Vain was actually playing well, imo. The JL failed big on the day where hebel was first run up, playing into the wolves's hand, and Athalcor was banking on distrust for hebel when he decided to shift hunt target. Of course, when you enter tunnel-vision mode, focusing only on your righteous theory, **** happens. Also, just because he outed himself as a wolf, doesn't mean that you have to vote him, you know? Clever opponents may exploit that behavior.
Wow, thanks Reis I appreciate that.
Athalcor and I were in contact, I didn't trust him very much but I had no information to give him and he couldn't learn anything from my being in contact with him. Sure he could assume that no seer would ever contact a wolf, but then what better way for a seer to hide from the wolves than by befriending one of them? It's convoluted but the game
got that convoluted. All I could know is that he wasn't in the JL or the seer - if he was he'd scan me after the first contact.
If you're wondering my purpose in contacting Athalcor was to ask him to utilize ties for vote data. It wouldn't matter if he were a wolf, if he ignored me I put him on my suspects list, if he does what I say I get vote data.
Hebelecan then exposes himself to Athalcor. If you want a witch hunt how about you go after the seer who botched things so badly? Athalcor's best course of action right now is to let Hebelecan get lynched and hunt Najs. But Athalcor decided to raise the stakes:
Athalcor said:
To : Vainglory
Date : 2011-06-16 06:31
Title : WW Lite
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I really have to appreciate your enthusiasm and the effort you put into publishing the theories. Too bad they were a bit wrong. I am a wolf.
I actually played a bit of a hazard in the last 24 hours - I made the actions to look too irrational so I thought they will think that a sane me-wolf would not do that.
I relied on two aces:
The fact that hebel managed to lynch innocent Esemesas and...
you. You and your large accusations and theories.
But the JL was too strong (I thought that hebel won't be able to muster enough support) and so I died.
I am sorry that I exploited you but this is werewolf, so nothing personal. Hopefully in the next game we will be in the same team.
Athalcor thought that no village would believe Hebelecan and so Hebelecan would get lynched. He also thought he could rely on me to support him. He was wrong about everything. Everyone believed Hebelecan, and even I nearly jumped ship as Hebelecan knows from PMs to him.
You guys ought to thank Athalcor, he over-thought it and that won you the game. If he'd let Hebelecan get lynched and hunted Najs there'd be one JL member left who couldn't be sure that Athalcor was a wolf (Hebelecan wouldn't have scanned him) and had no other leads. Instead he let himself get scanned and then his packmate (Enkhuush) voted to save him. Just think about it if Hebelecan had been lynched. Esemesas would have been next for running up Hebelecan.
As I said, go witch hunt Hebelecan. Go back and read the thread: I said Esemesas' theory was wrong when he made it, but then suddenly there's a pile-on for Esemesas. Good move, JL, it's not at all suspicious that the first guy to name a potential pack, and a vote counter, would get voted up suddenly? That made me suspicious of Hebelecan.
Then Hebelecan directed a JL member to make a fake outing of an innocent player to save himself. If Hebelecan flukes hitting a wolf he's fine, but odds are he doesn't - and he didn't. So then Hebelecan is saved by a fake outing and his JL mouthpiece is hunted. Say you're a wolf and your packmate gets run up, why not tap a random villager on the shoulder and give them a fake outing of another player, then hunt the mouthpiece that night. The mouthpiece can't then reveal who duped him, and if he names you prior to that he runs the risk of exposing the real seer. You only save your packmate for one night, although if he then declares himself the true seer Hebelecan style he can survive for
another night while the village pursues another target!
Not only is a fake outing dumb in itself, Hebelecan then compounded it by making it unnecessary: he then outed himself to Athalcor. Athalcor's vote is enough to save Hebelecan if Athalcor is a villager. This makes the fake outing useless and just suspicious for no point - and got his JL member Najs hunted.
Hebelecan then declares himself to be the seer with a story riddled with inconsistencies. I very nearly swapped sides, Hebelecan knew this and never told his JL, had he told his JL they could have picked between "He's a wolf and was just playing a very complicated triple game" or "He's a villager and Hebelecan was unconvincing". He gets my vote and the village could have lynched Enkhuush yesterday instead of it running right down to the wire. Yet again Hebelecan dropped the ball.
Heck even if Hebelecan had just been a bit more open and friendly, I'd have jumped ship. Athalcor was friendly the whole time, Hebelecan was rude. This doesn't indicate anything as to good/bad player. What it does is make it look like Hebelecan isn't sincerely trying to convince people but Athalcor is.
Lastly, Hebelecan showed himself incapable of reasoning. If he'd named his JL member I'd have jumped ship. Let's say he named his JL member and I didn't jump ship - Hebelecan can make that public and I'm going to be lynched for sure. If I do then he could have been reasonably sure I was a villager. There was no risk outing his last JL member because that member can't contact anyone else without the seer. So what if they get hunted there are no cursed/blessed/GA/other packs one villager gone is much like another unless they're inside a functioning JL. One person in a JL is not functioning.
Instead Hebelecan guarantees they'll lynch the last vote counter and last person with any theories, and someone who is trying to make rational choices. I got it wrong on Athalcor and Hebelecan but only because Hebelecan's behavior was not ration for a seer, and Athalcor's was not rational for a wolf. Xeno, EL, and Tai all stepped up to the plate and counted votes and made theories once I was gone which was good to see. My problem really lies with Hebelecan and Split who were foolish and rude in equal measures. The village should thank Athalcor for over thinking it and canceling out Hebelecan's blundering around as a seer.