This was sloppy JL work, I'll admit it. In my defense, I was contacted very late and in a very unorthodox manner. Now, perhaps some wolf has used Elowen to try to sow chaos in the village and she is merely a hapless villager, like myself. It's impossible to know. What does strike me is the fact that they chose to target Dedonus. He is certainly among the more helpful villagers, but did the wolves know that he was in contact with the seer, as he claimed before we, the village, killed him?
I highly doubt the wolves "knew", though he undoubtedly posed a danger to them with his analysis. I don't think it's particularly important - Alynkio, Dedonus, and Alexue know how Justice Leagues work. I highly doubt they leaked that kind of information to anyone behind the screens. And their actions in-game, especially by going after Chieron, probably spoke for themselves.
Another question remains in Alxeu. He reached out to me this morning with some sort of inane question, I thought it might be some kind of fishing attempt to find the seer, but otherwise made no note of it.
Yeah, me too. But it didn't feel that inane - he asked me about Yakman, who send him a PM at the start of the game.
And you know what? Yakman actually did contact me, though the conversation I had with him was brief and can be summarized as "hey, me villager!" to which I replied "hey, me too!"
But in his case it apparently was "hey, I told Chieron I am the seer!" which .. is a tad more relevant, given that it happened right before the wolves ate him.
Okay then, if you say Euro is a legendary beast, I'll be careful. I still like what he did, though; it doesn't benefit scum to place weird votes and then carefreely explain when explainations are requested. There could be WIFOM involved here, but that's a rabbit hole we don't need to go into. Unless he truly is a mastermind at WIFOM or the tell I'm using is too weak (that's possible), he's town.
WIFOM? What does that acronym stand for?
Still think he's town, Marshall?
Right. But the opposite happened yesterday it seems lol... I assume there was a fake outing that generate this, but even considering that, shouldn't we have straight up ignored it instead of lynching a relatively towny guy (who was counting votes quite nicely!)? There certainly is something fishy in this EoD, and I'm gonna try to analyze that.
That would be amusing. In our meta we have this tendency to follow outings unless we have an excruciatingly good reason not to. In hindsight, Euro timed this perfectly. Had he given the village more time to think this through it was not impossible Dedonus' would be able to get his JL claim backed up and steered the lynch away from him.
As it was, the votes won't tell you much. The reactions however .. who knows, but I do note your tells don't have a spectacular track record so far ;-)
You did call Caillean correctly apparently though, I'll give you that.
So you're saying wolves piled on an inactive without really advocating vocally for his lynch? Why would they do such a thing? I don't see the benefit for wolf!Arkasas in voting with Chieron on Agatha, and am not sure I like your thought process, although that may be just because I don't understand it well.
They do that a lot because they can get away with it. Besides, advocating vocally can backfire. After all, if you're so sure, how exactly do you know?
... Ah. WELL THEN. Given the timing here, the most likely scenario assuming wolf!Euro is that wolf!Caillean was about to get lynched and Euro decided to hammer on a strong townie. Else, town!Euro was given fake info by wolf!Elowen:
That seems obvious now, doesn't it?
This means both Caillean and Elowen are still highly suspicious, and how they flip should determine Euro's alignment pretty well: if Elowen flips wolf, Euro is cleared, and if Caillean flips wolf, Euro is most likely wolf as well. I think we should lynch between those two (and perhaps both). That's what we should have done yesterday anyway.
What do you think about Elowen after all this?
And what about the rest of the village?
Seeing how we're dancing on a knife's edge and anyone can die tonight, we should start going over the evidence with a fine comb. I doubt we're going to get much more of it after this, since with two known wolves the third won't hesitate for a second to give them up.
Also, I may be paranoid, but seeing Agatha was town, Alxeu's post about Arkasas could be TMI: he's considering Agatha as town even though there's virtually no reason to do so.
Given Alxeu is apparently Justice League he may have had behind the screens information on Agatha. I guess that explains the hunt on Agatha, but this remark *also* makes *you* more suspicous since you clearly picked up on it while not everyone else may have.
Summary:
Euro will be solved by the lynch of Caillean/Elowen and therefore does not need to be lynched today.
Caillean and Elowen should be lynched for the whole Panzer situation and for the sake of solving Euro.
Alxeu is slightly wolfy, although that may just be paranoia on my end.
Given the information that Caillean is a wolf, how does that change your view?