Tomorrow Belongs To Me - A 'Democratic' Germany AAR

[Wraith11B]

Not to be a bit of a downer, but if you set up the postwar too well... Why would there be another war? Unless you're looking at just having the HoI4 function as the what if (which I can absolutely understand, it's essentially what I intend to do with my AAR plan in HoI3), you have to build in some level of inequality.

That said, I don't know if you have read The Deluge by Adam Tooze, but he goes into detail about exactly how closely run the financial aid went for the UK in the United States. There were several instances of the UK basically selling itself to obtain credit from the United States for the war. I am interested--given the bit about the US not being as big a factor here--in how much their funding has arranged the cards in TTL.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Why would there be another war?

What, when Japan, China, colonialism, communism and the US/UK rivalry are still present?

Not to be a bit of a downer, but if you set up the postwar too well...

Europe might be quiet for a while but within a decade the power plays between various great powers and their pet german state would begin, plus the larger eastern states as well.

Plus the eastern european wars of independence and anti russia stuff that took up a lot of the 20s is still going to happen, given Poland is going to be a thing and be hungry for more land.

you have to build in some level of inequality.

Whilst the western entente will probably emerge from the war with slightly more of a victory than OTL, they also paid otl level or worse prices. France and the Netherlands got invaded and fought over for multiple years. The British had to fund another massive world war, mostly by itself. And the peace that cometh will be tenuous in central and eastern Europe, the balkans, africa and Asia.

That said, I don't know if you have read The Deluge by Adam Tooze, but he goes into detail about exactly how closely run the financial aid went for the UK in the United States. There were several instances of the UK basically selling itself to obtain credit from the United States for the war. I am interested--given the bit about the US not being as big a factor here--in how much their funding has arranged the cards in TTL.

Oh yeah, the British ended up paying something like £1 million per day for the war whilst it was going on, and very soon are going to have to decide whether they can get massive loans from the US (with equally massive strings attached) or start to cannibalise their economy and empire in the same way all the other countries are already doing. At the moment, they're the only ones emerging from those conflict with anything like a 'proper win', if they can manage their finances, pay off whoever they owe as fast as possible, and don't sacrifice too much to get those debts in the first place.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

The new updates have broken all priority saves and thus I must begin to draw new maps for the AAR, and I might get the new dlc and play test what I currently think the world looks like in 36 (which will probably be different because I suspect we'll have a different eastern europe and balkans by the time we get to it properly).

So, if anyone wishes, go have a look at the current maps and suggest alterations and changes, both for the 1914 and 'current' January 1916 maps.

 

[Wraith11B]

That unfortunate.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Deep into research on the next few updates. One thing that was surprising but perhaps shouldn't have been was how controversial Prussian Militerism was in the German Riech before ww1. Sure, the empire only existed because Prussia was a trigger happy and very militarised society, but few outside of the ruling classes liked being in a country dominated by the army, especially one that had a rather colonial view of 'other' non-prussian germans.

Whilst there will remain a great majority of german nationalists after the war, relatively fewer will be sorry to see the downfall of Prussia, her officer class, and the systems that supported them.

 

[J_Master]

Ok too bad that I've been missing this discussion because of a unknown problem I have with my PC at home, it's way too hard to have a conversation like this when you have to type on your phone. I've toyed around with the idea of Germany being broken up because of WW1 but that was inspired by In the Name of the Tsar and I sadly can't upload it because of those problems. I think there's certainly more push for it here, but this still creates a incredibly volitile situation in Central Europe that the Entente, Britain most, would seek to avoid. Germany is going to be in revolutionary turmoil, and ending the central government in favour of breaking up Germany back into its component parts is going to result in a communist government somewhere. More likely is a a combination of the real treaty, Fuhrerreich's various versions and some additions to take care of the specificities of this scenario. France, Luxembourg and the Netherlands will annex territories and push for territorial security by splitting off a Rhenish state. Czechoslovakia and Poland will do the same with Silesia, and Poland will become suzerain over a East Prussian state. Denmark will at least want some shared controll over the Kiel Canal because it would restore their monopoly over Baltic acess and subsequently strenthen their position moving towards a united Scandinavia. There's also a simple gameplay problem with splitting up Germany: reunifying it requires modern Germany and the Rhineland would sure be one of the last pieces to fall in place, but more importanly a reunified Germany doesn't get access to the German focus tree. If you want to push for a destruction of Germany, "Prussia" will remain the most important componentbleft. One must remember that within the Weimar Republic Prussia was a SPD bulwark, and the solution to Germany's federal problem wasn't clear and party bound. Split off the South and Northwest, include a rump Silesia and what would be left could well be just the old Prussian state which annexed the Thuringian princes and Saxony into a SPD led Brandenburgish Republic. Since this is a obvious victor's peace and not one that aims to include all involved, the League may well just be headquartered in The Hague. Honestly, Germany split by the wrath of the Western Entente does sound interesting, since Central Europe just turns into competing statelets facing revolutions hiring the services of freikorps who can them turn around, coup the government and in turn be invaded by the Western Entente just to weakily install the old government. Just imagine what kind of art this period would inspire?

