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I'm back! Sort of. I've moved house and everyone survived, however many things are still in boxes or disassembled so there still isn't time for replying to all your comments, discussions and speculation. However in the fullness of time and at the appropriate juncture all these things will occur.

I just felt I should express my delight and pleasure that this humble work is still prompting such erudite discussion.
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"The Butterfly Effect" is an AAR that seems to have a life of its' own. It just kinda does its own thing while waiting for a glorious update to descend from the heavens, accompanied by shining lights and singing angels.
 
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You know, I was thinking about this AAR recently and it occurred to me that I have never encountered a work of fiction with better chapter titles. Sometimes when reading I'll come across a chapter and thing "Now that's a good one". But with Butterfly I get that with every single chapter. It's amazing.
 
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A good history book AAR about proud Albion, Sir @El Pip. Is a miracle as this AAR not dissappear!
 
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Commas are brilliant but this is ever so slightly taking it too far.
Heathen.

General feedback on the Redux update. Italian naval thinking was a funny thing, I can't quite get to the bottom of the chicken-egg thinking but basically they assumed all battles would be in day light at long(ish) ranges. They assumed that Jutland was a reasonable template because you couldn't force the enemy to engage in an unfavourable battle and wouldn't offer battle yourself at unfavourable odds. Hence they never developed a night fighting doctrine and put no effort into radar. With officers promoted on the basis of being good fascists and saying the right thing, this became a reinforcing loop.

And lets not forget Jutland was a strategic victory as it enforced the status quo of the German fleet still being locked up - ‘The German Fleet has assaulted its jailer, but it is still in jail’ and all that. In Italian pre-war planning the status quo was "France can't get into the Eastern Med / Adriatic and reinforce Yugoslavia / Eastern Europe". If the status quo favours you, then it's not a terrible plan to try and maintain it, particularly if you believe the enemy will not co-operate in your plans to win a big victory.

The Battlecruiser squadron did an amazing job, because it was used as Battlecruisers not in the line of battle. Keep them away from enemy battleships and they will smash up 8" treaty cruisers while not breaking a sweat.

I would be careful about paying too much heed* to Sullivan.

*Any
Wise words.
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You are absolutely right. After two Franco-German wars in three generations, and with the lingering certitude a third conflict is coming, Germany is and will continue to be the focus for the Quai d'Orsay (seat of the French Foreign Ministry) and the Rue Saint Dominique (address of France's then War Ministry). Any change there would take a true geopolitical revolution, like the Reich's earnestly seeking an alliance against the Soviets (and the Soviets out-appalling even Nazi Germany), or France turning a hundred percent Nazi and seeking a Pact of Steel, part deux.
This is all true and in part why France neglected to assist Britain in Abyssinia; fear that Germany would strike while France was distracted and ongoing hope that Italy could still be steered back into a Stresa Pact like arrangement to oppose Germany (as there was no Stresa Pact in Butterfly).

The simple fact that is Russian Geopolitics more than anything. The historical need to get a borders as far away from Moscow as possible. This geographic blip known as Poland needing to be adjusted. And Communist ideologies, even more peaceful ones such as Stalinism, still tend to wish to expand the revolution with puppet states, and is something even Stalin, or his successors will desire as well.
Stalin always seemed more of a Russian nationalist than an actual Marxist, certainly his 'developments' of Marxism always tended to justify more power for himself, even when they seemingly contradicted the sacred Manifesto. While he was clearly perfectly happy to use the words and power structure of Communism to keep himself in power and control people, re-gaining the lands of the Tsars always seemed more important than spreading the revolution.

New redux chapter was a true delight, nothing tops naval goodies :)
Excellent, glad you liked it. The tech ones are amongst my favourites, along with the really weird rabbit hole divergences. I do keep wondering if I should just stop doing plot/politics chapters at all...

If I had finished reading this before piecing together my original AAR, that might have been handled significantly differently. As it is, my play since catching up on all of these other AARs--especially @El Pip 's comments on my own AAR--has significantly changed.

I also realize how crazy overpowered Italy is in the base game, and how easy it is to wind up gaming the system.
I've always assumed Paradox's aim was for the game to produce something that looks a lot like WW2, but with the player able to influence it (by varying amounts depending on who they play as). This requires a fair amount of rail-roading and ignoring of options. Plus of course the ongoing requirement for Germany to be able to easily conqueror the world / be a toughish challenge.

