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In defence of Beartjah, he did ask for a sub, so a lack of activity is hardly a surprise.
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I wanted to highlight this post for a couple reasons.
There's an element of truth to the first part. Effective village play is annoyingly difficult. Werewolf is a game of information. Without information on a particular pack, it is rather difficult to play effectively - you're essentially searching for people that look suspicious without solid evidence to back those suspicions up. Once we actually find a wolf/baddie, it's much easier to make connections and pull packs apart - hence the reason for the existence of a seer/priest to make those first couple of connections.
It should be noted that one of the ways to increase village efficiency is to encourage a lot of talking in an effort to tease out connections. A couple sites have metas, so to speak, that involve hundreds of posts per day and frenetic activity. Paradox WW is slower, for good and for ill - it makes for a calmer game where people don't hate each other as much, but it allows for people to simply slip under the radar.
Your second paragraph hurts a bit, but there is actually a point "to making reads." Specifically, I'm trying to reduce the odds of hitting a villager by isolating people I think are acting as villagers, and removing them from the pool of possible lynches (mostly by telling people not to lynch those people). It's not perfect - I'm not infallible, and get a couple of my reads wrong (see MAWofDoom last game). But I like to think my reads are generally better than average.
For example, I think wagon is a more likely villager than otherwise, because he is making reads on people and pursuing them, rather than glomming onto other cases. Accordingly, I think he's a bad lynch. I think there's about 3 or 4 other people that fit in this category for me. We have 20 players remaining; with a typical setup, only 5 or 6 baddies remain, which means we have 14-15 innocents running around. If we can isolate 4-5 people who are very likely innocents and make sure they don't get lynched, the odds of hitting a baddie rise.
Which, incidentally, is the reason I stopped voting you last round. Frustration tends to be a villager tell, in my experience (of course, it can be faked, and I'll look askance on anyone else who uses it now that it's been called out. To a lesser extent, it's why I am a touch less suspicious of liefwarrior as well than some others. We had a player called Hazbot a few years back - nice guy, but who would go off on hilarious rants whenever he was falsely accused as a villager. Something similar applies here.
Inclined to agree with Wagon here. Yakman's reasoning was literally voting the players who voted the_hdk (see post below). Even discounting the tenuous nature of that kind of logic in the first place, my vote was a last-second snipe onto hdk (I literally put in the post "anti-snipe.") Not giving a concrete reason aside from following Yakman is lazy stuff, and I expect better from you.
Add that to the fact that votes were really quick to pile up on villager Capi on Day 2 while you were in the running, and I think there's very legitimate grounds for suspicion of you.
Vote Audren
Ok. 20 players remain. A bunch of them are more or less nulls that haven't received a lot of voting attention/really been in danger at any point this game - I'll highlight them in blue:
3. aedan777
5. MatthewFW190
6. Culann
7. LatinKaiser as Rosa Luxembourg
9. De Chatillôn as Buenaventura Durruti
10. Sleepyhead as a Straussian Progressive
12. Liefwarrior as Aris Velouchiotis
13. Wagonlitz
14. Audren as Glorfindel, the forgotten Councillor of Elrond
15. Alynkio
16. Avernite as the certificate salesman
17. Witch Agatha
19. R.Graymarch
20. Beartjah
22. Johho as Pippi Långstrump
23. MarcoRossolini
25. Spockyt
26. TheFatWombat as Pjotr Kropotkin
27. deathbywombat as an autonomous collective (of wombats)
28. Yakman
Is there anybody on this list in blue that should be getting more attention that inexplicably isn't?
