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Werewolf Lite CLXIV: Iron Sky - Part II

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randakar's a decent candidate. I wish I hadn't forgotten about him yesterday when we went after marty99/Tornadoli. I'm not sure if I want to risk the game on him though. Those votes against marty yesterday were coming in once an hour like clockwork, with no discussion until Jester made a few comments defending himself.

Every time I try to look at my votecounts with an idea, things just don't seem to add up right. Give me a few hours and I'll try to have something.
 
Yakman said:
randakar may well be a wolf. he's jumped on throwaway votes (days 2,3) and gone for the bandwagon on day 4.
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I am not a wolf.

I've had a busy few days the past week. Especially at the start of this game. I would have voted more if I had the time to analyse this game extensively. Between this, work, and the big game I am quite stretched.

Both on day 2 and 3 I simply voted at the start of the day and never changed it. I read the thread in day 3 but to be entirely honest I wasn't so sure I could trust AOK there. Sure, he claimed to be a goodie and told us to look at the vote cycles, but.. I was still working with the theory there that AOK failed breaking that tie on purpose. I didn't trust him, so wasn't going to change my vote based on what he said.

If we are going to look at anyone here I'd say syber looks very suspicious to me. The defense j-l put up yesterday was just a bit too over the top. Overreacting like that? Ridiculous ..
 
Either the wolves are staring me in the face and I am outsmarting myself by ascribing my level of wolf competence to them, or they have really handled this well.

There are about 4 different scenarios that are entirely plausible here. We needed some luck, but instead we got unlucky with the villager Marty going AWOL. Had he been here, he probably would have joined me against Jonti and things would have gone differently.

Well, I will give everything one last look and make a guess. I am hoping everyone will post their own theories as well.
 
randakar said:
If we are going to look at anyone here I'd say syber looks very suspicious to me. The defense j-l put up yesterday was just a bit too over the top. Overreacting like that? Ridiculous ..
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Regardless of Yakman's accusations and him quitting the game, I don't see a clear case against jacob/Syber. His major votes on Day 2 were against the_hdk and Jester, both of which were credible at the time.

@AOK: I'm having the same trouble. Every time I think I see something, my theory unravels. Maybe I'm just being paranoid at this point, but Yakman's accusations against Jester have got me wary of him. I'm still far more suspicious of Xarkan than either you or Yakman seem to be- he's received only 7 votes (2 from hdk, 1 throwaway from jonti, 1 in desperation from Torn) this whole game, and has only cast 6... one of which was for jonti, but only an hour before deadline with no word on whether Jester or marty would even show up, and jonti was already in the lead. There's not much on randakar to work with, and I don't feel comfortable gambling the whole game on him... but I don't feel comfortable with any of the options I see. I can't decide whether it would be better to go after randakar, Jester, or Xarkan- any of the three could break the game wide open if wolves, but we just can't afford to lynch an innocent at this point.

Vote randakar.
 
unvote Jester180
vote randakar
 
Well, I will vote Rand for now. I will take another look in the morning.

Dublish, if you are a wolf then I congratulate you. If that is the case it is a truly excellent performance. :)

VOTE Rand
 
AOK. 11 said:
Dublish, if you are a wolf then I congratulate you. If that is the case it is a truly excellent performance. :)
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This is the least reassuring post I have ever read. And only three votes have been cast. I'm at a loss.
 
dublish said:
This is the least reassuring post I have ever read. And only three votes have been cast. I'm at a loss.
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Well, I am sorry for that. There is nothing to really differentiate the suspects from each other so there is no analysis worth posting. We need a second wolf to get further, and since we have to concentrate our votes to insure we at least get a decent suspect lynched, Rand is the way to go.

Being that I am not sure, there is not much else I can do. I could make an argument to get everyone still alive lynched. I could make an argument that everyone alive is innocent.

The odds say that Rand is slightly more likely than the others. I am not sure what else you expect me to post. When you combine low activity with no Seer you get situations like this. Its the best I can do.
 
AOK. 11 said:
Well, I will vote Rand for now. I will take another look in the morning.
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Look. Do I have to keep repeating myself here? I am not a wolf. If you lynch me the village dies.
If it really has to come down to this, me having to put up a defense successfully in order for the village to live, we are truly in a bad state. I suck at finding wolves. :(

Looking over the thread, here are my thoughts;

Unlikely wolves:
AOK.11: For obvious reasons. He was the person who got jonti run up. He still could be a wolf and failed the tie on purpose, but if is one then he has put up a bloody good show.

Might be a wolf:
Dublish: Posted a lot of helpful material but I'm not sure it's not a smokescreen. His voting record is far from impeccable.
Yakman: Hasn't casted a lot of votes and seems rather too interested in going after jester. But ..
Jester180: .. does look somewhat suspicious. I will have to trust AOK here that he isn't a wolf.

Likely wolves:
Syber: For the reasons I stated earlier. I don't quite understand why he dropped off the suspect list yesterday. Asking to be subbed out is not getting yourself cleared.
Xarkan: A zombie. He has a grand total of 9 posts in this entire thread. His voting record is a series of throwaways and bandwagons. He might be less likely a wolf than I am in the eyes of mr. epic smugness but frankly voting jonti-h at that particular juncture sounds exactly like what I would do if I were a wolf. Sacrifice a packmate to get instant credibility, then eat the village at leasure.


Vote Xarkan
 
After looking through one more time I think we are doing the right thing. Rand is as good a lynch as any. If he is innocent, then game over. There is nothing more we can do. If anyone has any last minute ideas or theories then now is the time.

I believe Rand is a wolf. Lets hope for the best.
 
Jester180 said:
Vote Randakar

I have a feeling however that tonight may be our last.
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Then what would you suggest we do about that? If people are not satisfied, then we can change course. There is not much to go on, but if there is something specific that makes you uneasy then please explain what it is.
 
AOK. 11 said:
Then what would you suggest we do about that? If people are not satisfied, then we can change course. There is not much to go on, but if there is something specific that makes you uneasy then please explain what it is.
Click to expand...

I think Jester waited a little too long to voice his uneasiness. We only have twenty minutes until deadline, and switching enough people from a 5-1 bandwagon at this point is going to be very difficult.

EDIT: As for an actual change in target, Xarkan seems like the only option. If all three of us change, that'd put Xarkan in the lead by 2 votes. It all comes down to whether we think Xarkan or randakar is a better option. I'm fine with randakar, but I admit Xarkan's been my second option for the last day or two.
 
Five minutes left, so I guess we're not switching. Fair enough.
 
The die is cast.

If this is the last day, congrats to the victors. If not, then we may have a chance at pulling this off. If that is the case, I am likely done for. Regardless, I enjoyed this game despite its frustrations.
 
For he's a jolly dead line, for he's a jolly dead line, for he's a jolly dead liiiiiiiiiine! That no body can deny.
 

Rand -5- Dublish, AOK, Sid, Yak, Jester
Dublish -1- Xarkan
Xarkan -1- Randakar
 
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