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

I think there's certainly more push for it here, but this still creates a incredibly volitile situation in Central Europe that the Entente, Britain most, would seek to avoid. Germany is going to be in revolutionary turmoil, and ending the central government in favour of breaking up Germany back into its component parts is going to result in a communist government somewhere.

I think the plan going in, probably for a few years before the war ends, is the above discussed splits.

But then communist revolts show up everywhere and spook the Entente. They'll want bigger, more stable states, all of whom are ran by definitely not-communists (or close enough to be easily pressured by the Etnente...so Hannover, the Rhine Republic etc).

The socialist unrest won't vanish either, esepcially as the far right Prussians and monarchists are so discredited by the defeat and subsequent destruction of the Empire. One of the reasons Ouster will do well later is because he'll have some credible 'I fight Communists' chops, but is also embedded enough in the Establishment that he could get away with talking to moderate left-wing parties.

France, Luxembourg and the Netherlands will annex territories and push for territorial security by splitting off a Rhenish state. Czechoslovakia and Poland will do the same with Silesia, and Poland will become suzerain over a East Prussian state. Denmark will at least want some shared controll over the Kiel Canal because it would restore their monopoly over Baltic acess and subsequently strenthen their position moving towards a united Scandinavia

Might want to get more land for the Netherlands and Luxemburg, though that's probably mostly shot down by the British in favour of reforming Hannover and doing the Rhine Republic, which is naturally going to be in France's sphere. Poland and whatever arises from Austrian Bohemia would certainly like to split Silesia between them but it's one of those regions most likely to be in communist revolt, so they won't be able to actually move in without a fight - and Poland has bigger ones in the East.

Denmark, as I said, depends on whether or not they want to join the Scandinavian union or not, because going back into Holstein fully means more Germans and committing to Danish nationalism rather than pan-Scandinavia. I suspect they'll kick it down the round by getting responsibility for a small rump state there, and then they'll have to do a referendum.

Since this is a obvious victor's peace and not one that aims to include all involved, the League may well just be headquartered in The Hague.

Depends what happens between 1916 and the end of the war, and who 'runs' the conference. The League might come into being but I'm not sure why it would, though an International High Court of Arbitration might be officially established at the Hague, and the trading standards that are contained in Versailles might lead to some kind of trade council too. Who shows any enthusiasm for international organisations that contain nations rather than charities though...not sure.

Honestly, Germany split by the wrath of the Western Entente does sound interesting, since Central Europe just turns into competing statelets facing revolutions hiring the services of freikorps who can them turn around, coup the government and in turn be invaded by the Western Entente just to weakily install the old government. Just imagine what kind of art this period would inspire?

It'll be interesting because of the variety of states this will create. Hannover will be a blend of British and German conservatism and liberalism, the Rhineland will be under enormous pressure as well as the Bohemian post war Paris scene. German Expressionism will no doubt be even darker and distorted.

EDIT: All this to say that everyone goes in with their own agedna and desires, if not proper plans. And then it'lll all fall part and be mushed together in the great game of diplomacy. Hopefully everyone walks away somewhat satisfied and whatever they've agreed doesn't cause a war in a decade or so.

Given we are talking about the TTL versions of the WW1 peace treaties, this low bar of success will take some doing.

 

[J_Master]

Ok I finally got the forums working again, which as it turns out was a problem entirely ISP side, so thanks for that!

I think the plan going in, probably for a few years before the war ends, is the above discussed splits.

But then communist revolts show up everywhere and spook the Entente. They'll want bigger, more stable states, all of whom are ran by definitely not-communists (or close enough to be easily pressured by the Etnente...so Hannover, the Rhine Republic etc).

The socialist unrest won't vanish either, esepcially as the far right Prussians and monarchists are so discredited by the defeat and subsequent destruction of the Empire. One of the reasons Ouster will do well later is because he'll have some credible 'I fight Communists' chops, but is also embedded enough in the Establishment that he could get away with talking to moderate left-wing parties.

I think the basic initial demand pushed by France and the Netherlands would be the abolition of Germany plus a territorial reduction of Prussia. so giving up everything gained during German unification and everything west of the Elbe. And then in this powervacuum communists try to seize power also very much in the Hungarian way, I.E. they do it in name of protecting Germany just as much as it is for their revolution. They are eventually put down and at that point the intervening powers would have to decide on what to do because what they just tried with giving Saxe-Schwanz und Hodenfolter full soevrinity as a 5000 people microstate with a economy fully based on a singular university doesn't work. At that point you get your reorginisation. And the various states would represent various visions for Germany. The Rhineland? A federal conservative Catholic republic. Northern Germany? Federal liberal aristocratic monarchy. Brandenburg? Unitary social democratic republic. South Germany? A odd confederation between the more liberal democratic Swabian states and a hard right Bavaria. If Poland and Czechoslovakia are a part of the intervention, Silesia could well be a complicated mandate between those two, a Western overseeer and Brandenburg.