On that point I'd always assumed Italy was over-powered to cope with how confused the AI gets by oceans. Italy needs loads of divisions so it can waste a load on random garrisons or obscure bits of East Africa and still maintain a decent force in the places that matter.

'Mussolini takes Berlin' is probably going to be a default part of mt italian strategy every time I play them now.
It is the last thing Hitler would be expecting.

Possible Future European war
Some excellent discussion and speculation from @Sir Charles Dewitt , @TheButterflyComposer and @AtlanticFriend . Which I am not going to comment on for fear of ruining the elaborate future conflict I am building towards, though suffice to say that the issues discussed are all relevant, along with a few others. For instance; Germany has not re-occupied the Rhineland and it is still (mostly) demilitarized, a fact both France and Germany are keenly aware of.

Excellent responses, AF!
Indeed, much wisdom from AF and his fellow grand strategists. :)

If said drug is the aforementioned two pints of beer, I daresay world peace should be safe, as I see the right amount of booze as helping you see things in perspective, beyond incendiary rhetoric and so-called "hard facts".
I am reminded of the Mitchell & Webb sketch The Inebriati - “humanity is better and more noble after very nearly two drinks”.

To borrow from a Fleetwood Mac song:

El Pip, you make airplane engines fun. :cool:
It's a dirty job but someone has to do it. And it's good to know people enjoy it.

I am a "pops up every now and then" reader. At some point I will pop up and comment on the insanity of the T&T world or marvel at your admirable commitment to detail...and then disappear for a while until my next return visit to the Paradox forums (as time allows).
Real life is a harsh mistress, stealing away valuable writing and reading time for it's petty demands like work and family. ;)

Having performed much of the same evolution as you have--though not quite finished with the flat yet--I can sympathize!
This is fourth or fifth moving since start of AAR? 'Tis been a long, long journey :)
A very long journey, when I started this back in 2006 I had just moved to London and was renting a room. I've moved a good few times since then, brought and sold three properties, moved out of London and yet Butterfly still soldiers on. And far more impressively so does the readership and their informed debates.

"The Butterfly Effect" is an AAR that seems to have a life of its' own. It just kinda does its own thing while waiting for a glorious update to descend from the heavens, accompanied by shining lights and singing angels.
The majestic pace and irregular gaps are a feature, to allow time for the readership to bask in the magnificence of the update and absorb it's wisdom without being overwhelmed.
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This is my story and I will be sticking to it.

Radial-engined angels, most probably. ;)
Sleeve-valved radial engined angels.
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I have just been playing around with the new ship designer system on HOI4 egads you could have some fun with that kind of thing in a tech porn update.
I may have to give in and get HOI4 at some point, but I doubt it will be anytime soon. When the midgets are larger and I have more time perhaps, because bits of it sound interesting.

You know, I was thinking about this AAR recently and it occurred to me that I have never encountered a work of fiction with better chapter titles. Sometimes when reading I'll come across a chapter and thing "Now that's a good one". But with Butterfly I get that with every single chapter. It's amazing.
I do put a lot of time into the titles and I always wonder if they are noticed or just skimmed over as people jump to the main content. I am delighted my efforts are appreciated and are worthy of such high praise. :)

A good history book AAR about proud Albion, Sir @El Pip. Is a miracle as this AAR not dissappear!
It has taken a bit longer than I expected. We are currently running at a truly majestic 9.47 real time days per game day, so if I do take this out to the HOI2 end date in 1948 that give a predicted date for publishing the last update of 12th February 2129.

I may have to speed up just a little bit.
 
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Italian naval thinking was a funny thing,

Mm, yes. Certainly.

they assumed all battles would be in day light at long(ish) ranges.

Do you know, the Spanish also thought that? And the French come to think of it...although the Spanish were also at that one too. Wonder when someone's going to bother reading upon 'knife fight ranges' and see all the little Union jacks underneath it.

Excellent, glad you liked it. The tech ones are amongst my favourites, along with the really weird rabbit hole divergences. I do keep wondering if I should just stop doing plot/politics chapters at all...

