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Chapter 44, Whitehall, 26 August 1936
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Eden walked through Whitehall, his usual flair dented by the newspaper posters that seemed to have sprung up everywhere. Baldwin had spared him from any real responsibility but as a member of the Cabinet he wondered, now that the affair had become a scandal and that scandal now risked becoming a full-blown constitutional crisis, what it meant for the National Government.
As ever he thrilled to trot up to the Foreign Office, he nodded genially to the porter and practically bounded up the stairs. Today, the dark portents of the King and Mrs Simpson aside, augured well.
“You may, Foreign Secretary,” Vansittart greeted him with faint amusement, “may wish to consult with the newspapers”.
Eden snorted in derision. “No thank you, I am keeping a politic distance between us and the Palace’s woes.”
With a very slight smile, Vansittart handed Eden a collection of cuttings. “This one is my favourite,” he said with relish, “it is quite the likeness of you”.
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Eden peered at the small print. Vansittart, mischievously, was ready. “It says ‘heah, I say, fair play! You shouldn’t encourage the aggressor, you know. After all, my friend and I aren’t trying to help his victim”.
“Thank you,” Eden said tersely. “Damn that Low!”
“Spain rumbles on, I’m afraid,” Vansittart said pointedly. “Even with Soviet support for our non-intervention plan, there is no sign of the war ending. Heavy shelling against Irun continues, and I have word that an Irish group has formed to fight on behalf of the rebels.”
Eden rolled his eyes. “Is there a nation on this Earth not contemplating involvement in this conflict?”
“Us,” Vansittart said, simply. That earned him an angry look. “Before we go down for the signing, there have been no changes, not even cosmetic ones, overnight. The Admiralty has accepted that Article Seven will give them Alexandria as a port if Malta becomes untenable, the protections of Britons in Egypt are guaranteed.”
“Does it,” Eden wondered aloud, “remove the potential for trouble?”
“I think so, they can take this back to Cairo arguing that it gives them greater autonomy, they get the right to conduct foreign affairs but Lampson remains, we just call him ambassador, and they can’t act in a way which violates the treaty. But it is a virtual blank cheque for us militarily, as British forces, certainly for the next twenty years, will be within a few hours distance of the places where trouble involving risk to the lives of Britons and other Europeans might take place. We can take it for granted that one of our ships will be within a short steaming distance of Egyptian ports. So we have protected our people within Egypt, and there is little risk of intervention by a third power before HMG could intervene.”
Eden nodded. It was all as they had discussed, so many times over the last few months.
They retired to one of the larger chambers for the ceremony, Eden, charmingly, ignoring Lord Halifax and Ramsay MacDonald for the company of Mostafa El-Nahas, the Egyptian Prime Minister. In fluent Arabic he greeted the Egyptian like a long-lost comrade, the Egyptian delighting at the favouritism shown by the elegant Briton. Nahas, a schemer by nature, couldn’t help but push the Englishman on the Simpson Crisis; Vansittart watched, fascinated, as the Foreign Secretary coquettishly laughed away Nahas’ clumsy jibes.
Eden, only slightly irritated by the coarse Arabic utterances at Mrs Simpson's sexual proclivities, continue charmingly in fluent, elegant Arabic. “There was something that you wanted to mention?” With the signatories to the Treaty assembling Eden wanted to get on with the final bits of ‘horse trading’.
“I will shortly be writing formally a diplomatic note,” El-Nahas said, in his earthy Egyptian-Arabic, “that as His Majesty the King of Great Britain, Ireland and the British Dominions…”
“Yes yes,” Eden, usually so diplomatic, was suddenly bored, testily keen to keep the discussion moving.
“…is the first foreign sovereign to be represented in Egypt by an ambassador, that ambassadors from Britain will be considered senior to the other representatives accredited to the Court of His Majesty the King of Egypt.”
Eden doubted, very much, that El-Nahas was being entirely honest here. The usual rule of embassy conduct was that the senior ambassador was, as he had stated, the longest serving emissary; the problem was that upon the longest serving ambassador leaving, the next longest would ‘step up. Eden wondered whether this ingratiating gesture was deliberate or due to a lack of understanding. He simply smiled his thanks. Vansittart, never far away, was trying and failing to hide a smirk after Eden translated for him. “You had other points,” Eden continued to El-Nahas, in his effortlessly polished Arabic.
“We will, as you know, shortly abolish the European Bureau of the Public Security Department. We will, however, retain in the City Police European officers for the next five years. The police will remain under the command of British officers for five years also.”
Eden translated for Vansittart, who shrugged. “Seems fair enough,” the diplomat muttered in reply.