Might want to get more land for the Netherlands and Luxemburg, though that's probably mostly shot down by the British in favour of reforming Hannover and doing the Rhine Republic, which is naturally going to be in France's sphere. Poland and whatever arises from Austrian Bohemia would certainly like to split Silesia between them but it's one of those regions most likely to be in communist revolt, so they won't be able to actually move in without a fight - and Poland has bigger ones in the East.

Denmark, as I said, depends on whether or not they want to join the Scandinavian union or not, because going back into Holstein fully means more Germans and committing to Danish nationalism rather than pan-Scandinavia. I suspect they'll kick it down the round by getting responsibility for a small rump state there, and then they'll have to do a referendum.

Annexations beyond France regaining Alsace-Lorraine would be minor anyways. But there would be annexations, especially as the war is harsher the need for gains and real security in terms of space is greater. For the Netherlands, a good gain could be gaining the coal concessions just across the border in the new Rhenish Republic. There were plans to connect up the Beatrix Mine with the German tunnel system just across the border, having the concessiosn come into Dutch hands is a easy economic victory and can help reconstruction. For Denmark you're pretty spot on. Holstein probably in a personal union with Denmark, Sleswig annexed and the canal under Danish ownership. A minor German minority in Sleswig can be accepted, but if you're going on the Scandinavian tour Holstein would not. Hamburg and Lubeck would probably be a part of that Lower German state, so that would make for some fun geography...

It'll be interesting because of the variety of states this will create. Hannover will be a blend of British and German conservatism and liberalism, the Rhineland will be under enormous pressure as well as the Bohemian post war Paris scene. German Expressionism will no doubt be even darker and distorted.

With chaos already brewing greater in Russia, and Germany set for a greater degree of chaos, I can very much imagine a explosion of Conservative Revolution aligned soldier's memoirs and novels. I think it would be the greatest irony if the rump Prussian state becomes the gathering of the discredited Prussian conservatives and militarists all under the benevolent protection of Poland.

As a final note, I think the best moment to rewrite the introduction would be once Versailles is set in stone, since that would be the rough order of things once Von Ouster would be asked to assume office. Best bet for where he assumes office would be Brandenburg, since he remains a aristocrat and would probably retreat to a reduced estate once things have settled down. Plus it puts him in the best position to start putting Germany back together

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Best bet for where he assumes office would be Brandenburg, since he remains a aristocrat and would probably retreat to a reduced estate once things have settled down. Plus it puts him in the best position to start putting Germany back together

I have him currently vaguely down as beating the war crimes charges against him (unless Russia somehow have a seat at the table in 1919) and spending the 20s becoming THE thorn in the side of communism in Eastern Europe, helping any new country smash their Red uprisings plus any soviet feelers. He thus gets (mostly) rehabilited image wise in the West, whilst the East like him quite a lot, esepcially Poland and whatever Baltics are around. Then finally something so bad happens in one of the German states that he is compelled to go back (very possibly a Nazi-like takeover of Bavaria) by not just the German states but some people in the West and East.

He does his thing, and starts getting things in order by the end of the 20s, but then the main plot starts to happen.

I think the basic initial demand pushed by France and the Netherlands would be the abolition of Germany plus a territorial reduction of Prussia

If the Germans are lucky, they will be able to put as much as possible on Prussia in the aftermath, which to be fair is true to some extent. Everyone else wants Germany clipped down to size at the very least, and the destruction of Prussia and Prussianism in particular because of how destabilising it is inherently.

And the various states would represent various visions for Germany. The Rhineland? A federal conservative Catholic republic. Northern Germany? Federal liberal aristocratic monarchy. Brandenburg? Unitary social democratic republic. South Germany? A odd confederation between the more liberal democratic Swabian states and a hard right Bavaria. If Poland and Czechoslovakia are a part of the intervention, Silesia could well be a complicated mandate between those two, a Western overseeer and Brandenburg.

Whilst I do think German nationalism is going to pull gravimetrically back together again eventually, the premise is very interesting, and will lead to a very fun 20s to think and write about.

 

[J_Master]

I have him currently vaguely down as beating the war crimes charges against him (unless Russia somehow have a seat at the table in 1919) and spending the 20s becoming THE thorn in the side of communism in Eastern Europe, helping any new country smash their Red uprisings plus any soviet feelers. He thus gets (mostly) rehabilited image wise in the West, whilst the East like him quite a lot, esepcially Poland and whatever Baltics are around. Then finally something so bad happens in one of the German states that he is compelled to go back (very possibly a Nazi-like takeover of Bavaria) by not just the German states but some people in the West and East.

He does his thing, and starts getting things in order by the end of the 20s, but then the main plot starts to happen.

