Could the involved parties explain The Yakman-Agatha-JL-Culann connection and why Wagon the wolf had to help out?
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Not sure how Wagonlitz2.0 fits in but awhile back Yakman claimed Agatha was wolf to a seer council member but didn’t out her and wouldn’t back up claim. Still unsure of how he knew even less sure of why he wouldn’t out if he had seerish powers.
I have no connection to this other than fact that I’m on the seer council. I’m in contact with Liefwarrior my only connection to the justice league.
Yakman not wanting to put Agatha when he had the information is odd. If he’s making random accusations that’s bad for the village. Either way worth pursuing.
Vote Yakman
I have no connection to this other than fact that I’m on the seer council. I’m in contact with Liefwarrior my only connection to the justice league.
Yakman not wanting to put Agatha when he had the information is odd. If he’s making random accusations that’s bad for the village. Either way worth pursuing.
Vote Yakman
I'm pissed that I missed this yesterday - was at work so couldn't read carefully Avernite claimed seer scan, which would be an odd thing to claim for an orange to claim, considering De Chatillon also had a used seer scan. If he shared this result/claim to the JL BEFORE De Chat flipped, then he should never have been lynched in the first place.
I think Yakman is a fairly obvious not-wolf - both in terms of not being a wolf AND not being an orange. Why would he go to the trouble of accusing Agatha (an orange) in PM and going hard after Matthew for 3 days (a yellow)? Maybe he's a sorc, but it seems silly for a sorc to be hitting up the PMs accusing random people, both of whom flip baddie.
12 players remain (see for roleclaims.) Let me know if I missed any claims. Note that the no-hunt night possibly complicates matters at bit:
3. aedan777
6. Culann - claims witness. Also claims member of seer council.
7. LatinKaiser
10. Sleepyhead - Spokesman for priest council
12. Liefwarrior - Doublecleared, claims traitless villager, confirmed by priest council
19. R.Graymarch - Seer scanned, came up clean.
22. Johho as Pippi Långstrump
23. MarcoRossolini
25. Spockyt
26. TheFatWombat - claims member of priest council, otherwise traitless
27. deathbywombat - claims traitless villager
28. Yakman - apparently claimed traitless villager to me and a priestly power to Avernite (scanned Witch Agatha). Seer scanned by Avernite.
3. aedan777
6. Culann - claims witness. Also claims member of seer council.
7. LatinKaiser
10. Sleepyhead - Spokesman for priest council
12. Liefwarrior - Doublecleared, claims traitless villager, confirmed by priest council
19. R.Graymarch - Seer scanned, came up clean.
22. Johho as Pippi Långstrump
23. MarcoRossolini
25. Spockyt
26. TheFatWombat - claims member of priest council, otherwise traitless
27. deathbywombat - claims traitless villager
28. Yakman - apparently claimed traitless villager to me and a priestly power to Avernite (scanned Witch Agatha). Seer scanned by Avernite.
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Ok, game state. It's weird because I could conceive of the following game states:
10 starting baddies (5 yellows, 4 oranges, sorcerer, oranges hunt first to compensate for 1 less member.) This is unlikely because why would the weaker pack have a cultist instead of a zealot as well?
11 starting baddies (starting packs of 5 and 5, yellows get an extra zealot instead of a cultist to compensate for hunting second, sorc only)
12 starting baddies (starting packs of 5 and 5, yellows get an extra zealot instead of a cultist to compensate for hunting second, unattached cultist, sorc)
13 starting baddies (starting packs of 6 and 6 baddies respectively, with a sorcerer). We haven't seen a yellow cultist yet, so this setup is terchically possible but would be an absolute balancing nightmare.
I think 11 starting baddies is the most likely scenario. The orange cultist makes 10 very unlikely, and 12 and 13 seem extreme in terms of balancing (over 40% starting baddies in a 2 pack game?) but are technically possible (and would piss me off, but whatever).
8 baddies down, 9 goodies are down. Which means that anywhere from 2-5 starting baddies remain in the game, but probably more like 3 baddies out of 12 - probably 3. There's also the no-hunt night, where the baddies could technically have picked up another member. I think it is 50/50 as to whether they actually did so or not. So we're looking at 3-4 possible baddies remaining out of 12.
In theory, both a doctor AND a padre are still alive this game. In practice, I'm not sure if that is actually true, but at least one of them should be roaming around. We also have a JL, so they should obviously be in contact.