“Given our friendship with Britain, we will generally prefer British subjects as possessing the best qualifications in police positions,” El-Nahas continued.
Vansittart was clearly focussed on the detail, and his eyes narrowed as he spotted an issue. “Sir, if I may, what about the Egyptian Army?”
“We will of course remove British officers from the Egyptian Army,” El-Nahas said quickly, “but will only choose British subjects for foreign instructor roles. We will only send Egyptian officers for training courses in Britain or delivered only by British subjects. We would only use British equipment in our forces so that we do not differ in type or organisation from British forces. We would want you to use your influence to ensure that we are supplied, at the same price as British forces, the equipment that we need.”
Vansittart and Eden exchanged knowing looks. “Thank you, Prime Minister”, Eden said finally, “I look forward to those diplomatic notes”.
There was a commotion around the table as the cameramen arrived to film, and take photographs, of the ceremony. Vansittart, frowning at the disturbance, turned back to El-Nahas. “I would also ask, Prime Minister,” he said firmly, “for your written assurance that you will not support the recent Arab disturbances in Palestine. The situation there is a delicate one, and I would hate for our new alliance to be strained by what could be perceived as an unfriendly action.
The look that Eden gave Vansittart was one of goggle-eyed incredulity. Vansittart was impressed at the swiftness with which his face flushed. Turning back to El-Nahas, the Foreign Secretary muttered something very quickly. “Of course,” El-Nahas said, placidly. Vansittart had no way of knowing what Eden said.
“I did not,” Eden hissed to Vansittart, “begin to translate that outrageous question. Not today, not now. Ah, Edward,” Eden moved off to welcome Lord Halifax and Ramsay Madonald, the other British signatories to the treaty.
“Ah Anthony,” Halifax began, stooping over one of the Egyptians as they exchanged pleasantries. “I would be obliged if you would wemind me of the key pwovisions. I, ah, wecall the gist from Cabinet,” as ever Halifax’s plummy tones meant that the word was uttered as ‘cabinnette’.
“Of course, My Lord,” Eden said grandly. "We remove our military forces from the Egyptian cities to the Suez Canal area, but remain in Sudan unconditionally, the number of our troops in Egypt capped at ten thousand soldiers and four hundred pilots with the staff required for administrative and technical work in peacetime.”
“What about war, or cwisis?”
If Eden was irritated at Halifax' ignorance over a treaty that he was going to put his name to, he didn't show it, and instead smiled soothingly. “During a state of war we have the right to increase the number of forces. The Egyptian government would be required to provide all facilities and assistance to the British forces including the right to use Egyptian ports and airports and roads.”
“A ha.” Halifax was clearly overwhelmed.
Eden again supressed any irritation. “There are some other provisions, the key ones, I suppose out of brevity, being that we have twenty years breathing space. After twenty years from the implementation of this agreement we meet again to determine if the presence of British troops is necessary as the Egyptian army may be able to guarantee shipping in the Suez Canal safely. We also allow them the freedom to make treaties with foreign countries, provided that these are not inconsistent with the provisions of our agreement with them.”
Halifax, silent, appeared to have taken in the information, and was as prepared as he was ever going to be. “Thank you, Anthony, the twavails of this Woyal dwama.”
“I understand, Edward,” Eden said reassuringly. “I have been managing this effort on my own,” he said in matter-of-fact way, with only a suggestion of martyrdom.
They all took their seats, Eden making an elegant speech (in both English and Arabic). He insisted that he and El-Nahas sign first, together, a gesture ruined by El-Nahas’ faffing and bumbling that meant that Eden had to wait for him.
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One by one the dignitaries signed, and then there was the agreement for British forces’ immunities and privileges. Beaming to the camera, Eden basked in the glow. He had achieved something.
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GAME NOTES
Well, I am sorry for the absence; as ever work-related bollocks as the case of the moment blossomed quite dramatically and your humble author had to do some emergency case management. We're back to August 1936, for a very odd moment, the signing of the Anglo-Egyptian Treaty of 1936. This is not a game event, but by God it should be...
The treaty considerations are true to the history, for ease I have had Eden summarise them to Halifax (thank you, Edward VIII!) and El-Nahas really did offer a raft, nay a veritable cloud, of clarificatory notes that seemed designed to ‘butter up’ the British (I find the wonderful note about the HE the British Ambassador being the senior member of the diplomatic community particularly crawling). I can’t work out if El-Nahas, who was probably sharper that my portrayal above, did this as an inexpensive way of soothing the British, or whether he truly believed that this was required for his country. I have also chosen to have the British respond in a very mixed way; some things are real strengths (I would contend, in particular, that continued British domination – if not leadership of the Police force is a real asset for internal control). I think that the British did very, very well here, as Vansittart is quick to realise (his words come straight from the FO assessment). The British are not exactly weak in Egypt, but locking in a (theoretically) more independent nation having given very little away (the ability to conduct limited diplomacy, some curtailment on the protection of Europeans) is a victory. The clarification of forces (around 80 – 85% of the Treaty is focussed on military affairs) and blank cheque for emergencies and war was vital for what followed. But...