I suppose if you did then it would turn into an encyclopedia for a universe that doesn't exist. I mean...such things do occur elsewhere but we have to have some context for why the start date was chosen if not for the war. If we never got to it, everyone looks like s bit of a nitwit for ever being afraid of Hitler's sort, given what a wet blanket the fascists have been so far.

It is the last thing Hitler would be expecting.

It works like a flaming charm as well! Every single time. I wonder often what might have gone through the heads of French commanders and troops from the border watching the Germans suddenly get flanked and encircled by super light Italian tanks designed for alpine combat. Never mind that, what on earth would Hitler think as I smash down Berlin with a horse charge and colonial infantry with pre 1914 equipment?

The majestic pace and irregular gaps are a feature, to allow time for the readership to bask in the magnificence of the update and absorb it's wisdom without being overwhelmed.
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I thought it was because, having noticed specultion and theories take up so much interest and viewer comments, cutting out the Middle man and just letting us go on forever was the expedient thing to do.

Speaking of...

Some excellent discussion and speculation from @Sir Charles Dewitt , @TheButterflyComposer and @AtlanticFriend

I'm sure it was. I wish I could remember any of it...:eek:

Back in a minute.

Edit: oh, we were talking about how Germany is fucked no matter what they do. The only thing we're wondering is who they're going to manage to take down with them before Russia kills them.
 
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Edit: oh, we were talking about how Germany is fucked no matter what they do. The only thing we're wondering is who they're going to manage to take down with them before Russia kills them.

Indeed I have just come off a game of Kaiserreich which gave me a personal reminder of the might of an industrialized and mobilized Russia.

The Russians are always going to look a little pathetic with loyalty to the Party (Stalin) being preferred over... Actually having a slight idea what you're doing. But when they get their act together. Well, there's not a whole not that can stop them. Not on the Continent anyway. Or until the bomb comes in. I wonder what the Manhattan Project will be named in this timeline?

Honestly the only way for the Germans to "win" is if the British stay out of the war and absolutely every little thing that could go right does. And even then I think it's mostly a "Can the Reich last until it get's the bomb, and MAD comes into play?" Which given the low priority the Nazi leadership placed on nuclear technology (at least until the end when it didn't matter) is probably going to be a while. Then again with his recent military setbacks maybe having a wunderwaffen ace up his sleeve is looking more appealing to Hitler.

All this of course is if he even survives his war with France.

Pretty big if, all things considered.
 
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Or until the bomb comes in. I wonder what the Manhattan Project will be named in this timeline?

Tube Alloys or something like that. HOI AARs don't like the US for the most part. They either go communist or mental or weird or get back into the Empire again.

Honestly the only way for the Germans to win is if the British stay out of the war and absolutely every little thing that could go right does. And even then I think it's mostly a "Can the Reich last until it get's the bomb?"

No, because they never even really tried to get it in the first place, and they've already lost that fight already by this point in the timeline because they've expelled every scientist who could help them do it. And even if they had the bomb, by the time they made it, tested it and tried to use it, they wouldn't have the planes or fuel to drop them. Unless the Russians were literally banging down Berlin, in which case they'd probably nuke their own capital just because.

So yeah, Germany is screwed. The only way they could have won ww2 is by winning world war 1. And could they have won that one? Well...again, quite a lot would have had to change.

All this of course is if he even survives his war with France.

Hm...well that depends, but I suspect France will not go down easily this time. Not with them genuinely trying to fight and prepare for a German invasion.
 
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The majestic pace and irregular gaps are a feature, to allow time for the readership to bask in the magnificence of the update and absorb it's wisdom without being overwhelmed.
ja_zps42369c2d.gif

I always imagined it as a test to weed out the uncommitted.
 
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Tube Alloys or something like that. HOI AARs don't like the US for the most part. They either go communist or mental or weird or get back into the Empire again.

My mistake I should have specified: "I wonder what the British will call their Manhattan Project?" Since the Americans almost certainly won't have one.
 
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The Butterfly Composer's got me thinking...

What is the US of A, going to do this Timeline? Not much I suspect. Not unless something truly spectacularly out of left field occurs. Like the Kingfish coming to power and going full "It Can't Happen Here!" or the nation going mad and deciding that Communism is the only way to protect the American Dream. Is the Kingfish dead? I know he was assassinated in '35, but that's also our departure point (at least from a narrative standpoint) so, maybe?

