Werewolf CXLI: The Eurovision Song Contest

[Rendap]

Vote RepBentley, everyone else seems to make a fairly convincing argument, which you seem to want buried. I'm just your friendly ordinary villager, but you, my friend, are a wolf.

Care to back up your accusations with some real analysis?

Think we just found the pack mate. Took little to flush em out.

Care to back up your accusations with some real analysis?

I agree with Rendap that Adamus should be looked at either.

PS: Rendap, I find amusing that you consider that my vote on Najs gives me baddie points, when it saved you. Trying to confess anything?

Nope, except that I'm a villager. My point re. baddie point was not made re. the specific vote but towards your voting record in general.

Based on the voting records, I will change my vote from Valhalla into Adamus, as Adamus fits better as a Pack B waffle, and I don't want pack A out of the picture as it could mean parity, with the pack-changing cultists and all.

I see your point regarding this and can also agree a little with you. But you have made 1 flaw in your argument. Cultists can't change.

I'll be eagerly awaiting your analysis...

 

[Rendap]

Oh, and for the record - At this point I consider 1 player and ONLY 1 player cleared:

Me.

I am not a scanner and therefore trust noone!

 

[reis91]

Oh, I've misread the cultist thingy. Unattached cultists are kinda meh, imo. Nevertheless, we still have fairly good chances of parity tomorrow if we don't get a pack B waffle, right?

 

[Rendap]

Oh, I've misread the cultist thingy. Unattached cultists are kinda meh, imo. Nevertheless, we still have fairly good chances of parity tomorrow if we don't get a pack B waffle, right?

Nope. Pack B is red - We need a Blue.....

 

[reis91]

Meh, confused both. I blame tamius, of course. Please replace pack B with A in my previous posts.

 

[Rendap]

Let's take a closer look at Mr. Adamus.

Vote adamus

from Random.org

and it is fitting, given a sort of inter-small country rivalry.

Day 1 - Not much to read from this, even if it is the seer.

vote cliges

Standard Lsst.

Day 1 - Revenge vote, but LSST claimed. Can be valid.

Vote The Split

not voting in a game with this many players is just plain wrong. Should be auto lynched. Ill give the newer players the benefit of a second chance.

Day 2 - Quick to go after Split, who missed a vote.

Whats the vote count?

Vote Rep Bentely as placeholder

Day 3 - Votes Bently fairly late in the day (less than 5 hours before deadline)

Unvote ReprolemicBentlarsic
Vote Citizen

Still Day 3 - Brings Citizen closer to Ese, still not a major concern.

Dude you save yourself. As simple as that.

As euro said "be the change", make a bold move and you will normally be rewarded. Theres lots of newbs to play with

Day 4 - Comment to Ese

Shamless i know but ese is the sort of person to vote on a pack mate to keep his record clean. First on jpr.. maybe but i wouldnt think its a definate. Now Falc however, he knows the ropes, he would allow ese to do this without thinking it was some sort of betrayal or something stupid. So i wonder..

Vote Falc

Day 4 - Votes 7 hour before deadline, at which point Falc is not in danger.

Yup.

Day 5 - Comment to JPR tieing Falc and Pope

Oww Jpr, how your death is going to please me. Treat this as a lesson learned, beyond obvious werewolf is obvious especially when there new.

vote jpr

Day 5 - Again goes for the an target.

I believe that Adamus is Furry, as this is all the posts he has made since the game began. He has been flying below the radar so far and while he has indeed been part of the lynch of Falc, he should know better than only posting this Little and this Little analysis!

His votes have been Throwaway, Easy Target (unknown), Villager, Red Wolf and so far today another easy target (unknown).

Additional comments on this, would be that I yesterday at 21GMT comments on his vote for jpr with a direct question to him, while he has posted in other threads since then. I don't believe that he'd have missed either my comment/quesiton as well as Reis' comments earlier this morning.

I believe he's trying to stay silent in order to faciliate a Blue Win.

VOTE Adamus

 

[jpr123]

Seems like solid reasoning to me:

Vote Adamus

Oww Adamus, how your death is going to please me.

Even if I do end up being lynched hopefully I can take you with me!

 

[Adamus]

Let's take a closer look at Mr. Adamus.



Day 1 - Not much to read from this, even if it is the seer.