3. aedan777
5. MatthewFW190
6. Culann
7. LatinKaiser as Rosa Luxembourg
9. De Chatillôn as Buenaventura Durruti
10. Sleepyhead as a Straussian Progressive
12. Liefwarrior as Aris Velouchiotis
13. Wagonlitz
14. Audren as Glorfindel, the forgotten Councillor of Elrond
15. Alynkio
16. Avernite as the certificate salesman
17. Witch Agatha
19. R.Graymarch
20. Beartjah
22. Johho as Pippi Långstrump
23. MarcoRossolini
25. Spockyt
26. TheFatWombat as Pjotr Kropotkin
27. deathbywombat as an autonomous collective (of wombats)
28. Yakman
Is there anybody on this list in blue that should be getting more attention that inexplicably isn't?
Still somewhat suspicious of Sleepyhead, and the hunt on Dedonus (revealing him to be a villager) only adds to it. But starting council members are probably more likely to be goodies (though I suspect there's a starting baddie in each of the seer and priest councils) so I'll let that lie, see if anything comes of this planning meeting between councils.
For other candidates I'll highlight someone I previously voted but didn't get any traction. Spockyt. Day 2 I tried to vote him for his part in the switch to Panzer at the end of the day and his idle commentary post deadline. He's basically continued with the idle commentary and under the radar votes that first got my attention too.
More importantly, no one followed me on my vote on Spockyt day 2. It was a pretty long post that ended with a vote from me, usually that's enough to get at least a couple lazy players to go "Aedan's made a case, I'd be safe following it," at least if I haven't killed a villager recently. Often wolves are involved with this lazy voting. I think the lack of willingness to follow me there might suggest they had other reasons to not want to vote Spockyt. Now this would only provide an explanation for a small set of players, not even all baddies, but I view this as a contributing piece of evidence.
So in regards to @deathbywombat's list of under the radar players, I'd say Spockyt's my pick for most inexplicably lacking attention.
Vote Spockyt
For other candidates I'll highlight someone I previously voted but didn't get any traction. Spockyt. Day 2 I tried to vote him for his part in the switch to Panzer at the end of the day and his idle commentary post deadline. He's basically continued with the idle commentary and under the radar votes that first got my attention too.
More importantly, no one followed me on my vote on Spockyt day 2. It was a pretty long post that ended with a vote from me, usually that's enough to get at least a couple lazy players to go "Aedan's made a case, I'd be safe following it," at least if I haven't killed a villager recently. Often wolves are involved with this lazy voting. I think the lack of willingness to follow me there might suggest they had other reasons to not want to vote Spockyt. Now this would only provide an explanation for a small set of players, not even all baddies, but I view this as a contributing piece of evidence.
So in regards to @deathbywombat's list of under the radar players, I'd say Spockyt's my pick for most inexplicably lacking attention.
Vote Spockyt
Five on the priest council, meaning there are four who can tell if I’m lying.
@Seers, I ain’t got all day, get your shit together and reach out.
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Holy crap that council is huge. If the seer council and guardian council is similarly large then most players in the game should be in councils.
True, but he did receive some attention day 1. My post was specifically referring to people who hadn't yet faced pressure. Although pressure did melt off him quick (admittedly, my fault there in part)
Can't really say that the votes on me are unjustified with the way I've been going through this game...
While can get behind the first part(the continuation of the day 2 case), I'm finding the second part of this reasoning rather weird.
Audren: Just to make sure I've got things right(correct me if I'm wrong here), Audren agreed with yakman on his list of people suspicious for voting hdk yesterday. He then says that he considers DBW the most suspicious of that list, but votes for Johho to 'spread the vote" at a time when yakman's vote on DBW was the only vote that was cast. If I'm not mistaken the pressure on Audren is coming because of this "spreading the vote" and "not voting for the most suspicious person" part of the post.
As far as I can tell there's three options:
1. Audren is telling the truth about wanting to spread the vote. This wouldn't give us all that much information about his wolfishness per se. Of course the case itself is still pretty terrible on its own, and I would be expecting an experienced player like Audren to know that this isn't really much of a case at all.
