The Spanish Mines

[Lord Baldric]

Someone should make a "Depletion of the Spanish Mines" event or events to include with the EEP. For God's sake the gold and silver mines started to dwindle by the 17th century, and this is not modelled in the EU2 game, yet it was a major factor in Spain's decline. I'd do it myself but I seem to lack competence in forging new events. The best I did in this area was to attach a bunch of "mine -50" or so lines to the Spanish bankrupcy events. I'll try to study up, but until I become an event master maybe someone else can carry the torch...

 

[unmerged(5206)]

command = { type = mine which = x value = y }

If the Y value supports negative values then I believe this is possible.

Does anyone know if you can input negative numbers for the "y" value?

 

[unmerged(6159)]

I think the depletion is more like the late 17th century than early. I wouldn't associate it with the bankruptcy events (as they are triggered/slept by the Fuggers). I thought the largest crown income from the American fleets came in the 1630s or so. (Remember Piet Heyn!)

A problem with doing this is that Spain is being singled out for owning those gold mines. I think it's better done with random events. Maybe two random events for each of the Americn gold mines? Starting in 1660? Any thoughts?

 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I'm not knowledgeable about events but couldn't you attach the events for the mines to the province and the date only?

So they happen irrespective of who has them??

 

[unmerged(6159)]

That only works for random events. Which is pretty much what I was suggesting. I will look into coding these - need to decide when they ought to happen first. I mean the silver income was significant all the way up to the South American revlutions.

 

[Lord Baldric]

Significant yes, but IIRC it started dropping off significantly even by the time Phillip III took the throne. I did a fair amount of research about 15th-17th century Spain a couple year's ago. I'll try and see if I still have anything written down...

 

[unmerged(5206)]

We can have a individual depletion event for each gold mine, and then we can reproduce the triggers for other majors like China, England, and France.

 

[unmerged(6159)]

Some numbers on silver shipments (well I think it's the total, but most of the value was in silver rather than gold)
From Parry, The Spanish Seaborne Empire

[COLOR=skyblue]

1541-1550 1000000 peso
1591-1600 7000000 peso
1601-1610 5581000
1611-1620 5464000
1621-1630 5197000
1631-1640 3343000
1641-1650 2553000
1651-1660 1065000 
[/COLOR]

This is supposed to be shipments, but I don't know if it's total or crown shipments.
From Elliott Imperial Spain (well I think that's the title)

[COLOR=skyblue]

year     		crown    total
1503-1505	117	445
1506-1510	257	979
1511-1515	376	1435
1516-1520	312	1192
1521-1525	42	161
1526-1530	326	1246
1531-1535	519	1980
1536-1540	1621	4725
1541-1545	909	5945
1546-1550	1911	6610
1551-1555	4354	11838
1556-1560	1882	9598
1561-1565	2183	13449
1566-1570	4542	16969
1571-1575	3958	14288
1576-1580	7980	20702
1581-1585	9061	35250
1586-1590	9652	28599
1591-1595	12028	42222
1596-1600	13169	41314
1601-1605	7824	29284
1606-1610	10260	37686
1611-1615	8656	29434
1616-1620	5217	36135
1621-1625	5869	32413
1626-1630	5543	29945
1631-1635	5681	20533
1636-1640	5630	19578
1641-1645	5723	16516
1646-1650	1998	14125
1651-1655	2687	8753
1656-1660	728	4033
[/COLOR]

A couple of points though
-the crown numbers don't drop off as much as the total, and the crown proceeds might track production better than the total.
-shipments are not the same as production because there was a dramatic increase in the shipment of bullion to the Philipines and then on to Japan, China and India in the period of decline
-throughout the period there was a some degree of smuggling, and as the taxes rose it seems to me that smuggling probably rose too.
-by the mid-18th century shipments were pretty much back to their peak level - around the same as in 1600.

The decline is generally attributed to labour shortage due to the demographic collapse in the Americas. When you only have 1/10 of the population it's hard to get enough slaves into the mines. Usually 1650 is seen as the low point in the population of Latin America.

The other factor was the exhaustion of the surface lodes. The 18th century recovery was due to capital investment to allow exploitation of deeper ore.

 

[unmerged(6159)]

So here's my proposal for Jalisco. Others would be done the same way.

