-
We have updated our Community Code of Conduct. Please read through the new rules for the forum that are an integral part of Paradox Interactive’s User Agreement.
Right so I'll take myself and must exclude both Tamius and Jeray for now.
Jackson
Matthew
Wagonlitz
APPROVE
Jackson
Matthew
Wagonlitz
APPROVE
Matthew has been given a card by Tamius, who may (or may not) be a spy, but that connection is too tenuous to be worth serious consideration at the moment. Jackson and Wagon are both complete unknowns.
I will use RNG to decide my vote.
The post number for the proposal is 24778218, whose digits add up to 39, which is odd. Therefore I...
REJECT
...this proposal
I will use RNG to decide my vote.
The post number for the proposal is 24778218, whose digits add up to 39, which is odd. Therefore I...
REJECT
...this proposal
Approve
I'm not going on a team this turn after tamius' foul and cruel character assassination so I might as well approve to move things along.
I'm not going on a team this turn after tamius' foul and cruel character assassination so I might as well approve to move things along.
Not all of them. The fifth has to be accepted or the spies win. Since I have the fifth proposal, I see no reason to approve a suboptimal team (i.e. one that doesn't include myself) when I'm guaranteed to propose a team with someone I know to be resistance eventually if all other teams are rejected.
That is the classic problem with Day 1 teams, if you're resistance you should never approve a team you're not given you're the only person you can trust at all. Spies would want to approve teams with spymates, but given that the resistance knows only spies would approve a team they're not on, spies wouldn't give themselves that easily. So usually teams aren't approved until proposal 5, or actually proposal 4 since usually people are a little cautious and don't want to risk the last day if not necessary.
That's just stupid and it deserves to fail at proposal 5 in such cases as you're deliberately perverting the game just to skin your own animal...
It's the only reasonable strategy. And resistance isn't a game where you're just trying to win for yourself; if you're resistance and vote a team without yourself on it, you are harming your whole team. I think it might be a good idea to limit Day 1 to 3 or 4 proposals to speed things up a bit though.
The logic is that the likelihood that a mission succeeds is much greater if there's a known resistance member (yourself) on it.
If a team contains you, it has a 35.7% chance to be spy-free.
If it does not, there is only a 17.9% chance.
Since proposal 5 may contain you, you can only improve your chances by voting down teams that don't contain you. The paradox is that although sticking to this kind of play improves chances of success from the perspective of each resistance member, it has no effect on the overall probability that the final mission 1 team doesn't contain a spy.
This is why I sometimes use RNG to decide my vote.
If a team contains you, it has a 35.7% chance to be spy-free.
If it does not, there is only a 17.9% chance.
Since proposal 5 may contain you, you can only improve your chances by voting down teams that don't contain you. The paradox is that although sticking to this kind of play improves chances of success from the perspective of each resistance member, it has no effect on the overall probability that the final mission 1 team doesn't contain a spy.
This is why I sometimes use RNG to decide my vote.
Also important to note: The more proposals and votes you get on Day 1, the more info you have to analyze later. You will have 5 times more info to work with day 2 in a game that went to proposal 5 in day 1 than in one that got its proposal 1 approved.
At the same time, if you stick TOO closely to this, the spies will know that the first few proposals and votes mean nothing and so the information gained from them is meaningless. So it is important to approve early proposals every now and then.
Also, Tamius is 100% right that we should vote by PM whenever possible. The spies all want to vote the same way but don't want to be seen as voting in a block. Voting by PM makes sure they don't get enough info to try and confuse us
At the same time, if you stick TOO closely to this, the spies will know that the first few proposals and votes mean nothing and so the information gained from them is meaningless. So it is important to approve early proposals every now and then.
Also, Tamius is 100% right that we should vote by PM whenever possible. The spies all want to vote the same way but don't want to be seen as voting in a block. Voting by PM makes sure they don't get enough info to try and confuse us
Except if the leader is a spy he's gonna propose himself and hence it'll be a fail if approved. That goes for 2nd as well as 5th team.
And if the leader is a villager then no matter which attempt it is there will be a 1/6 likelihood that one of the two others is a spy.
Exactly.
That's not exactly how the maths work out, but I'll spare everyone the long-winded explanation just this once.
Except it is. If you're leader and a goodie then you have the same exact chance of grabbing a baddie as a goodie leader on turn 5. And if the leader is a spy then he's gonna propose a spy no matter whether he's turn 2 or 5.
I was more referring to your figure of 1/6 as 'the probability that one of the two others is a spy'. Assuming you're not on the team (and that the proposer is a resistance member) the actual probability is 57.1%, or 71.4% if you're not counting the scenario where both are spies as an exception (which it is if you're following the wording strictly).