed flashless powder into service it was using explosive knowledge transferred by Tizard.

Turning to the Magnetron what is missed out is that after the design was given away many US patents were taken out. When the British complained the response amounted to chanting USA, USA a great deal. Now of course patents can be got around and I've no doubt Bell et al would have found a way, but at the very least the British firms would have a few years of sales before they did and could use the "original design, as used in the war, pick the original and best that thrashed the Axis' line in their salespitch. Instead they British electrical firms had to waste time re-inventing something they had already created in order to bypass patents. By the time they'd done all that it was too late and the US firms had got there Not-Invented-Here propaganda and trade barriers in place. This was the lost opportunity.

To come to the final point, American co-operation and goodwill was, basically, worthless, as all goodwill is between nations. The US did what was it thought was in its national interest at all times and at no point in the war did they ever do anything that went against their interests (or what they believed were their interests). This is not a criticism, looking out for your country first is the whole point and is indeed the main reason I criticise Churchill so fiercely over this debacle, the point is that we should not pretend US policy would hav been different in any meaningful way without Tizard.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

As someone who knows nothing about the Tizard mission, from El Pip's description it seems to me that while the idea of giving the USA nice toys to earn "goodwill" was indeed silly and idiotic, helping the US to make up some ground in the military technology we lacked due to the abysmal interwar period did serve Britain's interests in spite of the admitted conundrum of giving away valuable military secrets. I imagine an investigation of the full impact of the various technologies transferred would require several academic PhDs worth of study and publications, but I can easily imagine that had the technologies not been shared the overall performance of the US military would have been notably worse. While I am firmly in the camp of arguing that the Axis powers had a snowball's chance in Hell of actually winning the war due to their well-documented economic and logistical failings, a longer and more devastating war certainly would have been disproportionately impactful for Britain which was already quite overstretched due to the whole "defending the entire world on our own" thing they had going on up until 1942.

I suppose that this implicitly assumes that Britain in 1940 could count on the Americans actually joining the war, without the benefit of hindsight, but in any case given that assumption the whole affair seems not entirely opposed to British interests. Although granted, the magnetron bit probably could have been handled better.

 

[El Pip]

As someone who knows nothing about the Tizard mission, from El Pip's description it seems to me that while the idea of giving the USA nice toys to earn "goodwill" was indeed silly and idiotic, helping the US to make up some ground in the military technology we lacked due to the abysmal interwar period did serve Britain's interests in spite of the admitted conundrum of giving away valuable military secrets. I imagine an investigation of the full impact of the various technologies transferred would require several academic PhDs worth of study and publications, but I can easily imagine that had the technologies not been shared the overall performance of the US military would have been notably worse. While I am firmly in the camp of arguing that the Axis powers had a snowball's chance in Hell of actually winning the war due to their well-documented economic and logistical failings, a longer and more devastating war certainly would have been disproportionately impactful for Britain which was already quite overstretched due to the whole "defending the entire world on our own" thing they had going on up until 1942.

Sharing implies a two way street and that absolutely never happened. Easy example the RAF was mildly obsessed with the Norden Bombsight, it was an area where the US absolutely did lead and it had a noticeable advantage over the bombsights in British service (stabilisation and link to the autopilot). Even after Tizard had given away everything the USAAC point blank refused to even discuss any details of it, so Britain got to waste a couple of years developing the Mk.XIV bomb sight.

I suppose that this implicitly assumes that Britain in 1940 could count on the Americans actually joining the war, without the benefit of hindsight, but in any case given that assumption the whole affair seems not entirely opposed to British interests. Although granted, the magnetron bit probably could have been handled better.

I take the point that from an overall Allied perspective it probably worked out for the best. But it would have worked out just as well had these technologies been licenced to the US or just sold outright.

I occasionally wonder if Britain got the leaders the wrong way round; the bellicose and confident Churchill would have done a better job matching Hitler bluff for bluff in the 1930s, while Chamberlain (assuming he lived) would have been suitably distrusting of US motives and a lot less likely to come up with harebrained military ideas. It probably wouldn't work out like that, and of course the aim of an early confrontation with Hitler would be to avoid anything like the OTL WW2, but it is something I ponder from time to time.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

There is more chance of you actually doing it, even if you never in fact learn how to play Vicky2. Indeed I would suggest not-learning would vastly improve things.

Hello and welcome to Pip the Magic Dragon Plays Vicky2. I do not know how to play Vicky2, and I'm not entirely sure I can even work a computer properly, but I am a Magic Dragon, and playing as the UK. So I'm probably going to win anyway...

Anyway, first steps. Frolic in some autumn mist whilst the game loads. When winter comes, and the ancient game still has not loaded, fly to Sweden and burn it to the fucking ground.

Then remember to alter audio settings to your preferred comfort levels.

I'm forced to concede this is probably correct. Majestic progress, immense hidden strength, often maligned but fearsome when roused. The parallels are indeed uncanny.

They also once a week have to come down to ground level and have a poo.

Incidentally, this is the time when most of them die because a small smelly mammal sat motionless on the forest floor is bascially free xp.

 

[Cromwell]

Surely it is past time for an update to this majestic work?