[COLOR=skyblue]
event = {
	id = xxxx
	trigger = { 
        owned = { province = 24 data = -1 }
	year = 1645
	NOT = { year = 1690 }
	continent = europe
	}
	random = yes
	name = "The exhaustion of the American mines"
	desc = "In the late seventeenth century the effects of the massive depopulation of the 
American continents caused a dramtic reduction in the production of the American mines."
	style = 1
	action_a = { #Rats #
		name = "Rats"
		command = { type = mine   which = 24 value = -15 }#Jalisco#
# 15 is 25% of initial value#
	}
}

event = {
	id = yyyy
	trigger = { 
        owned = { province = 24 data = -1 }
	year = 1665
	NOT = { year = 1680 }
	continent = europe
	}
	random = yes
	name = "The exhaustion of the American mines"
	desc = "In the late seventeenth century the effects of the massive depopulation of the 
American continents caused a dramtic reduction in the production of the American mines."
	style = 1
	action_a = { #Rats #
		name = "Rats"
		command = { type = mine   which = 24 value = -30 }#Jalisco#

	}
}
# 30 is 50% of initial value#

#Additionally 163  167 194 219 25 26 27
#(Azuay Ayacucho Cuzco Potosi Tucuman Saltillo Michoacan Zacatecas)
[/COLOR]

I prefer not to have this for all majors because you gamey results like player controlled Denmark keeps the mine production. I realize that the random events will have widely variable results, but if Spain actually owns all 8 mines the number of events ought to work out. Obviously the amount of actual depletion needs to be tested - I'm just guessing here. I also put the European trigger in there because I didn't think the Indians would have this problem. However I'm on the fence on that one - try to convince me otherwise!

 

[unmerged(5206)]

Is there anyway to make it so the random event only triggers once?

Perhaps if you put command = { type = sleepevent which = [random gold event] } it would work?

 

[unmerged(6159)]

It doesn't go in the log so it wouldn't work. Someone had suggested giving MER a CB on the province - this may work and I will add that in and test it.

 

[unmerged(6159)]

Whenever I've tried to trigger an event from a random event the game has crashed. So it seems to me the possible ways to tag that the event has happened are:
-put country in RM with a non-functioning TAG (MER, PIR, REB, MUS, ITA, HEI - are there any others?)
-give country a non-functioning TAG as a vassal
-possibly add a cot in a non-existant province, or addcore on a non-exisitant province (a Sea zone?) I suspect these will crash the game, but haven't tried.

As far as I can tell this allows for only 12 'flags' for all of the game (at least fro random events). Are the Spanish Mines important enough to warrant using 8 of them? I think not.

That leaves my random event approach, or coding events for all possible owners of the mines, or singling out Spain. I honestly don't know which is best.

 

[Johnny Canuck]

I really like the idea of the random events for reducing the value of the gold mines. I do have one suggestion for them. I notice that one of the triggers is "continent = europe." What if the nation owning the particular mine is a nation like the Ottomans or (God forbid) the Chinese? If a player controls these or other non-Europe powers, it is certainly possible. My suggestion would be that any nation from outside the Americas could be hit by these events. Essentially that means if any outside force conquers the mine, they are liable to suffer depletion. As someone said, this was in large part due to a labor shortage. This likely would have occured if any foreign power moved in, not just a European one.

 

[Lord Baldric]

Hmm. I think I would prefer the option of set events for each possible country, but it's a close call. I guess I don't know enough about how random events work to say for sure. For example, if a country owned all the mines and thus had 16 possible mine depletion random events, how many would on average occur over the relevant timespan? If 16 then great, but if it were much higher or lower wouldn't it be difficult to bring it within an acceptable range? The predictability of set events might be easier to deal with. On the other hand, if the rate of random depletion events was correct, it would be cool not to know before the fact which mines would be hit the hardest- that seems more in line with real life to me.
I also think the events should occur for every owner, not just Europeans. Although the natives would not be affected by population depletion, I would think they would be more affected by the running out of surface lodes since they would be less technologically able to extract deeper ores than higher tech Europeans.

 

[Johnny Canuck]

Originally posted by Lord Baldric
Hmm. I think I would prefer the option of set events for each possible country, but it's a close call. I guess I don't know enough about how random events work to say for sure. For example, if a country owned all the mines and thus had 16 possible mine depletion random events, how many would on average occur over the relevant timespan? If 16 then great, but if it were much higher or lower wouldn't it be difficult to bring it within an acceptable range?