Now this is the kind of literature stuff I was mentioning. I can imagine there being literature written by the people who served under him. Von Ouster can be a very effective anti-communist German fighter, moreso than the German forces IRL were because he maintains a good relationship with at the very least the Polish government. He wouldn't be the type to try to pull what Von der Göltz tried to pull in the Baltics and get the Baltic German population subsequently expulsed. I can imagine that not even happening which justifies Germany trying to form the UBD more since there is a Baltic German population left. He could also be a very good vent on right wing unrest, as militant rightwingers could just join up with him on Europe's eastern border and fight commies there instead of, you know, overthrowing the local German government. Even a SPD led Brandenburg could much appriciate something like that, since they're not fond of commies as well (looking at you Reichsexekution of Saxony). Bavaria, Würrtemberg, Baden, Hohenzollern and perhaps the remaining Hessian state could all be united by a treaty of association and then shit goes up once there's a succesfull Bierkellerputsch (later than IRL). The danger here that the Allies are also playing is that Austria is even more just a desperate German state trying to be tied back up into the natural whole.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

The danger here that the Allies are also playing is that Austria is even more just a desperate German state trying to be tied back up into the natural whole.

And that Austria and Bavaria apparently did not get on by the 1910s, meaning that them now being neighbours and of roughly equal strength, with the latter being increasingly stronger and more Nazi-like...not good for regional stability.

I can imagine there being literature written by the people who served under him.

His own war memoirs, if he releases them. Multiple other important figures who served with or beneath him. The Poles deciding he was another founder of theirs and thus to be heralded. Same in the Baltics. Same with the Czechs, whom he fought with in Galicia. There's the folk tales of what the Jagers did in Russia - both the wartime propaganda and then the post war western re-evaluation given that Russia was the terrifying enemy again.

He could also be a very good vent on right wing unrest, as militant rightwingers could just join up with him on Europe's eastern border and fight commies there instead of, you know, overthrowing the local German government. Even a SPD led Brandenburg could much appreciate something like that, since they're not fond of commies as well (looking at you Reichsexekution of Saxony).

Indeed, a lot of them would follow him into exile and die fighting in the East, arguably in pursuit of a good cause rather than what they actually ended up doing OTL. That would be the other side of it, of course, in the West. What happens if this increasingly popular and experienced war hero comes back to Germany and brings his own army and eastern support back with him?

Bavaria, Würrtemberg, Baden, Hohenzollern and perhaps the remaining Hessian state could all be united by a treaty of association and then shit goes up once there's a succesfull Bierkellerputsch (later than IRL). The danger here that the Allies are also playing is that Austria is even more just a desperate German state trying to be tied back up into the natural whole.

Yeah, I think none of them are eager to be vivisected by the French and Dutch whenever they feel like (and they both are going to do nasty things in the Rhine Republic when it suits them). Hannover might go a bit better, depending on how its set up, but everyone else bands together out of fear and necessity for at least mutual defence, with perhaps the undercurrent that the hope being they'll eventually be allowed/convince both Germans and the Entente to let them federalise or form their own union again.

 

[J_Master]

His own war memoirs, if he releases them. Multiple other important figures who served with or beneath him. The Poles deciding he was another founder of theirs and thus to be heralded. Same in the Baltics. Same with the Czechs, whom he fought with in Galicia. There's the folk tales of what the Jagers did in Russia - both the wartime propaganda and then the post war western re-evaluation given that Russia was the terrifying enemy again.

In folk myth in the Eastern Netherlands, bishop Bernhard von Galen of Münster made a lasating impression as the reincarnation of Wodan. I could well see Von Ouster making a entry like that. He'll probably also maintain some pretty good relations with Gustav Noske as well.

And that Austria and Bavaria apparently did not get on by the 1910s, meaning that them now being neighbours and of roughly equal strength, with the latter being increasingly stronger and more Nazi-like...not good for regional stability.

Mutual state sponsorship of terror against the other?

Yeah, I think none of them are eager to be vivisected by the French and Dutch whenever they feel like (and they both are going to do nasty things in the Rhine Republic when it suits them). Hannover might go a bit better, depending on how its set up, but everyone else bands together out of fear and necessity for at least mutual defence, with perhaps the undercurrent that the hope being they'll eventually be allowed/convince both Germans and the Entente to let them federalise or form their own union again.

The Kingdom of Hannover falls to the Brunswick branch of the family, who renounced the title in 1913 to be able to rule Brunswick (long story). Hannover may be a bit of a case like Bavaria, where there is a treaty of association and a obviously junior partner in the deal, but with a couple of big city states being a part they do hold a big part of the economic weight in that union so it would be a lot more equal. They have a very big advantage in that British connection as well and have somebody to vouch for them, so besides some minor border area's that Hannover may lose to the Netherlands I imagine they get out relatively well. I may not know too much about regional politics of Interbellum Germany, but the Hannoverian led union may devellop the closest to a British-esque three party system

And I couldn't help myself but make a rough interpretation of what Germany would look like for the Interbellum once the initial dust of the war had settled down.

Also, with the new German focus tree, would any bit of the Hitlerite tree even be needed? It doesn't seem like that good of a fit anymore to me, since you can now also pull of the Anschluss (even if you already could) as democratic Germany for example

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

In folk myth in the Eastern Netherlands, bishop Bernhard von Galen of Münster made a lasating impression as the reincarnation of Wodan. I could well see Von Ouster making a entry like that.

It helps that he didn't have a role in the invasion or occupation of that country. Though he will be in charge of various war ministries and internal affairs soon enough, so his reputation won't be entirely distant foreign celebrity or anti-soviet fighter.

