Werewolf Lite CCCXCVI: The Joy of Map Painting

[jeray2000]

At the start of the convo, there's the line from Landy.

"A Landy said:
Welcome Jeremy, you're my Day 1 scan."

I assume he meant night 1? I also assume "Jeremy" is you Jeray. It's not really clear around what time that conversation took place, but I guess it's relatively early due to the conversation.

However, you responded to him afterwards. You acknowledged the fact that he scanned you. How can you say you were not aware he was the inquisitor that day?

I think you're a bit confused on the chronology, so I'll go through the times with you. Saturday 19:35, Page 11, Night 1 happens, and I am scanned. Saturday ~22:05 I look for a good case, decide A Landy was looking sketchy, and vote him. Saturday 22:35 A Landy comes on and greets me/adds me to the PM. I stay on for a couple more hours, not really doing anything. If someone makes a good case I could switch off Landy to, in order to avoid looking suspicious, I would. No one does, I go offline. Sunday 18:08 A Landy begins to pick up heat. Sunday 18:44 Alynkio hopes I'm around in case Landy takes heat, sadly I am not. Sunday 19:30 Landy is lynched.

Without Landy, conversation between Alynkio and me drops off and the PMs are not continued.

 

[SPAMbuca]

I think you're a bit confused on the chronology, so I'll go through the times with you. Saturday 19:35, Page 11, Night 1 happens, and I am scanned. Saturday ~22:05 I look for a good case, decide A Landy was looking sketchy, and vote him. Saturday 22:35 A Landy comes on and greets me/adds me to the PM. I stay on for a couple more hours, not really doing anything. If someone makes a good case I could switch off Landy to, in order to avoid looking suspicious, I would. No one does, I go offline. Sunday 18:08 A Landy begins to pick up heat. Sunday 18:44 Alynkio hopes I'm around in case Landy takes heat, sadly I am not. Sunday 19:30 Landy is lynched.

Without Landy, conversation between Alynkio and me drops off and the PMs are not continued.

I'm not confused on the chronology. You just said you kept your vote on Landy after you found out he was the inquisitor.


I'll look into it deeper tomorrow... I really need sleep.


Also, for the Audren lynch, I think I know the reasoning. Regardless of who the wolf is, the wolf knew I was scanned the day before. Therefore, it would be logical Audren would be scanned next. By killing Audren, the wolf probably thought he could make the inquisitor waste the night. It's a flawed plan though, as it kept 2 confirmed people alive. The inquisitor and his scanned target. It would always be possible to have both suspects lynched by tie. Furthermore, if he directly hunted the inquisitor, we would have had no information on Audren as well and it's very likely he would have been lynched today. Maybe he really was afraid Ramius wasn't the inquisitor. Only rational explanation I can come up with. But if Ramius wasn't the inquisitor, he would have been screwed anyway, due to process of elimination.

 

[SPAMbuca]

Bah, guess I can't resist looking into things now.

An ill-advised one I fear.

Shoulda subbed Übelkeit I guess.

Seems Alynkio knew town hung the inquisitor. This seems to confirm part of Jeray's story at least.

Aedan here makes a case on two players we now know are goodies, one of whom's an inquisitor. He also defends Wagon, who's very possibly a wolf whose packmates pushed onto A Landy to save. Wagonlitz was ahead 3:1 to A Landy, then after Aedan's case Landy went up to five votes until Wagon himself switched to Spocky, then Claude switched to Spocky, which made the 4:4 Landy:Spocky TIE.

I think this is enough to merit a vote.

Vote Aedan

Seems like a reaction to him logging in to see the inquisitor he knew lynched. He's barking up the wrong tree though. Doesn't necessarily have to mean anything.

I... actually agree with pretty much everything here. I'm nearly positive that Wagon and Aedan are packmates, his statement about Wagon in his post just sticks out too much in my mind and it completely swayed the lynch away from the leading Wagonlitz. Wagon has also acted completely out of character this game and I will eat my hat if he isn't a wolf.

And this is a pretty weak defense, as this is pretty much Aedan brushing off any analysis done against him as nothing major, straight up lies about not defending Wagon. His statement about his disbelief that Wagon is in the lead is his way of protecting Wagon and swaying the vote away from him. And it's pretty clear that his voting of Wagon now is backtracking and trying to save face here because Wagon is almost too obvious not to vote right now.


This is the one passage that really bothers me. This is so wishy washy of a stance where he's basically saying that he wasn't opposed to the Wagon lynch but he didn't want to vote him either is pretty blatant wolfish behavior. This is a whole lot of fluff and very little substance if you care to actually look into what he's saying.

However, Aedan can wait for another day. I'm much more convinced of Wagon being a wolf, and Aedan voting Wagon gives me a little pause if nothing else even if I feel this is a packmate realizing Wagon is toast.