Priest council is still intact (and presumably 5 strong), and we know at least 2 members (sleepy and Fat Wombat).
Seer council lost 4 members - 1 wolf, 3 villagers. One member was inducted into the council to compensate. So 2 members remain - 1 starting, one otherwise. Culann is one of them.
Guardian council - Wondering if this council was also 5 strong at the start - it might be smaller. 2 people died, so 3 should remain if the council had only 5 members.
If these numbers hold, 10 members would still be in councils. I am not one of them.
10 starting baddies (5 yellows, 4 oranges, sorcerer, oranges hunt first to compensate for 1 less member.) This is unlikely because why would the weaker pack have a cultist instead of a zealot as well?
11 starting baddies (starting packs of 5 and 5, yellows get an extra zealot instead of a cultist to compensate for hunting second, sorc only)
12 starting baddies (starting packs of 5 and 5, yellows get an extra zealot instead of a cultist to compensate for hunting second, unattached cultist, sorc)
13 starting baddies (starting packs of 6 and 6 baddies respectively, with a sorcerer). We haven't seen a yellow cultist yet, so this setup is terchically possible but would be an absolute balancing nightmare.
I think 11 starting baddies is the most likely scenario. The orange cultist makes 10 very unlikely, and 12 and 13 seem extreme in terms of balancing (over 40% starting baddies in a 2 pack game?) but are technically possible (and would piss me off, but whatever).
8 baddies down, 9 goodies are down. Which means that anywhere from 2-5 starting baddies remain in the game, but probably more like 3 baddies out of 12 - probably 3. There's also the no-hunt night, where the baddies could technically have picked up another member. I think it is 50/50 as to whether they actually did so or not. So we're looking at 3-4 possible baddies remaining out of 12.
In theory, both a doctor AND a padre are still alive this game. In practice, I'm not sure if that is actually true, but at least one of them should be roaming around. We also have a JL, so they should obviously be in contact.
Priest council is still intact (and presumably 5 strong), and we know at least 2 members (sleepy and Fat Wombat).
Seer council lost 4 members - 1 wolf, 3 villagers. One member was inducted into the council to compensate. So 2 members remain - 1 starting, one otherwise. Culann is one of them.
Guardian council - Wondering if this council was also 5 strong at the start - it might be smaller. 2 people died, so 3 should remain if the council had only 5 members.
If these numbers hold, 10 members would still be in councils. I am not one of them.
@Avernite scanned me Day 0. I used a priest scan on @Witch Agatha and she turned up clear.
I thought he had gotten the seer council to clear her (hadn’t).
Again the wolves were the zombies.
I thought he had gotten the seer council to clear her (hadn’t).
Again the wolves were the zombies.
Known scans:
Liefwarrior - doublescanned. Can only be baddie if turned.
R.Graymarch - seer scanned. Presumably priest scanned yesterday as well, as there was no outing. Assuming that is true, can only be baddie if turned.
Yakman - seer scanned by Avernite. Found clean.
TheFatWombat - seer scanned.
Liefwarrior - doublescanned. Can only be baddie if turned.
R.Graymarch - seer scanned. Presumably priest scanned yesterday as well, as there was no outing. Assuming that is true, can only be baddie if turned.
Yakman - seer scanned by Avernite. Found clean.
TheFatWombat - seer scanned.
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Given the fact that liefwarrior would have to be turned to be a baddie (remember he was scanned while Audren was still alive, so we know for a fact both scans were legit), this seems like a strange vote - especially when we don't know (1) who the hunt target was (if anyone) and (2) if the hunt hit a blessed, cursed, or GA (or if there even was a hunt - a savvy wolfpack might decide to hold a hunt for 1 day to induce paranoia).
Council analysis (curse you, @alxeu, for making me do this...)
I think that each council was likely infected from the start of the game, but only by 1 baddie. I also think that whoever the starting council member is for the seer's council is probably clean. Also think the guardian angel council was infected, probably by the sorc or an unattached cultist.
Reasoning:
Yellow wolf - Matthew - on seer's council.
Unknown orange zealot/cultist (probably zealot, we saw 2 zealots for the yellows) - on priest's council
Unknown unattached baddie - on guardian council.
Which means:
Priest council is still infected
Guardian council is still infected
Seer's council may or may not be infected by new member, but whoever the first starting member is clean.
Does this make sense, or is my logic flawed?
I think that each council was likely infected from the start of the game, but only by 1 baddie. I also think that whoever the starting council member is for the seer's council is probably clean. Also think the guardian angel council was infected, probably by the sorc or an unattached cultist.