He'll probably also maintain some pretty good relations with Gustav Noske as well.

Brings up the point of the rather remarkable talented (and some fiendishly evil) post war German politicians all get split up TTL, much like the Austrian empire losing a lot of its talent to czechslovakia and other successor states.

Where would the significant players end up?

Mutual state sponsorship of terror against the other?

Well...Austria would be between the rather rightwing to authoritarian Bavaria and the increasingly right wing and authoritarian Italy (unless the communists or more mainstream monarchists win out...but the latter has the problem of the king being a wet blanket).

Does mean theyd have good relations with Brandenburg though, especially if/when Ouster comes back.

The Kingdom of Hannover falls to the Brunswick branch of the family, who renounced the title in 1913 to be able to rule Brunswick (long story). Hannover may be a bit of a case like Bavaria, where there is a treaty of association and a obviously junior partner in the deal, but with a couple of big city states being a part they do hold a big part of the economic weight in that union so it would be a lot more equal. They have a very big advantage in that British connection as well and have somebody to vouch for them, so besides some minor border area's that Hannover may lose to the Netherlands I imagine they get out relatively well. I may not know too much about regional politics of Interbellum Germany, but the Hannoverian led union may devellop the closest to a British-esque three party system

Means all the (rather German) British aristocracy can reclaim some of their roots too.

And I couldn't help myself but make a rough interpretation of what Germany would look like for the Interbellum once the initial dust of the war had settled down.

Mm. That is a big rhineland. Not sure France would like that.

Thats also a very large bavaria, which I can see happening but also no one except maybe italy liking that.

Brandenburg...or whatever they would call it both internally and in anglosphere (deutchland/germany dicotomy) is also pretty big and looks a awful lot like prussia, although without silesia and the rhineland, they don't quite have the industrial heft of even the 1850s.

Not sure whether hannover would go that far east but the UK being OK with a tiny north German buffer between Hannover, Denmark/Scandinavia and brandenburg sounds very plausible.

Also, with the new German focus tree, would any bit of the Hitlerite tree even be needed? It doesn't seem like that good of a fit anymore to me, since you can now also pull of the Anschluss (even if you already could) as democratic Germany for example

I actually haven't looked much at it yet but I have the dlc so I shall do some small investigation and notes at some point...

 

[J_Master]

Thats also a very large bavaria, which I can see happening but also no one except maybe italy liking that.

Bavaria and the South German states associated with it would be a very loose collection. Remember, Bavaria had to be bribed into Germany. These are all the greatest distrusters of a central government and the differences amongst themselves would make any attempt at consolidation into a functional state difficult. They stick together against left wing revolutionaries and French incursion. They are not a powerplayer in the German game, untill the moment shit hits the fan in Bavaria and Von Ouster returns from the east...

Brandenburg...or whatever they would call it both internally and in anglosphere (deutchland/germany dicotomy) is also pretty big and looks a awful lot like prussia, although without silesia and the rhineland, they don't quite have the industrial heft of even the 1850s.

I mainly expect Saxony-Thuringia to be grouped with Brandenburg simply because otherwise because of the powervacuum in Thuringia and Saxony in and of itself would just be communist. Brandenburg being ruled by the SPD and with it being the old stronghold of the Prussian aristocracy and by extension the Freikorps offer a very strong bulwark against communism with strong social democratic political controll. Gustav Noske says "Social Democracy is non-negotiable!"

Not sure whether hannover would go that far east but the UK being OK with a tiny north German buffer between Hannover, Denmark/Scandinavia and brandenburg sounds very plausible.

I'm just gathering the minor German states in the region, and the Mecklenburgs wouldn't like to be absorbed into the unitary Brandenburg. This way, the Hannoverian led union would have controll over the majority of Germany's ports and through it Britain would be able to have a very strong hand in trade. Remove Mecklenburg and it decreases the British hand. I think British influence in Hannover would be so strong their parliament could be British style, i.e. with the two benches instead of the half circle.

Means all the (rather German) British aristocracy can reclaim some of their roots too.

Read up on the whole spat on Brunswick's succession before WW1. Quite comical IMO

Well...Austria would be between the rather rightwing to authoritarian Bavaria and the increasingly right wing and authoritarian Italy (unless the communists or more mainstream monarchists win out...but the latter has the problem of the king being a wet blanket).

Does mean theyd have good relations with Brandenburg though, especially if/when Ouster comes back.

Don't forget, Austria also has a strong left wing with the SDAPÖ.

Brings up the point of the rather remarkable talented (and some fiendishly evil) post war German politicians all get split up TTL, much like the Austrian empire losing a lot of its talent to czechslovakia and other successor states.

Where would the significant players end up?