2. Audren is trying to spread to vote in order to push more attention unto bad cases as a distraction or to simply dump his vote to lay low. However, both of those goals could've been far better served by going for a remotely plausible case instead. Laziness is of course still an option, hoping nobody would notice.
3. Audren is pushing for Johho because he has some particular reason to not be killing DBW. But in that case I'm not sure why he's even mentioning that he considers DBW the most suspicious, especially since he isn't giving any reasons for it. For it to be a baddie tell it would also implictly assume that DBW and Audren are packmates as far as I can tell, since that would be the only reason a baddie Audren would have to avoid voting DBW? Tbh I'm not sure this is a very likely scenario, too many assumptions that nobody really made any arguments for them to be likely.
That said, this does raise the question:
@Audren, why do you consider DBW to be more suspicious than the others in the list that yakman had?
Another note on Audren is that he got bailed out by the day 2 chaos the killed capibara.
I believe that option three is not what we're looking at here(really only leaving it in becuase it lead to a question).
Between the rest the laziness explanation of dumping a vote seems the most likely, the other options have various reasons to at least make them less likely.
VOTE AUDREN
A quick look at Johho does seem to come up that about hald his posts are talking about how the councils work rather than in game analysis, adn the analysis he did give was rather below par compared to what I'm used to from him. He did say he didn't have time though, but it seems a bit interesting that noone really even pointed it out whereas people did notice it for me. (Don't get me wrong here, he probably does have time constraints, but I'm just interested that it never really got any attention). Though with the Audren stuff I'm voting for that already...
If I'm understanding you correctly here the case you're putting here is that nobody followed your earlier case against spockyt? (well, on top of the case that brought on spoky back then on day 2 still being valid)
While can get behind the first part(the continuation of the day 2 case), I'm finding the second part of this reasoning rather weird.
Audren: Just to make sure I've got things right(correct me if I'm wrong here), Audren agreed with yakman on his list of people suspicious for voting hdk yesterday. He then says that he considers DBW the most suspicious of that list, but votes for Johho to 'spread the vote" at a time when yakman's vote on DBW was the only vote that was cast. If I'm not mistaken the pressure on Audren is coming because of this "spreading the vote" and "not voting for the most suspicious person" part of the post.
As far as I can tell there's three options:
1. Audren is telling the truth about wanting to spread the vote. This wouldn't give us all that much information about his wolfishness per se. Of course the case itself is still pretty terrible on its own, and I would be expecting an experienced player like Audren to know that this isn't really much of a case at all.
2. Audren is trying to spread to vote in order to push more attention unto bad cases as a distraction or to simply dump his vote to lay low. However, both of those goals could've been far better served by going for a remotely plausible case instead. Laziness is of course still an option, hoping nobody would notice.
3. Audren is pushing for Johho because he has some particular reason to not be killing DBW. But in that case I'm not sure why he's even mentioning that he considers DBW the most suspicious, especially since he isn't giving any reasons for it. For it to be a baddie tell it would also implictly assume that DBW and Audren are packmates as far as I can tell, since that would be the only reason a baddie Audren would have to avoid voting DBW? Tbh I'm not sure this is a very likely scenario, too many assumptions that nobody really made any arguments for them to be likely.
That said, this does raise the question:
@Audren, why do you consider DBW to be more suspicious than the others in the list that yakman had?
Another note on Audren is that he got bailed out by the day 2 chaos the killed capibara.
I believe that option three is not what we're looking at here(really only leaving it in becuase it lead to a question).
Between the rest the laziness explanation of dumping a vote seems the most likely, the other options have various reasons to at least make them less likely.
VOTE AUDREN
Can't look at every one of them, but I think it's safe to say that Wagon is not one of the people that should be getting pressure becuase of his role in lynching claude. It pretty much ensures that he isn't a packmat of claude, and when I've had wagon as a packmate he was urging caution, which would make such a push on non-packmate claude a bit too ballsy for baddie wagon I think.
