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Dedonus' main contribution was to suggest marty when ironhide was getting a runaway bandwagon. This helped (together with MAW) to setup the zombies as the only candidates in any real danger. He then also threw down a vote on historydude at 20:58 breaking a tie while setting up ike for another tie. The only argument that I could make here would just be a much weaker version of the argument against MAW, at which point I might as well push MAW. And he still has the 'tried to prevent a tie' factor going in his favour as well.
Yesterday, I clearly stated that I preferred not to tie anyone. My actions are a clear indication of such a mindset, as I attempted to break the tie to prevent it from happening. Obviously in hindsight, I would have been more successful if I had voted Ironhide instead of Historydude, but considering I only had two minutes to react, I think it still shows my anti-tie intention. Furthermore, I was trying to work on a vote count and, while scanning through the votes, I noticed Yakman moving off of Ironhide, which prompted me to panickily switch my vote.

The results of the tie vindicate my position.

I'll wait to see what Team Wombat is going to post, as his prematurely submitted post mentions me.

In the meantime, I'll place a vote on Yakman, as Ike already has two votes. Yakman switching off of Ironhide (onto Ike) caused the original tie that I broke for a short time before Ike voted HistoryDude. Also, I am slightly concerned about the proclivities of the Wizard of MAGAdor towards furniture-shaped mimics and tritons with a dolphin aesthetic.

VOTE Yakman

Also surprised nobody mentioned that Wagon kind of videofanned in his first post after the day 1/night 1 post.
 
Not good result from day 1. I agree with beartjah that MAW seems pretty suspicious for driving Ironhide up so far earlier in the day and helping to ensure that the non-voting players would be the main focal points of voting.

Ike on the surface looks bad for making the tie, but Ike does semi-suspicious things which get him lynched fairly regularly as a villager. Not saying to let him off the hook for it, he could still be a baddie, but he's not going to be my pick for a vote today, at least based on the information known now.

I'm willing to give Cymsdale the benefit of the doubt on marking alxeu rather than Ironhide a known villager. Because whether he's a wolf or a villager the crux of it would be that Cymsdale mixed up alxeu and Ironhide. Which can be the case regardless of Cymsdale's role. His suggestion of lynching the most active players first now is dumb, but I read it as more tongue in cheek than serious suggestion. Vote wise from yesterday he looks worse though, having been involved in pushing Ironhide up pretty high. Yakman's accusation that Cymsdale supported a tie seems unsupported by the evidence though. So not a terrible candidate in my book, but some of the reasons people are suspicion of him are poor.

Mildly suspicious of Wombat for brining up Historydude first as a possible candidate yesterday, but backed off shortly after Dedonus (correctly) pointed out how often Historydude had been used as a scapegoat. Feels like a way for Wombat to muddy the waters and let other players run onto a bad candidate without putting a vote of his own in there.

But the biggest thing to me is definitely Wagonlitz trying to take charge and orchestrate a switch to run-up historydude. For not having voted yet Wagon tries to command a whole vote switch to history dude even as other players are pointing out how likely it was to be a bad idea. Rubs me the wrong way, as does Dedonus (who pointed out how likely it was that lynching historydude would be a bad idea) then jumping on.

I just find all the elements of a switch to an easy scapegoat at almost the last minute to indicate something fishy. The priority close to deadline day 1 should be avoiding a tie, especially if every candidate of consequence is targeted purely for not voting. A confused attempt at a switch while facing pushback is one of the surest ways to end up with a tie day 1, and Wagonlitz has been around long enough to know that.

Vote Wagonlitz
 
Ok, starting from the top!

Beartjah's post
The one time we tried this with aedan and succeeded, he turned out seer. This is also the reason I was opposed to targeting marty early - targeting good analysts early without a good reason tends to end badly for the village.

Caillean's post
Still want an answer to this question.

Alxeu's post
Essentially, this post "locks" the tie between two villagers and an unknown - the three non-voters - ironhide, marty, historydude. There was no serious consideration of a major candidate after his post occurred. IF marty flips villager, this means that the tie was between three villagers - meaning the wolves had incentive to do maximum damage through a tie. IF marty flips wolf/baddie, well... a bunch of people jumped off marty when he got pressure, and they deserve a look.

