Werewolf Lite CCXIV - The Sheep Herd

[Napoleon XIX]

Vote enkhuush

EDIT: placeholder for now, though a somewhat suspicious one.

EDIT AGAIN: we have two days to find the wolf.

 

[Boris ze Spider]

Best case scenario is that if we lynch other people than Napoleon, then the village will win.

Edited: I would like to vote for either Boris or Rendap. But as I'm villager I have to revisit votes and try to make some analysis. For now only Napoleon is clear, other 4 including me is needs to do defense arguments for themselves.

Why would you vote me?

 

[enkhuush]

Why would you vote me?

Then trespoe or Rendav is wolf. In my defense, I have voted Falc and Vainglory. So why should I be wolf?

 

[enkhuush]

I suspect trespoe. Because he only voted for Falc once and other times for sheeps.

Vote trespoe.

 

[enkhuush]

Also even if you suspect too much, please tie me with trespoe. This will help the village.

 

[Athalcor]

Votecount, roughly 6,5 hours to the deadline:


enkhuush -2- : Boris ze Spider, Napoleon XIX

Rendap -1- : trespoe
trespoe -1- : enkhuush

 

[Napoleon XIX]

Right, let me try some analysis. I will include myself, since I know I am not a wolf, but you cannot share my certainty. I am using about the last 10 pages.

Napoleon XIX

Vote OrangeYoshi

Is that a JL announcement?

EDIT: never mind - just re-read first post.

Vote Vainglory

Vote enkhuush

EDIT: placeholder for now, though a somewhat suspicious one.

EDIT AGAIN: we have two days to find the wolf.

An extremely quiet individual, who has not attracted any form of attention, Napoleon XIX would seem to be an ideal wolf candidate.
However, his voting pattern might suggest otherwise, having voted for wolves 2/3 of the time. This might be an elaborate feint on his part, but I do not believe that anyone has taken alibi voting to quite this level.
Overall, I would assign this player a 10% chance of being a wolf.

 

[Napoleon XIX]

Ok, let's have a look.

Enk - Have voted 2 villagers, 1 wolf and 1 unknown. 2 of those lynched. Always been on one of the 3 top targets. Possibly a wolf, but unlikely imo.
Rendap - 2 villagers (1 lynched), 1 wolf (lynched) and 1 unknown. All have been top 2. I am not a wolf.
Napoleon - 2 wolfs, 2 unknown - 2 wolfs lynched. Both unknown was cast fairly early, where the wolfs were later in the day. Possible alibi votes. Medium wolf chance.
Trespoe - 3 villagers (2 lynched) and 1 wolf (lynched). Furthermore, have been voted twice to 1 - one of these by a wolf. One vote throwaway. Medium wolf chance.
Reis - 2 villagers (1 lynched), 1 wolf (lynched) and 1 unknown. Run up once. Last minute vote on Falc could be to prevent a double wolf lynch. Medium-high wolf chance.
Vain - 2 villagers (both lyched), 2 unknown. Run up twice to 3 ending votes on day 1 and 2. No voters were the same. Medium-High wolf chance.
KingeII - Odd ball in - Who did he sub for??? When I count from day 3 I get 14 votes cast, no missed. 3 died and 10 votes+2 missed from day 4. Vain, are you certain that your details are 100% correct in that matter?
Boris - 3 villagers (2 lynched), 1 wolf (lynched) - Snipe Tie vote day 3, but explained and apologized. Can be a clever wolf trick ofc. 1 throwaway vote day 4. Medium-High wolf chance.
OY - 2 villagers, 1 wolf (lynched), 1 missed. 2 votes can be seen as throwaways. Medium-High wolf chance.
Drxav - 2 unknowns, 2 missed (one from Baggy - one by 1 minute). Both votes cast can be seen as throwaways. Medium-High wolf chance.

Ok, I would based on this say that the 3 most likely candidates are Drxav, OY and Boris. Atm OY is voting Drxav and Boris Trespoe. No votes currently on OY/Boris. Let's remedy that:

VOTE OrangeYoshi

OK Vain, Thanks for checking.

We can then add Kinge to the list with the following information:

1 Villager, 1 Unknown, 2 missed. No lynches. But since he's a sub, I don't think that we can get any valid information at this time. If someone else have picked something up on this, please share..

ok, just caught up to this one and my analysis from yesterday aparently STANK! The 1 I had highest are one with no info dead as 2 villagers. And I don't have time to do new analysis. I could just join the bandwagon on Drxav, but am not convinced that he's a wolf after this. Not going to happen at this time.