I'm no expert on random events, but considering the number of events & the limits on the dates during which they can happen, I would be shocked if 16 or more happened during the relevant period. My hunch would be a lower figure, but only testing repeatedly could come with any reasonable guess.

 

[unmerged(6159)]

Firstly, on a side point the Ottomans do meet the 'capital=europe' trigger as both Thrace and Anatolia are in Europe. As I mentioned I'm willing to be talked out of this, but I'd still prefer NOT={capital = america} (or whatever the region is). I see the locals being a little less nasty in their expoitation of labour, and it seems to me that demographic collapse was the more important reason. As to the surface lodes being depleted - it is true, but by the end of the 18th century production was near peak levels again, so I'm against the Incas/Aztecs/Chimu getting hit with this. But I'd be glad to hear arguments for.

If the choice is to use random events I would spend a little while running from a Spanish save in 1640 through the period to work out how many events are really needed. I think 25% to 50% loss actually happening for each mine is the right target, and I think it can be worked out pretty easily. Over the 50 year period each country would get over 20 events, so I guess there could be a problem if someone owns all 8 mines. Still I don't think that should be the basis for the decision. My guess on the arguments for random vs non-random events are
RANDOM
-will always hit player country that has conquered the mines
-Adds some uncertainty as to which mines will be hit harder, and which will end up being most valuable, which I think is nice.
-may be problematic in terms of getting enough events.
NON-RANDOM
-player controlled minors won't get hit (I'm not willing to code for every single country. If someone else is this goes away)
-Mine depletion more predictable, although exact date will still be unknown
-No problem with right number of events.

 

[unmerged(6159)]

Actually if there is a problem of not getting 8 random events in the historical time frame, I think it'sm perfectly reasonable to extend the time scale by a couple of decades on wither side.

 

[Johnny Canuck]

Yeah, I'd go with a NOT = { capital = Americas } (or whatever it is) as well. It makes sense historically & logically, as Isaac Brock points out. I'd also go with the random events over non-random - it make them unpredictable, & there wouldn't need to be events for every non-Americas country.

P.S. Sorry about forgetting about the Ottoman capital thing. Oops!

 

[Lord Baldric]

I'm still for hitting everyone with it- Amricans included.
Look, as it's set up now, the natives shouldn't even be getting anywhere near this gold/silver production anyway. They took relatively little out of the ground compared to the Spanish, so no one should worry about reducing their mine values, because with them in control, the mines shouldn't be worth that much as it is. If anything, the mines should be not very good UNTIL the Europeans take over, and then have events to ramp them up to their starting game levels, and then down again once the depletion kicks in. (but this is just to much work)
Another point, having it not affect the Indians opens up a small exploit whereby a European power could simply wait or otherwise arrange for the mines to be in native hands during the relevant period, and then take them over afterwards to assure they maintain high value. This probabally wouldn't be a big factor, but it could be under some circumstances

 

[unmerged(6159)]

LB - I should have mentioned this earlier, but I guess I thought that you might have read the thread. I have scripted events that won't turn the mines on until the europeans discover the appropriate area - they have a value of 1 until that point making them almost worthless. It's a side issue but it is slightly relevant. I will be submitting these for the EEP.

I actually think your point about the exploit is a good one. I believe New Spain/Mexico is available as a revolter by 1650, and they SHOULD get the event.

I have been thinking about it was coming around to your point of view before reading your post. The New Spain thing clinches it for me.

The demographic collapse would have happened even if the native nations had survived. They perhaps wouldn't have been so reliant on 'slave' labor and might have mined in a less labor intensive way, but they would have had labor shortages. This is the counter argument to my initial argument and I don't find either compelling.

What I had been thinking (before LB brought up Mexico) is that for an SP game (and in MP I think it's fair to assume Spain will own the mines) the possibilities are:
-Spain somehow manages to take the mines. I've seen them do it so it can happen
-The player takes the mines.
-The natives are still there.

In the first two cases the mines should be reduced. In the third case the natives ought to be wiped out anyway, and if reducing the mines helps that I'm all in favour.

So my new and improved opinion is that all nations should get the failure of the mines events, and that they should be random. LB, what are your thoughts on the random vs. non-random, and if we go non-random which countries shoudl be included?