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Werewolf Lite CCXV - My Little Werewolf: Analysis is Magic

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Uh, why is AOK not being run up alongside these guys?

After yesterday's madness, it seems clear to me that both EURO and AOK are wolves, and I'm pretty sure snoopdogg is as well. Ponies of this world! Unite behind your goddess! We must root out the evil-doers!

VOTE AOK
 
LS, we are killing EURO today and AOK tomorrow. We need a sizeable chunk of votes on EURO to avoid any shenanigans like those that happened last night.
 
I think the plan was simple. I think we're facing a pack with an agenda. This pack has been hunting CAWZ first, then obvious villagers, and I think there's a reason the "vets" are still here. This pack is taking advantage of the habit villages have of only focusing on what veterans do. Each and every game now is about whether or not EUROO or AOK or Kiwi are wolves or not. And I think this pack fully understood that.

I reckon the pack is about 2 or 3 rogues that want to prove a point, guided by a veteran or an older player.

These are the current players:

1: EUROO7
3: Capt. Kiwi
4: Syber_sid
6: Najs
8: drxav
9: tamius
14: snoopdogg
16: XenomorphII
17: Lord Strange
18: enkhuush
19: AOK.11

Four of these are wolves. For the past 2 or 3 days this village has been arguing about AOK and EUROO and I'm afraid this is a waste of time. There's a reason these two are still alive and I'm afraid it isn't what most of people think about. They bring confusion and attract attention, while the wolves are quietly enjoying lynching and hunting villagers.

We've got two days left and I will not vote AOK or EUROO because "AOK or EUROO therefore must be bad". It's silly.

I'd rather have us focus on finding a wolf than lose energy and attention on these two.
 
[4] EUROO7 - Tamius, AOK, enkhuush, Capt. Kiwi
[3] Syber_sid - EURO, Xeno, Snoop
[2] enkhuush - Najs, drxav
[1] AOK. 11 - Lord Strange

moar votes on EURO needed
 
The interesting and curious case of Tamius.


tamius23 said:
I give in.

CAPT. KIWI IS A WOLF
XENOMORPHII IS A WOLF
Click to expand...
tamius23 said:
We'll have to tie them then!
Click to expand...
tamius23 said:
Tamius the villager was hunted
Click to expand...
tamius23 said:
The wolves have missed their chance to hunt me.
Click to expand...
tamius23 said:
What the hell are you on about?

EUROO7 IS A WOLF

Vote EUROO7
Click to expand...
tamius23 said:
My suspicions are confirmed.

THE WOLVES ARE:

EUROO7
snoopdogg
AOK. 11
And one other who I'm not sure of yet.
Click to expand...
tamius23 said:
EURO dies today.
Click to expand...


Ain't that interesting?
 
enkhuush said:
Najs, why do you think me as wolf? Previous explanation was not enough. I think you're suspicious for accusing me as a wolf without reason.

Also why I would be pack with EUR007 and co?
Click to expand...

You are a wolf. It's a fact. The way you are hiding your votes, alternating between throwaways and the frontrunners. Besides, if we apply whatever law it is that drxav is always using we see that you are a wolf. Confess.

Confess, you wicked wolf!

Confess!


Also, you are not a packmate of EURO. EURO is just being silly as usual. He is no wolf.
 
Najs, this is a game without a seer. I can use big red letters as much as I like.

I wouldn't have to use them though if you just hurried up and voted for EURO...

Also to clear up that ting where I thought I'd be hunted last night - I've never been hunted in Lite on any night other than 4.
 
I just find that very interesting that you press us to lynch veterans and veterans only. You're too obsessed. I don't see any analysis, just assumptions in your reasoning.

What happens if we lynch EUROO and he turns out a villager? I think you don't know, because you didn't think this past one lynch.

My point here is: are you just an instrument of randomness or an instrument of a pack?

@Najs: Branigan's law.
 
Najs said:
You are a wolf. It's a fact. The way you are hiding your votes, alternating between throwaways and the frontrunners. Besides, if we apply whatever law it is that drxav is always using we see that you are a wolf. Confess.