Day 1 - Revenge vote, but LSST claimed. Can be valid.



Day 2 - Quick to go after Split, who missed a vote.



Day 3 - Votes Bently fairly late in the day (less than 5 hours before deadline)



Still Day 3 - Brings Citizen closer to Ese, still not a major concern.



Day 4 - Comment to Ese



Day 4 - Votes 7 hour before deadline, at which point Falc is not in danger.



Day 5 - Comment to JPR tieing Falc and Pope



Day 5 - Again goes for the an target.

I believe that Adamus is Furry, as this is all the posts he has made since the game began. He has been flying below the radar so far and while he has indeed been part of the lynch of Falc, he should know better than only posting this Little and this Little analysis!

His votes have been Throwaway, Easy Target (unknown), Villager, Red Wolf and so far today another easy target (unknown).

Additional comments on this, would be that I yesterday at 21GMT comments on his vote for jpr with a direct question to him, while he has posted in other threads since then. I don't believe that he'd have missed either my comment/quesiton as well as Reis' comments earlier this morning.

I believe he's trying to stay silent in order to faciliate a Blue Win.

VOTE Adamus

Wow. You have put a lot of effort into what turned out to be a load of spiel. I clearly am no red wolf... so that makes me a blue wolf for cetain? this is pretty much what you are saying, with some pretty weak arguments.

Sometimes you fly below the radar early game to avoid being hunted. This is just playing smart.

His votes have been Throwaway, Easy Target (unknown), Villager, Red Wolf and so far today another easy target (unknown).

I... i dont know what to say about this... your either a fool or you are trying to manipulate the village into lynching me which is lame, you should let the analysis speak for itself. This sentence is beyond bias. Throwaway.. on a day one! early doors vote! please leave that one where it is. "Easy Target (unknown)" so now from a throwaway im actually voting people that could be lynched and this isnt good enough for you?? to you this is just me picking an "unknown target"... THERE ALL UNKNOWN (unless your a wolf in a pack). Im astounded that we are now debating that someone contributing to their voting record by voting someone they may well be killed should be considered furry. It is in fact the reverse of this notion that people should seeing!

now on to your record... your nameskae didnt vote and you have only voted a red wolf.. so you are pretty much in the same boat as me but actually alot worse becuase you have no record to help the village out. maybe you should be lynched?

Jack's record is the worst here, why cant we lynch him? this is late game after all..

Unvote JPEG MP4
Vote Jack118

VOTE JACK118 NOW!

 

[Rendap]

Good that you have come back with at least some arguments here Adamus.

I agree that you are highly unlikely as a Red wolf. At this point though, we need to consider the worst case and that is that this is a likely Wolf Victory. We are 7 players left and as stated I estimate 2-4 baddies left. That Means if we kill red pack tonight, it's most likely game over.

But so far you have gone for easy targets. You went for Split when he missed the vote and was a serious contender as well as at least initially on jpr today.

And you are also correct that my voting recond, with regards to blues, is just as crappy as everyone elses (that we know of at this point at least). I have voted for 2 wolves and 2 missed on my sheet. If that is enough to get me lynched, I invite you all to run me up and kill a villager.

Is my analysis flawed? It's Possible. I have made a case here, and I believe it to be correct.

I also believe that among You, Valhalla and Jack, there is at least 1 wolf, likely 2 and possible 3. Until we nail a Blue, we have zip to go on!

I will reread the thread once Again and focus on Jack this time. Then I'll decide on changing my vote or not.

 

[reis91]

On a side note, Rendap has claimed to be in touch with the JL, if I am not in error. Since we're at the point where it doesn't matter anymore, if anyone with links to the JL could confirm this information it would be appreciated.

 

[Rendap]

Let's take a look at Jack:

Vote Najs for evil Swedish Oppression of Finland! FINLAND!

Day 1 vote. Kept it there, which turned out to be part of the Doc-Lynch.

Well, at least the werewolves are hunting each-other, on the other hand there are at least three other werewolves still out there, so we're all going to die.

Vote Walrus for being Warwickshire.

Day 2 vote. Also kept it there and ended up lynching the second villager.

"At least three"?

That is quite a remarkable statement, seeing as how Tamius' last big had only one wolf per pack.

Yes, we can hope he changed his mind about that being a good idea, but you still seem to know more than the rest of us...