Vote Wagonlitz

Seems JM at least had the intention to go after Aedan as well.

Wagon needs to be our number 1 priority today, I guarantee he would be fighting tooth and nail to survive if he were a villager, and he's just flopped over and died right now so please let's get a guaranteed wolf.

This speaks in to the advantage of JM. Strongly favoring Wagon's lynch over Aedan's. Not that it matters if Aedan would be lynched the next day.

Count please.

This is about 40 minutes before deadline. Not clear whether JM was online afterwards. A possible way to read this, is that he was considering it was worth the risk to switch or not. After all, at that moment both Jeray and Audren were voting on Aedan. It's possible he considered it too risky to switch votes already if he could not be active on the deadline. Maybe the other wolves showed no indication of sniping yet.


There is no further interaction between Alynkio and Jeray; something I was initially looking for to see if his story holds up. Nothing can be found, but Alynkio's first message indicates that he knew Landy to be the inquisitor before he died.

Apart from that, it's possible to explain JM's actions from a wolf's point of view. I do feel JM is the more likely wolf now, but I'm not 100% sold and I'm definately not sold whether I want to take the risk in the first place. To me, the tie seems like a foolproof strategy still.

 

[ramius3443]

I've seen enough

UNVOTE JERAY
VOTE JM

 

[Canadian_95_RTS]

Votecount

Jacksonian Missionary: 3

SPAMbuca [445]
Jeray2000 [448]
ramius3443 [443 Jeray2000 -> 464]​

Jeray2000: 1

Jacksonian Missionary [439]​

 

[jeray2000]

I'm not confused on the chronology. You just said you kept your vote on Landy after you found out he was the inquisitor.


I'll look into it deeper tomorrow... I really need sleep.


Also, for the Audren lynch, I think I know the reasoning. Regardless of who the wolf is, the wolf knew I was scanned the day before. Therefore, it would be logical Audren would be scanned next. By killing Audren, the wolf probably thought he could make the inquisitor waste the night. It's a flawed plan though, as it kept 2 confirmed people alive. The inquisitor and his scanned target. It would always be possible to have both suspects lynched by tie. Furthermore, if he directly hunted the inquisitor, we would have had no information on Audren as well and it's very likely he would have been lynched today. Maybe he really was afraid Ramius wasn't the inquisitor. Only rational explanation I can come up with. But if Ramius wasn't the inquisitor, he would have been screwed anyway, due to process of elimination.

The inquisitors don't choose their scan targets, it is random, both whether they get a scan and who is scanned.

 

[ramius3443]

I dont suppose there is a way to just skip the rest of the voting period and end the game early

 

[jeray2000]

I've seen enough

UNVOTE JERAY
VOTE JM

Spam doesn't seem on board with how we decide wins here, so it'd have been nice if you could have sniped this.

I dont suppose there is a way to just skip the rest of the voting period and end the game early

Yes please

 

[ramius3443]

Spam doesn't seem on board with how we decide wins here, so it'd have been nice if you could have sniped this

Given this deadline falls during work hours, I'm not sure you want that; it wouldn't be the first time I'd fail to snipe you out of something

 

[jeray2000]

Given this deadline falls during work hours, I'm not sure you want that; it wouldn't be the first time I'd fail to snipe you out of something

I'm just feeling a bit intense at the moment. This has been a very fun game, I don't want to lose.

 

[Jacksonian Missionary]

I've seen enough

UNVOTE JERAY
VOTE JM

This is madness. Not only are you taking way too risky of a chance here for a village win by consolidating on one candidate when you can guarantee victory for the village is utter stupidity. Not only that, for me to be a wolf it would take a severe amount of incompetence to levels of CaesarCzech, and my actions to this point only point to me being a villager. Everything I've done such as hound Wagon for 2 days (I ask again, why would a wolf do that) and implore his lynch over that of Aedan and not vote switch when I was on until the deadline at the first day of potential parity, just none of it adds up.

As to the PMs, those look very easily made up by Jeray and since he's gone essentially ghost mode he's had plenty of time to prepare them and not look any more shady.

 

[jeray2000]

This is madness. Not only are you taking way too risky of a chance here for a village win by consolidating on one candidate when you can guarantee victory for the village is utter stupidity. Not only that, for me to be a wolf it would take a severe amount of incompetence to levels of CaesarCzech, and my actions to this point only point to me being a villager. Everything I've done such as hound Wagon for 2 days (I ask again, why would a wolf do that) and implore his lynch over that of Aedan and not vote switch when I was on until the deadline at the first day of potential parity, just none of it adds up.

As to the PMs, those look very easily made up by Jeray and since he's gone essentially ghost mode he's had plenty of time to prepare them and not look any more shady.

Your voting for Wagonlitz would be peculiar wolf behaviour, and in most cases would clear you, but I counter-sniped wolves who would win if I just did nothing for one more minute.

