I'm in Feb 1940 and I have 101 Infantry (9 more on the queue for Barbarossa), 7 Mot Infantry (7 more in queue), 5 L Arm, 8 Arm (9 more in queue), 10 Mountain, 2 HQ (with 4 more on the way) -> 162 divisions (excluding current and future garrisons) Nearly all of my divisions are brigaded.
I find it weird that you used such a small force and won, and kilolima said he didn't make ANY additional armour and infantry and won.

I thought airforces didn't make that much of a difference due to the superstacks (although I do have 18 Tac Bombers, 13 Int, 4 Fighters with more on the way)
I suspect there are four major differences between our armies:
(i) my divisions and brigades were all fully upgraded and fully reinforced as of May 1941 when I declared war on Russia,
(ii) I had many more HQ's, the idea being that they increase ESE because supply becomes a big problem as you drive east,
(iii) I had 452 manpower left in my MP pool to use as reinforcements whereas I suspect your MP pool is quite low, and
(iv) as you pointed out your army is larger and you have many more divisions.
I guess it comes down to whether the combined impact of (i) + (ii) + (iii) is more or less important than (iv).
I did reload, but that was during peacetime to change my production strategy
Sure, something like that's perfectly normal, and that's not really what I meant. What I was referring to is a campaign "do-over" if say someone suddenly found 20 of their best divisions surrounded deep inside Russia and reloaded from an autosave to try again. On the other hand, this is a game, and as such is meant to be fun. Besides, since it takes many hours to play the Mod all the way through to Dec 1946, it can be hard to stay focused and if someone makes a dumb mistake (like not noticing the allies have landed in Norway or Greece) then why not reload. At the end of the day, if somebody decides to reload from a save and try an alternative approach then that's their call.
Very good mod, I reached June 1940, beat France (note the Schlieffen-Moltke plan [the one including the Netherlands] works better then the Manstein plan, but prepare defences also in Cologne and launch diversionary attacks from there, as the French AI pours troops into Luxembourg and Belgium [including Ardennes so that why Manstein plan not so good] but try and flank the Maginot line from Belgium border as I did and encircle around 40 divisions
I generally use the Schlieffen Plan as well, for the same reason. It comes down to the HOI2 map, where taking the Ardennes province (named Bastogne?) does not really give you a clear path westward. The AI can easily move troops to stop you. I have not tried the E3 map (for AoD) or looked at the DH map, but maybe the layout of those maps is different.
I find it silly that my ships have to go around the British Isles to rebase in western French ports, or did that happen in real life?
It is pretty accurate because the British would have pulverized any ships they saw going through the Channel. As far as I know, there was only one major movement of Kriegsmarine ships through the English Channel during the war. To plagiarize Wikipedia:
The Channel Dash, (codenamed Operation Cerberus by the Germans, occurred on 11 Feb 1942 when a German Kriegsmarine squadron consisting of Scharnhorst, Gneisenau, Prinz Eugen, supported by a number of smaller ships, ran a British blockade and successfully sailed from Brest in Brittany to their home bases in Germany via the English Channel.
And are submarines a good tactic against the UK? I've managed to have around 30 submarines by June 1940, is that good?
I always build some subs for flavor, but since the UK (as well as USA, JAP, and ITA) receive free convoy ships via event, you likely will not be able to do a successful blockade.
I think I'm going to restart the 1936 (not necessarily reload) scenario as I've done so badly.
Your call, but why not keep playing until the Barbarossa Campaign? That's the best part of the Mod, at least in my opinion.
Is installing Goebbels as Minister for Security good for MP as he's has +10% for foreign MP use, or is that good?
You should install Goebbels as soon as he becomes available because you need all the MP you can get. I moved up his availability by a few years compared to vanilla AoD. I can't remember exactly, but in vanilla I think he is available in 1943(?) and in TRM you can install him in 1940(?).
Should I invest in strategic bombers to ensure the UK isn't a threat?
I have never build strategic bombers as Germany. It may work, but it seems like a huge investment of IC and tech research for little gain.
Or naval bombers to help me try to invade the UK and set up a puppet state? Or would that be too costly?
If you can build 4-8 naval bombers, that would be ideal, but I never build them until the point where I have almost defeated the Soviets, and I don't start researching naval bomber techs until late 1941 or early 1942.
I usually put 6 BBIV and 4 CV and 6 CVL in my production queue after I launch Barbarossa and after I have discovered the Ship Assembly Line tech. That way, by the time I achieve Bitter Peace, then the Kriegsmarine should be large enough to attempt a Sealowe.