The inertia of Berlin may end up with a lot of already prominent players choosing to stick with the Brandenburger Republic. Which leaves the other countries to end up with Interbellum newcomers. Prussia would end up with the Prussian aristocracy who the Entente don't get their hands on or serve a shorter sentence and then are allowed to return "home"

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

I mainly expect Saxony-Thuringia to be grouped with Brandenburg simply because otherwise because of the powervacuum in Thuringia and Saxony in and of itself would just be communist. Brandenburg being ruled by the SPD and with it being the old stronghold of the Prussian aristocracy and by extension the Freikorps offer a very strong bulwark against communism with strong social democratic political controll. Gustav Noske says "Social Democracy is non-negotiable!"

Yes...they might be the first to start coalescing then...1919 to 20. Quickly enough that it panics the entente in enlarging hannover, but because the reasons are stopping a rather large German communist state arising in the middle of the other successors, Brandenburg gets a pass.

Then the name of the game, especially if the peace conference is still ongoing, is not as many small states as possible but more stable, stronger and most assuredly not socialist ones for the region.

I'm just gathering the minor German states in the region, and the Mecklenburgs wouldn't like to be absorbed into the unitary Brandenburg. This way, the Hannoverian led union would have controll over the majority of Germany's ports and through it Britain would be able to have a very strong hand in trade. Remove Mecklenburg and it decreases the British hand. I think British influence in Hannover would be so strong their parliament could be British style, i.e. with the two benches instead of the half circle.

Presumably the intial influence is two houses, common law and a constitutional monarchy...if they can decide who gets that one. Two houses means a Lords, so the countries can mingle much more easily, and the Commons for liberal (ish) democracy (ish).

The main british aims for the kingdom will be making sure it is finacially viable and defendable (because after ww1, they aren't paying for an occupation force or a state subsidy for very long).

It'd be a big trader nation given how much rhineland and french traffic goes up the rhine, plus all those ports for resources to and from the new German states...

The inertia of Berlin may end up with a lot of already prominent players choosing to stick with the Brandenburger Republic. Which leaves the other countries to end up with Interbellum newcomers. Prussia would end up with the Prussian aristocracy who the Entente don't get their hands on or serve a shorter sentence and then are allowed to return "home"

'Old' prussia is going to be so weird compared to the rest of the successor states, if indeed it gets to exist at all.

Very traditional, monarchist but not THAT monarchy, absolutely despised by their neighbours and distrusted by the Entente.

If Ouster does manage to reunify everywhere else eventually, that place will be a big problem both for him and everyone else trying to move on and develope relations with the new Germany.

 

[J_Master]

Yes...they might be the first to start coalescing then...1919 to 20. Quickly enough that it panics the entente in enlarging hannover, but because the reasons are stopping a rather large German communist state arising in the middle of the other successors, Brandenburg gets a pass.

Then the name of the game, especially if the peace conference is still ongoing, is not as many small states as possible but more stable, stronger and most assuredly not socialist ones for the region.

I think that the Entente would push Brandenburg to use the old Prussian parliamentarian buildings to decidedly enforce that Germany is devided and none can claim its mantle. With it, the abandoned Reichstag and especially the words "Dem Deutschen Volk" engraved on it during the war would become the symbol of the devided Germany and its desire to reunify.

Presumably the intial influence is two houses, common law and a constitutional monarchy...if they can decide who gets that one. Two houses means a Lords, so the countries can mingle much more easily, and the Commons for liberal (ish) democracy (ish).

The main british aims for the kingdom will be making sure it is finacially viable and defendable (because after ww1, they aren't paying for an occupation force or a state subsidy for very long).

I think it'd be like the German Confederation, the Hannoverian king is president of the union, he's explicitly not the monarch of the whole. The other states in the union maintain their princes and mayors and all deliver delegates to the parliament. Really, do look up the Brunwicker succession because it also shows the deepseated distrust between Britain and Germany before WW1. The deals made that allowed for Ernest August to take the throne could easily be declared void and all hell would break loose over the succession, especially because Ernest August is married to the daughter of Wilhelm II

It'd be a big trader nation given how much rhineland and french traffic goes up the rhine, plus all those ports for resources to and from the new German states...

It's hinterland would mainly be Brandenburg through the Elbe, with it the Saxon industry and old Prussian farming estates. The Rhine goes up into the Netherlands. But on this point I also do think the Netherlands and France would have their differences in policy. Yes, both seek security in space and thus the seperation of the Rhineland from Germany and a degree of political controll over it. But France's means of gaining benefit from it would be wholly extraction based, whilst for the Netherlands a healthy Rhinelander economy is important because that means by extension a healthy Dutch economy through Rhine based trade. Sure, both would seek extraction as a means of reparations, but the Netherlands has a different long term vision than France.

'Old' prussia is going to be so weird compared to the rest of the successor states, if indeed it gets to exist at all.

Very traditional, monarchist but not THAT monarchy, absolutely despised by their neighbours and distrusted by the Entente.

If Ouster does manage to reunify everywhere else eventually, that place will be a big problem both for him and everyone else trying to move on and develope relations with the new Germany.

This does really reinforce Von Ouster as the only man capable of reunifying Germany. Look, we all know he's going to be able to pull it off, so may as well hail him as the Second Bismarck already. But really, no other man would be able to bridge the gap between the rest of Germany and Prussia that would come into existance. And even if somebody else would be able to bridge that gap, would they be able to convince Poland to let them reannex Prussia?