Confess, you wicked wolf!

Confess!

Also, you are not a packmate of EURO. EURO is just being silly as usual. He is no wolf.
Click to expand...

Eh really, evidence please?

If thing goes like this, then AOK and co will unvote EUR007 and runner-up will be lynched. About EUR007, AOK and co, they accused wrong person as a wolf and lynched him. In the lite game without seer acting like seer is suspicious.
 
Lord Strange said:
Uh, why is AOK not being run up alongside these guys?

After yesterday's madness, it seems clear to me that both EURO and AOK are wolves, and I'm pretty sure snoopdogg is as well. Ponies of this world! Unite behind your goddess! We must root out the evil-doers!

VOTE AOK
Click to expand...

This post coming out of nowhere on the last day from a previously silent LS is the next best thing to a confession. I don't suppose I could get people on board with switching to the LSwolf?
 
Semi-official Vote Count
3 hours and 15 minutes to deadline​


EUROO7 - 5 - Syber_sid, tamius, AOK, enkhuush, Capt. Kiwi,

Syber_sid - 3 - EUROO7, XenomorphII, snoopdogg,
enkhuush - 2 - Najs, drxav,
AOK - 1 - Lord Strange,



 
Are you guys reading along or skimming through the thread. The only connection between me and Euro/AOK this game is the one several of you are making up in your heads.
Unvote syber. Vote Lord Strange.
That is all.
 
Capt. Kiwi said:
Do explain. I don't want to just string you up, I want to hear you explain yourself. Unlike EURO, whose behaviour has given the village nothing, you have presented arguments (be they genuine or malicious in intent), and I think we can gain something from hearing you explain yourself that we couldn't get from EURO. I want to believe. Give me a reason to.
Click to expand...

There were a number of things about Reis which led me to the conclusion that he was the most likely suspect. The first was the hunts. Reis is many things, but he is not a coward. He does not tend to just off the most active and dangerous players first. Thus, the hunting pattern was fitting with his philosphy. Second, he had received almost no attention whatsoever. Statistically speaking, this makes him a more likely wolf. Wolves are harder to runup quite simply because there are a smaller number of players willing to do so. Especially in a Seerless game, wolves will tend to stay in the shadows.

Thirdly, and most importantly from my perspective, was what looked to me like positioning on his part. When a player knows the outcome of an update in advance (for example, if a wolf knows an innocent is about to be lynched), that player will often show hints of this inside knowledge through their behavior. Reis seemed to me to be positioning himself to look good based on this knowledge. His support of lynching Xeno, when Xeno was not in the top suspects, seemed to be an attempt to avoid taking any blame for the lynching of an innocent while at the same time setting up a possible target for the following day.

Bottom line: based on the hunts, the total lack of attention he had received and thus the statistical likelihood of his being a wolf, and finally what looked to be positioning on his part hinting at him having inside information that only a wolf could know, I concluded that he was the most likely suspect. When I saw EURO was thinking the same thing, I went with it.

Obviously I was wrong. But I don't just pull this shit out of thin air. And I certainly would not do such a thing as a baddie. Again, there were much easier targets if I wanted to save anyone.
 
snoopdogg said:
Who are your top suspects right now? Everyone answer this question please.
Do you not agree with me that LS' post is insanely suspicious?
Click to expand...

I agree. And since we only have one chance left anyway, being that we will never get a wolf at 5-4, I will switch.

UNVOTE EURO
VOTE Lord Strange
 
SOMEone IN THIS thread........IS A WOLF!!! :eek:hmy::blink::D;)
 
It is true that LS calls for lynching AOK and EUROO and votes AOK when everybody votes EUROO. Too much self-confidence?

It'd fit my rogue + veteran theory. Perhaps he's the one pulling all these strings.

UNVOTE ENKUUSH

VOTE LS

Tell us your secret Strange.

I can bet you all that if LS turns out a wolf the next hunt victim is EUROO and then AOK. Classic noob.
 
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