...ok, ok, the basis for my niggling frustration is that I hate the way that HOI4 handles the British Empire. I firmly believe that Egypt was, even before the treaty, far more of an independent concern than India. It has its own army (heavily dominated by the British, yes, but still much more of a separate concern than the forces of the Raj), manages more of its domestic affairs, and yet is as integrated into the UK as Jamaica or Malta. India, meanwhile, led by a London appointed Viceroy with a Secretary of State in the Cabinet, is much ‘freer’ in the game, and has, thanks to the ever maniacal focus trees, the ability to wander off as a loosely managed puppet. And as for the Army, this is a farce: Indian Army officers, while nominally of a separate organisation, interracted with their British Army colleagues much more than the Egyptians. At the higher ranks, they came and went within the regular British Army. ‘Indian’ Army divisions contained British Army battalions and yet India is a distinct (puppet) regime. No, no, no.
But now the hypocrisy – “well, Le Jones, why don’t you release Egypt as a puppet? No? You tart, you hypocrite!” I'm ascribing that to @TheButterflyComposer - or something like it. And you’d be right. I get an excuse to achieve parity of dealing with the Empire later, but for now, I do nothing. Let’s move on…
This is another update that clings in its main part to real world events, of course I splashed the newspaper headlines around to remind us all that in this timeline the Egyptian treaty is being signed amidst swirling domestic problems. I was tempted to have the Egyptians play a more scheming role, and make the most of the Regal woes, but that would be unrealistic.
Open surprise at a governor knowing what he's doing and allowing ungentlemenly warfare on his patch.
The spook not bumbling around and easily getting caught, nor being a super sleuth who managed to figure out the Italian torpedo tech and code books by himself.
The whole mission being well planned, executed and concluded without a hitch, and with valuable information.
And then Whitehall sits on it until time stops. *sigh* Whilst I rarely have sympathy for secret agencies, you really have to feel for the poor bastarfs risking life and limb only for their own nations to continually attack them and never use anything they manage to achieve for any good.
Not much to say on the naval side of things as is my wont, but a very welcome slice of derring-do. How much Whitehall will do this this new kernel of information is anyone's guess, of course. But nice to have it.
An interesting little vignette. Butler does get around! He took a risk being such a lubber whilst posing as someone nautical, if not an actual sailor, but got away with it. Given how the breaking of treaties had become such a popular international sport by then, in certain quarters anyway, perhaps it’s not surprising the British didn’t bother complaining. What would it have gained them? A sad situation.
And alas this is what happened, more or less, in OTL. The British went to great efforts to get the information, but as @El Pip says shortly it made no sense to shame a nation you're actively hoping to keep onside if / when Ze Germans get silly. I view the whole saga as a good example of the interwar lack of direction in the UK.
Whether it was planned or just a case of serendipity, HMS Bulldog getting a cameo here is quite apropos, considering what she was most known for IOTL.
It was deliberate - she was in the Western Med at the time, and would should shortly sail for Malta for a spot of maintenance. It is therefore plausible / possible that she was alongside Gib at the time of the Gorizia episode.
I can understand not making a formal protest, by this point Italy has already flounced out of the Second London Naval Treaty so it's not going to achieve anything in treaty terms and as everyone was flexing limits it won't make much difference anywhere else. Italy is still seen as having value as a counter to Germany and keeping them 'on side', or at least not going full on Axis, is probably more valuable than any slight benefit from revealing Mussolini's treaty breaking. After all France and the UK did succeed in keeping Italy neutral until France had basically fallen, so on it's own terms that part of the plan worked, sadly it was one of the few that did.
HOLD THAT THOUGHT - when war comes, later on, the role of Italy is one of the more interesting aspects. In this instance, I kind of agree; and in addition to my "Whitehall faff" point, I suspect it was much to learn about the performance of the ships of a potential adversary than anything else.
I do feel that governors get a a bit of a rum deal in popular imagination. Oh you do get the duds, but mostly they do important if unheralded work and do it well, despite the best attempts of the foreign office to prevent them doing so. Indeed I also believe that most governors feel that the real "enemy" they have to face is not whatever immediate local situation they have in front of them, but the foreign office and whichever rhubarb is currently Secretary of State. So it was nice to see one given a chance to shine, if at once remove.