Dedonus' post
Baffling series of events. When historydude is proposed as an alternative, he initially rejects the switch five minutes before deadline - with logic that I, the original suggester of the switch, agreed with! - and then turns around and immediately votes historydude three minutes later - AFTER ironhide is still the clear favorite. Honestly not sure what he was thinking - it seems to me that he usually keeps a more careful count of the votes than that. Think he should get a close look today - unexpected incompetence from a usually sound player is often a baddie tell, and that may well be the case here.

Ike's post
Seems like a silly decision to semi-snipe here; however, not convinced this is a baddie move - just a foolish one (as witness by his Big Lebowski post). Ike and Yakman, like historydude, both get targeted early a little too often for my liking.

Beartjah's post
Reasonable day 2 case made by beartjah. I'll support putting my brother's feet to the fire here.

I'd be fine with either MAW, alxeu, or dedonus as candidates today. I'll settle on my brother at present.

VOTE MawofDoom
 
So: Curse, apprentice, blessing, or save?

Really not a good result. Also, this literally Oh God, territory. :p

There's a couple of people that tend to just vote-once-and-leave on day 1, regardless of allegiance.


I used my psychic this night, which pinged back 4 baddies. Curse hit then seems unlikely, since that would imply 3 starting baddies in an 18 player game. How can an apprentice lead to a no hunt?


If we had any idea how to that reliably this game would get boring rather quickly :p
Assuming beartjah's post is true (no reason to doubt it isn't), 4 baddies likely means that there were/are 4 original starting baddies, and there was no cursed turn/apprentice turn/other nonsense. So something like a 3 baddie pack, attached sorc?

This also means that the village has a bit of time to figure things out.

Also, both historydude and ironhide were vanilla villagers; culann was an alderman. Probably a low-trait game is my guess.
 
Personal note: Love the activity, wish I had time to read it all.

Today we're packing up and going on our honeymoon. We may have time to read and post tonight, but this morning, definitely not.
 
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used my psychic this night, which pinged back 4 baddies. Curse hit then seems unlikely, since that would imply 3 starting baddies in an 18 player game. How can an apprentice lead to a no hunt?
My bad, apprentices can't lead to no hunts, no.
Was thinking ways baddies could pick up people.

Anyway, 4 baddies indeed suggests it wasn't a pick up, which is good. We're 15 players left, I think, so that leaves 11 villagers and 4 baddies.
until Cymsdale pushes ironhide up to 4 votes when the rest were still on 2.
Then MAW comes along an hour later and pushes it up to five
I agree that that's suspicious.
a day 1 tie is bad idea.
No, it's not. It can give us data, and crucially it can also prevent moronic behaviour like targeting the survivor as they clearly must be a wolf. As such, a day 1 tie in a big often can be good, actually.

How many times have we not had a close race of two villlagers with the survivor then run up the following day as clearly they had to be a wolf who was saved?

Does anyone besides beartjah find @MAWofdoom ’s behavior suspicious?
I do. Pushing up a candidate that far is quite suspicious, and MAW dhlhld know rhat.

Also surprised nobody mentioned that Wagon kind of videofanned in his first post after the day 1/night 1 post.
And if you look closely you'll see it was deliberate.
Just felt too similar to the original to not mention it.

But the biggest thing to me is definitely Wagonlitz trying to take charge and orchestrate a switch to run-up historydude. For not having voted yet Wagon tries to command a whole vote switch to history dude even as other players are pointing out how likely it was to be a bad idea. Rubs me the wrong way, as does Dedonus (who pointed out how likely it was that lynching historydude would be a bad idea) then jumping on.

I just find all the elements of a switch to an easy scapegoat at almost the last minute to indicate something fishy. The priority close to deadline day 1 should be avoiding a tie, especially if every candidate of consequence is targeted purely for not voting. A confused attempt at a switch while facing pushback is one of the surest ways to end up with a tie day 1, and Wagonlitz has been around long enough to know that.
I had voted when I made the switch.
In fact, I believe I was rhe very first to vote day 1.
And a tie day 1 isn't necessarily bad.
You of all people should know that, as you've probably ranted the most of everybody about how stupid people can be when they run up the survivor solely for surviving when a villager died.

Probably a low-trait game is my guess.
I agree.

Personal note: Love the activity, wish I had time to read it all.

Today we're packing up and going on our honeymoon. We may have time to read and post tonight, but this morning, definitely not.
Hope it goes well.