Furthermore, claiming I have had time to prepare them goes against your entire thesis of why Audren was hunted- that I was inactive and not bothering to come on for the past several days. I had time to forge PMs that match up with Alynkio's in thread actions but not enough time to type "Hunt Not-Audren"?

 

[ramius3443]

This is madness. Not only are you taking way too risky of a chance here for a village win by consolidating on one candidate when you can guarantee victory for the village is utter stupidity.

While a tie is a laudable idea, it is a coward's way out; I don't like sacrificing packmates needlessly, and I ain't going to toss the villager overboard because its convienent. One of you has either been a mastermind genius who has completely fooled us all or an incompetant fool who should have won already, and if its the former and we lynch wrong then congradulations. If the later then whatever.

Screw optimal play!

 

[SPAMbuca]

The inquisitors don't choose their scan targets, it is random, both whether they get a scan and who is scanned.

From what Ramius showed me, it looks like you can pick your scanned targets. Ramius himself might be best suited to clear that up 100%.

Everything inside me screams to restore the tie. I might do it later, just because a few things don't make sense to me still. I acknowledge the possibility that the pm's were forged, although they appear genuine as I explained earlier.

I also don't quite get JM's reaction. He knows, or should know he has 0 chance of staying alive today. Either he gets voted solo or tied, but he still seems to encourage the tie in which he dies. It would be very douchy at least to attempt a tie at that point. Just to drag a townie down with you.

 

[ramius3443]

From what Ramius showed me, it looks like you can pick your scanned targets. Ramius himself might be best suited to clear that up 100%.

No, it is completely random. 50% chance of nothing, 50% someone random, with no guarantee you havent already scanned that soneone. If I interpret my pm's correctly, its a rgn roll, with players given a number (1-2 yesterday), with as many slots for no scan (so a 3 or a 4 would be no scan).

The fact you were scanned right when people were asking questions is convienent, but I did not direct that. I dont give any orders, the GM just gives me the scan results. I dont actually see anything but the result, so the actual methodology is unknown to me (but my hunch is above).

 

[SPAMbuca]

Alright, good to know.

It was mostly due to the part in which you said:

"Aedan, no result.

Aedan, no result."

 

[ramius3443]

Alright, good to know.

It was mostly due to the part in which you said:

"Aedan, no result.

Aedan, no result."

Ah, I see;

Aedan
No result
Aedan
No result
You

Is 5 different scans. Aedan was scanned first, got a no scan day 2, ect

 

[Jacksonian Missionary]

From what Ramius showed me, it looks like you can pick your scanned targets. Ramius himself might be best suited to clear that up 100%.

Everything inside me screams to restore the tie. I might do it later, just because a few things don't make sense to me still. I acknowledge the possibility that the pm's were forged, although they appear genuine as I explained earlier.

I also don't quite get JM's reaction. He knows, or should know he has 0 chance of staying alive today. Either he gets voted solo or tied, but he still seems to encourage the tie in which he dies. It would be very douchy at least to attempt a tie at that point. Just to drag a townie down with you.

If I were a wolf I would have surrendered by this point because it is a douchy thing to do, but I can't surrender because I'm not a wolf. The fact that I'm being solo voted here again is madness and is terrible play and will result in a village loss where the village has no business losing.

 

[Jacksonian Missionary]

Your voting for Wagonlitz would be peculiar wolf behaviour, and in most cases would clear you, but I counter-sniped wolves who would win if I just did nothing for one more minute.

Furthermore, claiming I have had time to prepare them goes against your entire thesis of why Audren was hunted- that I was inactive and not bothering to come on for the past several days. I had time to forge PMs that match up with Alynkio's in thread actions but not enough time to type "Hunt Not-Audren"?

Yeah I could buy that actually. You being under the cover of being in ghost mode for a few days gives you plenty of time to forge some bullshit PMs. I've seen stuff like that happen before where people work behind the scenes a lot and pretend to not be online.

While a tie is a laudable idea, it is a coward's way out; I don't like sacrificing packmates needlessly, and I ain't going to toss the villager overboard because its convienent. One of you has either been a mastermind genius who has completely fooled us all or an incompetant fool who should have won already, and if its the former and we lynch wrong then congradulations. If the later then whatever.

Screw optimal play!

Then either you're a villager who's skill level is lower than the challenger deep or you'r somehow a wolf who's getting extremely cocky, I imagine it's the former.

 

[SPAMbuca]

Considering no one counter claimed Ramius' inquisitor claim, he can't be a wolf. I'm still on the fence on whether I want to restore the tie or not.

In both cases, I can look very stupid. Either to be a massive asshole in my first game and take away a win from a villager, or be the guy that let a 100% win slip through his fingers. I'll get back to you guys. But in the meantime, keep arguing. Maybe some new information will be brought to light between Jeray and you.