Alright. But next missions from that chain provide:
- +30% trade efficiency for 20 years;
- -20% trade company investment cost forever (and since 1.30 trade companies are global, you can even have one in your home node and that's damn profitable);
- 10 mercantilism.
This bonuses are undoubtedly very powerful, if not outright OP. As this is strategy game, you cannot simply ignore their existence. And AI shouldn't ignore them as well, as they make country stronger (there are specific strategies when mercantilism becomes a disadvantage, but in general it's a good bonus too).
Hence the "railroading" argument. Playing for certain country, at some point of each campaign you'll want to complete all (or at least most of) mission trees, may be in a different order.
If missions were tied to conditions instead of specific tags, each of paths you've suggested would result in access to different missions with different bonuses. Same with AI - different situation for certain country in a different campaign can change their set of available missions, thus "railroading" it to the different path.