Harington Harington was an interesting character; his quiet, sleepy world became mad in '36 with the SCW, the hilarious Med cruise of Haile Selassie and the rise of Italy. His obsession with Haile Selassie aside (the urgent cables to London on the topic are hilarious), I think that he was a decent administrator; just the right amount of G&S-esque uniform wearing, with some initiative and political resolve.
Very nice, I couldn't tell which way things would go as the door was being opened, luckily for our heroes the Italians kept to their usual level of competence.![]()
One has to feel bad for the Italian navy, they were not particulary good shots and could be lax at times, but they displayed valor and agressive tactics during the war... and had some absolutely beautiful ships!
if not for a fatal lack of oil, the Italian Navy might have proved itself to be a formidable foe. But... if Germany, Japan or Italy had possessed a ready supply of oil the history of that century would be vastly different.
And actually funding their radar scientist. And better fire control. And reliable shell factories. And different leadership. And some sort of co-operation between air and sea. And different tactics. And better morale. And not having orders that torpedoes were 'too expensive to fire'. And ideally not fighting the Royal Navy, but only the French which all their tactics, strategy and ship building had been focused on.
Fuel shortages might not even make their top 10 problems now I think about it. Italy managed plenty of sorties and operations in the first two years of the war, they just didn't have much success when they did leave port, though they did manage some. It wasn't till late in '42 that fuel became a problem and the die had long since been cast by then.
Ah, Italy. You're right about their ships, they still do style (perhaps stereotypically) very well! As for WW2, Italy was a regional power with a great power mentality; in so many areas, as you highlight, she was just not 'up there' with the big boys. I like and agree with the list, perhaps adding that she was tethered to an ally who didn't share her geopolitical and strategic goals, who didn't really consult (and who wasn't consulted) on strategic decisions and whose operational style was, well, slightly different.
But ultimately? Her government just wasn't self aware and waged a war that she wasn't even remotely ready for.
And I'm wondering how we might utilise this resource for the betterment of aarkind. Recent and past threads have demonstrated a strong thirst for topic threads on the writing process, aars, ideas, narratives and all that stuff. Should there be a separate thread somewhere for the prompt list so we can continue to add to it (even post short story/rough drafts of ideas) and talk about stuff like that and just have a general natter, much like the old bAAR system? Or is it a product of this thread that would die swiftly if I foolishly tore it out?
I actually love this idea.
Italy's problems aren't germany's, true. They're under no real threat from Russia, the allies at least speak to them even if they don't like them, and they have a colonial empire. It's shit, but it does/will have oil. Eventually. And all their neighbours are weak or French, so they're basically playing on easy mode, so long as they don't deliberately muck it up for themselves...
Oh bugger - started writing the above and then this. Well, you're right.
Just caught up reading through all the updates. Great writing and coverage of events and working through the game-play vs good, believable story.![]()
Thank you, as ever, mon brave.
Avoid that and it probably goes like Franco Spain - not a nice place but nothing blatantly and publiclly horrific, propped up by US money post-war as it's anti-communist and then a return to democracy when the leader dies.
A fascinating 'what if', and one with which I agree. Italy has a more, arguably, to offer the US / NATO - it's a constitutional monarchy - so possibly more stable, has a bigger empire than Spain, hasn't gone through a destructive civil war. Quite an intriguing thought mon brave.
Not sure how much oil Italy can get out of Albania in HOI4? I don't recall it being amazing without supplementing it with foreign exports or Libya. At least, not enough to keep up with a mobile land army and a navy burning fuel. But in game, it is very easy for Italy to take over the balkans, get Spain in an alliance or take their med islands, and Turkey as well. Then stay out of every war unless and until the amercians show up, and just pick their side as per usual.
I am in no way surprised. That sort of alternate history would be the wrong-sort-of-fun so obviously Paradox wouldn't include it.
Well, I would say they seem obsessed with adding in as many royalist factions as possible to every country they update so...I wouldn't be surprised if they did. I hope at least a mod is working on it.
I'm rapidly fed up with the increasingly erratic focus trees, more like a drunken teenager joyriding a stolen Vauxhall Corsa on a deprived small town estate than a logical alternative history. I've bought, but not played, the latest Balkany / Turkey one.
No, a strong industrial base was not a necessity for an effective Italian fleet, just a necessity for rapidly replacing losses and maintaining naval strength. France and the Soviet Union had a stronger industrial base and arguably no better a navy, and Japan's navy was far stronger on an equivalent or weaker base.