Therefore I will revert to my analysis from yesterday and

VOTE Boris

This might be seen as a throwaway vote, but it's the best I can do at this point. Going out soon and will not be back before deadline. Hope your analysis are better than mine atm.

/rend

In the first quote, Rendap's analysis appears a bit faulty, given that of the three mentioned two are villagers and the other is unlikely given his actions.
Other than that, as far as I can tell, he has been an unremarkable, quiet player, with a number of throw-away votes.
I may change this once I've had a deeper look, but for now I'd say there is a 20% chance of wolfishness.

 

[Napoleon XIX]

Vote Trespoe,

Davis' day one vote on trespoe might have been an albibi vote

Drxav, there is no seer

Unvote Trespoe, vote Drxav

Is this another tie?

Lol

Vote Drxav, everything screams wolf

I thought we lynched you already

You mixed up Falc with Davis, I tie lynched Davis

If you were his packmate, yes

No no, thats in the other game

Votecount pleaz

Unvote Drxav, vote Vainglory

I suspect Reis will snipe to save someone

Interesting

Unvote Vain, vote Drxav

Sigh, unvote Drxav, vote Rednap

Then there was one, sorry Drxav

Vote Enkhush, voted opposite of the two wolves

But I tie lynched them

I thought that if Drxav was a wolf, Reis must have been too

Why would you vote me?

An interesting one. Was instrumental in the lynching of two wolves. Would he really be prepared to sacrifice two of his own? Perhaps, perhaps not.
On balance, I suspect not: 15% chance of wolfishness.

 

[Napoleon XIX]

Which is why I make placeholder votes in the case I get caught without a chance to come back.

yeeeaaaaahhhh..... the nonvoting way.

Vote drxav

just cuz. He tried to cast his late vote on Falc when it was certain that Falc would die.

And you are on my list of suspects. My vote at that time on Falc meant something. Your non-vote could also mean something. So my vote stays were it is.

actually 2-1-1

enkhuush is voting Vain, and drxav (again) is refusing to vote.

I will break the tie early. I just cannot bring myself to vote the same person in both games.

unvote drxav

vote OY

caught up in both games with 3 minutes to spare...

ummmmm...... whatever. screen resolution is screen resolution. I don't understand.....

Get a bigger monitor. and bigger speakers. They sound louder. The knob goes to 11.

Vote drxav

especially after he tricked me in Big.

This game is separate from other games. No purchase necessary to win. All employees are void from winning, and that includes Jacob. Pay up, deadbeat!

indeed. I did point that out. Combine that with the (non) Falc vote and....

I can take a fairly certain guess as to who the last wolf could be. I am about 75% sure (I haven't percents in more than a year......) drxav is a wolf. I am never 100%, there is always that part of me that believes the other person. That is usually the part AOK tries to exploit.

edit: I pointed out that he wanted Boris dead. He pushed Falc forward without voting him, which has been done by wolves before, most commonly in the last Big I think where someone listed his main suspects and voted someone else.

why hunt Reis? That was a bad hunt.

I was thinking Reis as the other wolf of either Vain or yourself. I knew you AND Vain wouldn't be together, unless y'all were trying for the "let us fight in public" ploy that never seems to work out.

Napoleon has a perfect record. He has voted all three wolves.

Boris gave us Davis

I know I am not a wolf, and I helped bring us Falc.

which leaves us enkhuush and Rendap. They also both voted Falc, but not Davis or Vain. yet they were both early votes on him.

I will go the opposite of Boris.

Vote Rendap

Hmm. Trespoe has only voted for one wolf. From day four:

"Looking at the previous days votes, I would clear Boris and OY, since Orangeyoshi was also involved in putting Davis in his place. Vainglory.... now that we know Najs and Vain aren't in a pack, also helped at a crucial time keeping Davis there before changing votes.

why didn't drxav change his vote? He was online with his comments. and could have voted Najs or Davis at any time. He could have saved Davis or himself. Or doomed Najs to die alone. This is neither a condemnation or a salvation, just, interesting.

Falc is a good choice. But I will look back at what Davis did in the previous days to see what I can find."

This seems suspicious: appears to try to clear Vain and get Drxav lynched.

I'd say a 30% chance.