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

I think it'd be like the German Confederation, the Hannoverian king is president of the union, he's explicitly not the monarch of the whole. The other states in the union maintain their princes and mayors and all deliver delegates to the parliament. Really, do look up the Brunwicker succession because it also shows the deepseated distrust between Britain and Germany before WW1. The deals made that allowed for Ernest August to take the throne could easily be declared void and all hell would break loose over the succession, especially because Ernest August is married to the daughter of Wilhelm II

The premise is great because its so awkward. And thus, closer to a real life political and historical compromise. The British would quite like a friendly north German successor...but its Hannover, which carries with it both good British relations and history, and also tremendously awkward at best, outright hostile at worst, political and monarchical wranglings. Even worse, it means the British have to get involved with the Hohenzollerns, something they spent the previous 4 years desperately trying to downplay.

It culminates in a collision of various British deep desires, as well as several deep British fears - another friendly but non-threatening European minor with good historical and cultural relations with Britain, royal intrigue that might embarrass the king, potentially reneging on succession deals and treaties, involving the House in Royal affairs (at the behest and in favour of a GERMAN foreign ruler), and making Entente obligations harder (they are supposed to be committed to basically destroying the German monarchy and Prussian traditions, yet sort of have to suggest raising another one up to monarch).

Idk... @El Pip , you're an Imperial FO whisperer. What would they do in such a situation?

It's hinterland would mainly be Brandenburg through the Elbe, with it the Saxon industry and old Prussian farming estates. The Rhine goes up into the Netherlands. But on this point I also do think the Netherlands and France would have their differences in policy. Yes, both seek security in space and thus the seperation of the Rhineland from Germany and a degree of political controll over it. But France's means of gaining benefit from it would be wholly extraction based, whilst for the Netherlands a healthy Rhinelander economy is important because that means by extension a healthy Dutch economy through Rhine based trade. Sure, both would seek extraction as a means of reparations, but the Netherlands has a different long term vision than France.

Better than Belgium OTL then...

This does really reinforce Von Ouster as the only man capable of reunifying Germany. Look, we all know he's going to be able to pull it off, so may as well hail him as the Second Bismarck already. But really, no other man would be able to bridge the gap between the rest of Germany and Prussia that would come into existance. And even if somebody else would be able to bridge that gap, would they be able to convince Poland to let them reannex Prussia?

Yeah, it's a only Nixon can go to China situation, but several times over. We need someone who is well respected by the Old Guard, has at least some credit with the West, firm bonds with the Eastern states, reliably anti-communist but not vehemently anti-socialist, but also won't be couped or fall to the Nazis or similar groups either...and preferably has the loyalty of most of the various armies if it came down to it. And at various points it probably will come down to it, before and after reunification (which would be a piecemeal thing I expect, slowly making the north strong and stable, then getting associate members and a wider cooperation and economic area involved, and then integration over time).

 

[El Pip]

The premise is great because its so awkward. And thus, closer to a real life political and historical compromise. The British would quite like a friendly north German successor...but its Hannover, which carries with it both good British relations and history, and also tremendously awkward at best, outright hostile at worst, political and monarchical wranglings. Even worse, it means the British have to get involved with the Hohenzollerns, something they spent the previous 4 years desperately trying to downplay.

It culminates in a collision of various British deep desires, as well as several deep British fears - another friendly but non-threatening European minor with good historical and cultural relations with Britain, royal intrigue that might embarrass the king, potentially reneging on succession deals and treaties, involving the House in Royal affairs (at the behest and in favour of a GERMAN foreign ruler), and making Entente obligations harder (they are supposed to be committed to basically destroying the German monarchy and Prussian traditions, yet sort of have to suggest raising another one up to monarch).

Idk... @El Pip , you're an Imperial FO whisperer. What would they do in such a situation?

The FO and Civil Service did like a federation because it enables you to say contradictory things to different groups while not actually lying and herd together different groups. That therefore is the problem, because they've long used it to weld different chunks together they can see how it can be abused as a vehicle to re-unite Germany, plus of course the whole German Confederation issue proves that even if you go Confederation vs Federation you still run the risk of the negative outcome (i.e. reunited Germany).

The FO preferred model might actually be The Raj and the Princely States. The Raj is a good model as it is mix and match and was quite good at maintaing just enough unity to work while also keeping separate identities - even after Indepedence it took decades and a few invasions to get all the Princely States to submit. This is important as the British will want leaders who have a strong motivation to resist a unified Germany as it will cost them personally, whether that is petty Kings or regional parliaments the important thing is to give them power and remind them they will get squished in unification, because that was what happened last time. The Raj approach also provides a good example on the obligation front, the German monarchy will be abolished and very explicitly so, some lower level and regional monarchs are a different thing, perhaps different titles are used. Does it need to be King of Hanover, could it be Soverign Prince or something similar, muddy the waters a bit.