Radar would have been nice to have, but really no-one but Britain did, and both German and Japanese navies managed to fight effectively without it - at least for a while.
Italian fire control was apparently quite good, at least on the 'Littorio' class. Apparently, shell quality-control was to blame for the inaccuracy... but while we could look at British issues with shells cracking rather than penetrating, or German and American issues with fuzing, we can just say that most navies had issues of some sort or another. As for different leadership... they didn't do badly considering they were not able to do a lot of training or make many sorties (see 'lack of oil'). It's true they didn't want to risk the big ships, but you are conflating British strategy with Italian. Britain needed the Italians to come out and fight and lose - the Italians were not well-served by doing that.
And as for leadership - read up on the actions of the light forces. A lot of Italian units fought hard and well, though the men weren't gung-ho for the war.
No, I don't agree that Italy needed all of those things you list. I do think the single most necessary thing was a steady oil supply, making naval operations more frequent, giving operational experience and enabling larger components to be used. Britain would still have won but they'd have needed a lot more forces in the Med, I think. I won;t argue that Italy's navy was good - just that, with sufficient oil, it would have performed better.
There is a difference between shells that don't always do their job when they hit and shells you struggle to even achieve a hit with. One seems much worse than the other.
You are trying to have you cake and eat it. Or perhaps bunker your oil and burn it. Italy was either not coming out to fight due to strategy (fleet in being, etc) or wanted to come out more but couldn't (lack of oil). It can't be both and I think it was neither;
Take Vittorio Veneto. Commissioned and operational August 1940 and straight out to attack Convoy MB.3, then sortieing after the British fleet, then out again in October after MB.5 Then in November the Italian Fleet got Tarranto-ed (that is a verb right?). Veneto went out to fight the Battle of Cape Spartivento in December, shortly after Giulio Cesare got bombed by the RAF and put into dock for a few months and Veneto was the only operational battleship Italy had left. But stil she went out to intercept Force H in February '41. Battle of Cape Matapan was March and it took until August for her to be repaired, but then straight back out to try and intercept the British fleet. Then in September trying to attack the Operation Halbeard convoy, a few more sorties later in the year and then getting torpedoed by HMS Urge in Decemeber and out for repairs until early '42, then straight out to try and attack the Op Vigorous convoy in June.
My point is that the Italian fleet seemed busy enough, lots of sorties made and sailing out. Now I accept that having so much of the fleet in dry dock after Taranto made it easier to spread the fuel around the few available units, but for the early years of the war fuel shortages do not appear to be that much of a limiting factor. Middle of 1942 things do change, fuel shortages do start to bite, but in the early years there is enough stocks to enable a lot of operations. That so many sorties end in nothing is in large part because the aerial recon and naval intelligence keep letting them down and fail to find the enemy (and in fairness the RAF also often fail to find the Italians either).
With some radar, better co-ordination with the air force, better tactics around scouting with light units all those sorties might have achieved something, instead a lot of fuel was spent sailing around failing to even make contact.
I'm well aware of their and exploits and I see them as proof of how bad the leadership and morale in the main fleet was. As you say Italian sailors could and did fight well in some units, so the fact that so many did not points to failures in the leadership of the main fleet. Had the light units attached to the fleet shown the same aggression and flair as the MAS forces you'd expect the set piece naval battles to have gone better.
@El Pip -
You have it exactly back-ways round. You cannot be a credible fleet-in-being if you never come out and fight. And choosing a strategy for reasons of strength and oil reserves doesn't mean you'd choose the same one if you had more oil.
I'm on the "oil would've helped, but wouldn't have resisted O'Connor, or stopped the Russians, or persuaded Franco to let them try for Gib" faction.
The bAAR just reopened, by the way.
Oooooh. Thank you!
One of his problems appears to be that he lacks a trusted advisor. he has friends/sycophants in the Belvedere Set and he has inherited his fathers advisors, but it appears he has no-one he trusts and believes who will tell him what he needs to be told but doesn't want to hear. If Duff Cooper did decide to side with parliament and the country told the King "It is love or duty, in this instance you cannot have both." I doubt the King would listen and the result would be cutting his ties with Duff Cooper not a change in the King's thinking.
To be fair I've read that Wallace would also have been prepared to settle as a mistress as even she could see the problems, so if even she couldn't tell him the hard truth I think this is just a fundamental problem with Edward.
She absolutely would, as I hope that I have portrayed, have been prepared to be a mistress. Any attempt for something more formal came, both here and in OTL, from the King.
AAR prompt, heal the divide between both sides of the fuel strategy debate.
I intended to post tomorrow, but I saw the AAR signal in the sky and knew my duty. And also, the wife is watching Strictly. (shudders)
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