 

[Napoleon XIX]

For now I'll make a placeholder vote for Vainglory whose defender of Falc.

Vote Vainglory.

By not voting?

From the first day votes, it seems Vainglory is unlikely to be wolf. More to follow, stay tuned. Unvote Vainglory.

Same here.

I suspect drxav. Vote drxav.

Edited: Also we don't have information regarding King aka Tornadoli.

Placeholder vote. Vote drxav. Seriously wolves, by lynching Tornadoli aka King makes analyzing easier.

Any proof?

Edited: Also you and drxav haven't voted yet. May be you two are last remaining wolves?

8 players left means 6 sheep and 2 wolves. Even we don't pick wolf today, we have tomorrow last one chance.

About drxav, he/she tried to vote Falc. But knowing deadline is already past, he/she could tried to act. Then he/she claims he/she thought he/she is lynched yesterday and tried to make colored post which claims that "I'm innocent". But it could be act again, because he/she should know vote count and knowing he/she is safe, tried to convince village again.

So I won't change my vote.

Ehm, you have same case too.

Best case scenario is that if we lynch other people than Napoleon, then the village will win.

Edited: I would like to vote for either Boris or Rendap. But as I'm villager I have to revisit votes and try to make some analysis. For now only Napoleon is clear, other 4 including me is needs to do defense arguments for themselves.

Then trespoe or Rendav is wolf. In my defense, I have voted Falc and Vainglory. So why should I be wolf?

I suspect trespoe. Because he only voted for Falc once and other times for sheeps.

Vote trespoe.

Also even if you suspect too much, please tie me with trespoe. This will help the village.

Well, this messes up my plan to get a total of 100% chance of someone being a wolf. His start at a massive analysis (not quoted for size reasons) is interesting: was it lack of time/inclination or a realisation that it revealed too much. Personally, I suspect the former. Say 20% chance.

Unvote enkhuush
Vote Trespoe

 

[Rendap]

Good Analysis Nape. Having reread most of the thread, I concur that we are either looking at Trespoe or Enkhuus as the last wolf. Voting Enkhuus at this point would open up for an interesting tie me into it, so I really don't see any other option for me than to

VOTE Trespoe

Regarding my vote on Boris, as I was asked. As I stated in the post, I was out of time and had to revert to my old alanysis which was flawed at best. Not a perfect solution, but the best I could do in the 5 minutes I had available for it yesterday.

 

[Athalcor]

Votecount, roughly 8 minutes to the deadline:


trespoe -3- : enkhuush, Napoleon XIX, Rendap

enkhuush -1- : Boris ze Spider
Rendap -1- : trespoe

 

[Athalcor]

You lynched Trespoe the remaining wolf and so:

THE VILLAGE IS VICTORIOUS!

The end. Baaa.

 

[Kingepyon]

psh who needs seers.

Good job village.

 

[drxav]

Yay !!!!

I got you guys. All 3 of you !!

 

[Boris ze Spider]

Yay, I like the new system btw.

 

[trespoe]

The vote on Falc was a mistake in that I expected the village to tie someone with him. And I could vote off him.

The hunts after Malorous were random in that Vain selected a system (I think it was in order on page 1) that would kill the next person. Which is why King was hunted twice. He subbed the wrong person and it was that person's time.

I suck at being a wolf. I hate hunting people and am too loyal to my packmates (mostly)

 

[trespoe]

Your analysis is somewhat skewed. You claim I only voted a wolf once (I also voted Vain early day 1) but so did enkhuush and Rendap, sooo... I am more suspicious than they?

I blame work. I couldn't argue a case or anything. I just came home for lunch 5 minutes before deadline and saw I was dead. I would think if I had been here I could have averted some of this.

 

[Kingepyon]

The vote on Falc was a mistake in that I expected the village to tie someone with him. And I could vote off him.

The hunts after Malorous were random in that Vain selected a system (I think it was in order on page 1) that would kill the next person. Which is why King was hunted twice. He subbed the wrong person and it was that person's time.

I suck at being a wolf. I hate hunting people and am too loyal to my packmates (mostly)

I was wondering about the hunts. No wonder it seemed like the wolves weren't putting thought into it.

Boris should have been hunted the day after he tied falc for the kill, and I should have been left alive to try to get the village to lynch me. Especially the first time when I was protecting vain, if he ever got lynched I would have a huge target on my head.