Unless either of those or something of similar insanity occurs I suspect the US will just sit in the corner and do absolutely nothing the whole game.

Unless I've missed something, or made an error, always a strong a possibility. What do you guys think?
 
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The Butterfly Composer's got me thinking...

What is the US of A, going to do this Timeline? Not much I suspect. Not unless something truly spectacularly out of left field occurs. Like the Kingfish coming to power and going full "It Can't Happen Here!" or the nation going mad and deciding that Communism is the only way to protect the American Dream. Is the Kingfish dead? I know he was assassinated in '35, but that's also our departure point (at least from a narrative standpoint) so, maybe?

Unless either of those or something of similar insanity occurs I suspect the US will just sit in the corner and do absolutely nothing the whole game.

Unless I've missed something, or made an error, always a strong a possibility. What do you guys think?

What are they going to do? Well, I would first say that I and a few others have spent many walls of text discussing this before and haven't really gotten anywhere. Aside from:

They have to recover from the Depression.
They have to figure out a way round Imperial Preference whilst still being isolationist.
They either stay isolationist or become a little bit interactive, perhaps because of Japan's continued aggression in China or the afore-mentioned Imperial Preference.
They have already began isolating Japan from their fuel market, but that may or may not continue depending on internal politics.

What I think will actual happen greatly depends on outside countries to be honest. If France falls? America will support the Brits with supplies and weapons. If Japan follows their ridiculous plan like in OTL? America will crush them. Will the US get involved in WW2 when it breaks out? That depends on France really. That and if Japan attacks the US and Germany feels the need to declare war on them too (in OTL this was because the US was already basically at war with Germany, since they were literally rearming the entire British Isles for their enemies). I suspect that this would be the case in this timeline as well, especially if France fell. If they don't, then America will probably leave the colonial powers to it, at least for now, and focus on internal stuff and Japan. It took quite a bit of effort from British, German and Japanese influence to get them into the war, including massive surprise attacks from the latter.

My mistake I should have specified: "I wonder what the British will call their Manhattan Project?" Since the Americans almost certainly won't have one.

Er...Tube Alloys, since that's what we called our nuclear program at the time. Unless there is some reason to change it?
 
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Er...Tube Alloys, since that's what we called our nuclear program at the time. Unless there is some reason to change it?

Ah, a fool am I. I thought the "joke" was that America wouldn't have the resources/will to have Manhattan project. Not that the name of the British Nuclear program was "Tube Alloys"...

Doesn't have the same ring to it does it?
 
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Ah, a fool am I. I thought the "joke" was that America wouldn't have the resources/will to have Manhattan project. Not that the name of the British Nuclear program was "Tube Alloys"...

Doesn't have the same ring to it does it?

Not really but then again, very none descriptive compared to the amercians. As you might expect.
 
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Not really but then again, very none descriptive compared to the amercians. As you might expect.

From the people who named one of the deadliest and most terrifying weapons of the 20th century after a water container I expect nothing less.
 
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Chapter XLI: Return to the Bear Pit...
(snip)

Following one of @El Pip 's recent reduxes, I started re-reading this AAR from the beginning. I was up to the cited chapter 61 on page 34 when a thought struck me.

As a teenager I read the complete works of Shakespeare, Plato, assorted poets, all available volumes of the Cambridge Ancient History, and pretty much anything else I could lay my hands on - there being sod all else to do with spare time in the 1970s outback. By the time you finish such classics, they're so brilliant and it's taken so long (years) you can just about start again from the beginning with a fresh mind and appetite (not something I could say of my sister's choices: Mills and Boon).

Thus El Pip's modern classic indelibly associates itself in my mind with those of his older though still fashionable predecessors...:)
 
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Hmm. Makes me want to read this all over again.
 
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Hmm. Makes me want to read this all over again.

I've done it a few times since I first started reading the forums. It's practically a summer ritual for me at this point.
 
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I've done it a few times since I first started reading the forums. It's practically a summer ritual for me at this point.

Ditto for me as well. In fact, I'm tempted to start another re-read now. Maybe I'll be back up to the present before the next update drops.
 
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