1: What are the likely triggers for the war, and when will they occur? There certainly isn't going to be any Munich Conference type situation. But will Hitler push for war over the Sudetenland or bide his time 'till... when? '39? '40? Later? What's the smart move in this situation? And what's the likely move in this situation? Given that this is Hitler's Reich and the tail end of the 3rd Republic "optimal" and "probable" are likely not the same.
'Smart' as you say, is relative. The smartest thing Germany could have done with the full benefit of hindsight is difficult to decide so at the time, with less information to go on, I doubt we could get something optimal. However...okay, so Germany at this time is resource starved. Surrounded by enemies. And explicitly under threat of Soviet attack at some point in the future, probably in a decade or so at the soonest, but possibly much later.
What do they need? Well, they need to eventually defeat the Soviet Union before it is ready to attack them, which basically means the rampant militarisation that is straining Germany's recovering economy and limited resources needs to increase, not diminish. So to fight Russia, they need more resources, industry, people, everything really. Some of this they get through Axis members and some, the majority in fact, is going to have to come through conquest. Since the goal is infrastructure and resources, these wars need to be quick and relatively damage free. That means either weak targets or striking quickly and unexpectedly on strong targets all at once.
As I see it, the Germans have only one real option, which is to try to strengthen the axis as much as possible in the Balkans and then take out czechslovakia and Yugoslavia at the same time, then swing round and take out France and whatever other western countries it feels like taking (none of them can stand up to Germany without the French army).
I say they have only one option because any other idea will lead to this campaign as well, just with the enemy prepared/at least given time to prepare.and Germany's own troops potentially out of place. The only other real option is to go after Poland first, but this requires a) the French and British to do nothing and b) a fairly solid agreement with the soviets unless you want to go to war with them immediately after annexing poland. However if they could get Poland in an otl move then do the French campaign, that might be better. I'm unsure.
2. What are the likely moves by either side once a war occurs. (Eastern Europe has jumped up in importance for France but are they really going to abandon Maginot and push forward to support their allies? I think not. And I have heard almost nothing about what the Germans are thinking about defeating France) Again I'm looking for opinions on what would be the "best" moves with our forbidden future knowledge. And what moves the belligerents on the ground with their incomplete data and psychological quirks are likely to make.
With our forbidden knowledge we know that any war plan Germany needs to defeat France with is going to be unbelievable in its risk, daring and gambling on French and their allies making many wrong decisions one after the other. The way they took France in OTL...probably won't happen in this AAR. Unless they are incredibly lucky or they seriously take over most of French intelligence and create some false orders or something. Likewise, France
should, with our future knowledge, probably just it behind it's amazing defences, otoect Belgium and its own borders and just watch the Axis starve themselves to death. Damn the Czechs and perhaps support the Yugoslavia s a little, if Greece can be convinced to enter or Italy really bungles the invasion.
3. What are the likely results of the above? If Germany can't manage to defeat France immediately, how long can they hold? Can the Germans replicate their OTL success by pushing through the Ardennes? If not, what hope have they of emerging victorious? Will the Eastern Entente have a chance to hold the line? Or, perhaps more likely, will they be able to resist to the point that the Germans don't have the resources in the west to finish the job?
If Germany can't defeat France quickly, they're doomed. There is nothing stopping Russia from declaring war and swamping them with troops, Germany doesn't have the fuel or food to sustain a long ground war in Europe against the Empires and though they might see success elsewhere, the Balkans and Eastern Europe for a time, they won't win the war. In fact, if this situation arises, I would imagine a coup attempt at least from the army to try and get Hitler ousted.
4. What are the repercussions on the world stage? Britain isn't going to jump in automatically, but will they stand idly by the entire time? Particularly if things start going poorly for the Entente? Will the Soviets quietly build up and hope the war doesn't cross their borders? Or will they take the opportunity to seize some Polish territory? Or a third option? (And as above, I'm interested in hearing what you think is the optimal, and probable scenarios for the various participants).
It's hard to say, because it depends on how well the French do..,and what the Russians do. If Germany takes Poland and seemingly with Russian aid, before declaring war on most of Europe and steamrolls I think flat, I imagine GB will do
something. If Germany bungles the invasion of France and a stalemate occurs, there is littlest reason to get involved, aside from maybe dissuading Russia from getting involved.
Idk, from how I see and understand things, eventually Germany and France will go toe to toe in a game of luck and skill that will either see Germany win very quickly or slowly lose over the course of a few years.
