Werewolf Lite CDXXXIII: Panic at Dynamo Dresden

[Avernite]

You can't monty hall this, since there's lots of factors in it and you have no way of working out the probatility that any person is run up/a goodie/baddie since things aren't random.

It is a really bad idea for the village to have a TIE stand on day 1. Now, you want to have one created to generate information, but you don't want to have it actually stand.


"You hurting a goodie in a tiebreak is indeed a bad sign."
The biggest problem with that statement is that most often both/all people in a day 1 TIE are goodies. Hence it's meaningless. And somebody has to break the TIE. If it becomes the norm that somebody breaking a day 1 TIE is to be run up then nobody will break it and the baddies will heavily benefit unless a baddie is in the TIE, which is really rare.

It is not random, that is the point of Monty Hall. A baddie would always avoid the packmate, only for a goodie is it random.

Mind that also means that the number is relatively low, which is why it only served as the early worst case on day 2, until the fact of ike's evilness was shown. The odds were better than just random by a little bit before that point, by a lot after... But still just odds

 

[jeray2000]

It is not random, that is the point of Monty Hall. A baddie would always avoid the packmate, only for a goodie is it random.

Mind that also means that the number is relatively low, which is why it only served as the early worst case on day 2, until the fact of ike's evilness was shown. The odds were better than just random by a little bit before that point, by a lot after... But still just odds

Avernite is right here. It can be Monty Halled.

 

[Avernite]

On a different note, out of the 6 candidates for lynching on days 1-3, 5 were baddies (Ike 2x), and 3 died. Is that a record?

 

[Arkasas]

On a different note, out of the 6 candidates for lynching on days 1-3, 5 were baddies (Ike 2x), and 3 died. Is that a record?

I would say the game in Lemeard's sig is probably better on that front (though it was only two baddies, they both died in a glorious TIE on day 1... with the seer and a bunch of the other villagers), but this would be pretty dang close. I laughed when we accidentally made a TIE, and laughed harder when it turned out they were both wolves.