On that note I think the FO will also not be particularly precious about claims and succession, theses little Germanic nations are going to be 'new states' (from some perspectives) so creative options are available and I think they would push for them, it is a bit later but if you can buck the rules to kick Edward VIII out then surely you can be at least as ruthless on a foreign court. Therefore I think the arugment will be that Hannover does not actually need to be ruled by the House of Hannover/Brunswick/whatever, particulary if it keeps the Hohenzollerns out of the picture, which I agree is a priority. I'm not even sure they'd be allowed to retain Duke of Brunswick frankly, the Hohenzollern link while ruling Prussia is just begging for trouble, if they do it is a courtesty title and nothing more. For Hannover once you look elsewhere there are options. As an example The Duke of Cambridge was Regent in Hannover, a descendant from the FitzGeorge line could be fun. Could do a Sweden and draft in a foreign general, obviously my preference is King Haig of Hannover as it would be delightful. To be mildly more seriously Prince Arthur (3rd son of Queen Victoria) is alive, healthy and plausible.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

To be mildly more seriously Prince Arthur (3rd son of Queen Victoria) is alive, healthy and plausible.

Is that the one who was governor General of Canada? He has constitutional and governmental experience at least...and soundness. Very important quality.

The FO and Civil Service did like a federation because it enables you to say contradictory things to different groups while not actually lying and herd together different groups. That therefore is the problem, because they've long used it to weld different chunks together they can see how it can be abused as a vehicle to re-unite Germany, plus of course the whole German Confederation issue proves that even if you go Confederation vs Federation you still run the risk of the negative outcome (i.e. reunited Germany).

The FO preferred model might actually be The Raj and the Princely States. The Raj is a good model as it is mix and match and was quite good at maintaing just enough unity to work while also keeping separate identities - even after Indepedence it took decades and a few invasions to get all the Princely States to submit. This is important as the British will want leaders who have a strong motivation to resist a unified Germany as it will cost them personally, whether that is petty Kings or regional parliaments the important thing is to give them power and remind them they will get squished in unification, because that was what happened last time. The Raj approach also provides a good example on the obligation front, the German monarchy will be abolished and very explicitly so, some lower level and regional monarchs are a different thing, perhaps different titles are used. Does it need to be King of Hanover, could it be Soverign Prince or something similar, muddy the waters a bit.

On that note I think the FO will also not be particularly precious about claims and succession, theses little Germanic nations are going to be 'new states' (from some perspectives) so creative options are available and I think they would push for them, it is a bit later but if you can buck the rules to kick Edward VIII out then surely you can be at least as ruthless on a foreign court. Therefore I think the arugment will be that Hannover does not actually need to be ruled by the House of Hannover/Brunswick/whatever, particulary if it keeps the Hohenzollerns out of the picture, which I agree is a priority. I'm not even sure they'd be allowed to retain Duke of Brunswick frankly, the Hohenzollern link while ruling Prussia is just begging for trouble, if they do it is a courtesty title and nothing more. For Hannover once you look elsewhere there are options. As an example The Duke of Cambridge was Regent in Hannover, a descendant from the FitzGeorge line could be fun. Could do a Sweden and draft in a foreign general, obviously my preference is King Haig of Hannover as it would be delightful. To be mildly more seriously Prince Arthur (3rd son of Queen Victoria) is alive, healthy and plausible.

Yes...i can see the British trying this. And getting very frustrated by the French bloodlust and need for revenge making the process harder by giving all Germans an obvious enemy to hate/fear together, plus a horrible demonstration of what would happen if the French part of the Entente got their way, given the probably heavy handedness they'll use in the Rhine Republic.

 

[El Pip]

Is that the one who was governor General of Canada? He has constitutional and governmental experience at least...and soundness. Very important quality.

He was indeed sound and clubbable. At the other end he was good at the 'walk and talk' when in Canada which made a very good impression. He would certainly be a very different sort of monarch than anyone in Germany is used to and from the FO perspective that is a good thing, the more points of difference the better.

Yes...i can see the British trying this. And getting very frustrated by the French bloodlust and need for revenge making the process harder by giving all Germans an obvious enemy to hate/fear together,

Managed well that is a good dynamic, not quite good cop/bad cop but something similar. You are not going to get rid of Franco-German enmity anytime soon and there is no point trying, so why not use it?

"If you don't take this very reasonable proposal for Prince Arthur as monarch then, with much regret, we would have to support the French proposal for a junior scion of the House of Bonaparte to rule you all as an absolute dictator and force your children to be raised as French."

Of course that dynamic could also go disastrously wrong, but as I doubt anyone will be playing the Wilson role and wrecking everything I suspect it will work out.

plus a horrible demonstration of what would happen if the French part of the Entente got their way, given the probably heavy handedness they'll use in the Rhine Republic.

From a very British perspective letting the French ruin the Rhine is probably a good thing. It gives them an outlet for revenge and something to squeeze for reparations, it can also be a good horse trading point as if France gets it way there it will have to conceded elsewhere. Economically wrecking the Rhine valley doesn't damage British interests, indeed it will cripple several major competitors and make things easier for many British industrial firms, and it will leave the wider German market (that Britain did trade with) mostly unmolested and dependent on British imports to replace those goods the Rhine is no longer making.