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Werewolf CCXLIII: Councilism

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deathbywombat said:
@Wagonlitz Is post #398 an actual outing or not?
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When I out I make it clear to state that somebody is a baddie and also what type of baddie it is. (Unless there's something specific mandating me not to mention the type, but will always mention it's a baddie.)

Here on the other hand I just said that Claude is a confirmed liar, which he is as seen by the posts aedan quoted.
He claimed aedan didn't mention Capi, whihc was false, and claimed that aedan's post was super long, which was false too.
 
This on the other hand just is me trying to steer the village onto a liar.
 
Maybe Claude was referring to this post? Aedan does mention Capi here but it is a pretty long post and Claude might have simply missed it.

aedan777 said:
I'm suspicious of why Panzer suddenly got run up at the end yesterday. He went from no votes to getting lynched, on the basis of him not having voted yet. It's day 1, sure, but as Alynkio noted Panzer's known to be more likely to be unengaged as a goodie than a baddie, something that was ultimately borne out this time. If this had been a more drawn out process over the day, I'd write it off as day 1 nonsense, but this all happened in the twenty five minutes until deadline. More importantly, aside from Deathbywombat's agreement that panzer's activity was more likely to indicate him as a villager and his subsequent vote switch to a throwaway on Arkasas.

With the list of candidates being fairly large yesterday, I think there's a decent chance someone saw a chance to protect a packmate in danger by pushing up Panzer. The logic to switch to him was weak, Matthew had also not yet voted and was starting to go up as a result, but then Deathbywombat asked why single out him and then Panzer was the CAWZ candidate (ignoring the fact that CAWZ on day 1 is stupid). Aside from the Panzer voters, I'm a little suspicious of Deathbywombat being active near deadline and setting these events in motion, agreeing with Alynkio that inactive Panzer would be more likely to be villager Panzer, then trying to make Arkasas a candidate from next to nothing, with about 12 minutes to deadline. He said he'd break the tie if it stood at deadline, but Latinkaiser broke it instead. I don't know how close to deadline Latin's snipe was, so maybe he did it with enough time that Deathbywombat saw and so didn't snipe. Also Arkasas did turn out to be a baddie, so Beathbywombat's somewhat unlikely to be from his pack.

Of the Panzer voters, Latin's probably the least suspicious in my book, unless Marco ends up flipping pack aligned baddie. Breaking a tie day 1 is generally better for the village, and a baddie sniping to lynch someone who is probably a villager is risky day 1. Especially someone who was not posting up to deadline and could plausibly claim to have been offline and let the tie stand.

Euro as always is difficult to determine when he's being obtuse as a villager and when he's being obtuse as a wolf. But of the others, Capibara stands out the most initially, since he's the one who pushed Panzer into a tie for the lead with Marco. That close to deadline I'm not sure making a tie between two pretty weak candidates helps the village, inevitably someone will vote to break it and probably lynch a villager. I'll also note that Capibara could have instead put Claude into a tie with Marco instead, but chose Panzer. He gave no reasoning as to why he choose Panzer.

However it's Spockyt that I think is the actual most suspicious from yesterday. His vote on Panzer was the second, a crucial bit of momentum to allow the possibility of Panzer becoming the CAWZ candidate rather than Matthew. Also while third voters are often cited as the most notable and associated with baddies, this is known. Putting up a third, or in yesterday's situation a fourth, vote on a candidate would have put Spockyt under suspicion if the person he voted was lynched. And more importantly he was absent from that post until deadline, then popped up two minutes after the day 1 results to belatedly say Arkasas was a good candidate. This smacks to me of a baddie wanting to avoid deadline attention, but still wants to get cheap villager points with idle comments after it's over. More likely to be wolfish than villagerish in my book.

Vote Spockyt
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liefwarrior said:
I feel like we're likely to find a wolf or two involved in those last minute shenanigans, so let's take a look at who switched onto our innocent villager.

1. Audren
The obvious rationale behind this vote is self-preservation. Nothing super suspicious in their history either, so not much to go off here. Possibly connected to Culann or Yakman, who both put early votes down but moved off at the first opportunity on Day 1. The least suspicious of the switchers.

2. TheFatWombat
This switch doesn't make sense to me coming from a villager, but nor does it make sense coming from a villager. First of all, the vote is completely impractical, and its only possible purpose is reputation. As a villager, you don't have any idea if Capibara is a wolf or not, so no purpose voting here. A wolf looking at it would know that Capibara wasn't part of at least one pack, halving the chance that they are a wolf, and so wouldn't vote because of the ill repute one gains from jumping on a villager-destined bandwagon at the last moment. I'm currently putting the logic of this vote as a villager at 0%, and its logic as a wolf (for the pure confusion factor) at 2%, so leaning more bad than good, but not enough for a conviction.

3. Aeden
My favourite candidate from this trio, offering absolutely no reasoning for their vote and pushing our innocent council-member into the hot seat. Probably not enough to get them lynched, but still, time to turn up the heat and see if we can smoke out a confession or two.

vote Aeden
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the_hdk said:
Still I think Wombat makes more sense to run based on yesterday.

vote TheFatWombat
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I feel like it's important to note that I'm quite slow at writing my posts and the last few minutes of yesterday were an absolute mess so I actually did just think that it may actually be necessary to try and prevent a TIE.

Wagons post which is formated kind of like an outing but not actually one is kind of weird, but straight up lying is still worth lynching and the Yak vote maybe was a bit childish and low value so:

Unvote Yakman
Vote ClaudeLC
 
Votecount, 4 minutes to deadline:

Avernite - 5: Dedonus [354], Spockyt [372], Audren[375], MatthewFW190 [376], johho [378]

Claude LC - 4: aedan [Alynkio 356 -> 386], Wagonlitz [aedan 381 -> Avernite 391 -> 397], beartjah [De Chat 399 -> 400], TheFatWombat [Yakman 351 ->407]

aedan777 - 3: deathbywombat [352], liefwarrior [353], Claude LC [374]

Dedonus - 3: Culann [357], Sleepyhead [360], MarcoRossolini [364]

Yvanoff - 3: Alynkio [361], Avernite [Claude LC 342 -> Alynkio 359 -> 371], R.Graymarch [382]

MatthewFW190 - 1: Yakman [338]

TheFatWombat - 1: the_hdk [358]

MarcoRossolini - 1: Witch Agatha [366]

De Chatillon - 1: LatinKaiser [aedan 383 -> 396]

Not Voted - 2: @De Chatillôn, @Yvanoff
 
deathbywombat said:
Maybe Claude was referring to this post? Aedan does mention Capi here but it is a pretty long post and Claude might have simply missed it.
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Thats the post.
And how on Earth is that a long post? It's not even a full screen.
 
Unvote De Chat
Vote Claude
 
unvote avernite
vote claude
 
Well if I die:

Yvanoff is implicated in shenanigans to do with scan results. He is not actually scanned baddie, but he looks dodgy. This is PM info so I guess my vote may've looked lazy as a result.

Still, life is life. Or maybe it isn't, can't be sure yet.

UNvote Yvanoff, Vote Claude LC
 
Unvote Claude
Vote Avernite
 
Deadline.
 
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