A quick look at Johho does seem to come up that about hald his posts are talking about how the councils work rather than in game analysis, adn the analysis he did give was rather below par compared to what I'm used to from him. He did say he didn't have time though, but it seems a bit interesting that noone really even pointed it out whereas people did notice it for me. (Don't get me wrong here, he probably does have time constraints, but I'm just interested that it never really got any attention). Though with the Audren stuff I'm voting for that already...
Yesterday's rant appears to have sucked the energy out of me. The case on Audren seems compelling, but I think they already have quite a few votes, so I'll push up the alternative candidate: a quasi-zombie.
vote MatthewFW190
vote MatthewFW190
With the deadline approaching shortly I still haven’t been contacted by the seer council and this deadline is really shitty for me IRL (end work/commute) so strong preference for sooner than later.
It’s a no-brainer for any village to coordinate the priest/seer functions and the dread of any baddie. If anyone is advising against the reach out in the seer council conversation, that person cannot be trusted. I advise whoever is a villager on the seer council to contact me ASAP so that we can still get something done today.
It’s a no-brainer for any village to coordinate the priest/seer functions and the dread of any baddie. If anyone is advising against the reach out in the seer council conversation, that person cannot be trusted. I advise whoever is a villager on the seer council to contact me ASAP so that we can still get something done today.
I find Wagon's behaviour somehow wolfish. He's a little off this game, trying to avoid attention and I think that's something wolf Wagon use to do. True that he's not the only one, other players like Mathew or Witch Agatha are even worse. Now that I say that name, definitely Witch Agatha needs some pressure, I dont remember anything useful from him (her?) all game.
Vote Witch Agatha
Vote Witch Agatha
Votecount, 2 hours and 55 minutes to deadline:
Audren - 3: Wagonlitz [530], deathbywombat [544], beartjah [550]
MatthewFW190 - 2: Yakman [deathbywombat 523 -> beartjah 541 -> 551], liefwarrior [552]
Spockyt - 2: aedan [546], Culann [555]
beartjah - 1: Avernite [540]
johho - 1: Audren [529]
Witch Agatha - 1: De Chatillon [556]
Non-voters - 10: @MatthewFW190, @LatinKaiser, @alynkio, @Witch Agatha, @R.Graymarch, johho, MarcoRossolini, TheFatWombat, Sleepyhead, Spockyt
Audren - 3: Wagonlitz [530], deathbywombat [544], beartjah [550]
MatthewFW190 - 2: Yakman [deathbywombat 523 -> beartjah 541 -> 551], liefwarrior [552]
Spockyt - 2: aedan [546], Culann [555]
beartjah - 1: Avernite [540]
johho - 1: Audren [529]
Witch Agatha - 1: De Chatillon [556]
Non-voters - 10: @MatthewFW190, @LatinKaiser, @alynkio, @Witch Agatha, @R.Graymarch, johho, MarcoRossolini, TheFatWombat, Sleepyhead, Spockyt
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I'll address all of your charges in turn. I wasn't thrilled at the idea of immediately piling a second vote onto wombat before any other cases had been heard. A second vote is still a dangerous vote at this stage of the game and I believed other candidates deserved attention too. Spockyt and johho hadn't gotten any attention thus far, so I thought they were also worthy of scrutiny. That is the truth, so option number 1 is the only correct interpretation. Number 3 doesn't even make any sense. As for why I liked wombat the best as a candidate, he has been the most vocal participant while not actually contributing much to getting decisive votes (see his reluctance to go after the vote switch onto Claude). johho and Spockyt, in comparison, haven't down much of anything. That's why I found wombat the most suspicious.
I can give no defense for why other people wanted to kill one villager (Capibara) over another villager (me). You gotta ask them.
In the interests of self-preservation, and since people now are giving attention to Spockyt as another solid candidate
UNVOTE JOHHO
VOTE SPOCKYT
UNVOTE JOHHO
VOTE SPOCKYT