Reasoning:
- We know councils can be infected (Matthew flipped wolf).
- We've already seen 5 baddies of the yellow pack die. Only one of them was a council member. Barring a stupidly unbalanced game, that pack has to be eliminated. Which would mean that a yellow was not on the priest's council or guardian council at the start.
- We haven't seen an orange member of any council yet, but we've seen 3 oranges die. Presumably, the oranges have at least one council member remaining. (I'm guessing the other is a lurking assassin; we haven't seen that role yet). The oranges having a starting foothold in the seer's council would be technically possible, but strange, considering they already had first hunt. Unless only one of the seer/priest councils was infected by multiple members and the other was not, which I doubt.
- Apparently, council members can't scan each other for their roles. So seer councils can't scan for wolves, and priest councils can't scan for zealots/cultists/sorcs. Having multiple unscannable roles in a game would be really unbalancing - even 1 or 2 unscannables is fairly broken.
- Having a baddie from either starting pack on the guardian council would be straight up broken - a pack baddie could literally make every GA move worthless by simply informing his pack who the GA was scanning. But some baddie control over the doings of the council is needed - hence the need for a sorc or a cultist on the council, to possibly neuter the effects of the council in the lategame.
Yellow wolf - Matthew - on seer's council.
Unknown orange zealot/cultist (probably zealot, we saw 2 zealots for the yellows) - on priest's council
Unknown unattached baddie - on guardian council.
Which means:
Priest council is still infected
Guardian council is still infected
Seer's council may or may not be infected by new member, but whoever the first starting member is clean.
Does this make sense, or is my logic flawed?
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Another quick point on Yakman - he claims to have (and have used) priestly power, which is an odd thing to claim, since we've already seen one priestly power on the baddie side (Emperor Ike). Another reason why barring a turn, he's a bad lynch.
Also, per the rules, initial members of each council are not cursed - they can be blessed (see Panzer Commader), but not cursed. Which means that for the priest council, we likely have 4 unturnable goodies and 1 baddie remaining.
I think you're broadly right, I'm also leaning on one orange zealot/cultist being on the priest council. I've already informed the JL who I think it is.
Alxeu says he had a formula on how council replacements work. If Matthew was replaced by a baddie to maintain a baddie stake, the replacement on the seer council is evil. Obviously the majority of the players know who that is. It could also be something like first villagers, in that case the replacement is good.
Interesting stuff.
We'll I've said more than enough for now - hopefully there's some value in my scribbings. I'll be on mobile for the rest of the day today with possibly spotty reception, but will try to check in when I can and will hopefully be available-ish for deadline. Good luck, village. Wombat out.
I'll be handing over the reigns as JL spokesperson to Graymarch as I won't be available at deadline. Their word is mine.
Don't read too deeply into this:
Vote Culann
Don't read too deeply into this:
Vote Culann
To make my thoughts at this stage public:
There might be that we are looking at one more orange wolf and one zealot. If Culann is the wolf the remaining zealot gets upgraded. This means that if so a priest scan on Yakman would be useless if it says villager, he cannot be cleared without a new seer scan. Any cultist or sorc surviving would of course die when the wolves do, so less of a priority. A TIE between them with a preference for Culann is my choice for today. Weeding out the priest council next step tomorrow if the game is still on.
Vote Yakman
- I work under the assumption that (1) no one was turned and (2) there aren't any wolves on the priest council (but likely zealot/cultist). 1 because that means chaos in terms of analysis and we still have starting baddies. 2. as a mirror to Matthew on the seer council. We know that there was no cultist or zealot on the original seer council and for the oranges to have someone undetectable on the priest council, this is what makes sense.
- Based on scans and the abovr assumptions there are only three possible candidates for remaining starting wolf(ves) (I assume the one not on a council was cleared last night, so two effectively remain). One is a replacement and one OG, both on the seer council.
- There are only two candidates outside of the priest council left to scan for zealot/cultist/sorcerer status.
There might be that we are looking at one more orange wolf and one zealot. If Culann is the wolf the remaining zealot gets upgraded. This means that if so a priest scan on Yakman would be useless if it says villager, he cannot be cleared without a new seer scan. Any cultist or sorc surviving would of course die when the wolves do, so less of a priority. A TIE between them with a preference for Culann is my choice for today. Weeding out the priest council next step tomorrow if the game is still on.
Vote Yakman