Vote MAW
 
And a tie day 1 isn't necessarily bad.
You of all people should know that, as you've probably ranted the most of everybody about how stupid people can be when they run up the survivor solely for surviving when a villager died.
It's definitely bad to keep running up people who weren't lynched day 1 over accusations of them being saved. That doesn't mean the correct solution is to ensure the death of anyone who gets serious pressure day 1 to prevent them from being run up day 2. That's just ensuring the death of a probable villager faster.
 
Ah, crap. Sorry. I know it’s more work for you haplycats but feel free to ping me on discord also. (Although deadline is in the night for me so might not work anyway)

Vote cymsdale

It has been a long time
You're not in Britain anymore?
 
Well I'm conflicted. My activity list says Wagonlitz, but my wolfdar says beartjah. I'm going to split the difference and

vote Wombat
That makes no sense.
You say you think the meh bear and I are suspicious and then vote Wombat for both apparent reason.
What's your reason for voting the esteemed mammal?
 
Admittedly, my ironhide vote was quite stupid since I didn't realize I was putting him so far above all the other candidates due to knowing I was about to be unavailable. Day 1 having 17 players really messes things up for me since I never play lites. At the time I figured he was a good candidate since he has a more difficult time playing as a baddie, and his inactivity was very unusual in his case. As for wondering if we should tie, that's just what I'm accustomed to doing day 1 and I didn't know to do otherwise.

Cymsdale seems strange to me, though I've never played with them to know whether it's usual behavior or not. They were the first to push ironhide above others, getting ironhide to 4 when the next candidate had 2, and they didn't give any reasoning for their vote switches. Today they encourage voting the active players under the assumption that activity is more common for wolves, which may be true, though I think I tend to hide in the shadows more as a baddie, and I remember noticing the opposite is also true for others such as wagon. It kinda seems like it could be a play to make the village silent until it dies of inactivity and lack of info. Lastly:
Well I'm conflicted. My activity list says Wagonlitz, but my wolfdar says beartjah. I'm going to split the difference and

vote Wombat
This post is strange, just as wagon noticed. You only have heightened suspicion of two players and in between suspicion of another, and go after the in between one? Why?

Vote cymsdale
 
1st Day 2 Votecount
Day 2 Votecount: ~6.5 hours to deadline

MAWofdoom: 3
Beartjah [175]
Team Wombat [183]
Wagonlitz [186]

Emperor Ike: 2
Flockingbird [177]
Yakman [178]

Cymsdale: 2
Marty [188]
MAWofdoom [192]

Yakman: 1
Dedonus [181]

Wagonlitz: 1
Aedan [182]

Team Wombat: 1
Cymsdale [190]

Not Voted: 5
Caillean
Randakar
Emperor Ike
alxeu
Arkasas
 
Yesterday, I clearly stated that I preferred not to tie anyone. My actions are a clear indication of such a mindset, as I attempted to break the tie to prevent it from happening. Obviously in hindsight, I would have been more successful if I had voted Ironhide instead of Historydude, but considering I only had two minutes to react, I think it still shows my anti-tie intention. Furthermore, I was trying to work on a vote count and, while scanning through the votes, I noticed Yakman moving off of Ironhide, which prompted me to panickily switch my vote.

The results of the tie vindicate my position.

I'll wait to see what Team Wombat is going to post, as his prematurely submitted post mentions me.

In the meantime, I'll place a vote on Yakman, as Ike already has two votes. Yakman switching off of Ironhide (onto Ike) caused the original tie that I broke for a short time before Ike voted HistoryDude. Also, I am slightly concerned about the proclivities of the Wizard of MAGAdor towards furniture-shaped mimics and tritons with a dolphin aesthetic.

VOTE Yakman

Also surprised nobody mentioned that Wagon kind of videofanned in his first post after the day 1/night 1 post.
Cheap move
 
(Our internet provider has notified us it will have a crew out here sometime in the 2 hours before deadline, and there may be interruptions in our service—though it should be brief if it happens.)

I’m not entirely happy with my vote on Ike, as I have the impression he may act rashly sometimes?—but switching to Cyms due to their odd actions would make a tie with MAW (at 3 v each) and remove pressure on Ike. Feels like it’s too early for that? (not sure my WW senses are worth heeding). Edit: I mean too early to remove pressure on Ike.

Before I forget, folks, let me know if I’ve misgendered anyone. It takes me awhile to learn (and relearn when I forget).
 
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