VOTE JACK118

My reasoning being that denoting that the werewolf killed was part of "Pack A" then there is probably at least one other pack with at least one other person, the fact that he was third in command say there was at least two other werewolves in his pack, making the at least total come to three. It's not inside knowledge, it's just intuition.

I am almost constantly surrounded by invisible smoke, and yet people can see me very well.

Is this his first game or can we go lynch him now?

Ah, I see the flaw in your reasoning.

See, 'Third in command' is not something internal to the pack. Those traits are spread out over all the players.

Typically, you'll find a Leader Villager, then second and third in command in the packs, 4th in command back in the village.

As we can tell from last night's hunt, there is probably a pack B and while pack A got the first hunt, we can assume pack B got the second in command.


UNVOTE JACK

You're getting the newbie benefit of the doubt.

Day 3 Jack makes the statement of "At least 3 Waffles". What I find interesting is that the 2 most vocal at first in getting Jack to the furnace were the 2 Red wolves. Elaborate alibi or 2 wolves looking for an easy target?

Vote Cliges I just got that feel bro.

Unvote Cliges

Still day 3. Votes Cliges and after a number of "Bro and No-Bro" going back and forth, unvotes Again. No valid vote Day 3.

Vote reis

Day 4 vote - No explanation.

Vote RepBentley, everyone else seems to make a fairly convincing argument, which you seem to want buried. I'm just your friendly ordinary villager, but you, my friend, are a wolf.

Think we just found the pack mate. Took little to flush em out.

So you're admitting?

No. Jaypee has contradicted himself, contradiction is a sign of a sooty fiend.

Now you come out and vote me. Giving some poor evidence blah, blah, blah.

My reason for lynching you next turn is that you've been a quiet player until now. The only reason for silence is avoiding notice. My guess is that you or your master were brutal and one of you has become a wolf through a scan. Just my thought.

Day 5 - Votes RepBently and a small interlude comes up from both of them.

So, Not so quiet player, but not really much to go on either. Haven't voted for a known wolf and haven't really been voted before today.

While I would admit both Ese and Falc could have arranged for the third-in-command situation while being packmembers, I really don't think so. Therefore it would have been a bit.. Difficult to take back if both red wolves ended up starting a mob to lynch their packmate, without proper knowledge beforehand from an infiltrated JL or similar. I'll assume that Jack is not Red.

Could he be blue? Yes. Basically, we all can.

Adamus, who do you see as Blue pack, if we assume that there are 2 left? I think I have nailed who the red one is, but I'll keep that back for now at least.

 

[Rendap]

On a side note, Rendap has claimed to be in touch with the JL, if I am not in error. Since we're at the point where it doesn't matter anymore, if anyone with links to the JL could confirm this information it would be appreciated.

Correct, I have so claimed. My Contact was Cliges himself and I have not been informed of any other names although I believed that I had guessed the third member of the JL.

I believe that the third member was Johho.

 

[Adamus]

For blues like you said anyone. But id go for either 2 of reis, jack and valhalla

And reds out of jpr and valhalla.

Its too late now for a switch though.

unvote jack

Vote jpr

 

[Adamus]

Whats the vote count?

 

[Rendap]

It's not too late as I see it. There's still hours to go.

I believe that Valhalla is the last Red pack member. It's only him and Jack that haven't voted for a red and as stated previously I don't seriously consider Jack as Red due to the voting Day 2.

I am unconvinced on Jpr though. I don't think that he'll be our best bet.

I'll go with Jack as well for today. And I won't be around at deadline so if I have to switch it will have to be within the next 30 mins.

 

[Rendap]

Whats the vote count?

Adamus 3
jpr 2
RepB 2

 

[reis91]

Well, if you are the Red wolf, yes, I imagine you have it nailed. Don't worry though, I won't tell anyone

 

[reis91]

For blues like you said anyone. But id go for either 2 of reis, jack and valhalla

And reds out of jpr and valhalla.

Its too late now for a switch though.

unvote jack

Vote jpr

That doesn't make any damn sense. Why Jpr red, for instance?

 

[Adamus]

Ok rendap switch to jack

unvote jaypee
Vote jack

Reis join as well.. if hes not your pack mate that is

 

[Rendap]

UNVOTE Adamus
Vote Jack

Adamus, if you really turn out to be a wolf, well played...